Chart Discussion: Fri-15-Jun-2018 Rainfall Last Week
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1 Chart Discussion: Fri-15-Jun-2018 Rainfall Last Week 1
2 Last Week s Charts 2
3 Last Week s Melbourne Wind Forecasts Forecast 3 PM WIND for 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 Days Ahead [ACCESS model] 1- Jun- 18 SSE SSE S SSW SW SW NNE SSE SW N 2- Jun- 18 S SSE SSE S NNW SW S N N WNW 3- Jun- 18 S S SSW S SSW NNW SSW S N N 4- Jun- 18 SSW S S SSW SSW SSW WNW W S S 5- Jun- 18 SSE S SSE SSE S S S WNW SW S 6- Jun- 18 NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE S SSW S 7- Jun- 18 N N N N N N N N N N 8- Jun- 18 N N N N N N N NNW N N 9- Jun- 18 S NNW S SSW SW W W NNW NNW NNE 10- Jun- 18 SSE SSE SSE NE S S N NNW W SSE 11- Jun- 18 N NNE N N N NNE NNW NNW W WNW 12- Jun- 18 N N N NNW NNW W NNE NNW SW NNW 13- Jun- 18 NNW NNW NNW NNW NNW W W NNW NNW NNW 14- Jun- 18 NNW NNW NNW NNW SW NNW NNW SSW NNW NNW 15- Jun- 18 W W W W W W W W WNW S 16- Jun- 18 W W SW W W NNW SW SW WNW 17- Jun- 18 SW SW SW SW SW SSW SW S 18- Jun- 18 SW SW SSW S SW SSW SSW 19- Jun- 18 SSE S N NE S N 20- Jun- 18 N N N N N 21- Jun- 18 W N N NNW 22- Jun- 18 SSW NNW N 23- Jun- 18 SSW W 24- Jun- 18 SSW 3
4 MSL Analysis / Sat Image (Thu) 4
5 MSL Analysis / Sat Image (Fri) 5
6 Last Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-14-Jun H ACCESS 144H US GFS 168H ECMWF 6
7 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Click on: 7
8 Climate Indices Chart Discussion: Fri-15-Jun-2018 (Harvey Stern) El Niño Southern Oscillation neutral, but tropical Pacific Ocean warming 8
9 BoM Seasonal Outlook Issued 14 Jun: Drier than average three months likely for southeast Australia Rainfall Min Temp Max Temp 9
10 Seasonal Outlook (Statistical Model) Victoria Jul-Sep The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for MAY/JUN is Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a very weak La Niña. This suggests: RAINFALL: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that total JUL/AUG/SEP rainfall will be above normal in most districts OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES:There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average JUL/AUG/SEP overnight temperatures will be above normal in some districts DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average JUL/AUG/SEP daytime temperatures will be below normal in some districts
11 Monthly Outlook (Statistical Model) Melbourne In Melbourne, at this time of the year, a combination of the MEI, the DMI, and the MJO Phase, such as what we have operating now, suggests, over the following 30 days: RAINFALL: There is a 41% chance of it being wet, a 33% chance of normal rainfall, and a 26% chance of it being dry. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a 36% chance of warm nights, a 33% chance of normal overnight temperatures, and a 31% chance of cool nights. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a 25% chance of warm days, a 32% chance of normal daytime temperatures, and a 43% chance of cool days. 11
12 Jet Streams: Fri-15-Jun
13 MSL Pressure: Fri-15-Jun
14 Jet Streams: Sat-16-Jun
15 MSL Pressure: Sat-16-Jun
16 Jet Streams: Sun-17-Jun
17 MSL Pressure: Sun-17-Jun
18 Jet Streams: Mon-18-Jun
19 MSL Pressure: Mon-18-Jun
20 Jet Streams: Tue-19-Jun
21 MSL Pressure: Tue-19-Jun
22 Jet Streams: Wed-20-Jun
23 MSL Pressure: Wed-20-Jun
24 Jet Streams: Thu-21-Jun
25 MSL Pressure: Thu-21-Jun
26 Next Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-21-Jun H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 26
27 Following Three-Day ACCESS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-22-Jun-2018 to Sun-24-Jun-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 27
28 PREDICTED WEATHER : ACCESS model Click on : 28
29 Following Three-Day GFS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-22-Jun-2018 to Sun-24-Jun-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 29
30 PREDICTED WEATHER : GFS model Click on : 30
31 Following Three-Day ECMWF MSLP Forecasts: Fri-22-Jun-2018 to Sun-24-Jun-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 31
32 PREDICTED WEATHER : ECMWF model Click on : 32
33 Chart Discussion: Fri-15-Jun-2018 Thank You 33
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