The SBNation Fantasy 2013 Fantasy Draft Guide

Transcription

1 The SBNation Fantasy 2013 Fantasy Draft Guide Jason Chilton, Editor 1

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Big Boards Overview.... Big Board PPR Leagues Big Board Non-PPR Leagues Player Rankings Overview Player Rankings Quarterbacks. Player Rankings Running Backs. Player Rankings Wide Receivers. Player Rankings Tight Ends Player Rankings Team Defenses. Player Rankings Kickers The Last Word

3 FOREWORD Welcome to the 2013 SBNation Fantasy Guide! While others in your league wasted their hard-earned dollars on glossy mags that came out in mid-july and are still touting Percy Harvin as a #1 WR, you shrewdly waited for the best Guide in the business with up-to-the-moment data and evaluations and you got it for free! Your season is off to a good start. You ll notice that the rankings in this Guide don t correspond exactly to the position rankings that you ll find on the SBNation.com/Fantasy site. That s for the simple reason that no two Fantasy minds are ever going to think exactly alike. For that matter, YOU shouldn t base your entire draft strategy on a single person s thoughts or cheat sheets, but use them as a starting point in forming your own opinions about player value. This guide aims to help you think about that value in a systematic way. The Big Boards up front present a super cheat sheet approach that ranks players while also comparing players across different positions to help you decide who offers the most relative value when it s your turn to pick. The Player Rankings explain WHY the each player earned the slot he did on the Big Board. They also aim to provide enough data, thought process and schedule analysis for you to fully understand each ranking and decide if you agree with where that player stands relative to his peers. Draft day shapes your team but your work doesn t end there. To bring home a title you ll need to make smart decisions all season long on everything from start/sit choices to trades to waiver wire selections. And you re in luck! SBNation.com/Fantasy will be your one-stop shop all season long for analysis, advice and live War Room chats to keep your team honed to a razor s edge. We hope you enjoy this Guide now study up and get ready pick some winners. Happy Drafting, Jason 3

4 BIG BOARDS The Big Board is designed to help you make smart, quick decisions in every round of your Fantasy draft. It s set up in the same way that many NFL teams construct their own boards on Draft Day it assigns round grades to each player and puts positions side by side to help you understand not only which player to take at a certain position, but which players at other positions have equivalent values based on positional scarcity and how much each player is likely to score over and above the players that will be available later in the draft. The idea is that you d only take a player from Round 3 on the Big Board if all the players from Round 2 are gone. As your draft progresses, if you take three running backs in your first three selections it may be wise to pick another position even if there s a higher-rated back on the board. Likewise, if your league allows flexible lineups with, say, one back and three receivers, you may want to get one stud back and the load up on receivers since there are more high-scoring receivers than backs in PPR leagues. But on the whole, sticking to the Big Board should help you land a deep and talented squad while finding value in every round. As a note, both Big Boards (PPR and non-ppr) are designed with a twelve-team league in mind. Additionally, both assume a standard four points per TD pass for QBs. If your league awards six, move each QB up a round and work hard to get Rodgers, Brees or Manning ESPECIALLY if it s also a non-ppr league where QBs will dwarf everyone else in scoring. Top Tier #1 Starter #2 Starter #3/Flex #4 - Depth #5 - Fliers Handcuffs True difference-makers at their position. Grab all of these guys you can. Guys who can carry the load as your #1 starter at a position. Quality starters who are a cut below the #1 slot. Not every-week starters, but good flex and spot-start options with upside. Receivers best suited for depth and bye-week fill-in work. Late-round guys with the upside to become more than waiver-wire fodder. Players with a starter in front of them who may be more valuable if you own that starter. 4

5 Big Board 12 Team PPR Leagues ROUND 1 Doug Martin Calvin Johnson Adrian Peterson Dez Bryant C.J. Spiller Demaryius Thomas Jamaal Charles LeSean McCoy Trent Richardson Ray Rice Matt Forte Alfred Morris ROUND 2 Aaron Rodgers Marshawn Lynch A.J. Green Jimmy Graham Arian Foster Brandon Marshall Reggie Bush Julio Jones Steven Jackson Andre Johnson Chris D. Johnson Maurice Jones-Drew ROUND 3 Peyton Manning Stevan Ridley Larry Fitzgerald Darren Sproles Randall Cobb Eddie Lacy Victor Cruz DeMarco Murray Vincent Jackson Lamar Miller Roddy White Frank Gore ROUND 4 Drew Brees David Wilson Marques Colston Rob Gronkowski Darren McFadden Dwayne Bowe Jason Witten Giovanni Bernard Danny Amendola Ahmad Bradshaw Pierre Garcon Reggie Wayne ROUND 5 Cam Newton Montee Ball Hakeem Nicks Vernon Davis Tom Brady Shane Vereen Jordy Nelson Tony Gonzalez Robert Griffin III Le'Veon Bell Wes Welker Antonio Brown ROUND 6 Andrew Luck Ryan Mathews Mike Wallace Matthew Stafford Chris Ivory Torrey Smith Colin Kaepernick Andre Brown Cecil Shorts Tony Romo Daryl Richardson Eric Decker ROUND 7 Russell Wilson Mark Ingram DeSean Jackson Greg Olsen Matt Ryan Ben Tate Josh Gordon Jermichael Finley DeAngelo Williams Golden Tate T.Y. Hilton Mike A. Williams James Jones Steve L. Smith ROUND 8 Michael Vick Rashard Mendenhall Tavon Austin Kyle Rudolph Bryce Brown Vincent Brown Bernard Pierce Steve Johnson Kenny Britt Anquan Boldin Miles Austin Greg Jennings 5

6 ROUND 9 Eli Manning Danny Woodhead Michael Floyd Jordan Cameron SEA Isaiah Pead Emmanuel Sanders Jared Cook Knowshon Moreno Lance Moore Ryan Broyles Kenbrell Thompkins ROUND 10 Jay Cutler Isaiah Pead Kendall Wright Owen Daniels HOU Christine Michael Alshon Jeffery Fred Davis CHI Jacquizz Rodgers Ryan Broyles Brian Hartline ROUND 11 Andy Dalton Vick Ballard DeAndre Hopkins Antonio Gates CIN Matt Schaub Jonathan Stewart Rueben Randle STL Isaac Redman Sidney Rice Darius Heyward-Bey ROUND 12 Sam Bradford Shonn Greene Justin Blackmon Dwayne Allen GB Michael Bush Cordarrelle Patterson Brandon Myers NE Joseph Randle Aaron Dobson Fred Jackson ROUND 13 Josh Freeman Roy Helu Mohamed Sanu Martellus Bennett CLE Johnathan Franklin Malcom Floyd Tyler Eifert DEN Bilal Powell Kenny Stills BAL ROUND 14 Ryan Tannehill Stepfan Taylor Robert Woods Julius Thomas ARI Alex D. Smith Daniel Thomas Denarius Moore Brandon Pettigrew MIA Carson Palmer Knile Davis ROUND 15 Ben Roethlisberger Brandon Jackson Markus Wheaton PIT Toby Gerhart Jarrett Boykin CAR LaMichael James Donnie Avery NYJ Jeremy Kerley Brice Butler ROUND 16 KICKERS!!!!! KICKERS EVERYWHERE!!!!! 6

7 Big Board 12 Team Non-PPR Leagues ROUND 1 Doug Martin Calvin Johnson Adrian Peterson C.J. Spiller Trent Richardson LeSean McCoy Alfred Morris Marshawn Lynch Jamaal Charles Arian Foster Matt Forte Stevan Ridley ROUND 2 Aaron Rodgers Chris D. Johnson Dez Bryant Jimmy Graham Ray Rice Demaryius Thomas Maurice Jones-Drew Julio Jones Steven Jackson A.J. Green Eddie Lacy Brandon Marshall ROUND 3 Peyton Manning Frank Gore Andre Johnson Rob Gronkowski Drew Brees DeMarco Murray Vincent Jackson Cam Newton Lamar Miller Larry Fitzgerald Reggie Bush Randall Cobb Victor Cruz ROUND 4 Tom Brady Ahmad Bradshaw Marques Colston Vernon Davis Robert Griffin III Montee Ball Roddy White Andrew Luck David Wilson Dwayne Bowe Matthew Stafford Le'Veon Bell Pierre Garcon ROUND 5 Colin Kaepernick Giovanni Bernard Jordy Nelson Jason Witten Tony Romo Darren McFadden Torrey Smith Tony Gonzalez Chris Ivory Hakeem Nicks Mark Ingram Mike Wallace ROUND 6 Russell Wilson Andre Brown Cecil Shorts Matt Ryan Ryan Mathews Danny Amendola Daryl Richardson Reggie Wayne Ben Tate DeSean Jackson Rashard Mendenhall Golden Tate Josh Gordon ROUND 7 Darren Sproles Eric Decker Greg Olsen DeAngelo Williams Antonio Brown Shane Vereen Mike A. Williams Bernard Pierce Wes Welker James Jones ROUND 8 Michael Vick Bryce Brown T.Y. Hilton Jermichael Finley SEA Knowshon Moreno Steve L. Smith Kyle Rudolph Isaac Redman Tavon Austin Kenny Britt Miles Austin 7

8 ROUND 9 Eli Manning Jonathan Stewart Vincent Brown Jordan Cameron SF Christine Michael Steve Johnson Jared Cook Isaiah Pead Anquan Boldin Greg Jennings Michael Floyd ROUND 10 Jay Cutler Vick Ballard Lance Moore Owen Daniels HOU Danny Woodhead Chris Givens CHI Kenbrell Thompkins Emmanuel Sanders Alshon Jeffery Ryan Broyles ROUND 11 Andy Dalton Shonn Greene Kendall Wright Fred Davis CIN Matt Schaub Jacquizz Rodgers DeAndre Hopkins Antonio Gates STL Brian Hartline Rueben Randle ROUND 12 Sam Bradford Michael Bush Sidney Rice Brandon Myers GB Fred Jackson Justin Blackmon Dwayne Allen NE Joseph Randle Cordarrelle Patterson Darius Heyward-Bey ROUND 13 Ryan Tannehill Roy Helu Aaron Dobson Martellus Bennett CLE Johnathan Franklin Mohamed Sanu Tyler Eifert DEN Bilal Powell Malcom Floyd Julius Thomas ROUND 14 Josh Freeman Stepfan Taylor Robert Woods Brandon Pettigrew BAL Alex D. Smith Brandon Jackson Denarius Moore ARI Daniel Thomas Markus Wheaton MIA ROUND 15 Carson Palmer Knile Davis Kenny Stills Jermaine Gresham PIT Ben Roethlisberger Toby Gerhart Jarrett Boykin CAR LaMichael James Donnie Avery NYJ ROUND 16 KICKERS!!!!! KICKERS EVERYWHERE!!!!! 8

9 PLAYER RANKINGS The Player Rankings section goes into detail on how we ranked every player. The Player Writeup explains our thought process and outlook on each guy s prospects for the upcoming season. Additionally, each ranking includes a range of information to help you make decisions on who to target. These rankings are presented in the order we d draft these players in a PPR league with six points for rushing/receiving TDs and a point for every 10 yards rushing/receiving. The non- PPR Big Board ranks players in the proper order for the same scoring system minus points for catches, but if your league has any other scoring quirks make sure to factor them in when finalizing your own rankings. On the next page, the various stats and figures presented in each ranking are broken down in detail. 9

10 PLAYER RANKINGS - KEY Players are sorted into colorcoded tiers in the rankings pages as well as on the Big Board. Each player s stats from the last two seasons are presented, as well as their projections for Each player represents a unique combination of risk and reward. The Player component measures how likely a player s talent and injury odds are to let him hit his projected stats. The System component measures the other factors in a player s success everything from quality OL to the talent of a receiver s QB to competition for snaps. Finally, Upside measures the likelihood that a player will exceed his base case statistical projection. In each category, the higher the number the better. Aaron Rodgers Top Passing Rushing QB Tier Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 5 Packers System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 13 Rodgers struggled in 2012 to deliver the kind of insane efficiency he's become known for, thanks in no small part to a wheels-off offensive line and a gimpy WR corps. The line could still be shaky, but Rodgers' otherworldly talent and the Pack's plethora of weapons keeps him in the top spot. Don't over-draft him, however - there's seldom been a deeper year at the QB position. SF WAS CIN BYE DET BAL CLE MIN CHI PHI NYG MIN DET ATL DAL PIT CHI Peyton Manning Top Passing Rushing QB Tier Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 5 Broncos System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 13 Manning silenced his doubters last season with a virtuoso performance. Reports have him GAINING arm strength this offseason, and the addition of quality Wes Welker of the to the opponents pass-catching they ll corps be gives facing. Manning QBs a borderline are measured unfair set against of weapons. an Combine that with a commitment to run opponent s more up-tempo overall and a projected hilariously soft pass schedule defense of opposing rating. pass Running defenses back and you've stats got are a recipe to challenge for calculated based on run defense the league's quality best (for fantasy ground QB. stats) and the coverage BAL NYG OAK PHI DAL JAC IND WAS BYE SD KC NE KC TEN SD HOU OAK ability of a defense s linebacker corps (for passing stats). Receivers are Drew Brees QB Saints Each player s scoring total for each week of the season is projected based on the measured against a combination of overall pass defense and the quality of the corner(s) they are most likely to face, while Tight Ends are measured against overall pass defense quality as well as linebacker and safety coverage ratings. Top Passing Rushing Tier Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk System Risk Upside 3 10

11 QUARTEACKS 11

12 Aaron Rodgers Top Passing Rushing QB Tier Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 5 Packers System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 13 Rodgers struggled in 2012 to deliver the kind of insane efficiency he's become known for, thanks in no small part to a wheels-off offensive line and a gimpy WR corps. The line could still be shaky, but Rodgers' otherworldly talent and the Pack's plethora of weapons keeps him in the top spot. Don't over-draft him, however - there's seldom been a deeper year at the QB position. SF WAS CIN BYE DET BAL CLE MIN CHI PHI NYG MIN DET ATL DAL PIT CHI Peyton Manning Top Passing Rushing QB Tier Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 5 Broncos System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 13 Manning silenced his doubters last season with a virtuoso performance. Reports have him GAINING arm strength this offseason, and the addition of Wes Welker to the pass-catching corps gives Manning a borderline unfair set of weapons. Combine that with a commitment to run more up-tempo and a hilariously soft schedule of opposing pass defenses and you've got a recipe to challenge for the league's best fantasy QB. BAL NYG OAK PHI DAL JAC IND WAS BYE SD KC NE KC TEN SD HOU OAK Drew Brees Top Passing Rushing QB Tier Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 5 Saints System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 12 The return of Sean Payton lends a decided "getting the band back together" feel to this Saints' season, and many expect their offense to wreck the league like the Bluesmobile in a shopping mall. But the Saints are actually facing a fairly stout slate of pass defenses this season, and there are reasons to be nervous on the offensive front. Brees' greatness will keep the Saints flying high, but he may not outperform his peers to the degree that some are expecting. ATL TB ARI MIA CHI NE BYE BUF NYJ DAL SF ATL SEA CAR STL CAR TB Cam Newton Top Passing Rushing QB Tier Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 4 Panthers System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 12 Despite struggles with consistency as a passer, Cam Newton's live arm and even live-er legs have made him a Top 5 scoring QB in each of his first two seasons. Carolina made a move AWAY from the read-option in the latter part of last season, and Newton responded with crisper passing and actually improved his running production to boot. It's not clear exactly what to expect from Carolina this season, but it's become a very good bet that Newton will find a way to score in bunches. SEA BUF NYG BYE ARI MIN STL TB ATL SF NE MIA TB NO NYJ NO ATL

13 Tom Brady Passing Rushing #1 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 5 Patriots System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 12 Offseason jitters about the Pats' almost entirely-rebuilt air attack are subsiding by the day. Brady has a target lock on new acquisition Danny Amendola, Gronkowski may avoid the PUP list, while new targets like Kenbrell Thompkins and Shane Vereen will help pick up the slack. While Brady won't reach the heights of his last couple of seasons, he's still a great option as your QB1. BUF NYJ TB ATL CIN NO NYJ MIA PIT BYE CAR DEN HOU CLE MIA BAL BUF Robert Griffin Passing Rushing #1 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 3 Redskins 2011 DID NOT PLAY 0 System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 11 RGIII was a revelation last season, and only injury could stop him. His recovery and how the Redskins will handle him upon his return is one of Fantasy's biggest storylines - we think he'll be just fine. There are things we aren't privy to on the state of the art injury recovery these days, but the cross-sports evidence is overwhelming that injuries don't mean what they used to. Griffin will run less, throw more, take advantage of full seasons from Pierre Garcon and Fred Davis, and exploit an easy schedule to be among the position's best. PHI GB DET OAK BYE DAL CHI DEN SD MIN PHI SF NYG KC ATL DAL NYG Andrew Luck Passing Rushing #1 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 4 Colts 2011 DID NOT PLAY 0 System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 10 Many pundits look askance at Luck's so-so efficiency as a rookie and project something of a sophomore slump - don't believe it. Luck was in a deep-ball offense with young weapons everywhere and a laughable OL - that's not a recipe for Tom Brady-style pitch and catch. Luck's line will be vastly improved, his weapons are upgraded through experience and the addition of stud receiving back Ahmad Bradshaw. Look for him to take the next step into the league's elite this season. OAK MIA SF JAC SEA SD DEN BYE HOU STL TEN ARI TEN CIN HOU KC JAC Colin Kaepernick #1 QB Passing Rushing QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 5 49ers System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 13 Once Kaepernick took the reins in mid-season, he started laying a beatdown on the league that rivaled what RGIII was up to in Washington. How defenses adapt to the read option is the BIGGEST story in Fantasy this year - and we think the read option will be just fine. It's not a Wildcat gimmick, but a fully integrated offensive approach. Kaepernick won't be running wild like he did in last year's playoffs, but he can get 500 yards on the ground by accident while his phenomenal arm strength and accuracy do the rest. Don't bet against him. GB SEA IND STL HOU ARI TEN JAC BYE CAR NO WAS STL SEA TB ATL ARI

14 Matthew Stafford #1 QB Passing Rushing QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 4 Lions System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 10 There are real questions about how good a QB Matt Stafford can be when he's not throwing to the game's ultimate superweapon, and his survivability on 700+ dropbacks with a Riley Reiff/Jason Fox tackle tandem is also up for debate. But tremendous volume + Calvin Johnson = a very high floor, and the ceiling starts to look better if Stafford can raise his game a bit while taking advantage of improved targets like Reggie Bush and Ryan Broyles. MIN ARI WAS CHI GB CLE CIN DAL BYE CHI PIT TB GB PHI BAL NYG MIN Tony Romo Passing Rushing #1 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 4 Cowboys System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 9 Romo enjoyed a stat-jack last season, but was less efficient and more volume-dependent as the Dallas run game collapsed. The plan this season is to lean more on the run game... and that plan will fail. Dallas' OL is already a M*A*S*H unit, and rookie TE Gavin Escobar has looked worthless in the preseason. It'll be 3 wides and 600+ attempts for Romo yet again, but the efficiency will see an uptick thanks to rookie WR Terrance Williams and the devastating Dez Bryant. Waiting a round or two and grabbing Romo could pay big dividends this year - he'll hang right with his more highly drafted peers. NYG KC STL SD DEN WAS PHI DET MIN NO BYE NYG OAK CHI GB WAS PHI Russell Wilson Passing Rushing #1 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 4 Seahawks System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 11 Many had high hopes for Russell Wilson, but few people envisioned him taking the reins in his first game as a rookie. Fewer still expected the kind of second-half explosion the Seattle offense generated once more read-option looks took advantage of Wilson's legs and his prodigious ability to exploit the space they opened up in the rest of the defense. The loss of Percy Harvin hurts a bit, but he's got the same cast that helped him take the league by storm as a rook - Wilson will be just fine. CAR SF JAC HOU IND TEN ARI STL TB ATL MIN BYE NO SF NYG ARI STL Matt Ryan Passing Rushing #1 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 4 Falcons System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 11 Matt Ryan took the step his fans had been waiting on last season, as an up-tempo passing attack played to his strengths and generated plenty of chances for weapons like Jones, White and Gonzalez to thrive. Adding a strong receiving back like Steven Jackson is a plus, but Ryan has to contend with a schedule with far fewer cupcake secondaries than last year's slate. That plus an iffy right tackle situation give you pause, but Ryan's slot at the bottom of the QB1 tier is less an indictment of him than an endorsement of the overall riches at the position. NO STL MIA NE NYJ BYE TB ARI CAR SEA TB NO BUF GB WAS SF CAR

15 Eli Manning Passing Rushing #2 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 4 Giants System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 11 Manning's virtuoso performance in the face of relentless pressure in 2011 was pretty amazing, but the odds - and injuries in the WR corps - caught up to him last season. The OL still doesn't look terrific, but a healthy-ish Hakeem Nicks with a strong backstop in Rueben Randle should give Manning more places to go with the ball this year. He'll bounce back and provides an outstanding tandem-start option, either as insurance for RGIII or in a rotation with Mike Vick or Andy Dalton. DAL DEN CAR KC PHI CHI MIN PHI BYE OAK GB DAL WAS SD SEA DET WAS Michael Vick Passing Rushing #2 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 2 Eagles System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 10 While Vick has explosive potential with Chip Kelly in town, it's important to accurately assess where his points will come from. The threat of the run from Kelly's QB's has typically been more vital to the offense than their actual running, so don't expect a 700+ yard bonanza on the ground. His arm strength will play up on bombs to DeSean Jackson, but his intermittent accuracy won't let him fully exploit the offense's quick passing opportunities. With all that said, he'll be a frequent threat for QB1-level scoring while he's healthy and in the drivers' seat for Philly. Questions about in the QB2 market this year, so a high-impact dice roll isn't a bad option. WAS SD KC DEN NYG TB DAL NYG OAK GB WAS BYE ARI DET MIN CHI DAL Jay Cutler Passing Rushing #2 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 4 Bears System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 11 Jay Cutler is actually the QB that many people think Tony Romo is. In fairness, Cutler's one of the few QBs who's had even worse protection than Romo and took a merciless while running a deep shot offense behind a vile OL. New coach Marc Trestman is a savvier offensive operator, and the Bears' new OL might be average - a drastic improvement. With reasonable protection and some non- Brandon Marshall options (if he chooses to use them), Cutler can be a solid QB2 with spot-start potential. CIN MIN PIT DET NO NYG WAS BYE GB DET BAL STL MIN DAL CLE PHI GB Andy Dalton Passing Rushing #2 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 3 Bengals System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 10 Matthew Stafford without the big arm, Andy Dalton has been dependent on the wildly talented A.J. Green to maintain viability as a QB in fantasy (or on the field, for that matter). While we're not doing backflips over Dalton's talent, he's got the chance to take a statistical step forward as the Bengals have added intriguing talent in Tyler Eifert and Giovanni Bernard to go along with a (hopefully) full season from Mohamed Sanu. Behind a strong OL, Dalton should have the tools to be a solid QB2. CHI PIT GB CLE NE BUF DET NYJ MIA BAL CLE BYE SD IND PIT MIN BAL

16 Sam Bradford Passing Rushing #2 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 3 Rams System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 10 Sam Bradford hasn't done a ton to justify his #1 pick status so far, but 1999 Kurt Warner would have had trouble getting much out of the 2011 and 2012 Rams. Jake Long's arrival kicks Roger Saffold to RT and improves two spots on the OL, and Bradford suddenly has an intriguing cast of weapons despite the loss of do-it-all runner Steven Jackson. His division slate is unappealing, but Bradford has some attractive matchups that guys like Tavon Austin and Jared Cook can help him exploit. ARI ATL DAL SF JAC HOU CAR SEA TEN IND BYE CHI SF ARI NO TB SEA Ryan Tannehill Passing Rushing #2 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 3 Dolphins 2011 DID NOT PLAY 0 System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 8 Tannehill simply wasn't ready to be a full-time starter as a rookie, but he turned in a game effort that mixed some solid moments in with the expected hide-your-eyes throws. In his second year he's got a cast of weapons that looks lively outside, headlined by FA acquisition Mike Wallace, but distinctly lacks a middle-of-the-field security blanket with the loss of Dustin Keller. His protection may be spotty, but if it holds up Tannehill has the arm and wheels to post some solid weeks. CLE IND ATL NO BAL BYE BUF NE CIN TB SD CAR NYJ PIT NE BUF NYJ Josh Freeman Passing Rushing #2 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 2 Buccaneers System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 9 Freeman looked to have left his sophomore slump behind for much of 2012 before a spectacular faceplant down the stretch. He's an extremely high-beta selection this year. If he gets back to his early 2012 (or even 2010) form, he can flirt with QB1 stats in many weeks. If he starts giving the ball to the other team, it's hard to think Greg Schiano will give him a long leash depite public proclamations of support - there's no question the Bucs' third-round selection of Mike Glennon was the real message. NYJ NO NE ARI BYE PHI ATL CAR SEA MIA ATL DET CAR BUF SF STL NO Matt Schaub Passing Rushing #2 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 3 Texans System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 9 Matt Schaub's upside is firmly capped by a run-heavy offense. With that said, there's a lot to like about him as a backup option this season. He's got three legitimate targets for the first time in a while, and the run game may sputter enough to require some extra passing while still presenting enough of a threat to keep play action profitable. Schaub won't knock anyone's socks off, but with a slate of sorry pass defenses there will be plenty of games where he can serve as an acceptable option. SD TEN BAL SEA SF STL KC BYE IND ARI OAK JAC NE JAC IND DEN TEN

17 Ben Roethlisberger #2 QB Passing Rushing QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 3 Steelers System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 9 Big Ben s near-legendary refusal to take no for an answer on any play has led to countless highlights of him spinning, shrugging off two would-be tacklers and staggering under the weight of a third before heaving the ball downfield. Time and again he manages to make the play, but it's not a style that ages well. What's more, despite a revamping the early returns on the Steelers' OL have been far from positive. With fewer weapons and iffy protection, Roethlisberger's prospects are iffy at best. TEN CIN CHI MIN BYE NYJ BAL OAK NE BUF DET CLE BAL MIA CIN GB CLE Carson Palmer Passing Rushing #2 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 3 Cardinals System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 8 There aren't many experiences that could make Arizona's backfield seem like a refuge, but two seasons in Raiderland will certainly do it. Palmer will welcome even the scant protection that Arizona's rebuilt OL can offer, and Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are miles better than anything he had to throw to in Oakland. He's not the best bet to last 16 games and his arm isn't ideally suited for Bruce Arians' offense, but Palmer should still have his moments in STL DET NO TB CAR SF SEA ATL BYE HOU JAC IND PHI STL TEN SEA SF Alex D. Smith Passing Rushing #2 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 3 Chiefs System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 8 There's a strong chance that Alex Smith will be overexposed in Andy Reid's chuck-it-around attack, but in between the gaffes he'll manage some solid weeks thanks to a comically easy slate of pass defenses. His limitations as a downfield passer and a paucity of solid weapons outside of Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles put a hard cap on his potential, however. JAC DAL PHI NYG TEN OAK HOU CLE BUF BYE DEN SD DEN WAS OAK IND SD Joe Flacco Passing Rushing #2 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 4 Ravens System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 10 The Ravens' offense took off after jettisonning Cam Camerson as their OC and Joe Flacco reached new heights, with a Lombardi Trophy awaiting him atop the mountain. A hot streak does not an elite QB make, however, and Flacco's ability to keep his play at a consistently high level is still up for debate. What's less debateable is the drastic dropoff in the Ravens' skill position talent due to free agency and injury. Even a top-tier QB can only go so far spamming Torrey Smith and Ray Rice for a full season, and it will be tough for Flacco's stats to match those of his weapon-wealthier peers. DEN CLE HOU BUF MIA GB PIT BYE CLE CIN CHI NYJ PIT MIN DET NE CIN

18 Philip Rivers Passing Rushing #3 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 3 Chargers System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 8 After a fall-off in 2011 and an absolutely wretched 2012, Philip Rivers' status as a quality QB is in serious doubt. His prospects are hardly enhanced by the loss of deep burner Danario Alexander and what looks to be another failtastic Chargers' OL. A move to a quickpassing offense should help lessen the beating Rivers takes this year, but it's not likely to make him all that attractive even as a backup option. HOU PHI TEN DAL OAK IND JAC BYE WAS DEN MIA KC CIN NYG DEN OAK KC Brandon Weeden #3 QB Passing Rushing QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 3 Browns 2011 DID NOT PLAY 0 System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 9 A punchline for most of 2012, Weeden has shown some moments of legitimate frisk in the Browns' new downfield attack. You almost certainly don't want him as your backup, but he's better than the guys below him as a deep-league option and he should be able to at least help Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron fulfill a good chunk of their potential this year. MIA BAL MIN CIN BUF DET GB KC BAL BYE CIN PIT JAC NE CHI NYJ PIT Christian Ponder #3 QB Passing Rushing QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 2 Vikings System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 8 Ponder has added some intriguing weapons in Greg Jennings and rookie Cordarrelle Patterson, and with AP in the backfield play action passes will always be on the menu. But when a guy is getting confused by coverage looks in the preseason, it's no kind of a good sign. Ponder is more likely to squander his newfound offensive talent than to capitalize on it. DET CHI CLE PIT BYE CAR NYG GB DAL WAS SEA GB CHI BAL PHI CIN DET Jake Locker Passing Rushing #3 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 2 Titans System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 9 Locker offers some intrigue - he's got a reasonable cast of receiving weapons, an improved OL, and he's more than capable of chipping in a few hundred rushing yards and some TDs on the ground over a full season of work. But if he doesn't know where the ball is going when he throws it, do you know if you can count on him as your backup QB? PIT HOU SD NYJ KC SEA SF BYE STL JAC IND OAK IND DEN ARI JAC HOU

19 E.J. Manuel Passing Rushing #3 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 5 Bills 2011 DID NOT PLAY 0 System Risk DID NOT PLAY 0 Upside Projections: R/R Total 12 Manuel was always likely to seize the reins early in Buffalo, but Kevin Kolb's concussion woes have made him the unchallenged starter. He may be challenged to play in Week One thanks to a balky knee, and very little about his lack of polish as a passer puts a serious damper on his potential in NE CAR NYJ BAL CLE CIN MIA NO KC PIT NYJ BYE ATL TB JAC MIA NE Blaine Gabbert Passing Rushing #3 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 2 Jaguars System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 7 You don't want Gabbert, but with improved protection there may be guys you want even LESS than him. If you're in a crazy-deep league, he's a better option than the guys below him on this list. KC OAK SEA IND STL DEN SD SF BYE TEN ARI HOU CLE HOU BUF TEN IND Terrelle Pryor Passing Rushing #3 QB QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 2 Raiders 2011 DID NOT PLAY 0 System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 6 It looks like the Oakland brass wants to give Pryor at least a long look this season, and he's the likeliest bet to start Week One out of any of Oakland's dire QB stable. The results will not be good. IND JAC DEN WAS SD KC BYE PIT PHI NYG HOU TEN DAL NYJ KC SD DEN Mark Sanchez Passing Rushing NO! QB Att Yard YPA TD INT Att Yard TD Points Player Risk 1 Jets System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 5 Let's save ourselves some time. No. Just, no. TB NE BUF TEN ATL PIT NE CIN NO BYE BUF BAL MIA OAK CAR CLE MIA

20 RUNNING BACKS 20

21 Adrian Peterson Top Tier Att Yard YPC TD Target Rec Yard YPA TD Points Player Risk 5 Vikings System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 15 Last season, we said it was 'inconceivable' that Adrian Peterson could regain his full measure of speed, power and grace so quickly after a major knee injury. Apparently, that word does not mean what we thought it meant. Peterson's run at the record was absolutely dazzling last season, and more than a year out from surgery with a road-grading OL it's hard to put a cap on what he's capable of. While regression to the mean may be more likely than a further ascent into the stratosphere, it's hard to put any other back - or player, for that matter - at the top of the board. DET CHI CLE PIT BYE CAR NYG GB DAL WAS SEA GB CHI BAL PHI CIN DET Doug Martin Top Tier Att Yard YPC TD Target Rec Yard YPA TD Points Player Risk 5 Buccaneers 2011 DID NOT PLAY 0 System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 12 His starting guards went down, his head coach somehow turned the take-a-knee play into controversy, and his QB's final five games were the most depressing finish since Requiem for a Dream. Through it all, though, rookie runner Doug Martin kept grinding to turn in one of the best first-year showings in league history. He lacks the sizzle of other top runners, but he brings the steak in pure Emmitt Smith/Ray Rice fashion. With his OL restored to health and more support from his defense, Martin's sophomore effort should see him challenge for the Fantasy title. NYJ NO NE ARI BYE PHI ATL CAR SEA MIA ATL DET CAR BUF SF STL NO C.J. Spiller Top Tier Att Yard YPC TD Target Rec Yard YPA TD Points Player Risk 4 Bills System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 13 C.J. Spiller went off like a bomb in In the eleven games where he got 12 or more touches, he averaged over 120 combined yards and challenged Jamaal Charles' insane 2012 season for pure per-touch destruction. With run-friendly coach Doug Marrone stepping in from Syracuse, the sky is the limit for Spiller in The expected coronation of E.J. Manuel could put a cap on the offense's overall productivity, but it could also open up the kind of read-option opportunities that made Chris Johnson into CJ2K. NE CAR NYJ BAL CLE CIN MIA NO KC PIT NYJ BYE ATL TB JAC MIA NE Jamaal Charles Top Tier Att Yard YPC TD Target Rec Yard YPA TD Points Player Risk 4 Chiefs System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 12 Though overshadowed by outright cyborg Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles managed quite a return of his own in a 1500-yard effort that was even more impressive given the Chiefs' dumpster fire of a season. Andy Reid turns backs into PPR monsters, and The Walrus' arrival combined with an improved OL and a cake schedule makes Charles a safe bet for Top-5 back status. Should AP take time off to finally go hunt down Sarah Connor, the top spot could be there for the taking. JAC DAL PHI NYG TEN OAK HOU CLE BUF BYE DEN SD DEN WAS OAK IND SD

22 LeSean McCoy Top Tier Att Yard YPC TD Target Rec Yard YPA TD Points Player Risk 4 Eagles System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 12 After suffering through a nightmare season for the erstwhile 'Dream Team' and getting concussed to boot, LeSean McCoy has to be salivating to take the field in Fantasy owners should be drooling too - Chip Kelly brings an up-tempo, high-octane ground attack that should produce major numbers for its feature back. The offensive line will look worlds better than it did in 2012, and outside of deep shots to DeSean Jackson the passing game could make McCoy a major focus as well. Shady won't top 300 carries, but his pertouch productivity keep him square among the elite at his position. WAS SD KC DEN NYG TB DAL NYG OAK GB WAS BYE ARI DET MIN CHI DAL Trent Richardson Top Tier Att Yard YPC TD Target Rec Yard YPA TD Points Player Risk 3 Browns 2011 DID NOT PLAY 0 System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 10 Richardson is a tough, dynamic and all-around excellent runner who could lead all backs in touches this season. It's even possible that all of that is enough to overcome the indisputible fact that God hates Cleveland. But whether His wrath manifests itself in more nagging injuries (he always seems to have one), a smiting of the OL (his guards are dropping like flies in the preseason) or a full-on collapse from Brandon Weeden (which hardly requires Divine intervention), SOMETHING is likely to make every yard a struggle. And that's a tough row to hoe, even for a back of Richardson's talent. MIA BAL MIN CIN BUF DET GB KC BAL BYE CIN PIT JAC NE CHI NYJ PIT Ray Rice #1 Back Att Yard YPC TD Target Rec Yard YPA TD Points Player Risk 5 Ravens System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 12 Rice has some I wouldn t call him poor exactly, but he does take his dates to Golden Corral man s Emmitt Smith in his game as a somewhat undersized runner with great vision, patience and the ability to bounce off tacklers and make them miss in the hole. He's also dynamite as a receiver, and he may shoulder an even bigger receiving load this season with Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin gone. The flip side is ceding more carries to hard-running backup Bernard Pierce, but the quality of the Ravens' OL and Rice's skill set combine to make him a safe and solid choice as a #1 back. DEN CLE HOU BUF MIA GB PIT BYE CLE CIN CHI NYJ PIT MIN DET NE CIN Matt Forte #1 Back Att Yard YPC TD Target Rec Yard YPA TD Points Player Risk 4 Bears System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 12 The Bears' offense was largely an afterthought in the Lovie Smith era, while the offensive line resembled an afterbirth. New coach Marc Trestman aims to clean up the mess, and Matt Forte figures to be a major beneficiary. Attention has finally been paid to the OL, which could achieve a long dreamt-of level of 'average' if additions like Jermon Bushrod, Matt Slauson and rookie Kyle Long pan out. Trestman is also emphasizing shorter drops and safer throws for Jay Cutler while appearing open to more red zone carries for his lead runner. In addition to giving Bears' fans a reason not to head to the beer line when the offense takes the field, all that means a top 10 PPR ranking for Forte. CIN MIN PIT DET NO NYG WAS BYE GB DET BAL STL MIN DAL CLE PHI GB

23 Alfred Morris #1 Back Att Yard YPC TD Target Rec Yard YPA TD Points Player Risk 4 Redskins 2011 DID NOT PLAY 0 System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 11 Mike Shanahan is the Simon Cowell of the NFL, giving obscure sixth-round runners a one-of-a-kind platform to become household names. He tends to be similarly capricious with his affections, but Alfred Morris won his season-long devotion by turning in a yard, 13-TD showcase. Some of that total was read-option largesse generated by RGIII, but Morris proved adept at the Shanahan onecut style and was frequently a load to tackle. Questions around Griffin's health and its impact on the Redskin run game keep Morris from being a slam-dunk elite choice, but as long as he stays on Shanahan's good side there will be plenty of production. PHI GB DET OAK BYE DAL CHI DEN SD MIN PHI SF NYG KC ATL DAL NYG Marshawn Lynch #1 Back Att Yard YPC TD Target Rec Yard YPA TD Points Player Risk 3 Seahawks System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 9 It's usually raining in Seattle, but Marshawn Lynch has also been responsible for a hail of Skittles with frequent jaunts to the end zone. Russell Wilson's downfield passing and read-option savvy gave Lynch a ton of room to roam last season. Similar production should be in store, but the picture isn't entirely sunny - again, no surprise for Seattle. The OL is still nothng to write home about, Lynch's violent running style poses an injury risk, he's not too involved in the passing game and could have his workload scaled back a bit to keep him fresh. Those factors could make Lynch's production spikier than you like from your lead back, but he should be spiking enough footballs to make up for it. CAR SF JAC HOU IND TEN ARI STL TB ATL MIN BYE NO SF NYG ARI STL Arian Foster #1 Back Att Yard YPC TD Target Rec Yard YPA TD Points Player Risk 4 Texans System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 10 A one-cut wonder in the proud Shanahan/Kubiak tradition, Foster found fewer places to cut to in 2012 as the right side of his OL failed to hold up their end of the bargain. Questions remain on the OL, and more have been raised about Foster's explosiveness after some very pedestrian Yards After Contact and Yards per Reception numbers last season. He'll remain a workhorse, but those questions and some health concerns leading up to Week One knock him out of the top tier of 2013 backs. SD TEN BAL SEA SF STL KC BYE IND ARI OAK JAC NE JAC IND DEN TEN Reggie Bush #2 Back Att Yard YPC TD Target Rec Yard YPA TD Points Player Risk 3 Lions System Risk Upside Projections: R/R Total 10 Reggie Bush goes to New Orleans to become the Next Big Thing - becomes Eric Metcalf Lite. Reggie Bush goes to Miami, Darren Sproles goes to New Orleans and becomes what Reggie Bush was supposed to be. Meanwhile, Bush's catches get dialed back but he finally shows signs of being a competent between-the-tackles runner. Now Bush goes to Detroit to be...the Next Big Thing? Probably not, but at least he stands to see a major spike in his receiving totals with the pass-happy Lions. If he can stick as the ground game's lead component while seeing 11-12% of 700 throws come his way, he'll push for 1 status. MIN ARI WAS CHI GB CLE CIN DAL BYE CHI PIT TB GB PHI BAL NYG MIN