COLLEGE FOOTBALL KICKOFF ISSUE WIN WITH JOE NELSON ON VI THIS SEASON

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1 THE GREEN SHEET Volume XXVI Issue 5 August 29, 2016 COLLEGE FOOTBALL KICKOFF ISSUE WIN WITH JOE NELSON ON VI THIS SEASON 2016 GREEN SHEET NEWSLETTER The Green Sheet Newsletter will be available by Tuesdays each week on Vegas Insider. Get each issue for $10 per week or get a season pass and save over 50% on the individual issues. The Green Sheet offers an early week opinion on almost every game of the college and pro season through the Super Bowl, featuring nearly 1,000 predictions. The Green Sheet is a great way to get a jump start on your handicapping each week with loads of technical trends and great analysis provided by Joe Nelson. JOE NELSON PREMIUM SELECTIONS Joe Nelson has been a regular on the Vegas Insider leader board since Well known for producing the Nelly s Sportsline Green Sheet football newsletter, Nelson provides his very best picks to Vegas Insider clients. The football season was especially profitable for Nelson, finishing as the Vegas Insider win percentage leader in BOTH the NFL and college football at 60%, finishing as the money leader in the NFL and #2 in money earned in college football amongst the deep and excellent field of handicappers at Vegas Insider. Few handicappers have ever been able to put together such strong finishes in both disciplines in the same season. Nelson was just off the leaderboard in the NFL last season with a strong 57.5% season on Vegas Insider including an 8-3 run in the NFL Playoffs. This version of the Green Sheet is prepared exclusively for $10.00 Between the Lines... Every year there are some big names that hit the injury report in the preseason and last week featured some scary moments. A.J. Green and Julio Jones have been star receivers in the league since being picked two spots apart in the 2011 draft and both were hurt last week for a big scare for squads that expect to contend. The Ravens lost two offensive contributors as well and Bears backup quarterback Connor Shaw suffered a broken leg. The biggest chip to fall however was sadly one of the more predictable ones as Tony Romo appears headed for another injury-plagued season. The timetable isn t immediately clear but nothing about a fractured vertebrae sounds like a quick recovery. The injury happened on a very Romo-esque play, trying to scramble for yardage early in a meaningless preseason game. Dak Prescott has been impressive in the preseason and he looks poised to start right away for the Cowboys despite being just the sixth quarterback taken in the draft. Dallas has to be hot on the waiver wire however as bringing in an experienced back-up seems necessary at this point as recall Kellen Moore was injured early in camp and Jameill Showers is the only other quarterback on the roster. The NFC East looks fairly wide open this season but with huge division games in the first two weeks with the Giants and Redskins, Dallas cannot afford a slow start. While the NFL has been in the spotlight this week is about the opening college football games and there are several games with serious national implications this week. While many of the games were scheduled well in advance the College Football Playoff deserves some credit for allowing teams to survive an early season loss and still have a chance at the big prize, supporting a willingness to take on a marquee non-conference game early in the season. Six of the eight College Football Playoff teams over two years have entered the bracket with a loss as perfection is no longer required. Having just one loss has been a requirement however as no two-loss team has ever been entered into the field. With the Big Ten joining the Pac-12 and moving to a grueling nine-game conference schedule (which the Big XII also employs though without a conference title game) there appears to be a big advantage for the SEC and the ACC in ensuring a team makes the tournament. Make note that the non-conference games will carry a bit more importance for teams in the Pac-12 and Big Ten who would likely need to go 10-0 in league games if they take an early season loss. Stanford was the perfect example last season as they were the clear top Pac-12 team and looked the part of a College Football Playoff squad but an opening week upset was too much to overcome. The Group of 5 race should offer some intrigue this season as well and the new format that does offer a major bowl slot to one of those squads should allow for some drama in the race. Houston has biggest opportunity to cement its place on top of those rankings but there are also big games this week for Southern Miss and Western Michigan as well as a head-to-head clash between Toledo and Arkansas State. We didn t have room to list them this week but in addition to 40 FBS head-tohead matchups this week there are 47 other FBS teams in action vs. FCS squads. The biggest notable upset risks for major conference teams might be Virginia vs. Richmond, Iowa State vs. Northern Iowa, NC State vs. William & Mary, Syracuse vs. Colgate, Arizona State vs. Northern Arizona, and among the longer shots South Dakota State vs. TCU as all those opponents are projected top 20 FCS squads. In a matchup of top 10 squads, the FCS season opened last week with North Dakota State edging Charleston Southern in overtime as the Bison started the season looking for an incredible sixth straight championship. That game was on ESPN in a Saturday night time slot and lines were widely available. NDSU was never close to covering a three-touchdown spread and fading NDSU when lines are available is probably the right move given that they are by far the most well known FCS team. Best of Luck and on to this week s slate... UNAUTHORIZED DUPLICATION, REPRODUCTION, TRANSFER, OR PUBLIC POSTING IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. VIOLATORS WILL FACE AN IMMEDIATE TERMINATION OF THEIR SUBSCRIPTION.

2 PRESEASON WEEK 4 ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 1, 2016 PHILADELPHIA (-3½) NY Jets This could be Christian Hackenberg s game as the rookie saw his first significant action last week with some real struggles as the Jets gave away a win vs. the rival Giants in the fourth quarter. Doug Pederson is the one first year coach that is proving the old adage about new coaches wanting to win. ATLANTA (-3½) Jacksonville (39½) The Jaguars wound up stealing a win last week but the first team offense struggled. The Falcons have a scheduling advantage playing Thursday last week while Jacksonville played Sunday night. MIAMI (-3) Tennessee (39½) After an ugly week 2 loss the Dolphins responded with a strong performance last Thursday to beat Atlanta with great numbers on both sides of the ball. With all of the other AFC East teams having some challenges this summer the Dolphins have had an encouraging start for Adam Gase. NY GIANTS (-1½) New England (40) The Giants found a way into the win column last week but the offensive numbers have been ugly. New England is 3-0 and could conceivably give Tom Brady more of a workload this week as he ll be off the next month. DETROIT (-3) Buffalo (38½) The Lions have had severe success in the recent history of this preseason series. Buffalo didn t play many key starters last week and with the injury toll already heavy it would be a surprise if that changed this week. TAMPA BAY (-3) Washington (39½) Washington held on in a dramatic finish last Friday while the Buccaneers are starting to look like a potential NFC sleeper with a defense that can make plays in the secondary and an offense that has a high ceiling. CINCINNATI (-3½) Indianapolis (39) The Bengals looked great in the first half last week with clear first team edges on both sides of the ball vs. Jacksonville. This team may not be getting enough attention as a serious AFC contender. CAROLINA (-3½) Pittsburgh (39) The Panthers have lost two of three preseason games but they have outscored opponents. The secondary has warranted some concern and this matchup should provide a good read on that situation. KANSAS CITY (-3½) Green Bay (38) The Packers are 3-0 in the preseason with the defense leading the way, allowing just 37 points combined. The Chiefs have only allowed 45 points despite being just 1-2 but the running game has been disappointing. NEW ORLEANS (-3½) Baltimore (40½) John Harbaugh continues to take the preseason pretty seriously at 3-0 but injuries were costly last week. The Saints are on the other end of the spectrum with the defense allowing 77 points. DALLAS (-1½) Houston (39) This is one of the few Week 4 games with a lower line than the uniform -3 to - 3½ for the home team. Tony Romo s injury is putting a big shadow over what looked like a promising season and while Dak Prescott has starred this preseason Dallas needs to be careful with him now. CLEVELAND (-3) Chicago (37) If you are a believer in the preseason transferring over to the regular season these are perhaps the league s worst two teams, combining to go 0-6 and outscored by 73 points. MINNESOTA (-3½) Los Angeles (36½) The new Minneapolis stadium opened last week and Mike Zimmer s preseason record continues to shine with the Vikings defense again stepping up late to preserve a win and a cover. #1 pick Jared Goff has not looked ready to start in Week 1 for the Rams. ARIZONA (-4) Denver (38) 8:30 PM Falling behind significantly early last week may have provided a boost to the offense as Arizona had good production but five turnovers dug a pretty big hole. One of the top NFC favorites has the very worst point differential in the NFL through three preseason weeks. Denver has announced that Trevor Siemian has passed up Mark Sanchez to replace Peyton Manning. SAN DIEGO (-3) San Francisco (39½) 9:00 PM The 49ers are getting attention for not the greatest reasons as after a distraction filled season in Philadelphia Chip Kelly may have some major hurdles in year one in San Francisco. Both offenses have struggled in preseason action but Kelly keeps this total elevated. OAKLAND (-1½) Seattle (38½) 9:00 PM Seattle remains a tough to team to fade preseason or otherwise and Oakland has not played complete games. This is an old AFC West matchup though the Seahawks are not the same squad away from home. NFL Close Calls Preseason Week 3 Seattle Seahawks (-5½) 27, Dallas Cowboys 17 (43): Seattle took control in the third quarter of this preseason matchup Thursday night, a game marred by Tony Romo s injury. Leading the total that dipped from 44½ down to 43 by game time was still in doubt. After a Dallas fumble near midfield Seattle seemed poised to add more points but the Seahawks went for it on 4th and short on the long end of field goal range and came up empty as Trevone Boykin was sacked. Led by Jameill Showers, Dallas delivered a late touchdown drive, finding the end zone inside of two minutes to clinch the over for many. New England Patriots (+3) 19, Carolina Panthers 17 (44½): The Patriots led 16-3 heading into the fourth quarter and seemingly put the game away with a field goal with just over five minutes to go in the game. The Panthers posted two late scoring drives behind Joe Webb but they failed on the twopoint conversion attempt on the first score as they would have had the opportunity to force overtime on the second score had that conversion succeeded and overtime could have flipped the outcomes on both the side and the total. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) 30, Cleveland Browns 13 (43): The total on this game went upward from 41½ to a closing number of 43, right where the final score landed. With 37 points in the first half the over certainly was in good shape, aided by a 73-yard punt return for the Buccaneecdrs and a big pass play from the Browns just before halftime. There was just a lone field goal in the third quarter and another field goal in the fourth quarter as a late Browns drive led by rookie Cody Kessler came up empty. The final field goal was enough to hit the over for most but the total wound up a push on the closing number. Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) 27, New Orleans 14 (44½): This matchup of two of the top offensive teams in the league featured the highest total of the week. It appeared that mark would still be cleared with 38 points through three quarters and both teams moving the ball successfully. Down by 10 the Saints opted to go for it on 4th and 1 at the Pittsburgh 10-yard line early in the fourth quarter and that move did not pay off, costing those on the over as well with a missed scoring opportunity. After a New Orleans interception the Steelers added a field goal with just over three minutes to go to put the score at but it wasn t enough as a late Saints drive ended in an interception and the under held on. Washington Redskins (-3½) 21, Buffalo Bills 16 (42½): Washington had a 21-9 lead at the half but the Bills were within five early in the third quarter and an attempt to answer by the Redskins failed as an 11-play drive ended on downs in field goal range with Washington trying to make a 4th and 1 conversion. The teams traded four straight punts despite picking up several first downs and E.J. Manuel failed to move the chains just ahead of the two-minute warning as the Bills went for it on 4th and 13 down by five. Manuel appeared to get redemption with 16 seconds to go in the game hitting Greg Little for a touchdown but offensive pass interference wiped out a score that would have flipped the spread and total results. On 4th and goal from the Washington 28 the Redskins came up with an interception in the end zone to end the game and preserve narrow wins on the favorite and the under. Baltimore Ravens (-2½) 30, Detroit Lions 9 (42½): The Ravens took control of this game in the second quarter and the under looked promising with a 23-6 edge for the Ravens at the end of three quarters. Baltimore would add a touchdown about halfway through the final frame but another touchdown would be needed for the over to hit. Disaster struck those on the under as Ravens running back Stephen Houston fumbled with the loose ball returned to the Baltimore 9-yard line in the final minutes. The Lions went backwards behind Jake Rudock however and simply settled for a short field goal as the under held on. New York Giants (PK) 21, New York Jets 20 (42): The Jets had a dominant yardage edge early in this game but only led 10-0 late in the third quarter. The Giants finally got on the scoreboard just before the fourth quarter with a touchdown pass from Ryan Nassib. Early in fourth quarter a Bryce Petty pass was intercepted and returned 73 yards as all of sudden the Giants had a lead. Behind rookie Christian Hackenberg the Jets took control again with 10 points in three minutes in the middle of the fourth quarter to lead by six, which was enough to secure the underdog cover for most as the Jets were +2½ before an afternoon slide in the hours before the game started with the closing line down to even. After the Giants failed to add points on a 72-yard drive Hackenberg gave them another chance with an interception deep in Jets territory and two plays later the Giants had a lead. The Jets did get into Giants territory on a late drive with the total still in play and early Giants backers looking for another score but they came up empty on a 4th and 1 play with just over a minute to go. Tennessee Titans (+3) 27, Oakland Raiders 14 (41½): The total on this game slipped from 43½ to 41½ and that certainly looked like a move in the wrong direction as the first team offenses were sharp combining for 34 first half points. A productive opening drive of the second half for the Raiders wound up with a Tennessee touchdown after a 47-yard fumble return and with over 20 minutes to go the total was at 41. The Titans were content to punt with a lead and four separate times in the fourth quarter the Raiders were inside of Tennessee territory only to fail to add points with two interceptions, being stopped on downs, and running out of time on the final possession as the under held on. Denver Broncos (-6) 17, Los Angeles Rams 9 (41): Denver led just 10-9 at halftime as the biggest favorite of the day on Saturday. A third quarter touchdown put the Broncos past the spread but with an eight-point lead any score would spoil the cover. These teams combined for seven consecutive punts with minimal yardage at one point but late in the game the Rams had a great scoring opportunity going 68-yards behind Sean Mannion and reaching the Denver 7-yard line. Down eight Los Angeles needed a touchdown however and on 4th down the threat ended with an incomplete pass. Minnesota Vikings (-6½) 23, San Diego Chargers 10 (40): While the Vikings took control of the game early in the second half with a touchdown and a two-point conversion the Chargers did have chance to spoil the spread and total results in the final minutes. For the third straight week the Minnesota defense held in the final minutes this time intercepting Mike Bercovici for a touchback with the Chargers in the red zone when a touchdown would have forced at least a push or worse for those that eventually held on backing Minnesota or the under. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2½) 26, Cincinnati Bengals 21 (42½): The Bengals had a 14-0 lead early and after a great opening drive out of the half Cincinnati led Jacksonville climbed within 10 by the end of the third quarter and closed the gap to just two points early in the fourth quarter as the total sat at 40 with over 11 minutes to go. The spread and total results flipped on one play as Bengals quarterback Joe Licata was intercepted with Hayes Pullard delivering a long return touchdown to seal the over and put Jacksonville in position for the small favorite cover. Two late Cincinnati possessions resulted in harmless punts as the Jaguars got their first win.

3 COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS ********************************************************************** RATING 5 OHIO STATE (-27½) over Bowling Green RATING 4 UL-LAFAYETTE (+20½) over Boise State RATING 3 GEORGIA (-2½) over North Carolina RATING 2 NEBRASKA (-28) over Fresno State RATING 2 BYU (+1) over Arizona RATING 1 ALABAMA (-10½) over Usc RATING 1 MISSOURI (+9½) over West Virginia ********************************************************************** ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 1, 2016 Indiana (-9½) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (61) Replacing Nate Sudfeld will be a challenge for Indiana but the Hoosiers are capable of taking another step forward in 2016 after breaking into a bowl game last year. Last season these teams met in Bloomington with the Hoosiers winning in a game that featured even yardage and the Panthers actually held a one-point lead at the half. In five seasons under Kevin Wilson Indiana is 6-20 S/U in road games as nothing should be taken for granted. Florida International made waves in the opening week last season beating UCF, which at the time looked like a major upset before the Knights went on to go The Panthers have most of the starting offense back including junior quarterback Alex McGough who had a fine statistical season last year. After going 5-7 last season Ron Turner s team has sights on a bowl bid and winning at least one of two home games vs. Big Ten foes to start the season would be a great step in that regard. This line has doubled from its summer release and may be sitting a bit too high for a Hoosiers team with some potential but also with a limited track record of success and unproven leaders on both sides of the ball. INDIANA BY 6 LOUISVILLE (-39½) Charlotte (60½) It took four games for Louisville to pick up its first win last season but as this spread suggests it would be a shock if the Cardinals didn t open the 2016 season with a win. Looking ahead to ACC matchups the next two weeks is a risk but a Cardinals squad that returns a great deal of starting experience should be in line for a promising start to the season. Charlotte started 2-0 in the first FBS season for the program last year but that is as far as the team got with 10 straight defeats including only two of those setbacks coming by fewer than 10 points. The will be a veteran team with the program starting four years ago as the roster is filled with upperclassmen. Miami transfer Kevin Olsen is poised to lead the offense and improvement is needed after averaging just over 17 points per game last season. Against the most promising programs the 49ers faced last season Charlotte lost by 34, 34, 24, and 48 as this squad was only competitive against the bottom of Conference USA. After last season s brutal September Louisville should be a team focused on a great start to the season but Louisville only eclipsed scoring 38 points in one FBS game all last season let alone winning by that kind of a margin as this spread is asking a lot for the Cardinals. Some major program transfers are filling in a lot of gaps for Charlotte who could be an improved team despite being valued as one of the nation s worst team and with the 49ers riding at 10-game losing streak. LOUISVILLE BY 35 WAKE FOREST (-17) Tulane (43) After back to back 3-9 seasons for Dave Clawson at Wake Forest there is reason to believe that 2016 is the year the program takes a step forward. In the opener the Demon Deacons will be as big of a favorite as they have been in a FBS game since 2008 however and historically Wake Forest has not fared well as a double-digit favorite. This year s team has some experience and in the final month of the 2015 season Wake Forest played competitive ball covering in three of the final four games against four bowl teams including single-score losses to Louisville and Duke while out-gaining Notre Dame on the road in a respectable loss. After a successful two-year run at Georgia Southern Willie Fritz will debut leading Tulane with the Wave only featuring one winning season in the last decade. Like Wake Forest the program is coming off consecutive 3-9 seasons and a third of those wins came against FCS foes. The defense for Tulane appears to have some potential with most of last season s key players retuning and good positional depth but there are major questions on offense with a rather dramatic scheme transition and personnel that may not be an ideal fit for Fritz. Georgia Southern averaged 363 rushing yards per game last season, more than three times what Tulane averaged in 2015 and with that type of potential production on the ground and a defense that should be capable Tulane looks like a team that may be an attractive underdog many weeks. As this total suggests, points may be at a premium in this contest and while Wake Forest projects for a capable season this isn t a role the team is used to and if the run defense isn t up to the task an upset is possible. WAKE BY 10 WESTERN KENTUCKY (-16½) Rice (63) Replacing long-time starting quarterback Brandon Doughty will be a great challenge at Western Kentucky as he accounted for 48 touchdown passes last season. There are some veteran skill position players back on the offense but matching last season s 12-2 campaign will be a serious challenge. Jeff Brohm will also need to re-tool his defense which made dramatic improvement last season to no longer be a one dimensional squad that needed to outscore opponents. Only a few starters return on defense and the numbers could slide towards the 2014 averages when the Hilltoppers allowed 510 yards per game. Next up on the schedule is a spotlight opportunity with Alabama but this is an important crossover game in Conference USA to open the season. Rice was the runner up in C-USA West in 2014 and many thought the Owls would contend again last season. It didn t happen with a 5-7 season that featured several ugly blowout losses and a huge decline in the defensive numbers. Last season s result in Houston should be a motivating factor as Rice had five turnovers in that game led to a more lopsided result than deserved. The spread is about 10 points higher this year despite a decline likely for the Hilltoppers. WKU BY 7 VANDERBILT (-3½) South Carolina (43) Going from 3-9 to 4-8 in Derek Mason s second season wasn t a great leap but statistically there was a dramatic improvement for the Commodores on both sides of the ball. Vanderbilt played very close with several quality teams and scored two SEC wins. Vanderbilt last defeated South Carolina in 2008 but they have covered in six of the last nine meetings. A key difference this season will be favorite status for the Commodores for the first time since 1999 in the series. Last season the Gamecocks won in Columbia in what was a third straight road game for Vanderbilt. With a major transition season for South Carolina this is a prime opportunity for Vanderbilt to score a win in the series as Will Muschamp takes over the program and inherits a fairly thin roster with questions at several positions coming off last season s very disappointing 3-9 campaign. Muschamp s quarterback decision could shape the season with senior Perry Orth and freshman Brandon McIlwain in competition this summer. While history has been kinder to South Carolina this looks like a great opportunity for Vanderbilt but this price is quite out of sync with the recent lines in this series. VANDERBILT BY 3 MINNESOTA (-13) Oregon State (54½) 8:00 PM Jerry Kill s track record is certainly a strong one but his health issues did hold a cloud over the program in recent seasons and the clean shift to his longtime assistant Tracy Claeys leading the team should help build stability. Minnesota benefitted from getting a bowl win last season in the transition and while the team lost several quality players, particularly on defense, the 2016 prospects look promising with a more favorable schedule than in most of the recent seasons. This is a critical game for Minnesota to open 1-0 in the new era and the Gophers have a veteran quarterback and the top two returning rushers back and while this isn t going to be a flashy offense the potential for a strong season is there. Gary Andersen surprised many leaving Wisconsin after just two seasons and stepping down in prestige a notch with the move to Oregon State. His first season with the Beavers was a great challenge as a 2-1 start turned to 2-10 in Pac-12 play with a sizable gap between the other teams in the conference. Closing that gap to some degree is possible this season as Oregon State should be improved with much more experience in the second season in the system. Having some familiarity with Minnesota might be a plus for the coaching staff but the Beavers were blasted by Michigan last season 35-7 with a yardage difference and the Gophers should have beat Michigan last season. MINNESOTA BY 17 TENNESSEE (-20) Appalachian State (58) The Volunteers were about as impressive as a 9-4 team could be as the losses came by 7, 1, 4, and 5 points with all four defeats coming against prominent squads. Tennessee won its final five SEC games and then had a blowout Outback Bowl result over a 10-win Big Ten squad. The expectations in Knoxville will be as high as they have been in over a decade and Butch Jones will be expected to have his team improve in record for the fourth straight season. The roster looks loaded behind senior quarterback Joshua Dobbs and a defense that allowed just 20 points per game last season through a difficult schedule. Next week Tennessee faces a prominent national game with Virginia Tech on the Bristol Motor Speedway and this is an opening matchup the team cannot afford to overlook. In two years as a FBS program Appalachian State has had two winning seasons including going 11-2 last season. Tennessee s run defense hasn t been dominant under Jones as the unit has mainly excelled against the pass as 11 of 13 foes rushed for at least 110 yards vs. the Volunteers last season. The Mountaineers rushed for 271 yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry last season. Most of an impressive defense also returns for Appalachian State and this will be a huge game for players from the region mostly overlooked by the SEC schools. Last season Appalachian State played national semifinalist Clemson and while they lost by 31, the yardage deficit was just and four turnovers led to a few short field scores to help the Tigers pull away. Tennessee has mostly taken care of business in the heavy favorite role and in recent home openers and the enthusiasm will be high in Knoxville on opening night though the spread is steep. TENNESSEE BY 19

4 FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2016 GEORGIA STATE (-3) Ball State (52½) The Panthers took a big leap last season after going 0-12 and 1-11 in 2013 and 2014, finishing 6-6 before falling in the Cure Bowl for the first bowl game in the program s history. With a great deal or returning starters another productive season is possible in Atlanta and this might be a critical swing game in the bowl prospects. Last season Georgia State won at Ball State as a double-digit underdog and the Cardinals are in transition with Mike Neu taking over the program. Neu was a quarterback at Ball State in the early 90s and he coached Drew Brees and the Saints quarterbacks the past two seasons. Last season the Cardinals underachieved with a 3-9 campaign as this was a competitive team early in the year against quality competition before the wheels fell off in three November blowout losses with the defense allowing 150 points in the final three games. Neu has some returning experience to work with led by sophomore quarterback Riley Neal who had some bright moments as a freshman. Ultimately it will take a big step for the program to get back to the success of 2012 and 2013 and Georgia State threw for 412 yards in this matchup last season. The Panthers look ahead of the Cardinals defensively and that could decide this opener. GA ST BY 6 TEMPLE (-16) Army (46½) The Owls had a great 10-4 season in 2015, the third season under Matt Rhule who has delivered improvements of four wins each of the past two seasons. That streak will halt but the Owls should still be very competitive despite being a bit overlooked in the AAC. Last season Temple beat Penn State, Cincinnati, and Memphis and they out-gained Houston in the conference championship loss. There are some key players to replace from last season s squad and the offense was limited with fewer than 30 points per game last season despite the success. After slipping to 2-10 last season this is a big year for Jeff Monken in his third season after leaving Georgia Southern. Army has a schedule that could allow for a climb this season and this is about as experienced of a squad in West Point as there has been in many years. Army was only out-gained by an average of 38 yards per game last season despite the ugly record as eight losses came by 10 or fewer points and the Knights are a candidate to make a big leap this season if they can finish games stronger. Temple s recent track record has featured an excellent pass defense but running teams can give the Owls more trouble as the worst loss of last season came against South Florida who ran 48 times for 326 yards. Look for Temple to survive but there is a legitimate upset risk here despite the over two touchdown spread. TEMPLE BY 7 Colorado (-8) Colorado State At Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado Colorado State lost in overtime in this matchup in what was a second straight overtime defeat as the Rams started last season just 3-5 before winning the final four games of the season. The Rams had 155 more yards than the Buffaloes but turnovers were pivotal in the comeback for Colorado. Only a few starters return on both sides of the ball for Mike Bobo in his second season in Fort Collins but a win here could be a springboard to a strong start in a favorable first half schedule. Many thought last season would be the breakthrough in Boulder but a 3-1 start to the season was only added to with one Pac-12 win. This year s team has a lot of experience but a more difficult schedule ahead and getting to a bowl game for the first time since 2007 looks like a long shot for the program. Any hopes of getting to the postseason will hinge on winning this game which Colorado has won 20 of the last 28 meetings S/U though they have alternated wins and losses the last five years in Denver. Colorado has more in place for a successful start and this feels like an absolutely critical game for a senior-heavy team in Mike MacIntyre s fourth season with the Buffaloes. COLORADO BY 13 STANFORD (-15½) Kansas State (47½) 8:00 PM An upset loss in the opening week last season cost Stanford a spot in the College Football Playoff as most considered the Cardinal the top two-loss team in the nation last season. Stanford won the Pac-12 and the Rose Bowl for a successful fifth season for David Shaw who is now since taking over for Jim Harbaugh. That includes a 30-4 home record, though Stanford is just ATS the past four seasons as a home favorite. After next week s bye week Stanford has a run of heavyweight games including some of the biggest Pac-12 games in succession as we ll know by mid-october whether or not the Cardinal will be a contender this season. Replacing Kevin Hogan is a significant hurdle but Christian McCaffrey opens the season on the Heisman Trophy shortlist. Lost with the success last season was actually a significant decline in the defensive numbers compared with the less successful 2014 season and with more personnel losses this season it will be hard to envision a big bounce back on defense this season. Bill Snyder s underdog track record is exceptional and the Wildcats are no stranger to spoiling seasons for national contenders. This year s team projects to be a middle-of-the-pack team in a Big XII that looks much weaker as a whole compared with last season but the Wildcats should not be counted out as Kansas State is on a 20-8 ATS run as a road underdog since Expect defensive improvement from Kansas State after a big decline last season and quarterback play should also be stronger in STANFORD BY 10 ARKANSAS STATE (-3) Toledo (64½) 8:00 PM Toledo and Arkansas State played after the 2014 season in bowl action with a 19-point win for the Rockets and the result was even more lopsided last season as Toledo won 37-7 with dominant yardage totals at the Glass Bowl. This year a Toledo squad in a coaching transition and without some key players from last season s 10-2 team will have to go on the road in the opening week in what should be a big revenge game for the Red Wolves. Arkansas State opened last season 1-3 but then won out in Sun Belt play to take another conference title. While the Red Wolves lost in bowl action to Louisiana Tech it was a 9-4 season and the program has some stability with Blake Anderson back for a third season in Jonesboro after a coaching carousel the previous three years. A huge date at Auburn is up next in a bigger regional matchup with that game coming against Gus Malzahn who recruited and coached some of the players as the head coach here in the 2012 season. The program has had a lot of success in its home openers as even with a loss last season the Red Wolves were very competitive in a loss to Missouri. Under the lights Arkansas State should have a good opportunity to avenge last season s loss and emerge as one of the candidates in the Group of 5 race as a Sun Belt favorite. ASU BY 10 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2016 Georgia Tech (-3½) Boston College (44) 6:30 AM At Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland The ACC season opens early Saturday in Ireland in what is poised to be an important game for squads looking for rebound seasons after combining to go 1-15 in league play last season. Both teams point upward this season after 3-9 overall campaigns and this may be a key game in the bowl hopes on both sides. Boston College allowed just over 15 points per game last season featuring a remarkable defense but the offense was very limited though the Eagles out-gained and out-scored its opposition on the year despite only three wins. Georgia Tech actually had a much stronger defense last season than in the 2014 Coastal title season but like Boston College the offense took a big step backward. These teams have not faced off since a win for the Yellow Jackets in Boston College has more experience back this season and should feature more consistent quarterback play with Kentucky transfer Patrick Towles taking over. Ultimately Georgia Tech getting favoritism seems unjustified given the similar seasons last year and having all summer to prepare for the Yellow Jackets is a plus for the Eagles given the unique triple-option attack employed. Five Boston College losses last season came by three or fewer points as even if the Eagles fall short this price gives them a great opportunity to collect. BC BY 3 MICHIGAN (-40) Hawai i (54½) 11:00 AM Hawai i is accustomed to having some of the toughest travel each season but this year presents a unique challenge on the body clock after opening the season in Australia and preparing for another game at a polar opposite time a week later. Expectations are sky high for Michigan and the Wolverines may be a team to fade this season following a 10-3 debut for Jim Harbaugh, though it was only a 7-6 ATS season. Michigan hasn t defeated a FBS team by a margin as high as this spread since the opening game in 2013 this price is expecting a lot for a Michigan offense with some new pieces in place after Michigan only topped 500 yards twice in 13 games last season. Michigan had an exceptional defense last season allowing only 16 points per game but the road schedule features a big uptick in quality this season. Michigan is a great candidate to rise in the rankings in the first half with a very soft early season schedule but given the interest in supporting this squad the prices will be steep. Only once in the last two decades has Michigan been this big of a favorite and Hawai i has a bit of potential to be an improved team even in a transition season as nine offensive starters have returned and the production in the opener was strong although five turnovers proved costly. The balance on offense was encouraging as the Warriors gained 6.5 yards per rush while breaking several significant gains and that can keep the clock moving. The travel situation looks grueling but that is factored into an already soaring spread to back one of the nation s most popular teams. MICHIGAN BY 35 IOWA (-27½) Miami, OH (51½) The Hawkeyes are a serious threat to defend their Big Ten West title this season but this was not a dominant team despite the 12-0 regular season in On the year Iowa only outgained foes by about 45 yards per game with a minimal scoring edge and mostly close games as only two of the 12 wins came by more than 20 points. Next up is a huge game with rival Iowa State and this will likely be a bigger game for the MAC underdog. Ball State was only 3-9 last season and a look at a comparable game from last season was a 58-0 loss at Wisconsin. Turnovers marred that loss and the Badgers were in their home opener coming off a loss for a perfect storm. Ball State played close with Cincinnati the next week however and 16 starters are projected back on the roster for the Redhawks. This is the third and perhaps a critical season for Chuck Martin though the Redhawks have improved in record each of his seasons coming off a season. The non-conference schedule is very tough this season but getting an opportunity to face a Big Ten power should be a big draw for mostly kids from the Midwest and Iowa doesn t look like a great candidate for a blowout. IOWA BY 24

5 NORTHWESTERN (-5½) Western Michigan (52) 11:00 AM Western Michigan has opened its season vs. a current Big Ten team each of the last eight seasons with mostly respectable results including a 13-point loss vs. the eventual Big Ten champion Michigan State last season. That game was at home and one of the bigger games in school history as heading to Evanston won t carry the same weight. P.J. Fleck is one of the younger FBS coaches and he has had great success in three seasons with back-toback 8-5 seasons after going 1-11 in Zach Terrell is a senior quarterback that figures to be a MAC Player of the Year candidate but the defense looks a bit thin compared with last season and the 2015 team regressed on defense compared with the 2014 squad. Northwestern had one of the biggest upsets of the opening weekend last year en route to a 10-3 season and the Wildcats will look to avoid being the victim this season. Last year s team overachieved a bit with several narrow wins to reach 10 wins despite averaging fewer than 20 points per game. This will be Pat Fitzgerald s 11th season with Northwestern and for the most part the team has been better in the underdog role. Northwestern is only S/U at home under Fitzgerald while going 0-3 ATS the past three seasons hosting MAC teams as a home favorite. NORTHWESTERN BY 4 OHIO STATE (-27½) Bowling Green (63½) 11:00 AM The Buckeyes were favored by 34½ hosting the defending MAC champion last season and they had their hands full in a win over Northern Illinois. Bowling Green was the 2015 MAC champion as the Buckeyes have a tough opening test two weeks ahead of a huge game on the national stage vs. Oklahoma that will dominate the September conversation for the Buckeyes. This year s team will have few familiar players with heavy personnel losses on both sides of the ball but there will be no quarterback controversy as J.T. Barrett is back after being in and out of the starting role last season in a 12-1 campaign. Urban Meyer is 50-4 S/U at Ohio State but this was a losing ATS team last season and the offensive production dropped dramatically from the previous two seasons. Bowling Green has won two of the last three MAC titles but after just two seasons Dino Babers left and Mike Jinks is the new head coach after being an assistant at Texas Tech the past three seasons. Long-time starting quarterback Matt Johnson also needs to be replaced as does the top rusher and receiver from last season s team. Bowling Green is still a MAC contender but the gap between the Falcons and a powerhouse like Ohio State is likely quite a bit larger than it was last season even if there are some early season unknowns for the Buckeyes. OHIO STATE BY 41 PENN STATE (-21) Kent State (46) Penn State lost its opener last season vs. Temple and while this will be the opening game, the remaining three September games are all against much higher profile opponents. Penn State was 6-1 S/U at home last season and the Lions have a winning ATS record at home in two years under James Franklin. Replacing Christian Hackenberg may be a challenge but his career never blossomed as strong as most expected and a clean slate for the offense might be a good thing after rather limited numbers the past two seasons. Penn State will have a hard time matching last season s impressive defensive numbers and despite the matching 7-6 seasons the 2014 defense had even stronger statistics. Penn State beat Kent State 34-0 in 2013 in the last meetings but the Flashes figure to be a more competitive squad this season with one of the most experienced teams in the MAC. Last season Kent State lost by just three at Minnesota and also took Marshall to overtime as the team had a few strong showings in a 3-9 campaign. This is a critical fourth season for Paul Haynes and he has a veteran grouping in search of a signature win. With two FCS games on the schedule a bowl bid will be a challenge with this game and a game in Tuscaloosa as the other two nonconference tests but this should be a team ready for this opportunity and Penn State may be a bit of a work in progress early. PENN STATE BY 16 WEST VIRGINIA (-9½) Missouri (50½) 11:00 AM The Mountaineers have the potential to be one of the top offensive teams in the Big XII this season with senior quarterback Skyler Howard back along with the team s top two receivers from After a 3-4 start in 2015 the Mountaineers rallied to make the postseason, getting a narrow bowl win over Arizona State to reach the highest win count for the program since 2011, Dana Holgorsen s first season leading the team. Against a tough crop of Big XII offenses the Mountaineers have struggled defensively and after modest improvement the past three seasons a regression on defense looks likely this season with only a few veteran holdovers. There is a change at Missouri as long-time successful head coach Gary Pinkel has been replaced by Barry Odom. The Tigers surprised in winning SEC East titles in 2013 and 2014 before going just 1-7 in league play last season, although many of those losses came in very tight games. Missouri has eight starters back from a defense that allowed only 16 points per game last season but last season s offense had ugly results scoring fewer than 14 points per game. Drew Lock took over at quarterback midseason and now a sophomore he has potential despite the marginal statistics from 2014 as even a modest improvement on offense could make the Tigers a sleeper in the East. This line has fallen since the opener and the move makes sense as few teams had success passing the ball against Missouri last season with the Tigers only allowing one 300 yard net passing game. WEST VIRGINIA BY 3 UTEP (-7½) New Mexico State (61) The Miners fell from 7-6 in 2014 to just 5-7 last year but an overtime win at New Mexico State made for seven straight wins in this series. This year s team has a great shot to flip its record again and return to the postseason. Fresno State transfer Zack Greenlee looks like a viable quarterback and the receiving corps returns the top five receivers from last season for Sean Kugler in his fourth year with the program. New Mexico State hasn t topped four wins in any season in the last decade as the program has struggled to gain traction even though last season s 3-9 campaign was the best record for the team since The schedule ahead is daunting but this squad has shown offensive improvement in every season under Doug Martin. Last year the defense allowed 45 points per game but this is a big matchup after a narrow overtime loss at home in this rivalry last season. This spread is poised to be the smallest in this series in El Paso since 1999 and while the Aggies could score they can t justify that type of line swing. UTEP BY 10 Smu (-9½) NORTH TEXAS (66) After going 1-11 last season North Texas will start over this season with Seth Littrell coming over from North Carolina as an offensive-minded coach. The numbers were ugly last season and another long year looks likely with a challenging schedule ahead. SMU appears to have a more promising season ahead but the Mustangs only have three wins the past two seasons combined. North Texas accounted for one of those wins last season but the Mean Green won 43-6 the last time they hosted this series in SMU saw a significant improvement on offense last season and while the defense remained challenged, the Mustangs have the potential to be even better with nine offensive starters back in action led by senior quarterback Matt Davis. Neither program can take wins for granted and SMU has more in place a year ahead in the transition in this regional rivalry. SMU BY 17 MISSISSIPPI ST (-29½) South Alabama (56½) 11:00 AM The case can be made for Dak Prescott being one of the most valuable players for any team last season in leading the Bulldogs to a 9-4 season. Projected starter Nick Fitzgerald is highly regarded but a decline in production for the MSU offense has to be expected. Last season s defense was slightly stronger than the 2014 unit that reached #1 in the nation in November and Dan Mullen continues to provide consistent results in Starkville. South Alabama won three of its first five games last season including a major upset at San Diego State. The Sun Belt season went less smooth however as the Jaguars were not able to repeat a 2014 bowl season. The statistics were only slightly worse than the previous season as long-time head coach Joey Jones did a great job to compete with only five returning starters back at the start of last season. This year s team won t be significantly more experienced but the defense should have the opportunity to improve. Early in 2014 South Alabama hosted Mississippi State in a 35-3 loss the Jaguars haven t held up vs. major conference foes. MSU BY 35 OHIO (-21) Texas State (59½) Texas State appears to be opening the season valued as one of the worst teams in the country, starting as a whooping three-touchdown underdog vs. a mediocre MAC squad. Former North Carolina head coach Evertt Withers has taken over for Dennis Franchione who had a disappointing 2015 season amidst higher expectations after a season. Ohio looks like a potential MAC East contender this season for long-time head coach Frank Solich coming off a solid 8-5 campaign in The defense for the Bobcats returns several top playmakers but quarterback Derrius Vick needs to be replaced with senior J.D. Sprague in line to start after leading the Bobcats in a few games last season. The top four wide receivers from last season are also back and the program has gone at least 6-6 in seven straight seasons. Ohio has not covered as this big of a favorite vs. a FBS team since 2012 and while this isn t a program that can take anyone lightly, prominent major conference opportunities are up the next two weeks. OHIO BY 17 KENTUCKY (-6) Southern Miss (63½) The Wildcats have not been able to get over the hump with back-to-back 5-7 seasons with consecutive late season slides. In year four under Mark Stoops the expectation will be for a bowl bid and this opener against one of the 2015 Conference USA finalists might be critically important in that aim. Four of five wins last season came by eight or fewer points as this squad often played to its level of competition. To his credit Stoops is 7-3 ATS as a home favorite the past three years but life in the SEC is a great challenge with just four SEC wins in three seasons. After an uninspiring 3-3 start Southern Miss rattled off six straight dominant wins in league play last season before coming up short in the conference title game and also losing in bowl action. Todd Monken took a 0-12 team to 9-5 in three seasons and he was rewarded with a highly paid coordinator position in the NFL as Jay Hopson takes over after success leading Alcorn State and he was also an assistant with the Golden Eagles a decade ago under Jeff Bower. Southern Miss played Mississippi State and Nebraska pretty competitively last season and only lost by 13 against Washington in bowl action. Nick Mullens could be one of the most productive quarterbacks in the nation this season and Hopson is in a pretty favorable position to have a successful first season. The team also should have far more confidence this season with more wins last season than in the previous three years combined. KENTUCKY BY 1