2015 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER

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1 LOGICAL APPROACH P. O. Box Las Vegas, NV (702) Visit us on the Web at COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER Issue # 2 Games of September 10-14, 2015 College football got underway this past weekend with 124 of 128 FBS teams in action. 2 teams schedule to play had their games postponed due to weather (LSU and Toledo). Both will see their first action this week as will Massachusetts and North Texas. The opening weekend produced a number of surprises that included 4 FCS teams defeating FBS teams as Fordham defeated Army, South Dakota State defeated Kansas, Portland State defeated Washington State and North Dakota defeated Wyoming. Indiana barely survived Southern Illinois, winning when the Salukis failed to successfully execute a 2 point conversion as the game was ending. One FBS team actually upset an FCS team as UConn won despite being 6 ½ point home dogs to Villanova. And South Dakota State moved from a 6 point opening underdog to a 2 ½ point closing favorite in it s win at Kansas. But FBS teams also flexed their muscles as 9 FCS teams routed their lesser FCS foes by at least 50 points (Georgia Tech, Rutgers, Mississippi, Air Force, Colorado State, California, Memphis, Middle Tennessee and New Mexico). The ugliest was Ole Miss destroying outmanned Tennessee-Martin 76-3! If course the more noteworthy upsets involved games between two FBS teams with Central Florida and Stanford both winning games as double digit home underdogs. The first week of college action and in the NFL for that matter raises more questions than it does provide answers as the season starts with perceptions based on pre-season research and expectations. It often takes a couple of games or so for us to get a better understanding of the relative strength of teams as shown on the field of play as opposed to opinions in mid-summer previews. Some teams will have been overrated while others will have been underrated. Some will have been hit right on the mark. And there are always a handful of teams often more that will appear to be totally different over the first half of the season than they will be in the latter half. Our task, and it s by no means easy, is to identify which teams belong in which group and how to treat those teams going forward. In the NFL the practice games are over. The final cuts have been made. The offensive and defensive philosophies have been tweaked. And game plans have been put in motion. The start of the NFL regular season is at hand and it all begins with a compelling contest between a pair of AFC Playoff contenders as defending Super Bowl Champion New England hosts Pittsburgh on Thursday. The Deflategate saga that made headlines for the past 7+ months appears to have been resolved, at least for now, as Patriots QB Tom Brady s 4 game suspension was overturned last week in court, although the NFL has stated the judge s decision will be appealed. But enough of the off-the-field distractions! As we annually do before the season, we take a look at how we think the standings might look and how the season may unfold, including our thoughts on the Super Bowl 50 matchup next February 7. Before getting into specifics here s a little history lesson. Since the NFL expanded the Playoff format in 1990 to include 12 teams only twice have as many as 8 teams repeated having made the Playoffs from one season to the next. In most seasons there have been only 6 or 7 repeat Playoff teams meaning that 5 or 6 teams that did not make Playoffs in one season did so the next.

2 In the preseason it is always easiest to make a case for last season s best teams to once again enjoy success. Yet history suggests that close to half of these teams will not repeat that success. In fact, the past decade shows the following. Of 2004's 12 Playoff teams only 5 made the Playoffs again in Of the dozen 2005 Playoff teams again just 5 repeated in Just 6 of 2006's Playoff teams made the Playoffs again in Only 5 of 2008's Playoff teams repeated from Just 6 of the dozen Playoff teams from 2008 made the Playoffs again last season. 7 of 2009's Playoff teams made them again in of 2010's Playoff teams made them again in was unusual in that it was only the second time since the Playoffs expanded that 8 teams made the Playoffs after having also made them a season earlier. Of the dozen teams to make the 2012 Playoffs, 7 of them made the Playoffs in 2013 and of the dozen teams that made the 2013 Playoffs 7 again made the Playoffs last season (2014). Here s a look at our projected standings, followed by some commentary on how we see the season unfolding, with thoughts on the Playoffs and the path traveled to Super Bowl 50 (* indicates projected Wild Card): AFC EAST W - L AFC North W - L AFC South W - L AFC West W - L New England 12-4 Baltimore 11-5 Indianapolis 12-4 Denver 11-5 Buffalo * 9-7 Cincinnati 9-7 Houston * 9-7 Kansas City 9-7 Miami 8-8 Pittsburgh 8-8 Tennessee 5-11 San Diego 7-9 N Y Jets 4-12 Cleveland 4-12 Jacksonville 3-13 Oakland 5-11 NFC East W - L NFC North W - L NFC South W - L NFC West W - L Philadelphia 11-5 Green Bay 12-4 Atlanta 10-6 Seattle 13-3 Dallas * 10-6 Minnesota * 10-6 New Orleans 9-7 Arizona 8-8 N Y Giants 8-8 Detroit 6-10 Carolina 7-9 San Francisco 6-10 Washington 4-12 Chicago 6-10 Tampa Bay 5-11 St Louis 6-10 From the early 1980's through the mid 1990's the NFC dominated the Super Bowl winning 15 of 16 between Super Bowls 15 and 31. The only AFC team to win during that stretch was the Los Angeles Raiders who, in Super Bowl 18 defeated Washington after a season in which the Redskins established a new record for most points scored, a record which lasted for 15 seasons. Since Denver ended the NFC stranglehold in Super Bowl 32 the AFC has won 11 of 18, the most recent coming last season New England defeated Seattle in one of the Super Bowl s most dramatic finishes. The NFC has won 5 of the last 8 Super Bowls. Seattle (9-2) and Green Bay (6-1) are the favorites to win Super Bowl 50 according to the odds posted at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas as of September 6. 4 other teams are held at odds of less than 10-1 as Indianapolis, New England and Philadelphia are each 8-1 with Denver at 9-1. The remaining 26 teams are priced at 14-1 or higher with the longest shots on the board being Jacksonville (300-1) and Tennessee (200-1). 7 other teams are held at odds of Odds to win the Conference Championship are roughly one half the Super Bowl odds. Several teams in each conference appear to have the talent, coaching and organization to be considered as Playoff teams and, if in the Playoffs, with the capability to get on that 3 or 4 game run that has led to a Super Bowl win more frequently than is generally perceived. As mentioned above, at the start of every season it s generally easy to make a case for the teams that made the Playoffs the previous season to do so once again. It s a classic case of what we remember last influencing our expectations for the future. Often it comes from a mindset that expects stability and continuity from one season to the next. But with such a short 16 game regular season schedule there is a very fine line between a winning season and a losing one. The talent is spread out rather evenly through the 32 NFL teams. There s not an overwhelmingly huge gap between the NFL s best teams and the ones at the bottom. Often, it s the ownership, management and coaching that can make a significant difference.

3 Notice how some of the most stable organizations seem to be contending for the Playoffs season after season, perhaps with an occasional down year, but not very many. And how some organizations flounder season after season despite repeated high draft choices and free agent signings that strengthen the roster. The fact is that there is significant turnover on a season to season basis in the composition of the NFL Playoff field. Again, as discussed above, since the Playoffs expanded from 10 to 12 teams in 1990 an average of 6 teams fail to repeat their Playoff appearance a season later. That s a turnover rate of 50 percent. Injuries have a huge impact on a team s fortunes throughout a season, especially those to key players that result in missed games. Clearly QB injuries are the most serious but injuries that necessitate adjustments along the offensive line or in the defensive backfield also have negative consequences more often than not. There s no way to predict which teams will face key injuries but that s where ownership and management play key roles. The ability to provide roster depth enables some teams to overcome injuries better than others. And that goes back to why there are a half dozen or so franchises that consistently are in Playoff contention season after season. Last season saw Arizona, Baltimore, Carolina, Cincinnati, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Green Bay, Indianapolis, New England, Pittsburgh and Seattle make the Playoffs. Which of these teams will make a return this season? And which will fall short? Here is the forecast for the 2015 NFL season. AFC East Until proven otherwise New England remains the team to beat. Even with Brady s suspension overturned the Pats will take the field with a chip on their shoulders and although there are concerns about a retooled defense coach Belichick will have the answers by the time November rolls around. Buffalo and Miami will vie for second place with the New York Jets quite possibly a distant last. The Bills appear to have the greater upside with one of the NFL s best defenses and an offense that might just be surprisingly better than expected. The Pats season win total is now 10.5 with the OVER priced at minus 130. The Pats probably win at least 11 games and should contend for the top seed in the AFC Playoffs. AFC North Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh all made the Playoffs last season and all three have been Playoff contenders for the past half decade. Of the three the Bengals may have the most talented roster but their concerns start if and when they make the Playoffs. Pittsburgh has a solid organization but faces numerous issues on defense, replacing key personnel both on the field and on the sidelines. Baltimore may have the best combination of talent and organization and is the call to win this Division with Cincinnati being more likely to challenge the Ravens than will be the Steelers. Cleveland should be a distant fourth in this Division although the Browns defense will keep them in many games and could be a good team to play UNDER the Total in many of their games. AFC South This Division is Indianapolis to lose and the weakness provided by both Tennessee and Jacksonville sets the path for the Colts to earn the top overall AFC seed. Houston should contend for a Wild Card and might challenge Indy for the Division title if injured RB Foster returns sooner than expected. QB is a concern but the defense will be one of the NFL s best. Tennessee should be stronger than Jacksonville but there should be a significant gap in the standings between the Colts/Texans and the Titans/Jags. AFC West Denver is the pre season favorite to win the Division although questions persist as to the strength and health of QB Manning who showed major signs of decline late last season and into the Playoffs. The Broncos will be more of a running team this season and possess a staunch defense which should compensate for any further decline in Manning s performance. Kansas City should present a greater challenge to the Broncos than San Diego although both the Chiefs and Chargers should be in contention for a Wild Card. Oakland will be improved this season but it may be asking too much for the Raiders to escape the cellar although Oakland may well be the best of the eight last place finishers and be undervalued on a week to week basis for much of the season.. NFC East Dallas and Philadelphia are clearly the top teams in this Division with a gap to the NY Giants and a similar gap to Washington. Dallas made a great leap last season, going from three straight seasons of 8 wins to 12. The Eagles have won 10 games in each of coach Chip Kelly s first two seasons and he made major personnel changes during the offseason. The Giants have major defensive concerns whereas

4 Washington has issues that permeate throughout the entire organization. Both the Cowboys and Eagles should contend for the Playoffs. NFC North Green Bay remains the class of this Division and should contend for the top overall NFC seed even after losing elite WR Nelson for the season. With QB Rodgers at the top of his game and a deep supporting cast the Packers should at least equal their projected 11 season wins and could surpass that total. Minnesota is a fashionable pick to pose the greatest challenge to the Pack and should challenge for a Wild Card. Detroit should take a step back from last season s 11-5 mark. Chicago may be one of the NFL s most intriguing teams as there is talent on the roster and with a new coach, defensively oriented John Fox. With a bit of tweaking the Bears could be a surprise challenger to make a serious Wild Card run. NFC South This was the NFL s weakest Division last season with Carolina winning the title despite going Both Atlanta and New Orleans are expected to rebound this season but it is still unlikely that the Division winner will have more than 10 wins. New Orleans offense is aging and their defense is a concern. Atlanta is an intriguing team with a potent offense and a new coach, Dan Quinn, who earned the job from his work in leading Seattle s top notch defense. Tampa Bay should be the weakest team in this Division as they turn to rookie QB W inston to lead the rebuilding process. Unlike last season, the Division winner in 2015 should have a winning record. NFC West Seattle is the again the team to beat as the Seahawks attempt to become the first Super Bowl loser to return to the Big Game the next season in more than two decades. Arizona is expected to present the biggest challenge as the Cards won 10 and 11 games in coach Arians first two seasons. But the Cards were a statistical anomaly last season, outgained by an astonishing 64 yards per game and suffered major losses from their defense in the offseason. That could open the door for St Louis to finally achieve some success under veteran coach Fisher. No team has been panned more than San Francisco, a fact reflected in the drop in their season win total from as high as 8 to their current level of 6.5 (with a heavy vig attached to the UNDER). Seattle should win this Division with ease and could be the only team with a winning record although the past 2 seasons showed Arizona cannot be counted out, especially if QB Palmer stays healthy. Ultimately the call is for New England, Baltimore, Indianapolis and Denver to win AFC Division titles with Buffalo and Houston earning Wild Cards. The four NFC Division winners are projected to be Philadelphia, Green Bay, Atlanta and Seattle with Dallas and Minnesota the Wild Card teams. The prediction in the AFC is for Baltimore to defeat Indianapolis in the AFC Title game. Since QB Flacco and coach Harbaugh arrived in 2008 the Ravens have made the Playoffs in 6 of 7 seasons, won a Super Bowl and are 7-5 SU in road Playoff games (which is a pretty amazing accomplishment when considered in the contest of historical home team Playoff success). Green Bay is the choice to defeat Seattle for the NFC Title to set up a Super Bowl between the Packers and the Ravens. The Packers bring a great deal of experience and continuity into the season and will find a replacement for the loss of Nelson as QB Rodgers has turned a number of lesser known names into star performers during his career. Both quarterbacks have a Super Bowl title and although Rodgers leads a deeper Green Bay offense the call is for Flacco and his Ravens to pull a minor upset, perhaps as a FG underdog, and win Super Bowl Baltimore is 8-1 to win the AFC and 16-1 to win the Super Bowl. Green Bay is 3-1 to win the NFC and 6-1 to win the Super Bowl. Often in making futures wagers there is a strategy to back an attractively priced team that has a legitimate shot at making the Playoffs with the intention, or at least the possibility, of hedging that play if your team is indeed in the Playoffs. Often this involves finding teams at odds of 30-1 or 40-1 or greater. Over the past decade or so futures pricing has changed to an extent such that most viable contenders are priced at 25-1 or less with teams that are considered to have a chance to achieve a.500 record (or perhaps 9-7) are now priced in the 30-1 to 40-1 range with teams not expected to have a winning record priced at odds of 50-1 and higher. In looking at the current odds from the Westgate the most attractively priced teams might be New Orleans

5 and Atlanta. Each is priced at 40-1 to win the Super Bowl and each is capable of winning the NFC South as there is no dominant team in that Division. The Saints rebounded well the last time they had a losing seasons. After winning 13, 11 and 13 games from 2009 through 2011 bountygate caused the Saints to go 7-9 in With coach Payton back on the sidelines the Saints went 11-5 in 2013 and won a road Wild Card game. Last season New Orleans finished 7-9 as QB Brees played through injury for much of the season. Although our forecast has the Saints finishing second in the NFC South at 9-7, that forecast has them finishing just a game behind Atlanta which provides a very thin margin of error and we could be wrong. Although our forecast has Cincinnati missing the Playoffs in the AFC despite a 9-7 record (missing out on a Wild Card on tie breakers to a pair of 9-7 teams, Buffalo and Houston) at 40-1 odds the Bengals could be worth a play if you are so inclined to speculate on a very talented team that has made the Playoffs in four straight seasons but has not won a Playoff game during this span. Our projected Playoff field has the following Super Bowl odds Atlanta (40-1), Baltimore (16-1), Buffalo (40-1), Dallas (14-1), Denver (9-1), Green Bay (6-1), Houston (40-1), Indianapolis (8-1), Minnesota (40-1), New England (8-1), Philadelphia (8-1) and Seattle (9-2). Last season we forecast New Orleans to defeat New England in Super Bowl 49. New Orleans did not even make the Playoffs, finishing second to Carolina by a half game in the weak NFC South. New England made it the Super Bowl, winning the Vince Lombardi Trophy in dramatic fashion to deny Seattle the first back to back Super Bowl wins since the Pats accomplished that feat in Super Bowls 38 and 39, a decade ago. How will the 2015 season play out? We ll know the answer in 5 months. In the meantime, best of luck to all of us this season. And as we get set to handicap the NFL this season there are several things to keep in mind. First, forget much of what you witnessed during the preseason. For the most part teams were more interested in preparing for the real games than in winning games that don t count. Many coaches, especially the experienced ones, did not want to show too much to upcoming opponents but rather to tinker and tweak in areas that needed improvement. In many cases those adjustments were very subtle and not obvious to the typical fan. Don t be guided in the first few weeks by pre season records or results. Also keep in mind that a great many games have random outcomes. Often each side will look like the right side during certain stretches and then the final scoring play of the game changes the pointspread result. Finally, keep in mind the following percentages. The pointspread matters in only about 17% of NFL games. In roughly 83% of the games the team that wins the game also covers the spread which, of course, includes outright upset wins by the underdog. In the NFL Favorites win and cover just under 48% of all games while Underdogs win outright (and thus obviously cover) just over 31% of the time. About 4% of games either end in pushes or are pick em games. Which leaves the 17% of all games in which the favored team wins but by less than the pointspread. COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: CINCINNATI - 6 ½ over Temple Cincinnati is off a win over FCS Alabama A&M while Temple is off of perhaps the biggest win in program history. The Owls last defeated Penn State in 1941 and trailed 10-0 early in last week s home game vs. the Nittany Lions. Temple then outscored PSU 27-0 for a satisfying win. This is the AAC opener for both teams and Cincy was the solid preseason pick to win the conference. The Bearcats are 3-0 vs Temple since 2012 when they became conference foes with 2 of the wins on the road. Cincinnati has been a solid program with 4 straight seasons of at least 9 wins and 4 straight Bowl trips. The Bearcats have a proven QB with a line that will provide better protection than did Penn State s last week when Temple recorded 10 sacks. This is also a natural letdown spot for Temple s kids while it s just the start of conference play for Cincy. Cincy wins Other Featured College Selections MISSISSIPPI STATE + 4 over Lsu Coach Mullen has build a solid program at Mississippi State and his Bulldogs have been to 5 straight Bowl games. They had a workmanlike win in their tuneup for this game while LSU s game against FCS McNeese State was cancelled due to weather. LSU is playing to

6 avenge a home loss to MSU last season, a loss that snapped a 14 game winning streak for the Tigers who had also defeated MSU in 21 of the prior 22 meetings. But MSU will also be motivated from their loss to LSU when they last met on this field 2 seasons ago. LSU is expected to again contend in the SEC West but with last week s cancellation there may be some rust as MSU has to be given an edge having had a tuneup while LSU opens their season with conference play. The recent success of MSU has them quite confident that they can compete with the SEC s elite teams. They also host FCS Northwestern State next week. LSU s game is tougher, a home opener against conference foe Auburn. Mississippi State wins CALIFORNIA - 12 ½ over San Diego State Cal has the potential to be a sleeper in the Pac 12 North and could be the main challenger to Oregon. The Bears have a solid QB and a coach (Sonny Dykes) who has been an offensive guru in his career. San Diego State is projected to be down this season and the Aztecs have seen their wins decrease from 9 to 8 to 7 the past 3 seasons. Cal has the edge on offense with neither team especially strong on defense. Both teams had relatively easy wins against FCS foes last week with Cal defeating Grambling SDSU defeated San Diego U After going 1-11 in his first season Dykes led his team to a 5-7 mark last season that included a pair of road wins over lower tier conference foes which partially fuels the enthusiasm for this season. Cal has the better overall talent that is finally being well coached. Though 8 wins may be their ceiling this is a favorable matchup. California wins AIR FORCE - 6 ½ over San Jose State Since current coach Calhoun took over from long time coach DeBerry in 2007 Air Force has been to Bowls in 7 of 8 seasons. After an injury plagued 2-10 season in 2013 Air Force rebounded to go 10-3 last season, capped by a win in the Idaho Potato Bowl. San Jose State has long been one of the weakest FBS programs with only an occasional winning season. After their season the Spartans dropped to 6-6 in 2013 and 3-9 last season. This is the first meeting between the teams since 1997 and is the MWC opener for both. Each team had easy home wins last week vs FCS foes that served as a tuneup for this contest. Air Force presents a unique challenge, especially for unfamiliar foes, due both to the playing altitude and the Air Force offense. Air Force was unbeaten at home last season and their conditioning should wear down the thin Spartans after halftime. Air Force wins Best of the Rest (Recommendations) Louisiana Tech Pick em over W KENTUCKY [1] LOUISVILLE - 12 ½ over Houston UTSA + 17 over Kansas State COLORADO STATE + 6 over Minnesota VIRGINIA + 11 ½ over Notre Dame Memphis -13 over KANSAS Bowling Green + 7 ½ over MARYLAND TEXAS TECH - 20 ½ over Utep Georgia State + 6 ½ over NEW MEXICO STATE Florida International + 7 ½ over INDIANA CONNECTICUT - 7 ½ over Army WISCONSIN - 33 over Miami Ohio Missouri - 10 ½ over ARKANSAS STATE Boise State - 2 ½ over BYU IOWA STATE + 3 ½ over Iowa AKRON + 13 over Pittsburgh Arizona - 11 ½ over NEVADA Oklahoma Pick em over TENNESSEE NEBRASKA - 27 ½ over South Alabama Central Florida + 19 over STANFORD The Rest (Opinions) FLORIDA ATLANTIC + 17 ½ over Miami Fla [2] Utah State + 13 ½ over Utah [2] FLORIDA STATE - 27 ½ over South Florida PENN STATE - 20 ½ over Buffalo Fresno State + 28 ½ over MISSISSIPPI GA SOUTHERN + 4 ½ over Western Michigan FLORIDA - 20 over East Carolina OHIO U + 3 ½ over Marshall

7 OHIO STATE - 40 over Hawaii CLEMSON - 17 over Appalachian State COLORADO - 13 over Massachusetts GEORGIA TECH - 28 ½ over Tulane Toledo + 21 ½ over ARKANSAS Kentucky + 7 ½ over SOUTH CAROLINA TEXAS A&M - 29 ½ over Ball State Rice + 15 ½ over TEXAS USC - 43 over Idaho Wake Forest + 4 ½ over SYRACUSE WYOMING - 13 ½ over Eastern Michigan Oregon State + 15 ½ over MICHIGAN Georgia - 20 ½ over VANDERBILT Middle Tennessee + 35 over ALABAMA North Texas + 4 ½ over SMU RUTGERS - 2 over Washington State MICHIGAN STATE - 3 ½ over Oregon NEW MEXICO - 4 over Tulsa UNLV + 29 ½ over Ucla [1] Thursday, September 5 [2] Friday, September 6 NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: ATLANTA + 3 over Philadelphia (Monday Night) Philadelphia has garnered much support as a surprise NFC champion as a result of the awesome offense displayed during preseason when many of coach Kelly s offseason personnel decisions were being evaluated. Following 5 straight winning seasons Atlanta played losing football the past 2 seasons and made a coaching change, bringing in defensive minded Quinn, addressing Atlanta s major concern. Despite the past 2 seasons, the Falcons extended their streak in home openers to 7 straight wins and covers, including 3 as home dogs. Note that while with Seattle, Quinn s defense held the Eagles to a season low 14 points in a road win, holding Philly to just 57 rushing yards and 82 passing yards! That should count for something as he prepares his new defense to face the NFL s must unorthodox offense. And with a pair of road games on deck at the Giants and Dallas this game carries even greater weight to start well. Atlanta wins Other Featured NFL Selections ST LOUIS + 4 over Seattle Seattle should play aggressively as they seek to erase the bitter memory of their Super Bowl defeat and try to defend their 2 straight NFC Titles. The Rams are expected to improve this season and should play with confidence in this opener. St Louis is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS at home against the Seahawks since Carroll took over as Seattle coach, including 2-1 SU & ATS the past 3 seasons since Seattle became a Super Bowl contender. Seattle has some personnel issues that are causing a distraction as the season begins and there did not seem to be the same team chemistry during August that marked their runs of the past 2 seasons. The Seahawks have their third defensive coordinator in 3 seasons and the Rams are expected to be improved on offense while still having a solid defense. Might Seattle also be looking ahead to next week s game at Green Bay? St Louis wins New Orleans + 2 ½ over ARIZONA New Orleans QB Brees played injured much of last season, a fact that came to light only after their disappointing 7-9 season ended. There is a new look to the Saints as TE Graham is now in Seattle but there are still a bevy of capable targets as well as what should be an improved ground game. Arizona s statistics suggested more of a 5-11 record than their actual 11-5 last season. They still lack a running game (have not averaged more than 3.6 ypr in any of the past 3 seasons). With major defensive losses, including defensive coordinator Bowles, Arizona is poised for regression whereas the Saints have not had back to back losing seasons in more than a decade. New Orleans should have success moving the football with a ground game that averaged 4.5 ypr last season against a defense that allowed 4.4 ypr. The gap between these defenses is not as great as the gap between the offenses which greatly favors the Saints. New Orleans wins SAN DIEGO - 2 ½ over Detroit Both San Diego s Rivers and Detroit s Stafford are a grade below elite status QBs but each is capable of putting up big numbers. Detroit has the top WR in Johnson but the Chargers have the better depth. Both offenses averaged less than 90 rushing yards per game last season which suggest most of their success in this game will come through the air and we could see a high scoring game. Detroit suffered some key defensive losses from last season, including DL Suh. San Diego coach

8 McCoy is known as a more aggressive play caller than Detroit coach Caldwell. The spot also favors San Diego which plays their next two games on the road. Detroit plays at Division rival Minnesota next week in a key early season Divisional contest. San Diego is 4-1 SU & ATS in their last 5 home openers while the Lions are 0-2 both SU & ATS in their last 3 road openers. San Diego wins Best of the Rest (Recommendations) BUFFALO + 3 over Indianapolis Carolina - 3 over JACKSONVILLE OAKLAND + 3 ½ over Cincinnati HOUSTON - 1 over Kansas City Tennessee + 3 over TAMPA BAY SAN FRANCISCO + 2 ½ over Minnesota (Monday) The Rest (Opinions) NEW ENGLAND - 7 over Pittsburgh (Thursday) N Y JETS - 3 over Cleveland Baltimore + 4 ½ over DENVER Green Bay - 6 ½ over CHICAGO Miami - 4 over WASHINGTON DALLAS - 5 ½ over N Y Giants Best of the NFL Totals (Recommendations) Pittsburgh/New England OVER 52 Green Bay/Chicago OVER 50 Cleveland/N Y Jets UNDER 40 Detroit/San Diego OVER 45 ½ St Louis/Seattle UNDER 41 ½ N Y Giants/Dallas OVER 51 ½ Money Line Recommendations College MISSISSIPPI ST COLORADO ST IOWA STATE Georgia State NFL BUFFALO ST LOUIS New Orleans ATLANTA NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. NOTE: All material is presented as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any federal, state or local law(s).