2018 MAC West Division (in alpha order) All MAC teams are lower tier, with no team sheets or rush data

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1 2018 MAC West Division (in alpha order) All MAC teams are lower tier, with no team sheets or rush data BALL STATE Former Ball St. QB Mike Neu took over a program that was not in bad shape despite the recent record. I did see some statistical concerns when writing the 16 preview so their 4-8 record was expected. I expected 4-8 again last year. What I got was 2-10 and statistical regression in ALL areas. 16 starters return. Improvement is mandatory. AREAS TO WATCH: Ball St. was 2-1 before QB Riley Neal was out for the year. He returns, giving them hope. RB is deep and so the 3.8 yards-per-carry figure (uncorrected for sacks, as all MAC teams are) has to go way up. Every WR returns. The OL is young. Five of their top tacklers return. Unfortunately, the DL is all new and the secondary is very young. Ball St. is switching to a 3-4 defensive scheme. One watch area is the sack ratio. The Cardinals allowed 29 sacks in eight MAC games. The defense lost their top sacker (11.5 out of 24 sacks). Special team play was awful (9-16 kicking, four punts blocked). They are -19 in turnover margin the past two years. A flat (zero) ratio would help, but in MAC play the point ratio was so this team has worlds of ground to make up. 18 PREVIEW: Ball State trades games vs. UAB and Illinois for Notre Dame and Indiana. That s not good. They open hosting 8-4 Central Conn St. Lose that and Mike Neu is in trouble. WKU has coaching issues. Projected down in 18, this has to be a Ball St. home win. Kent St. is young and not a good team. 3-2 is expected as anything less has me worried. Ball St. has lost nine in a row vs. NIU (home game). Central Michigan (road game) had massive personnel losses. The goal is a split of these games before hosting Eastern Michigan. Eastern Michigan has the coaching edge but has shown vulnerability in close game situations. Games are hosting Western Michigan (four straight awful performances) and at Miami Ohio. BOTTOM LINE: 4-4 is the ceiling before expected losses at Ohio and Toledo. Home attendance averaged under 6,000 in their final three games last year. That tells me fans don t care about this program. 4-8 might be the ceiling in 18. HANDICAPPING TIP: I m looking to fade this team at home again in November. That has worked nearly perfectly the past few seasons. CENTRAL MICHIGAN Central Michigan (CM) has been to four straight bowl games (0-4 once there). It took a strong 2 nd half of the season to get bowl eligible three times, including five in a row to close out 17, three being outright upsets. Just nine starters return this year. A 5 th bowl bid will be tougher to achieve. AREAS TO WATCH: The offense is noticeably younger this year. I think they ll actually see improved QB play and all the RB s return. The WR unit was shredded by graduation. The OL goes from 114 career starts down to just 36. Readers, watch QB play closely as without improvement the unit will slump. The front seven defensively looks solid except for losing 14 sack artist Joe Ostman. The pass D% was about 54.5% last year. That figures to rise with a pair of untested DB s slated to start. Repeating their 4-0 record in close games won t be easy. I applaud the change in coaching for the special team unit. 18 PREVIEW: CM was 2-2 out of conference last year. 2-2 is possible again if they win their 2 nd straight vs. Kansas (KU much more experienced but dreadful on the road) and defeat 4-6 Maine. At 2-3, games 6-8 are all at home, which is awfully rare for a MAC team. They host Buffalo (Bulls improved, but 1-7 in the recent series), Ball St. (3-0 last three) and Western Michigan (Broncos win often here but will be playing their fourth road game in a five week stretch). Anything less than 2-1 with this depth would be underachieving. The goal is 2-1 in games They play at Akron, at Eastern Michigan and host Bowling Green. CM s record is better than all three of these teams, two of which they haven t played in a few years. My prechecks will be OL production and the secondary. BOTTOM LINE: A very shaky 6-6? The staff is decent and I believe QB play won t drop as some expect. Clearly we all need to check September progress considering the starters lost. The MAC schedule is more than fair. HANDICAPPING TIP: I think they win vs. Maine, but given the lack of depth I look to take the points if they are reasonable. If I do not see some statistical improvement offensively I ll look to back Western Michigan on 10/20.

2 EASTERN MICHIGAN Chris Creighton did the almost impossible in 16 by finishing 7-6, leading the Eagles to their 1 st bowl game in 29 years. 16 starters returned a year ago but six straight close losses led to a 5-7 campaign. The program hit a new level but can the Eagles become regular bowl participants? AREAS TO WATCH: Home spirit was getting better, but leveled off in 17. Attendance was at 16% capacity in 15 with an average of 5,000 fans per game. The finale drew under 3,000. In 16 the average attendance was 18,000 and the finale drew over 19,000! They averaged under 15,000 last year. Their long time QB graduated but the replacement (Tyler Wiegers, Iowa) looks decent. The run game regressed last year. With four returning OL starters this deep group MUST improve. Like Central Michigan, they are thin at WR. Six of their top eight tacklers return. Sacks hit a new modern day high at 28. The top two combined for 17 sacks and they return. The overall defense is much more competitive. In all, 21 of the 22 projected starters are seniors or juniors! Kicking is solid. So what happened in 17? Ohio beat them in overtime. An end zone interception sealed a four point loss at Kentucky. Two 4 th quarter interceptions led to a five point loss at powerful Toledo. They went for the win late vs. Army but the two point try failed. They lost in overtime to Western Michigan and again in overtime to NIU. Has anyone had six straight losses in this fashion? 18 PREVIEW: Eastern Michigan (EM) hosts 9-3 Monmouth to start then plays three in a row on the road. The only winnable game in that road stretch is at Buffalo (no recent history). NIU comes to Ypilanti and though tough, they may need to win that one as playing at Western Michigan and hosting Toledo won t be easy. Despite the talent and the deceiving record of 17 I think 2-5 is about right. Games 8-12 are winnable. They go to 2-10 Ball St, host Army, Central Michigan and Akron and with rest, close at 2-10 Kent St. BOTTOM LINE: I m concerned about Monmouth but 2-5 can lead to 6-6 given the late schedule. This is a good enough team and good enough staff to make this happen. Playing smarter in the 4 th quarter would help. Can the run game get back to pre- 17 levels? HANDICAPPING TIP: The Eagles are 12-1 vs. the spread in their final road game. They thrive in the role of an ignored late road dog. My only question is this: Will they be an ignored road dog if they improve as expected? They may not even be a dog at Kent St. I m also interested in what totals will be set in their games. I lean toward taking the unders at various times. NORTHERN ILLINOIS From NIU had a regular season record of 52-8 and an overall record of QB injuries led to regression and 8-6 in 15. NIU did not meet expectations in 16, falling to 5-7. They righted the ship last year by going 8-4. Was the great run over or was 15 just a blip on their radar screen. Are they back? AREAS TO WATCH: NIU found a QB. Marcus Childers was great as a freshman with old-style NIU runpass balance. The run game was down last year but the OL is deep and should open more holes. The DL is elite by MAC standards. They allowed a bit over 3.0 yards-per-carry in 17 and all four starters return. This includes NCAA sack leader Sutton Smith, who had 15.5 of their 43 sacks. All three LB s depart and two of four DB s are gone. There could be pass D regression. My biggest concern is losing their defensive coordinator. The replacement however has developed a decent resume. The new kicker (Cincy grad transfer) is an upgrade. NIU had a chance to win their Division last year but lost at Central Michigan in their final game. They ve also lost all four bowl games under the current staff. Is that a red flag related to big game preparation? 18 PREVIEW: NIU s schedule is elevated both inside and outside of the MAC. They play at Iowa, host Utah, at FSU and at BYU out of conference. They also add Ohio U from the Eastern Division. There are reasons to believe this team is better than last year (QB, OL, front four) but if they look about the same the record could suffer. The FSU game starts a three game road stand. NIU is better than Eastern Michigan and Ball St. but the schedule-maker did them no favors. Ohio U is a solid road team so that game could be interesting. The game at BYU is followed immediately by a Thursday game at Akron. Rod Carey s team has been exceptional in road games, going 13-6 vs. the spread as a road favorite and 10-3 vs. the spread as a road dog. This schedule would test any other program. The final three games are just as challenging. They host Toledo, host Miami Ohio and travel to a rested Western Michigan team. BOTTOM LINE: 7-5? This schedule is challenging and although I like the talent, I m slightly worried about the secondary and the coordinator change. NIU is always a tough team to beat but I expect many close games in 18. HANDICAPPING TIP: NIU is also 11-3 vs. the spread as a home dog. These spread records are impressive but I m inclined to lean vs. at times depending on what I see on the field early this season.

3 TOLEDO From 17: The last time Toledo made the MAC title game was 04. Consistently winning about nine games per season, it s time to get back to Detroit. Mission accomplished. They bombed badly in the bowl game but 11-3 was a job well done. AREAS TO WATCH: QB play. Toledo was spoiled by Logan Woodside. This area is of deep concern. RB play. Toledo tends to reload at RB but once again a solid RB (1, TD s) must be replaced. WR talent is strong but the OL looks a bit weaker. Under head coach Jason Candle the run D has been below par but the pass D has been really good. Four of the top five tacklers depart as well as three of their four DL. We could see a bit of a drop in production but not too much. The kicker is really good. 18 PREVIEW: I d usually forecast a shaky start for the offense with the info listed above but Toledo gets the coveted revenge/bye/underdog situation hosting Miami Fla. as long as they beat 0-11 VMI. Will there be an emotional toll the next week hosting nondescript Nevada? Playing at a rested Fresno team could make the record 2-2 unless they pull the outright upset vs. Miami Fla. Toledo has owned Eastern Michigan (17-1). Last year s game was close. This year s game could be just as close. My pre-checks will include QB performance for both teams. Toledo is 3-1 the last four at Western Michigan. This could be an interesting and very important game. Toledo travels to NIU this year. What has the defense been like so far this season? If games are close, its edge Toledo in the kicking game. Toledo has an eight game win streak vs. Central Michigan. BOTTOM LINE: This is a good team but they are missing a solid QB, strong RB and a number of top tacklers from the 17 team, making them somewhat vulnerable. 9-3 is still in play, as is the MAC West title. 8-4 will be the record if it takes time to replace the talent that was lost. HANDICAPPING TIP: None. All right, I do like the revenge/bye situation hosting Miami Fla. but I wish it came later in the season with Toledo breaking in a new QB. After that I m more into fade mode during the month of September. WESTERN MICHIGAN Western Michigan (WM) slumped to 6-6 in Tim Lester s initial year as coach of his alma mater. Yes, they missed the energetic P.J. Fleck but despite winning my large future play (under nine wins) I thought 8-4 was achievable. Some people claim injuries were a factor but the stat sheet shows little drop off. Some point to close losses at Akron and NIU but I counter with a lucky overtime win at Buffalo and another overtime win at Eastern Michigan. Year #2 will give us more input. AREAS TO WATCH: WM has a solid QB in place but they lose their lead RB. I like some of the replacements and despite no senior OL starters I see the group as equal to a year ago. I think the offense will be solid once again. Five of the top seven tacklers are gone including all three starting LB s. I think the run D will regress and so might the pass D%. The NFL took a good DB, who doubled as an elite return specialist. One area stayed the same: Recruiting remained #1 in the MAC. 18 PREVIEW: The opener vs. Syracuse is highly interesting. I expect a shootout. WM plays four road games in a five game stretch. Amazingly, they will be favored in at least three of these four road games. I m expecting a 2-2 split. If they split games vs. Syracuse and home to Eastern Michigan then the record will be 4-4. Games 9-10 are home to Toledo and Oho. I expect no more than a split as both teams are solid road warriors. I expect a win at Ball St. before the Broncos close hosting NIU. BOTTOM LINE: The new staff disappointed last year but thanks to continued excellence on the recruiting trail team talent and depth cannot be used as an excuse. Toledo lost some key players while NIU has flattened out a bit. My worry here is defensive performance. Readers need to watch the early defensive stat sheet for clues. I expect many close games this season. I expect at least six wins, but worry that 6-6 will be the end result. Last year they went 6-6 and were snubbed by the bowls. That should provide motivation this year. HANDICAPPING TIP: None. For a limited time you can get ALL of the picks this football season (NFL thru Super Bowl and College Football thru the National Championship) from Frank and Cris for only $895 (discounted from $1095) using coupon code VS985

4 2018 MAC East Division (in alpha order) AKRON Akron snuck into the MAC title game thanks to three close wins. Toledo took care of business in the title game and FAU destroyed the Zips 50-3 on their home turf in the bowl game. After a 1-11 initial campaign, Terry Bowden s Zips are the past five seasons and only vs. FBS teams. Welcome to mediocrity. AREAS TO WATCH: The offense wasn t great a year ago but on paper they look worse coming into 18. They like their new QB but the old one was far more experienced and kept turnovers low. Once again the run game was poor. Is there any chance one of three newcomers can deliver? Readers should monitor this area closely. Most of last year s WR s are gone. Until the last two games the point defense was solid. Upon further review, the run D was high all season long and the pass D was clearly over 60%, finishing at 63%. 11 of their top 12 tacklers return so this unit will be solid. Incredibly, ten seniors are slated to start on defense. The same kicker who was in 16 regressed to just 3-7 last year. He was replaced with a kicker who was 3-6. They both return, hoping for improvement. 18 PREVIEW: Unless they spring an upset at Northwestern or Iowa St. the Zips will enter MAC play at 1-3. A win at Iowa St. would signal to me that the Zips have improved while also triggering a solid situation hosting Miami Ohio. Figuring 1-3, I see a split in games hosting Miami and at Buffalo, with neither game a sure thing. Even at 2-4, games 7-11 present win opportunities as long as the offense can participate in a positive manner. Kent St. is a poor team. Central Michigan is rebuilding but they do have a solid staff. NIU is better but has to come to Akron and will do so on a short week after a road game at BYU. I ll precheck how Eastern Michigan is faring at home and how Akron is faring on the road prior to their matchup. Akron will be expected to win hosting Bowling Green. They close at revenge-minded Ohio U (close games last four years). BOTTOM LINE: Like last year, I ll go for 6-6. They were hard pressed to reach 6-6 last year. If they don t improve, 6-6 is the absolute ceiling. HANDICAPPING TIP: Akron is 6-12 against the spread as a home favorite. BOWLING GREEN New Coach Mike Jinks inherited a team which was from He s gone 6-18 thus far. The leash is short. AREAS TO WATCH: All eyes will be on 6 3 sophomore QB Jarret Doege. He started the final four games and Bowling Green (BG) put up 130 points! For the season he was close to 64% with a stout 12-3 ratio. The rest of the offense seems unchanged. Not much good has happened defensively. The run D was awful last year. Experienced defensive coordinator Carl Pelini will try to make things better. Modest depth returns but my watch will be two JUCO LB s, both penciled in as 18 starters. Kicking (18-22, from inside 50) and punting (exceptional 42.3 net) were great last year. Unfortunately both players depart. 18 PREVIEW: Its 8/11 on the calendar and a random check of recent news has just alerted me that Maryland s head coach is now on administrative leave pending an investigation. BG hosts them on 9/8 and suddenly they will be facing a team in turmoil. With home games continuing vs. 4-7 Eastern Kentucky (BG lost to South Dakota last year and beat North Dakota by one the previous year) and 5-7 Miami (BG has won four of last five) maybe Mike Jinks can actually get this team moving in the right direction. Three of the next four games are too difficult but they host Western Michigan in a winnable game. Western Michigan dominates MAC recruiting but their now 2 nd year coach underachieved in 17. Another win shot occurs 10/30 hosting the MAC s weakest team, Kent St. A modest goal would be 4-5 heading to their bye week. If so, they will need to win two of three playing at Central Michigan, at Akron and home to Buffalo. BOTTOM LINE: 4-8. Exceeding that figure is possible with a talented QB if Pelini makes an immediate difference with his defensive unit and if the kicking game somehow gets close to last year s great numbers. Watch the point D and the kicking game carefully. I m not yet ready to endorse this team as being improved. HANDICAPPING TIP: BG last covered a game as a home favorite in early November, The team is 1-5 vs. the spread as a home dog under the current staff. I m not anxious to back this team at home, just like I stated a year ago.

5 BUFFALO Lance Leipold was at Wisconsin-Whitewater. I expected early growing pains as this school has a severe recruiting issue. That issue will remain until a winning culture is established. In 17 I moved my prediction up to 5-7 or 6-6. Buffalo did go 6-6 but failed to receive a bowl invite. Has Leipold laid the foundation for future sustained success? AREAS TO WATCH: The offense has plenty of returning skilled players and the OL looks acceptable. The defense returns Khalil Hodge who was by far their leading tackler (154). Seven seniors are poised to start on this side of the ball. We finally saw improvement in most statistical areas on defense. Defensive sacks are an issue. The kicking game is erratic but should improve. Buffalo looks a little bit better on paper. 18 PREVIEW: Buffalo will open 2-1 if they win hosting Eastern Michigan. I see at least 2-2 in games 4-7. They play at Rutgers, host Army with revenge (Cadets have a new QB), play at Central Michigan (nine returning starters) and host Akron (home team has won seven straight). Miami Ohio is much like Buffalo. Both show promise but must get over the 6-6 hump. This home game looks like a tossup. They should win hosting Kent St. Buffalo closed out 17 with three straight wins. Two of those wins were vs. Ohio U and Bowling Green. They have to play both schools at their site to close this season. BOTTOM LINE: Buffalo was very unlucky last year. Perhaps the Bulls are still learning how to win close games. They led Army 17-7 but fumbles and a late score gave the Cadets the win. They were extremely unlucky in a seven overtime loss vs. Western Michigan and then almost beat NIU, losing They missed a late field goal to lose by one at Akron. I d like to see this team kick open the bowl eligibility door. That could happen but only if they learn how to win the close games and improve field goal accuracy. A split of Miami Ohio and at Bowling Green could get them to 6-6. I ll call this a 6-6 or 7-5 season, trusting in the offensive skilled position players and trusting in this staff more than I do some other MAC coaching staffs. HANDICAPPING TIP: Buffalo was a solid vs. the spread a year ago. I want to back them again this year as I think they are improving, yet still riding a bit under the radar. One spot could be hosting Army on 9/29. Another spot could be hosting Akron on 10/13. KENT STATE Paul Haynes was a rare three time participant on my bottom five coaches list. He finally lost his job after going 14-45, and vs. FCS level teams. 31 year old Sean Lewis takes over. This is the definition of a rebuilding job. AREAS TO WATCH: No seniors will start on offense but there are two key players to watch. QB Woody Barnett once was at Auburn and is a dual threat. JC transfer RB Jo-EL Shaw tries to ignite the run game. Last year s # s showed a 10.5 point O vs. FCS opponents, under 49% completions and 46 sacks allowed. There s modest at best defensive depth and Kent St. had issues stopping the run. The new defensive coordinator likes to bring pressure. That could lead to giving up big plays. Their stadium holds over 25,000. attendance in their final two home games was at 25% capacity. No wonder they lost to a terrible Bowling Green team! 18 PREVIEW: The Howard Bison football team was 7-4 last year. They come at Kent. Ball St. was 2-10 last year but returns 16 starters. That is a road game. Hosting Akron has produced close games. Bowling Green beat Kent St. last year but won just one other game. The rematch is at Bowling Green. Maybe they can hang with road team Eastern Michigan if the Eagles have nothing to play for. The other seven games look like losses. BOTTOM LINE: Kent is 5-23 at home in FBS games the past five seasons. They change schemes, have a super young head coach and lack home spirit. Lose to Howard and 0-12 is on the table despite my dislike of the previous staff. 2-10, plus playing better on offense would be my modest goal for this team. HANDICAPPING TIP: Fading them at times early in the season makes sense. Fading them late in home games makes sense. For a limited time you can get ALL of the picks this football season (NFL thru Super Bowl and College Football thru the National Championship) from Frank and Cris for only $895 (discounted from $1095) using coupon code VS985

6 MIAMI OHIO Miami Ohio (Miami) returned 16 starters last year and most analysts, including myself had them pegged to challenge Ohio U in the Division. The Redhawks disappointed going 4-4, and 5-7 overall. Another 16 starters return this year. No excuses! AREAS TO WATCH: QB Gus Ragland is good but hasn t been able to stay healthy. I expect run game improvement and would be disappointed in the program if that failed to occur. The OL looks like the best they ve had in years. The front seven has plenty of experience. Total yards allowed have been fine but the run D was high a year ago. The secondary excelled in 17. Miami had 18 defensive sacks in 17. Readers should monitor this area as I expect improvement. 18 PREVIEW: The MAC schedule is a bit tougher. Miami is the last two years and continued its trend of very slow starts. With this senior dominated starting lineup that has to change and will be very important to monitor. They open with revenge vs. a Marshall team that will be without their long time QB. Revenge exists again hosting a Cincinnati team with a suspect head coach. Revenge exists again at Bowling Green, a team with average depth who went winless at home in 17. No excuses? Miami has lost its last five vs. decent Western Michigan but they haven t played the past two seasons. I d like to see this offense step things up at home vs. a somewhat depleted Bronco defense. The three October road games are at rested Akron, at Army and at Buffalo. If (a big if) this team is improved the goal is 2-1. Games are not easy. Ohio has a five game win streak vs. the Redhawks but the game is in Miami. The game at NIU looks tough. Miami closes hosting Ball St. BOTTOM LINE: 5-7 last year could have been better. They gave up two kick returns and a 72 yard pick-six in a close loss vs. Marshall. They threw an ill-advised pick-six leading Cincy with just over a minute to go. They lost a close one as a nine point road favorite to Kent St. In all they lost outright five times when favored! This is a now or never year for the staff! Nothing less than a Divisional title is acceptable in my eyes. The back half of the schedule is tricky so the Redhawks need to win early to make this a special season. I expect at least 7-5 HANDICAPPING TIP: Taking a chance, I m on them in games 1-2 vs. Marshall and vs. Cincy in the Bengal s home stadium. I ve got leans and game by game notes after that, but decisions will be made after I see if this veteran team has really turned the corner in September. Miami has been a solid team as a road dog, so keep that in mind (especially with such a veteran team). OHIO Ohio has been to the MAC title game four times. They have yet to emerge victorious. That was the goal a year ago but the Bobcats lost as a double digit favorite to Akron and missed the title game. They rebounded to whip UAB in their bowl game, but fell short of expectations. As always they will be the team to beat again in 18. AREAS TO WATCH: No staff in the NCAA has as much stability as this one, which is now together for a 14 th straight season. The offense returns seven starters but will be hard-pressed to average another 39 points per game. Still, the OL is good and will be blocking for an experienced backfield. All concerns are on defense, especially in the front seven. The run D has been on a two year mission of greatness but the DL is all new and only one LB returns. I expect clear regression. The secondary is solid but might find it tough to replicate their 56.5% defense with all the front seven losses. Ohio continues to field a strong special team unit. 18 PREVIEW: Ohio opens at home vs. 7-4 Howard. I ll post check all defensive numbers. The goal is to split road games at somewhat vulnerable Virginia and Cincy. UMass has hardly been a consistent team but the game could be close. Ohio has a shot at being 4-1 heading to NIU in a good matchup. With two easy games up next the Bobcats could be as high as 7-1 prior to weekday road games at Western Michigan and Miami Ohio. Ohio has dominated the Miami series but it seems like the experienced Redhawks have equal talent this year as well as more experienced starters. Ohio has played only weekday games in November for the past nine seasons. They have not lost more than two home games in a season since 08. They close hosting Buffalo and Akron. BOTTOM LINE: Coaching stability and a solid offense gives Ohio a shot at yet another 8+ win season but the road schedule is tricky and the front seven on defense will regress. 9-3 is in play but not a guarantee. Beat Miami and they should represent the MAC East for a 2 nd time in the last three seasons. There is no other goal. HANDICAPPING TIP: Ohio U continues to play well in mid-week games in the role of a favorite. I listed that a year ago and they were 2-1 vs. the spread in games listed. In September I m concerned about the game at Virginia but a win in that spot as a dog would give me reason to back them the following week at Cincy. Defensive regression could trigger some fade action later on, but let s wait to see what develops.