Drought and the Climate of the Ogallala Aquifer

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1 Drought and the Climate of the Ogallala Aquifer Nolan J. Doesken Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Presented at Ogallala Symposium, Wray, Colorado February 20, 2006 Prepared by Odie Bliss

2 Drought Monitor Map

3 But what does this mean? We need some perspective.

4 Map of average July max temperatures (we've used this one before)

5 Class A Pan Evaporation (May-Oct) From NOAA Tech Report NWS 33

6 Burlington Temperatures Burlington, CO, Average Temperatures Mean Max. Temperature (F) Mean Temperature (F) Mean Min. Temperature (F) Temperature (deg F) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

7 Idalia CoAgMet Reference Evaportranspiration (ET) Idalia Average Reference Evapotranspiration (ET) Values ET (In) Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Month

8 Reference Evapotranspiration (ET) 0.6 Kirk, Colorado, Reference Evapotranspiration (ET) for Evapotranspiration (ET) Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03

9 COLORADO, KANSAS AND NEBRASKA Average annual precipitation

10 Monthly Average Precipitation for selected stations in the Ogallala Aquifer 4.0 Ogallala Aquifer Monthly Average Precipitation ( ) Precipitation (inches) N Platte, NE Goodland, KS Holyoke, CO Holly, CO Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

11 But are we ever "Average"? But are we ever "Average"? Burlington Water Year (Oct-Sep) Precipitation from YEAR Precipitation (inches)

12 Climate Divisions Kansas Colorado

13 Kansas Basin (CO-03) Annual Precipitation Totals Colorado (Div 3) Annual Precipitation Totals Year Precipitation (inches)

14 Kansas Northwest Basin (KS-04) Annual Precipitation Totals Kansas (Div 4) Annual Precipitation Total Precipitation (inches) Year

15 Month SPI Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 48 month SPI ( ) Year Fraction (in percent)

16 Where do we stand now, and how did we get there?

17 Drought Monitor Map

18 1999 Water Year Precipitation

19 2000 Water Year Precipitation

20 2001 Water Year Precipitation

21 2002 Water Year Precipitation

22 2003 Water Year Precipitation

23 2004 Water Year Precipitation

24 2005 Water Year Precipitation as Percent of Average

25 Akron Accumulated Precipitation Deficit 4.0 Akron 4E Accumulated Precipitation Deficit since 1990 compared to average 2.0 Precipitation (inches) Year

26 Cheyenne Wells Accumulated Precipitation Cheyenne Wells Accumulated Precipitation Deficit since 1990 compared to average 12.0 Precipitation (inches) Year

27 Holyoke Accumulated Precipitation 6.0 Holyoke, Colorado Accumulated Precipitation Deficit since 1990 compared to average 4.0 Precipitation (Inches) Year

28 Eastern Plains Temperature Eastern Plains Temperature Departures from Average Eastern Plains Departure from Average (deg F) from October 2000 to January 2006 Temperature Departure (Deg F) Oct-00 Dec-00 Feb-01 Apr-01 Jun-01 Aug-01 Oct-01 Dec-01 Feb-02 Apr-02 Jun-02 Aug-02 Oct-02 Dec-02 Feb-03 Apr-03 Jun-03 Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05

29 Akron Spring Temperatures Akron Spring Temperatures Akron Average Temperatures Spring (Mar-May) Temperature (deg F)

30 Akron Summer Temperatures Akron Summer Temperatures Akron Average Temperatures Summer (Jun-Aug) Temperature (deg F)

31 Akron Fall Temperatures Akron Fall Temperatures Akron Average Temperatures Fall (Sep-Nov) Temperature (deg F)

32 Akron Winter Temperatures Akron Winter Temperatures Akron Average Temperatures Winter (Dec-Feb) Temperature (deg F)

33 Idalia CoAgMet Reference ET Idalia CoAgMet Reference ET Values ET (In) Average Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Month

34 Summer (May Sep) 2005 precipitation as percent of average

35 October 2005 Precipitation as Percent of Average

36 Akron 2005 daily precipitation compared to daily average Precipitation (Inches) Akron 4E Daily Accumulated Precipitation for Year 2005 and 30-Year Average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

37 Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) Holyoke, 2004 & 2005 daily accumulated precipitation compared to daily average Average 2005 Holyoke Daily Accumulated Precipitation for 2004, 2005 and 30-year average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

38 Akron 4E 2006 Water Year Akron 4E 2006 Water Year 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months

39 Cheyenne Wells 2006 Water Year Cheyenne Wells 2006 Water Year 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year 2002 Water Year Accumulated Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months

40 Burlington 2006 Water Year Burlington 2006 Water Year 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year 2002 Water Year Accumulated Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months

41 Washington County 10/10/05

42 Washington County 10/11/05

44 Precipitation We could sure use more data!

45 What is CoCoRaHS? CoCoRaHS is a unique, non-profit community based network of volunteers of all ages and backgrounds working together to measure and map precipitation (rain, hail and snow).

46 By using low-cost measurement tools, stressing training and education, and utilizing an interactive Web-site, our aim is to provide the highest quality data for natural resource, education and research applications.

47 Some reasons for measuring

48 1) Precipitation is important and highly variable

49 2) Existing weather stations are too far apart

50 3) ) Electronic measurements s of precipitation are unsatisfactory

51 4) Storm reports can save lives

52 What s s Involved?

53 How to sign up? See Me after talk or Fill out application at CoCoRaHS display or Fill out Join Us form online at

54 Finally, what's ahead for this Spring and Summer?

55 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

56 Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) Last update: February 6,

57 El Nino Forecast

58 Temperature Mar-May May 2006 From the Colorado Prediction Center

59 Precipitation Mar-May May 2006 From the Colorado Prediction Center

Temperature Jun-Aug 2006 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.

60 Temperature Jun-Aug 2006 From the Colorado Prediction Center

61 Precipitation Jun-Aug 2006 From the Colorado Prediction Center

63 Conclusion: We're one dry spring away from being back in severe drought, and one wet spring away from being happier.

64 But in this land, any drought recovery is temporary " 18" of moisture is a lot better than nothing, but it doesn't leave you any margin.

65 Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading click on Drought then click on Presentations

Nolan Doesken. Colorado Climate Center.

Nolan Doesken. Colorado Climate Center. Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center Presented to: Colorado Conservation Tillage Association, Greeley, CO, February 1-2, 1 2005 http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu Prepared by Odie Bliss 1 Key Features of