Chaim Garfinkel, Dennis Hartmann University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Science. WACCM working group June 19, 2008
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1 The Different ENSO Teleconnections and Their Effects on the Stratospheric Polar Vortex Chaim Garfinkel, Dennis Hartmann University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Science WACCM working group June 19, 2008
2 Climatological December,
3 Preview (1)The ENSO modulation of the polar vortex can be separated from the QBO modulation of the polar vortex. (2) ENSO typically induces a PNA like pattern. The PNA is the proximate cause through which ENSO modulates the vortex. (3)When WENSO does not generate a PNA, the vortex is not modulated. (4)The PNA weakens the vortex by modifying the wave 1 height field in the troposphere. (5) The WACCM model realistically simulates the effect of ENSO on the vortex.
4 The Influence of ENSO/QBO Individually ENSO: QBO: EQBO causes more WENSO causes more disturbed polar vortex, disturbed polar vortex, warmer polar region warmer polar region WQBO causes less CENSO causes less disturbed polar vortex, disturbed polar vortex, colder polar region colder polar region Does the ENSO effect actually exist? How do you distinguish between the effects of ENSO and QBO?
5 1. Separation of QBO and ENSO 2. Physical Mechanism for ENSO 3. Saturation or Masking
6 Possible Solutions: (1)Take the four categories CENSO/WQBO, WENSO/WQBO, WENSO/EQBO, CENSO/EQBO, and compare them to each other. CENSO/WQBO WENSO/WQBO CENSO/EQBO WENSO/EQBO (2) Take QBO(ENSO) when ENSO(QBO) is in its neutral phase. (see Garfinkel, C. I., and D. L. Hartmann, 2007)
7 The Data Used The ERA 40 dataset (Sep Aug. 2002) plus ECMWF TOGA Data (Sep Feb. 2007). Monthly average of 12UTC Ф, minus current month's climatology. Nino3 index for ENSO, and 50mb QBO from ECMWF data.
8 QBO Signal ENSO Signal CENSO/WQBO WENSO/WQBO CENSO/EQBO WENSO/EQBO (WENSO CENSO)/EQBO (EQBO WQBO)/WENSO (WENSO CENSO)/WQBO (EQBO WQBO)/CENSO both black curves significant at 95% confidence level, even removing volcanic months and pre satellite data, in the stratosphere; one month after Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb event.
9 Why is the response to ENSO weaker under EQBO than WQBO? (Why is the response to QBO weaker under WENSO than CENSO?) 2 Possible Hypotheses: The Polar Vortex can only be weakened so much (the warming of the pole saturates ) There is fundamentally something different about the wave sources in WENSO/EQBO (or CENSO/EQBO) such that the WENSO/EQBO CENSO/EQBO polar vortex anomaly is small. To answer this, we need to understand how ENSO modulates the vortex. Hypothesis: PNA
10 1. Separation of QBO and ENSO 2. Physical Mechanism for ENSO I. The PNA Observations II. The PNA Model Results 3. Saturation or Masking
11 The PNA effect on the vortex is greater than the ENSO effect on the vortex CPC indices for PNA, WP, and TNH are used based on rotated EOF's of 500mb flow. EQBO WQBO (WPNA CPNA)/noENSO (WENSO CENSO)/noPNA WPNA > phase of PNA typically associated with WENSO CPNA > phase of PNA typically associated with CENSO
12 Wave 1 EP Flux during ENSO(PNA) under neutral PNA(ENSO) ENSO, in the absence of PNA, does not have a strong effect on the vortex /nopna /noenso
13 1. Separation of QBO and ENSO 2. Physical Mechanism for ENSO I. The PNA Observations II. The PNA Model Results 3. Saturation or Masking
14 The Data Used 3 ensembles of WACCM used in CCMVal (Garcia, et al. 2007) Period used, giving 132 years of model data WACCM lacks a QBO
15 Fidelity of WACCM's Polar Vortex Polar Vortex Temperature from 70N and poleward is a few degrees warmer than ECMWF, but ECMWF has a slight cold bias (Randel, 2004) Variability of the polar vortex is less in WACCM than in ECMWF
16 PNA index for WACCM Random extratropical variability differs in model from observed atmosphere 1st PC of 500mb height from 22N poleward over the Central and East Pacific.
17 PNA's effect on vortex in WACCM WPNA/noENSO, CPNA/noENSO, CENSO/noPNA and WENSO/noPNA composites created (Nino4 region) PNA/noENSO modulation significant at 95% level throughout stratosphere (WENSO CENSO)/noPNA (WPNA CPNA)/noENSO,
18 PNA's effect on vortex in WACCM all wave EP flux Consistent with Observations /nopna /noenso
19 1. Separation of QBO and ENSO 2. Physical Mechanism for ENSO 3. Saturation or Masking I. ENSO/WQBO vs. ENSO/EQBO
20 Why is the response to ENSO weaker under EQBO than WQBO? CENSO/WQBO WENSO/WQBO CENSO/EQBO WENSO/EQBO
21 When is ENSO correlated with the PNA? Barnston, Livezey, and Halpert [1991]
22 Height at 500hPa PNA like pattern appears in WENSO/WQBO (and WENSO/noQBO) but not in WENSO/EQBO
23 Cause of Little Vortex Modulation by ENSO under EQBO (WENSO CENSO)/EQBO Because the WENSO/EQBO composite does not have a PNA and enhanced tropospheric wave 1, the weakening of the vortex in WENSO relative to CENSO is small (WENSO CENSO)/WQBO
24 Conclusions (1) When ENSO induces a PNA like pattern, it modifies the wavenumber 1 field in the troposphere. This modification in wave 1 propagates to the stratosphere, modulating the vortex. (2)An exception to WENSO causing enhanced wave 1 is the WENSO/EQBO case. WENSO does not generate a WPNA under EQBO in the observational record. (3)WACCM realistically simulates the stratospheric response to ENSO and the PNA. The inclusion of a QBO would enhance WACCM's utility. Garfinkel, C. I., and D. L. Hartmann (under review), The Different ENSO Teleconnections and Their Effects on the Stratospheric Polar Vortex, J. Geophys. Res.
25 THANKS FOR LISTENING!!
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