Creating a Data-Based 2016 NBA Mock Draft. Lucas Mentch & Ben Risk SAMSI Interdisciplinary UG Workshop May 23, 2016

Transcription

1 Creating a Data-Based 2016 NBA Mock Draft Lucas Mentch & Ben Risk SAMSI Interdisciplinary UG Workshop May 23, 2016

2 Overview NBA Consists of 30 teams; 15 in the Western Conference, 15 in the Eastern Conference Each year, the top 8 teams from each conference make the playoffs The bottom 7 from each conference (14 total) get the first 14 picks in next years draft However, order among those 14 is determined at random

3 Draft Order Do determine draft order among the bottom 14 teams, 14 ping pong balls numbered 1-14 are placed into lottery machine 4 balls selected one at a time to determine a four digit combination, but without regard to order 14 2 = 1001 total combinations 1 thrown out; each team assigned a number of remaining combinations based on record

4 Draft Order Team matching the first combination drawn gets the first pick Same for the second and third picks After first three picks are established, remaining order goes in order of regular season record Team with worst record can pick no less than 4th Team with 2nd worst record can pick no less than 5th Team with 3rd worst record can pick no less than 6th

5 Draft Order Source:

6 2016 Draft Order This year the draft lottery was held on May 17, 2016 For the first time, the order followed the record exactly (teams with worst record picked first; those with best picked last) Nobody thought much of this but it raises a lot of potentially interesting questions:

7 Potential Questions Just how likely/unlikely is it for the draft order to go in exact (reverse) order of record? How likely would it be if all (14) teams were given an equal shot? All 30 teams? Gets into questions about the cost/benefit of tanking? How much does a team stand to lose by tanking vs gain by getting a high pick?

8 Primary Question(s) Assuming each player p has some value v(p), can we assign a proper order in which players should be drafted? (i.e. create a mock draft of sorts) Does player value stay constant across teams or are there certain rosters that benefit significantly more from drafting one position or another? Really a thresholding question: certainly if a prospect s estimated value is extremely high, it is probably worth drafting that player anyway but how high does it need to be?

9 Considerations How should we estimate v(p)? Popular measures usually involve a plus/minus (+/-, pm) value (point differential while on floor) Variations on this such as ESPN s Real Plus Minus Tries to take into account (and remove) team effects Can also come up with other measures based on statistics relative to other players/positions

10 Considerations What factors (most) influence v(p)? Previous experience: college statistics & accomplishments; international competition Physical Measurables: height, weight, speed Advanced Metrics : catch-and-shoot, pull-up shooting, post-touches Potential: age, development rate

11 Data Sources stats.nba.com / espn.com: basic box-score style statistics and historical data, some advanced statistics basketball-reference.com: more detailed statistics and more easily accessible historical data draftexpress.com: more in depth statistics, advanced statistics, physical measurables

12 Wrap-up Many potentially different questions that can be investigated: Rarity of correct draft order and cost/benefit analysis of tanking Determining whether current roster / team impacts draft value and player development Determining role of previous production, measurables, potential on true value vs perceived value Use this to create 2016 mock draft Compare with current and/or historical mock drafts