2017 B.E.S.T. Fantasy Football Draft Guide

Transcription

1 2017 B.E.S.T. Fantasy Football Draft Guide By: Nick Guarisco Fantasy football is stupid. We play a game where players like Bilal Powell, Danny Woodhead, and Golden Tate are all somehow seen as MORE VALUABLE than Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady the NFL s best and most important players in reality. Most of you who are taking the time to read this know that the reason Powell, Woodhead, and Tate are typically selected after Brady and Rodgers in fantasy drafts is a matter of supply and demand. As fantasy experts throughout the industry will explain: drafting Rodgers or Brady in Round 1 is a rookie move. They ll tell you it s a smarter strategy to spend early draft picks on more valuable and scarcer positions like running back or wide receiver because the advantage of having an elite QB is not nearly as important as having quality depth at RB and WR. And 1 G u a r i s c o

2 because there are PLENTY of quarterbacks who put up quality numbers, experts advise you to wait before addressing the position. Now stop reading and take a moment to think about what you just read. If you re a seasoned fantasy football veteran, this line of thinking probably seems totally normal to you. Should it, though? Imagine telling an NFL GM that you would rather focus on acquiring your second and third running back instead of Drew Brees in round 4. Think about the perplexed look on his face when you tell him that you can find quality quarterbacks later in the draft or even in free agency. That there s a surplus of good QBs in the league, so the position doesn t really matter that much. There comes a time where you have to put things in perspective. That perspective comes quickly for anyone who has ever tried to explain fantasy football strategy to someone who has never played before. Try explaining to an NFL fan that Bilal Powell, Danny Woodhead, and Golden Tate are MORE VALUABLE ASSETS THAN AARON RODGERS, TOM BRADY, AND DREW BREES. Their most likely response is to think this game was STUPID and makes ZERO sense. And they would be right. Mainstream fantasy football roster constructions are currently lagging behind the times. Essentially, as real football has become more dependent on strong QB play quarterback is without a doubt the most important position in all of sports running backs have become devalued to role players who split the workload and are dependent on the system. But this has had the EXACT OPPOSITE EFFECT in fantasy football. The mass-pass hysteria has created so many good statistical QBs that they are now a lot LESS valuable in fantasy football, even though they ve never been more valuable in REALITY. While most everyone in your fantasy league has a backup QB who throws for 4,000 yards and 25 TDs riding their bench all year because they can only start 1 QB, we re usually HOPING our 2 nd or 3 rd RB, who plays fewer than 50% of snaps on his own team, but who we have to start, is going to get 10 touches in his game. It s idiotic nowadays. Fantasy football is about statistics, so it s curious why in a league with so few bell cow RBs, where 62% of plays are pass plays, and over 80% of total yardage coming through the air, and at least 20 QBs putting up very respectable passing stats each year, that this game nevertheless continues to require you to start 2 or 3 RBs, and only 1 QB. Simply put, based on the way the NFL is played today it doesn t make sense! 2 G u a r i s c o

3 I mean come on, early Average Draft Positions in expert leagues have dudes like Samaje Perine (who?) going AHEAD of top-15 real-life QBs like Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, etc simply because your 4 th string RB is clearly more important in this game than your backup, or sometimes even your starting QB. It sounds so ridiculous when you say it out loud. It s time to stop sitting back and accepting this as normal. While the NFL has evolved, fantasy football has de-volved (*probably not a word) to even worse than the dinosaur ages. At some point, you have to stop answering this is way it s always been done and start asking WHY? What s wrong with the game? And how can we make it better? SUPER FLEX IS THE ANSWER Last year I tested out my version of what has been tabbed by industry experts as Super Flex leagues. That is, I added a Super Flex position (aka Offensive Player ) to the starting lineup, where you can play any offensive position in, INCLUDING A SECOND QB. My starting lineup now looks like this: QB RB RB WR WR FLEX SUPER FLEX (OP) TE K DST There are several excellent reasons to convert your league to a Super Flex league. First, because the Super Flex allows for much more lineup FLEXIBILITY and CREATIVITY. If you ve already selected Tom Brady, and you re in round 6 and you hate the best available RBs/WRs on the board, you can take Cam Newton if he would be your Best Player Available. Second, now for your second flex spot, you have to choose between a QB, WR, or RB. This can make lineup decisions more CHALLENGING, or it can help people out of a bind if they 3 G u a r i s c o

4 have a rough BYE week situation or injuries to their skilled positions. This makes lineup decisions and coaching calls more difficult and more crucial. Third, Super Flex can make the draft more INTERESTING AND UNPREDICTABLE. League members aren t constrained in the draft to oblige by one archaic strategy that everyone is robotically following. Roster Flexibility is key. Fourth, QBs are more fun to watch and evaluate than most WRs/RBs. Everyone knows them and focuses on them because of their value in the real game, so there s a certain increase in the level of entertainment you get out of the game expanding the league to possibly starting 2 QBs or having your opponent start 2 against you. In other words, it s more fun to watch Tyrod Taylor or Carson Wentz play and score meaningful points than a 2 nd flex option of Danny Woodhead or Marvin Jones. What are the drawbacks of Super Flex lineups? There are two criticisms. 1) Everyone would want to use a second Quarterback in the Super Flex spot because QBs score the most points. This makes them too valuable. MY SOLUTION: Keep the Super Flex, but Lower your QB scoring. The goal, in my opinion, should be to raise the value of QBs generally because they are devalued, but not to the point where it completely changes the dynamic of your league. Therefore, if you do NOT want to make the league a 2-QB league by default, I WOULD LOWER QUARTERBACK SCORING SIGNIFICANTLY so it aligns with the values of RB/WR scoring. Because the values are even, you want your league members have the legitimate OPTION of playing a second QB in that Super Flex spot, or playing a RB/WR/TE there if your depth/matchups at those spots are better. For example, lower your Passing TDs to a value of 3-4 points, and your Passing Yardage to points for every 50 yards passing. You can mess with a variety of combinations to get the point values for each position to the point where you think they are fairest. Personally, I think the ideal scoring system would have the scoring totals of QBs, RBs, and WRs, near even, maybe with QBs scoring slightly more (note that there will still be a greater demand for RBs/WRs in drafts because of positional scarcity and because you re forced to use a RB/WR in the other Flex). In my scoring (a non-ppr system with bonuses and lowered QB scoring), the QB12 last year had 200 points, the RB12 scored 185 points, and the WR12 scored 191 points. This more 4 G u a r i s c o

5 evenly distributed weight on each position, which will enable roster flexibility and draft creativity (more on this in a moment) 2) The other main criticism of Super Flex leagues is that there aren t enough starting QBs in other words, if everyone in a 12-team league drafts 3 QBs now (1 starter, 1 possible flex starter, and 1 backup), then it adds up to 36 QBs yet there are only 32 starting QBs in the NFL. The Math doesn t seem to add up MY SOLUTION: To eliminate that legitimate concern, I would place a ROSTER LIMIT OF TWO HEALTHY QUARTERBACKS PER TEAM. This means that teams cannot have more than 2 QBs on their active roster at one point unless one of their starters is placed in the I.R. spot first, in which case they can add a third QB temporarily until the QB on I.R. is active again. With this roster limit of 2 healthy QBs per team, in 12-team leagues there will ALWAYS be about 8 starting QBs in free agency at all times, alleviating any concern of not having enough QBs per team. Plus, this is not a 2-QB league. This is a Super Flex league. Even if there were no starting QBs in free agency, you still have the option of playing a RB/WR/TE in the Super Flex spot. IN CONCLUSION, Fantasy Football needs to catch up with the times. It s a pass-first league, and QBs should be more valuable. As a result, Super Flex is what the fantasy football industry is rightfully trending toward. Super Flexes will be commonplace / default settings among the mainstream sites in fewer than 5 years. If you re serious about fantasy football like I am, you want to be ahead of the curve, not slow to adapt, and you want the best experience possible. Super Flex leagues are both. I strongly recommend trying out a Super Flex league (with lowered QB scoring). Either way, I hope I have convinced most of you to at least be somewhat excited, intrigued, and interested to try out some version of Super Flex. If not, I would nevertheless be quite surprised if you felt the same way after trying it, as even those who voted against it in my other leagues last year ended up LOVING it. Super Flex with lowered QB scoring is the way Fantasy Football should be played now. PLEASE DO NOT HESITATE to ask me questions if you are thinking about trying it out in your league but are curious about settings or need help with scoring. I m happy to answer. 5 G u a r i s c o

6 Show off your Flex Appeal, and encourage your league commissioner to switch to a Super Flex format with lowered QB scoring this year! Your Playoff System Stinks! Implement the G9 Playoff System: The purpose of the playoffs should be to reward one of the best teams in the regular season that also finishes strongly in the playoffs. But so many people struggle to come up with the best way to accomplish this, as one-week individual matchups are too luck-driven and often driven by seeding, BYE weeks are too important and don t always go to the best teams, and there s always that pesky little question of what to do with Week 17 The bottom line is that most playoff systems suck, and after thousands of complaints, ESPN finally realized this a few seasons ago when they changed their default system to two 2- week matchups that take place from Weeks While this format is certainly an improvement over the prior single elimination tournament, it still has its flaws. Whether you re a commissioner who has ever been yelled at because your playoff system is whack, an annual playoff contender who never seems to take home the trophy, or a regular old league member who is open to new playoff system ideas The G9 Playoff System is worth considering: WHEN: Weeks (the playoffs last three weeks) ENTRY: The top-4 teams in the standings at the end of the Week 14 automatically make the playoffs. A 5TH TEAM WILDCARD can clinch a playoff berth if they achieve BOTH of these qualifications: The 5th Team Wildcard must have a record at or above.500 (7-7 or better), AND The 5th Team Wildcard must have more points than at least two of the playoff teams. If no other teams after the top-4 have met both of these requirements, the playoffs will proceed with four teams. HOW THE G9 PLAYOFF SYSTEM WORKS: Each team presumably goes into the playoffs at 0-0. There are no individual matchups between two teams in the playoffs. Every playoff team plays every playoff team each week (weeks 15, 16, and 17). So if four teams make the playoffs, every team would accumulate three results (wins or losses) for each of the three weeks in the playoffs. The team with the best overall record in the playoffs will be declared the league champion. Perhaps this is better explained with a demonstration: 6 G u a r i s c o

7 If one team outscores the other three playoff teams in week 15, that team would go 3-0 for that week. If they outscored only one team, they would be 1-2, and so on. A coach s overall win/loss record throughout the playoffs is compiled for weeks 15, 16 and 17. By the end of the three weeks, each team should have a total of 9 games played. The team with the best overall playoff record will be declared the winner. TIE-BREAKERS IN THE PLAYOFFS: If there is a tie in the 9-game standings (if two teams finish 5-4, for instance) the tie-breaker goes to the team with the most total points in regular season PLUS playoffs. This tie-breaking procedure rewards teams for good seasons. Think of this as the homefield advantage for the better team throughout the season. G9 rewards the best teams all year (determined by total points and not schedule-based head-to-head record) by providing them a home field advantage of sorts in the playoffs if two teams are finish evenly in the playoffs. It s a perfect medium between regular seeding with no BYE week for the top teams (which isn t an advantage at all, really) and giving the top 2 teams a BYE week, which is TOO much of an advantage. G9 also reduces the impact of Week 17 sit-outs, while not eliminating them. We don t want to overhaul the entire system or eliminate a week of football (we only get 17 of them every year!) solely because of the possibility exists that 2-3 players MIGHT rest in week 17. Plus, we are forced to deal with variables every week; that s the nature of fantasy football. G9 keeps Week 17 relevant because it s still a legitimate and meaningful week of the NFL season, but because there are 9 mini-games that result from Weeks 15-17, the concern and impact of getting screwed by your star player who rests in Week 17 are minimized. I created the G9 Playoff System 11 years ago and applied it to every league I ve commissioned since, and I have NEVER gotten a single (NOT ONE) complaint about the system. Everyone loves it. You will too. Again, encourage your Commish to adopt the G9 Playoff System! Don t hesitate to contact me if you have any questions about it or need help implementing it! General Philosophy & Draft Strategy Notes: 1. It doesn t matter WHEN you pick certain players; it matters WHO you pick. a. Player ranks are overrated. In the end, your draft is made up of Hits and Misses. Half the picks in every round will be misses. Misses are cut replaced by free agents. 7 G u a r i s c o

8 b. Perceived value of certain players is based on rankings that end up being completely inaccurate anyway. c. Don t be afraid to reach for players you like. As long as that player hits, it doesn t matter how high you selected him. 2. Any draft strategy works if you select the right players. 3. Safety First How to spend early round picks: a. RBs on winning teams and/or with good QBs b. WRs with good QBs c. Rule of Thumb: With premium picks, steer away from poor QB play. So many early picks are ruined by a bad situation. 4. Risk Later go for gold in later rounds. 5. Schedules are a piece of the puzzle, if used correctly, more important for RBs/DSTs than QBs and WRs. 6. Players who finished strong last season tend to carry over production to this season. 7. Discourage drafting players coming off significant knee injuries. a. Usually the NEXT year is the time to pounce, when regained 100% explosiveness and ADP is low. 8. Discourage spending early picks on free agents who just signed $$$ deal with new team. a. Usually the NEXT year is the time to pounce, after a year of learning new offense, timing down, when expectations are lower, and motivation to rebound is higher. 9. Discourage spending early picks on players who missed large portion of offseason due to injury / holdout a. Not as focused, more likely to be out shape, get injured, lack timing/rhythm w/ QB. 10. Encourage taking advantage of injury-prone stigmas. Injury-prone labels = possible discount value. 11. Discourage filling out RB/WR position early in drafts. a. For example, drafting WR-WR-WR to open pigeon holes your board. 8 G u a r i s c o

9 Small Board Quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers Tom Brady** -- Russell Wilson** -- Cam Newton -- Ben Roethlisberger Dak Prescott Jameis Winston Marcus Mariota* -- Eli Manning* Carson Palmer* -- Sam Bradford Running Backs: Le Veon Bell* David Johnson -- LeSean McCoy* Jay Ajayi* Melvin Gordon Ezekiel Elliot* -- Marshawn Lynch Isaiah Crowell Dalvin Cook** -- 9 G u a r i s c o

10 Joe Mixon* -- Adrian Peterson Doug Martin** Ameer Abdullah Paul Perkins -- Derrick Henry** Kareem Hunt** -- Rex Burkhead** Thomas Rawls* Alvin Kamara* (PPR only) -- Jamaal Williams* Wide Receivers: Julio Jones* Antonio Brown Odell Beckham Michael Thomas* -- Jordy Nelson A.J. Green Dez Bryant* Amari Cooper Doug Baldwin** -- Brandin Cooks Keenan Allen Terrelle Pryor -- Stefon Diggs*** Kelvin Benjamin* -- Martavis Bryant Tyreek Hill -- DeVante Parker** Corey Davis -- Cole Beasley (PPR only) G u a r i s c o

11 Paul Richardson Tight Ends: Rob Gronkowski -- Travis Kelce* -- Jordan Reed* Jimmy Graham* -- Zach Ertz Tyler Eifert -- Austin Hooper* Coby Fleener* Kickers: Stephen Gostkowski** -- Will Lutz Defenses: Seattle Seahawks* -- New England Patriots* -- Jacksonville Jaguars* -- Pittsburgh Steelers*** *** = Number of Asterisks indicates how many teams I ve drafted this player on so far. I still have two drafts left and will keep this updated throughout the draft process. 11 G u a r i s c o

12 Round-By-Round Targets (PPR) ROUND ONE (1-12+) 1 Le Veon Bell 2 David Johnson 5 Julio Jones 3 Antonio Brown 4 Odell Beckham 11 Michael Thomas 7 LeSean McCoy 16 Jay Ajayi 12 Melvin Gordon ROUND TWO (13-24+) 9 A.J. Green 8 Jordy Nelson 19 Rob Gronkowski 18 Dez Bryant 20 Amari Cooper 17 Doug Baldwin 29 Ezekiel Elliot ROUND THREE (25-36+) 49 Travis Kelce 42 Aaron Rodgers 43 Tom Brady 26 Brandin Cooks 31 Marshawn Lynch 28 Isaiah Crowell 33 Keenan Allen 30 Terrelle Pryor ROUND FOUR (37-48+) 50 Dalvin Cook 38 Jordan Reed 51 Joe Mixon ROUND FIVE (49-60+) QB6 Russell Wilson 60 Stefon Diggs 57 Kelvin Benjamin ROUND SIX (61-72+) 77 Jimmy Graham (TE8) 63 Martavis Bryant 59 Tyreek Hill ROUND SEVEN (73-84+) QB7 Cam Newton 94 DeVante Parker 12 G u a r i s c o

13 73 Adrian Peterson 70 Ameer Abdullah 104 Doug Martin ROUND EIGHT (85-96+) 100 Kareem Hunt 124 Derrick Henry 91 Tyler Eifert 109 Zach Ertz ROUND NINE & TEN ( ) QB11 Dak Prescott QB14 Ben Roethlisberger QB9 Jameis Winston QB12 Marcus Mariota Rounds ROUND ELEVEN (121+) 147 Stephen Gostkowski K3 DST2 Seattle Seahawks Why Stephen Gostkowski is a Kicker worth reaching for this year Never have I ever advocated for drafting a kicker earlier than the last two rounds of your draft. This year, however, I believe Stephen Gostkowski is an exception to the rule to wait on kickers. Kickers tend to be a total crapshoot on a week-to-week basis, but there are two things I m looking for in a kicker to ensure consistency: 1. You want kickers that play on a good offense with a good quarterback. The logic here is simple: regardless of whether its extra points or field goals, kickers need the OPPORTUNITY to score points in order to do so, and good offenses with good quarterbacks tend to lead to more kicking opportunities. This isn t to say that every great QB will yield good numbers for his kicker. But most Top-12 Kickers at season s end are on team s with at quarterbacks who at are at least solid. For example, QBs who supported last season s Top-12 Kickers included Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, and Tom 13 G u a r i s c o

14 Brady. There are a few exceptions every season (the three exceptions in 2016 were Joe Flacco, Carson Wentz, and Brock Osweiler kickers), but for the most part the Top-12 kickers are made up of good QBs who can support plenty of opportunities for scoring. 2. You want kickers that play on winning teams. Again, this comes down to opportunity. A negative game script (when your kicker s team is losing) can limit his scoring opportunities in the second halves of games. Think about it: when your team is losing, they may be forced to score touchdowns instead of settle for field goals. Losing teams will bypass kicking chances by going for it on 4 th down in order to make up a deficit on the scoreboard. And when a team that is losing does score a touchdown, they might be forced to go for two instead of kicking the extra point. On the other foot, teams that are winning do not have this problem. Teams that are winning are happy with taking the points and settling for field goals. This may seem obvious, but teams that win their games typically had more opportunities to kick, which is the only way kickers can score points. Last season, ZERO of the Top-12 Kickers played on a team that finished worse than 7-9, and 9 of the Top-12 kickers played on teams that finished 8-8 or better. This is both a season-long AND a weekly philosophy. The rule of thumb here is that you are streaming kickers, you should never start a kicker in a game his team is expected to lose. So channel your inner Mike Singletary and remember: I WANT WINNERS! With those 2 kicking guidelines in mind, you may begin to see why Stephen Gostkowski may be valuable. Gostkowski s kicking opportunities are supported by Tom Brady in an offense that gets Rob Gronkowski back healthy and just added Brandin Cooks. Simply put, the Pats stand to score A LOT of points this year. Furthermore, the Patriots have a legitimate chance to undefeated this season, which would make negative game scripts a rarity, making Gostkowski a safe bet for points each week, regardless of opponent. Ok, but the Patriots are always good on offense, and they always win. So why go Gost THIS year? Excellent question, readers in my imagination. The answer is because Gostkowski is cheaper this year. You see, prior to last season, Gostkowski had finished as THE NUMBER ONE KICKER FOUR YEARS IN A ROW. But because Gostkowski is coming off a fluky down season in which he started slow, due in part to Brady s suspension, he s not even ranked as the #1 kicker on ESPN this year. He s ranked as the #3 kicker. Matt Bryant and Justin Tucker are ranked ahead of him. The impact of this ranking is two-fold: First, kickers are going later in general this year because there is no clear-cut top option. Most people who are ambitious enough to pop the kicker cherry in drafts do not want to select the third-ranked kicker in doing so, and they don t think Matt Bryant will replicate his K1 season, and while most people love Justin Tucker, they know enough to realize that Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense are sketchy sources of scoring. The combination of these three factors means that the Taco of your fantasy league isn t as Gung-ho to take the first kicker. Therefore, whereas the first kicker in many leagues is taken 14 G u a r i s c o

15 around pick 100 overall (it s a mind thing; people who know they shouldn t take kickers early feel more justified in doing so once they see triple digits on the board), THIS YEAR I ve noticed it s far more common that the first kicker is taken in the s range (which is a more appropriate spot). Second, when that guy finally does take the first kicker, it may not even be Gostkowski. This is huge, because it s a siren; it sounds the alarm that it s time to take Gostkowski with your next pick. In sum, Gostkowski was the top-ranker four seasons in a row before last year. He s supported by what looks to be an amazing offense on a team that could go undefeated, giving him PLENTY of scoring opportunities. And most importantly, he s on a limited time only 1-year sale with a discounted price around picks ~ , after the talent pool drops off, so you don t look like a fool taking him in Round 9-10 when plenty of flex options are still available. Get Gost, Get it done. Oh, and if he gets taken, don t reach for another top-rated kicker. Just wait until the one of the last two rounds of the draft as usual to take Saints kicker Will Lutz. Lutz quietly finished as the 5 th best kicker last season as a rookie, and he is supported by Drew Brees and the Saints annually high-scoring offense. After a slow start to the season, Lutz scored 7 or more points in 10 of his final 12 games, ranking as K3 during that span. His ESPN rank is 11 th, so you can wait until after most teams take their kicker to select Lutz. KICKER STRATEGY: Stephen Gostkowski in Rounds IF NOT, Will Lutz in Rounds IF NOT, wait until the last round, pick anyone, and play matchups using the rules above or by asking me who to use at kicker each week on my Start/Sit Facebook Live chats on Sunday mornings. DEFENSES Seattle Seahawks (DST2) The Seahawks underwhelmed last season, finishing as DST8, due in large part to injuries to three key starters. DE Michael Bennett DNP weeks 8-12, FS Earl Thomas DNP weeks 12-18, and SS Kam Chancellor DNP weeks 6-9. The drop-off in this defense s play when the Hawks were without their All-Pro safeties was noticeable on the field, and the analytics only confirmed the significance of their absences. This a completely different defense when Bennett, Thomas, and Chancellor are healthy. Seattle had finished as a Top-5 DST in each of the three seasons prior to And they are also due for positive regression in the touchdown department, as Seattle only had 1 DTD last season, a number that surely will rise in The Seahawks also get to play the Rams and 49ers twice, as well as the Texans and Jaguars weak offenses. These things make me comfortable with taking the plunge on the Seahawks as the first or second DST off the board. Depending on draft flow, I start thinking about them around picks ~ ish. 15 G u a r i s c o

16 SEA SCHEDULE = gb, SF, ten, BYE, nyg, HOU, WAS, ari, ATL, sf, PHI, jax, LAR, dal, ARI New England Patriots (DST7) The Patriots defense seems to be on my Small Board every season because they are annually underappreciated. Last season, they were ranked similarly, and they managed to finish as DST3 despite failing to score a single defensive touchdown. Do not underestimate this, as the Patriots could just as easily score 5 or 6 DTDs this season. Constantly aided by positive game scripts, the Pats winning ways allow them to amass sacks and turnovers while opposing offenses are forced to pass while trailing late in games. Plus, they get to play Jay Cutler s Dolphins, the rebuilding Bills, and tanking Jets twice a piece! Always good but never great, I have no problem with reaching for the Patriots defense a round or two after the defense run starts, provided that this occurs after pick ~130 ish. NE SCHEDULE = KC, no, HOU, CAR, tb, nyj, ATL, LAC, bye, den, oak, MIA, buf, mia, pit, BUF, NYJ Jacksonville Jaguars (DST9) This DST received great news this offseason when ESPN finally decided that defenses shouldn t be penalized for points allowed when their own offense s quarterback throws an interception returned for a touchdown. Considering Blake Bortles throws multiple pick-6s a year, this will be beneficial. On a serious note, Jacksonville added 3 big name free agents DT Calais Campbell, SS Barry Church, and CB A.J. Bouye and they are now surprisingly loaded with talent on D. The team will have an old school approach now that Tom Coughlin is the GM: run the ball and play good defense. There will be some games that Jacksonville loses because their offense can t keep up, but I believe the Jaguars will be a good matchup play for quite a few games this season. Indeed, they face the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL in Most importantly, an ADP of DST9 means you can wait around for them, ideally selecting them in Rounds JAX SCHEDULE = HOU, TEN, BAL, nyj, pit, lar, ind, BYE, CIN, LAC, cle, ari, IND, SEA, HOU, sf, ten Pittsburgh Steelers (DST15) The Steelers have been one of my favorite picks in the final two rounds of drafts because 1) they open with the Cleveland Browns; 2) they face bottomhalf QBs in each of their first 5 games; 3) they finished strongly last season; and 4) they are expected to win a lot of games, thus having a favorable game script allowing them to accumulate more sacks and turnovers. Because all three defenses listed above have some early season challenges, the Steelers attractive early season schedule complements them perfectly, so don t be afraid to pair SEA/NE/JAX with Pittsburgh late. At DST15, the Steelers can often be had in the final two rounds of the draft, either as a complementing pair or a last-resort DST1 you can open the season with. PIT SCHEDULE = cle, MIN, chi, bal, JAX, kc, CIN, det, BYE, ind, TEN, GB, cin, BAL, NE, hou, CLE Defenses with favorable Week 1 Matchups (for matchup streamers): Panthers (@SF, + vs. BUF in week 2) 16 G u a r i s c o

17 Bengals (vs. BAL, + vs. HOU in week 2) Buccaneers (@MIA, + vs. CHI in week 2) Chargers (@DEN, + vs. MIA in week 2) Steelers (@CLE) Bills (vs. NYJ) Streaming Defenses and Kickers Against the Jets: If you haven t heard, the Jets stink. I ve never seen a worse roster or a worse quarterback situation in 16 years of following the NFL, and I believe they are a true candidate for a winless, 0-16 season (albeit more likely 2-14). Either way, all the evidence suggests this team is tanking. Wouldn t it be nice if your fantasy defense could play against Christian Hackenberg, Bryce Petty or Josh McCown (i.e. the winner of the Jets QB battle) most weeks? In addition, the Jets have a horrible offensive line, and the top pass catchers on this team s hideous depth chart are Robby Anderson, Jalin Marshall, Charone Peake, and TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins. On the Kicker side of things, wouldn t it be nice if you re kicker was nearly guaranteed plenty of opportunities to kick against the worst team in the league most weeks? Try streaming kickers and defenses that play against the Jets. New York Jets Opponents: Week 1 Buffalo Bills DST / Stephen Hauschka Week 2 Oakland Raiders DST / Sebastian Janikowski Week 3 - vs. Miami Dolphins DST / Andrew Franks Week 4 - vs. Jacksonville Jaguars / Jason Myers Week 5 Cleveland Browns / Week 6 - vs. New England Patriots / Stephen Gostkowski Week 7 Miami Dolphins / Andrew Franks Week 8 - vs. Atlanta Falcons / Matt Bryant Week 9 - vs. Buffalo Bills / Stephen Hauschka Week 10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Nick Folk Week 11 - BYE Week 12 - vs. Carolina Panthers / Graham Gano or Harrison Butker Week 13 - vs. Kansas City Chiefs / Cairo Santos Week 14 Denver Broncos / Brandon McManus Week 15 New Orleans Saints / Will Lutz Week 16 - vs. Los Angeles Chargers / Josh Lambo Week 17 New England Patriots / Stephen Gostkowski The Jets only plays 6 games against teams with DSTs drafted in the Top-12, and they only 17 G u a r i s c o

18 play 5 games against teams with Kickers drafted in the Top-12. This means many of these kickers and defenses will be available in free agency to add prior to their matchup with the Jets, at least initially. If you have open roster spots, it may be wise to plan ahead add whichever DST is facing the Jets in the future. The key for beating your competition to the Jets opponent s DST is to work two weeks in advance, as you are less likely to get the Jets opponent DST if you wait until the week of (because all of the DST streamers in your league will be competing for them). To illustrate, let s say we ve just finished Week 1, and free agency opens for Week 2. Of course, everyone will make a play for the Raiders DST, the Jets Week 2 opponent. Maybe you get them, maybe you don t. However, to avoid this weekly competition to stream the Jets opponent DST, assuming you have a space to stash 2 DSTs, the smart play would be to add the Dolphins DST (the Jets Week 3 opponent) to lock up the Jets matchup ahead of your competition. Note that I do not think this is a smart tactic to secure the Jets opponent s Kicker. You can find good kicker plays every week. BACKUP QBs IF YOU DRAFTED QB EARLY: Try to pair him with a backup who has schedule that complements your starter s schedule. In other words, you want to target a backup QB who plays easy opponents during your starters problematic weeks. For example, you can maximize your total QB output by drafting backups who play against the Saints or the Lions when your starter plays Seattle, Denver, or has his BYE week. Because you draft an early QB with the idea in mind that you ll rarely ever sit him (barring injury), your backup QB is only as good as how much he can help you during the one or two weeks you won t be using your starter. Note that it s not necessary to draft a Backup QB if you don t want to spend draft capital on one. You re welcome to just play the waiver wire when your starter s BYE week is approaching. I ve provided the best option for either strategy. Aaron Rodgers Week 8 BYE PAIR WITH: Andy Dalton (IND), Sam Bradford (cle), Carson Wentz (SF) Tom Brady Week 9 BYE, Week PAIR WITH: Jameis Winston (no, NYJ), Eli Manning (LAR, sf), Matt Stafford (gb, CLE), Tyrod Taylor (nyj, NO) Drew Brees Week 5 BYE PAIR WITH: Sam Bradford (chi), Dalton (BUF), Russell Wilson Week 6 BYE PAIR WITH: Marcus Mariota (IND), Matt Stafford (NO), Sam Bradford (GB) 18 G u a r i s c o

19 IF YOU DRAFTED QB LATE: One strategy I like is waiting on QB until about teams have drafted their starter (likely rounds depending on how fast backup QBs are going in your draft), and then drafting TWO borderline starting QBs to pair and play the matchups with all season. With this strategy, you ideally want to be one of the last teams in your league to draft your starting QB and one of the first teams to draft your backup QB. This strategy doubles your chances of hitting on a breakout QB, doubles your chances on avoid bad matchups, and most importantly, allows you to avoid spending high draft capital on an early round QB. Keep in mind: THE SMALLER THE LEAGUE, THE LESS IMPORTANT QUARTERBACKS ARE. It s recommend to hold off on drafting QBs early in 10-team leagues. Here are a few recommended QBs in that QB12-24 range to pair: Dak Prescott (QB11) Many are expecting Prescott to take a huge step back from an amazing rookie year because Dallas faces a much more difficult schedule this season, but I don t necessarily view this as a bad thing from a fantasy perspective. With the Cowboys constantly leading in games, Dak finished near last in passing attempts per game among starting QBs. Ezekiel Elliot is expected to miss the first six games of the season, which means the Cowboys won t be as dependent on the run. In addition, Prescott played five games without Dez Bryant last season. While I m not going to pretend he won t regress from an efficiency standpoint as an NFL QB, I could see his fantasy PPG remaining similar simply because he ll be forced to do more. Prescott was QB6 in PPG last season. The Cowboys schedule is brutal but no one is forcing you to start him weeks 1-3. Prescott is a great buy-low after that hump. Marcus Mariota (QB12) Mariota had a sick stretch between weeks 5-12 where he was QB3 last season. His schedule is more challenging this season (he beat up on a lot of bad teams last season), and the Titans commitment to running the ball may prevent him from breaking into elite status. Despite the capped ceiling, Tennessee added WRs Eric Decker and Corey Davis to boost Mariota s supporting cast the dude was throwing to guys like Tajae Sharpe, Andre Johnson and Harry Douglas last season. In addition, Mariota can do damage with his legs. He has a very tough stretch of games between weeks 2-4 (@JAX, so he will probably get off to a slow start which is why I recommend pairing him but his schedule clears up after that and he should finish as a Top 12 QB. Ben Roethlisberger (QB14) Big Ben gets a lot of heat among experts in the industry for his injury history and his poor home/road splits (re: 20-5 TD/INT ratio at home last year, 8-9 TD/INT on the road), but this offense is loaded with talent now that Martavis Bryant has been reinstated. With Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Le Veon Bell, and an excellent O-line, it will be difficult for Big Ben NOT to score points. Ben Roethlisberger s splits with Martavis 19 G u a r i s c o

20 Bryant are attractive. He has averaged just passing yards, 1.78 touchdowns, and 7.95 yards per attempt without Bryant over the past three seasons, but his rates balloon to yards, 2.11 touchdowns, and 8.39 YPA with Martavis playing. He should have his fair share of big games this season, and he s the perfect QB to pair because if you play your cards right, you can avoid some of his road clunkers. Big Ben s per-game fantasy finishes of QB7, QB9, and QB5 over the past three years display his upside when healthy. He s my favorite QB being drafted after the Top 12. Eli Manning (QB17) His supporting cast consists of Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Shane Vereen. The Giants have no running game to speak of, and they will be relying on Manning to move the ball, score. It may not always be pretty (Eli s play was quite ugly last season), but Eli could legitimately lead the NFL in pass attempts. Volume alone should make him a Top 12 QB. I m sensing a Kirk Cousins like season great for fantasy, just OK for reality. Carson Palmer (QB20) A lot went wrong for Palmer last season. His O-line was bad, his arm was shot after overextending it last summer, and his WRs let him down. A year and half ago, Palmer finished as QB5 and was a legitimate NFL MVP candidate. His upside is apparent as a gunslinger who was QB8 from weeks 8-17 but finished as QB20 because a slow start and a missed game. The Cardinals have praised Palmer this offseason, saying his arm is in much better shape. While his supporting cast remains lacking, the Cardinals have one of the easiest passing schedules in the NFL. Particularly attractive is Palmer s opening slate of games. He opens DAL, SF. He could be a Top-5 QB at the quarter mark of the season, making him PERFECT pair with Marcus Mariota, Big Ben, or Dak Prescott, who have some skeletons in their early season schedules. Sam Bradford (QB24) This is only the second time in Sam Bradford s entire career that he retains the same offensive coordinator as he had in the season prior. Considering the Vikings total lack of running game and offensive line protection, what Bradford did last season after being traded for only days before the 2016 season was extremely impressive. Now, Bradford has a healthy Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph, Dalvin Cook, and an improved O-line at his disposal. OC Pat Shurmur LOVES throwing the football. The Vikings have the easiest passing schedule in the NFL this season, so there will be plenty of weeks with favorable matchups. Bradford s cost is free, making him a great QB2 pickup late in your drafts. One of my favorite sleepers this season, I think Bradford could legitimately post lowend QB1 numbers. Other Recommended Schedule-based Pairings: Marcus Mariota & Dak Prescott Marcus Mariota & Andy Dalton Ben Roethlisberger & Matt Stafford or Carson Palmer Dak Prescott & Carson Palmer or Sam Bradford Matt Stafford & Carson Palmer 20 G u a r i s c o

21 Philip Rivers & Carson Palmer Eli Manning & Sam Bradford Andy Dalton & Sam Bradford SLEEPERS (ADP >100+) Derrick Henry (ADP: 110) Not just a DeMarco Murray handcuff. Murray has received a substantial workload over the last three seasons and began to wear down with minor nagging injuries late last year. Henry averaged 10 carries a game following the Titans Week 13 BYE (just 6.1 carries a game in Weeks 1-12), and he scored 3 of his 5 TDs in the four games after the BYE week. If Murray goes down, Derrick Henry is a touchdown-scoring leaguewinner behind a great O-line on a run-committed team. I think it s possible these two split the work 65/45, with Henry being a preferred goal line option. No matter how you slice it, Henry is a player on the rise. Kareem Hunt (ADP: 105) I listed Hunt among by DRAFT CRUSHES in April because he s an underrated, all-purpose back who is shifty enough to elude defenders, strong enough to break tackles, and showed incredible vision and balance at Toledo. I couldn t be more in love with his destination in Kansas City. Andy Reid has a propensity for putting his RBs (be it Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, Jamaal Charles, Spencer Ware) in excellent positions for fantasy production. The Chiefs traded up to get Hunt after Ware faded down the stretch following his hot start - Ware averaged only 3.7 YPC in his final 8 games after averaging 5.6 YPC in his first 8 games. There s a place for Spencer Ware, but ultimately the writing is on the wall. I strongly believe it s not a matter of IF Ware will be replaced by Hunt this season; it s a matter of when. And when that happens (it may be midseason), Hunt has a Top 10 outlook going forward. Corey Davis (ADP: 110) An absolute freak in college, the Titans drafted Davis 5 th overall for a reason. He presents the highest ceiling of any Titans pass catcher and is typically drafted the latest among them. May take some weeks to get going, but I like his upside with Mariota at QB. Could be a plug-and-play for second half of the season. Thomas Rawls (ADP: 121) Rawls took the league by storm when he started 7 games for the injured Marshawn Lynch in He averaged more than 22 PPR PPG, ranking as RB2 in that span. In short, Rawls was a league-winner before going down with a severe ankle injury late that season. Rawls was only effective and healthy for short spurts of an injury-riddled 2016 season. He flashed his potential in two prime time games, one against Carolina ( ) and the other in the playoffs against Detroit ( ). His season was otherwise unimpressive and inefficient. However, Rawls struggles are blamed in part by injuries and a bottom-ofthe-barrel running game that couldn t create running lanes with the read-option as it normally does, due to Russell Wilson s lack of health/mobility. This season, the Seattle running game is expected to be much better now that Wilson is healthy. Rawls is in a 4-way 21 G u a r i s c o

22 competition for touches, but receiving back C.J. Prosise is already hurt, and Eddie Lacy is Eddie Lacy. I ll have to side with Rawls because he s shown the most upside, and is much more affordable in drafts than Lacy. If summer and training camp reports mean anything, the starting Seahawks RB could be a battle between Rawls and impressive rookie Chris Carson. I m not ruling anything out with this backfield, but as long as Rawls is healthy, he has the most talent and upside of almost any player you ll find in the later rounds. Cole Beasley (ADP: 150+) (PPR formats only) Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys will have to attempt a lot more passes this year because they won t be winning as much, in part due to Ezekiel Elliot s probable absence for 6 games and a much more difficult schedule for Dallas. Passing volume will be higher. Dallas does not have great options outside of Dez Bryant. There s Terrence Williams and TE Jason Witten, who is the man, but he s like, 50 years old. Dak showed chemistry with Beasley last season, and Beasley was a legitimate WR2 in games that Dez Bryant did not play last season. But if Dez is returning healthy this season, why do I like Beasley? Well for one, he s basically free in drafts despite the mainstream site s change to PPR formats, which I find odd. But more importantly, Dez Bryant has a BRUTAL, league-worst schedule of cornerback matchups. Bryant will have to matchup with Josh Norman twice, Janoris Jenkins twice, Pat Peterson, Aqib Talib/Chris Harris, Casey Hayward, Marcus Peters, and Desmond Trufant. That s 9/12 games where Bryant will face a Top-20 CB in the NFL. I m sure a healthy Bryant will get his. But with more passing volume on the table, combined with devoted, sticky coverage on Bryant, Cole Beasley will be relied on more often this season. He s a sneaky bet for 80 catches and 1,000 REYD. Alvin Kamara (ADP: 139) (PPR formats only) Many of my readers are part of WhoDat Nation, so I m not sure I need to convince them. They ve seen his exceptional play in preseason. But for those who haven t, I m going to open this by reminding you what happened in April s NFL Draft. Kamara was legitimately receiving first round buzz after a stellar combine, being mocked by Mike Mayock, Daniel Jeremiah, and others to teams like Green Bay and Kansas City late in Round 1. Kamara s running style was often compared to Jamaal Charles throughout the draft process. However, presumably because of workload concerns (he always split time at TENN), he slipped in the draft. When the Saints saw him on the board in the 3 rd round, they felt that they HAD to have him, so much so that THE SAINTS SENT NEXT YEAR S SECOND ROUND PICK AND SEVENTH ROUNDER TO TRADE UP A FEW SPOTS TO SELECT KAMARA IN THE THIRD ROUND. The team has big plans for him this season, especially now that Brandin Cooks is gone. Kamara is slated to play passing down role in this offense, which has shown to be RB2 worthy in full point PPR formats. Kamara is not as good as Sproles as a receiver, but he s a better runner, and he s a perfect complement to Adrian Peterson. I love him as a late grab in PPR formats who can hold down the fort during your RBs BYE weeks, with RB2 upside if someone like Ingram were to go down or be phased out. Also, FYI: his last name is pronounced Ka-MARE-ah. MAIR, not MAR. Shane Vereen (ADP: 150+) (PPR formats only) I really don t know what to expect with the Giants running game. Vereen missed most of last season with a torn triceps injury, so he s flying under the radar in drafts, particularly now that the industry default is a PPR format. 22 G u a r i s c o

23 The Giants will use Vereen on passing downs and on 2-minute drills when the Giants are in the Hurry Up. Eli Manning will have no choice but to throw quick passes to Vereen behind a dangerous pair of offensive tackles. I like him as a RB4/5 in PPR formats who should provide a steady 10 PPG in PPR formats. Jamaal Williams (ADP: 150+) If you don t trust Ty Montgomery s ability to stay healthy, Jamaal Williams is the pick for you. He s the favorite for backup RB duties behind Ty-Mont, and he s been getting some first team reps in practice. Obviously, a running back getting touches for the NFL s best offense carries fantasy potential. Rex Burkhead (ADP: 120) No one really knows which of the four RBs will emerge in the Patriots valuable backfield, but with Mike Gillislee and James White valued in the Top 100 by drafters, I m buying stock in Burkhead late. Burkhead is a versatile runner who can catch passes, and he s someone who Belichick vouched for in free agency. It s likely Burkhead will have a few big games this season. When to expect them? I have no idea. But he s on all three of my teams so far because of the ceiling is sky high and the cost is minimal. Coby Fleener (ADP: 150+) Fleener is not a good football player, and I wouldn t be stunned if he was cut in a few weeks (he s probably safe for financial reasons). That said, Fleener was a 7th round pick in fantasy drafts last season who is basically undrafted this year. The only difference is that he s now had a year to get acclimated with the offense after struggling with the playbook and timing last season. Fleener was quietly TE13 in fantasy PPG last season, and that was probably the worst case scenario as a starting TE for Drew Brees. Brees has always loved using TEs, dating back to Antonio Gates when he was with the Chargers, and getting top-10 TE seasons out of Jeremy Shockey, Jimmy Graham, and Ben Watson here in New Orleans. Fleener may be infuriating to watch, but he had 16 red zone targets last season (4th among TEs), and some targets are up for grabs now with Brandin Cooks gone. He has very real bust potential. I wouldn t be shocked if Josh Hill outscored him this season. Nevertheless, Fleener also has legitimate top-6 upside in this offense and the cost to found out is only a 14th round draft pick. He s worth a TE2 flier for sure. Austin Hooper (ADP: 150+) New offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian is expected to utilize his TE more than his predecessor. Hooper is a young, ascending talent who made some waves after Jacob Tamme got injured last season, including catching a touchdown in the Super Bowl. He has a good QB in Matt Ryan, Julio Jones to draw coverage away, and if history is any indication, Julio won t steal any red zone targets from Hooper. He should enter the TE streaming conversation, and I think he s a nice TE2 to stash. HANDCUFFS WORTH DRAFTING Handcuffs are typically an overrated concept, but I do believe they are a wise insurance policy in the following circumstances: 1) The backup RB must be obvious. Often times, people waste late draft picks by 23 G u a r i s c o

24 attempting to handcuff RBs that either do not have a clear-cut backup or usually teams will 2) The backup RB must be able to return top-12 value if the starter went down. The purpose of handcuffing is secure a team s backfield because it s a prime spot for fantasy production, regardless of who is getting the carries. If the backup RB would merely be in a committee with another backup, or if the team would change their offensive identity after their starter would go down, then there s no value in securing the handcuff. 3) You play in a deep league. Handcuffing your top RB is more important if you play in a deep league because in deep leagues, losing your stud RB is much more difficult to overcome. Whereas in most 10-team leagues, your RB depth is a lot better, or your handcuff may even be in free agency. Therefore, it s not recommend to hold a valuable roster spot all season long for an insurance policy when you could be using that spot on players that could have starting value to your team on a given week. In deep leagues, that final roster spot you re using to hold your handcuff is a lot less likely to be useful because the free agency pool is shallower. What players fit these criteria? Darren McFadden (ADP: 99) if you draft Ezekiel Elliot Fully in grasp of the #2 role behind Ezekiel Elliot, the old Run DMC seems like an obvious handcuff now that Elliot may miss up to six weeks for a suspension. Even if Zeke was not being suspended, I would STILL argue McFadden is a necessary handcuff, as he would be the lead back behind one of the best O- lines in football on a conservative team with a good and mobile QB. McFadden would likely be a weekly low-end RB1. The only negative is that Dallas opens with in their first three games, which would be challenging from a matchup standpoint if McFadden is forced to start because of the Zeke suspension. Nevertheless, McFadden is a quality insurance policy which allows Zeke owners to secure the output from a valuable situation as the Cowboys running back. This insurance policy doesn t come without a price, as McFadden s ADP has risen to the 9 th Round following the news of Elliot s suspension. However, the cost is justified when you consider that you probably were able to get Elliot at a discount because of the same news. Jonathan Williams (ADP: 200+) if you draft LeSean McCoy If you have ever drafted LeSean McCoy (and you did if you followed this guide last season) knows that he can be a heart ache to own because while he s amazing when healthy, he s also one of the most fragile RBs in the NFL. Just last season, McCoy missed week 8, and left weeks 7, 11, and 17 early due to variety of injuries. The upside of McCoy is clear this year: imagine if he were to miraculously stay healthy for 16 games AND not have to worry about Mike Gillislee (9 TDs last season) siphoning goal line scores! The Bills were the league s heaviest run offense last season, as well as the most efficient. It s their bread and butter, which makes it clear that if (when) McCoy goes down, Williams would boast top-12 upside. While he s not nearly as talented as McCoy, he would at minimum offer solid RB2 insurance on a run-first team with a good O- line and mobile QB who helps open up running lanes. McCoy is one of the biggest injury risks 24 G u a r i s c o