Chart Discussion: Fri-17-Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Combining Forecasts (Apr 13th to Aug 15th)
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1 Combining Forecasts (Apr 13th to Aug 15th) 1
2 Last Week s Rainfall 1
3 Chart Discussion: Fri-17Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Last Week s Surface Charts 3
4 Chart Discussion: Fri-17Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) This Month s ACCESS Model Forecasts 3pm Wind Direction Days 1-10 From Left to Right 1- Aug- 18 WNW WNW WNW WNW N WNW WNW WNW W N 2- Aug- 18 N N N N N N N N N W 3- Aug- 18 N N N N N NNW N N SSW NNW 4- Aug- 18 N N N WNW N N N N W SW 5- Aug- 18 N N N N NNW N N N NNE N 6- Aug- 18 NNW NNW NNW NNW W W N NNW N NNW 7- Aug- 18 W W W W W NNW NNW W NNW W 8- Aug- 18 W W NNW W W W W N W NNW 9- Aug- 18 N N N N N N N WNW NNW W 10- Aug- 18 NNW N NNW N N NNW NNW NNW N SW 11- Aug- 18 W W W SW SW SW W W W NNW 12- Aug- 18 W W W W W W W W NNW W 13- Aug- 18 W W W W W W SW W W NNW 14- Aug- 18 N N W W WNW W NNW N W W 15- Aug- 18 W W W NNW NNW NNW W NNW N NNW 16- Aug- 18 W W W W W W W W NNW W 17- Aug- 18 NNW NNW NNW NNW NNW W W SW W 18- Aug- 18 W W W W W W NNW W 19- Aug- 18 SW SW SW SW WNW WNW N 20- Aug- 18 SW SW WNW W NNW NNW 21- Aug- 18 SW S N N SW 22- Aug- 18 N S N NNW 23- Aug- 18 N S NNE 24- Aug- 18 S NNE 25- Aug- 18 SSE 4
5 Chart Discussion: Fri-10-Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Last Week s Model Forecasts OBSERVED 168H ACCESS 168H GFS 168H ECMWF 5
6 MSL Analysis / Sat Image (Fri) 6
7 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Click on: 7
8 Climate Indices Chart Discussion: Fri-17-Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Little change in the tropical Pacific; El Niño remains possible in
9 Go to Chart Discussion: Fri-17-Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Current BoM Seasonal Outlook Issued 16-Aug The climate outlook, issued 16 August 2018, shows the first months of spring (September and October) are likely to be drier than average for most of northern, eastern and southern Australia. Spring days are likely to be warmer than average. Nights are also likely to be warmer than average for most areas, except for parts of northern Australia and the southeast of the mainland. 9
10 Seasonal Outlook (Statistical Model) Victoria Sep. Oct. Nov. The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.16 (0.31 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -1.49, the average SOI for the past 30 days is 0, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for JUL/AUG is Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a very weak El Niño. This suggests: RAINFALL: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that total SEP/OCT/NOV rainfall will be below normal in all Victorian Districts. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average SEP/OCT/NOV overnight temperatures will be below normal in the NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and WESTERN Districts, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that overnight temperatures will be above normal in the MALLEE District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average SEP/OCT/NOV daytime temperatures will be above normal in all Victorian Districts.
11 Jet Streams: Fri-17-Aug
12 MSL Pressure: Fri-17-Aug
13 Jet Streams: Sat-18-Aug
14 Chart Discussion: Fri-11-Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) MSL Pressure: Sat-18-Aug
15 Jet Streams: Sun-19-Aug
16 MSL Pressure: Sun-19-Aug
17 Jet Streams: Mon-20-Aug
18 MSL Pressure: Mon-20-Aug
19 Chart Discussion: Fri-17Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Jet Streams: Tue-21-Aug
20 Chart Discussion: Fri-17-Aug2018 (Harvey Stern) MSL Pressure: Tue-21-Aug
21 Jet Streams: Wed-22-Aug
22 MSL Pressure: Wed-22-Aug
23 Jet Streams: Thu-23-Aug
24 MSL Pressure: Thu-23-Aug
25 Next Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-23-Aug H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 25
26 Following ACCESS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-24-Aug-2018 to Sun-26-Aug-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 26
27 Following ECMWF MSLP Forecasts: Fri-24-Aug-2018 to Sun-26-Aug-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 27
28 Following GFS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-24-Aug-2018 to Sun-26-Aug-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 28
29 PREDICTED WEATHER : ACCESS model, GFS model, ECMWF model Click on : 29
30 Chart Discussion: Fri-17-Aug-2018 Thank You 30
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