El Niño: what it is and what to expect in San Francisco Bay
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1 El Niño: what it is and what to expect in San Francisco Bay A. O Neill U.S. Geological Survey Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center Santa Cruz
2 Outline Tropical Ocean and El Niño Impacts beyond the tropics Atmospheric circulation and storms: temperature, wind, waves, precipitation El Niño conditions past and present Resources for weather and storm-related hazard projections
3
4 Neutral conditions Trade winds East cool (upwelling) West - warm water, precipitation MetEd/UCAR
5 El Niño conditions Decreased winds Warmer water in east Shift in precipitation Shift in pattern of available heat Shift in atmospheric circulation
6 Neutral El Niño
7 Monitoring El Niño El Niño identified and monitored by changes in: Sea Surface Temperature - (SST Anomaly) Temperature at depth Atmospheric surface pressure Wind Precipitation patterns across Equator (OLR) ONI
8 Oceanic Niño Index El Niño: ONI greater than +0.5 C La Niña: El Niño Neutral La Niña ONI less than -0.5 C
9 climate.gov El Niño and La Niña
10 Impacts on Atmospheric Circulation El Niño: Extended Pacific Jet Stream
11 Impacts on Atmospheric Circulation La Niña: Variable Pacific Jet Stream
12
13 El Niño impacts CPC Chance of above/below normal temperature Chance of above/below normal precipitation: March Dave Gatley, FEMA climate.gov, CPC
14 Wave energy Wave direction Barnard, P., Kaminsky, G., Hansen, J., Allan, J., Ruggiero, P., and Hoover, D. The Impact of the El Niño on West Coast Beaches, AGU 2010 Mean Monthly sea-level anomalies at Los Angeles* Increased water levels / / / / AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR * Data for SEP from Santa Monica; tide guage data ( date 3 Mar 2016.
15 The Impact of the El Niño on West Coast Beaches. Patrick L. Barnard, George M. Kaminsky, Jeff E. Hansen, Jonathan C. Allan, Peter Ruggiero and Daniel Hoover, AGU 2010 El Niño impacts Accretion Erosion El Niño
16 El Niño - impacts Aptos, Mercury News File Photo) San Lorenzo River, Frans Lanting/Corbis California Governor's Office of Emergency Services/Robert A. Eplett. Cowell s Beach, USGS
17 El Niño - impacts SeaCliff Bluffs, USGS Great Highway guardrail, Jeff Hansen
18 El Niño - impacts A series of photos showing coastal erosion at San Francisco's Ocean Beach, PATRICK BARNARD, USGS
19 Santa Cruz Boardwalk and Twin Lakes beaches: A. O Neill, USGS; A. Foxgrover, USGS El Niño - impacts
20 Feb 4 th 2016: Mavericks. srfer.co/gv0pz4
21 OLAF PATRICIA Philip Klotzbach, CSU NOAA
22 El Niño - impacts MODIS ocean color and phytoplankton. Source:
23 El Niño - impacts Pacific Marine Mammal Center Unusual Mortality Events for Guadalupe Fur Seals; tough year for California Sea Lions - Pat Wilson, The Marine Mammal Center Unusual number of pup stranded or starving Increase at rescue center
24 All El Niño Composite: precipitation Impacts All La Niña Composite: precipitation
25 El Niño - variability MetEd/UCAR NASA Earth Observatory NASA Earth Observatory
26 Image courtesy NWS Sacramento El Niño - variability
27 Resources
28 Resources
29 Open coast Global Global winds and wave models of future climate scenarios Resources Community-level impacts from storm hazards local-scale projections: Regional Tides, regional water levels, circulation, and waves Delft FLOW model explicit, deterministic modeling system to capture relevant physics related to coastal storms Local High resolution hydrodynamics and waves Coastal Storm Modeling System SWAN wave model TWL applied onto hi-res DEM Other components: Fluvial discharges (marsh accretion) (vertical land motion)
30 Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) shown in Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) 100-year storm, 0 cm SLR Resources
31
32
33 Main site:
34 Also
35 North section north Sierras Other plots and data related to rain and snow:
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