Nolan Doesken. Colorado Climate Center.

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1 Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center Presented to: Colorado Conservation Tillage Association, Greeley, CO, February 1-2, Prepared by Odie Bliss 1

2 Key Features of the Climate of Colorado Photo by Ian Wittmeyer 2

3 Solar Energy Drives Our Climate Greeley, July 16 21, 2004 CoAgMet station, yearly cycle, any station Greeley, Jan-Dec

4 Flagler Temperature Averages Flagler Average Temperatures for the period Mean Max. Temperature (F) Mean Min. Temperature (F) Temperature (degrees F) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month 4

5 Average Temperatures: Selected Eastern Colorado Locations Comparison of Flagler monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures with other surrounding cities for the period Temperature (degrees F) Flagler max Lamar max Flagler min Lamar min 20 Goodland, KS max Goodland, KS min 10 Denver max Sterling max Denver min Sterling min 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5

6 Summer Temperature Perspective 6

7 Summer Temperature Perspective 7

8 Akron Average Winter and Summer Temperature Comparison Akron Average Winter and Summer Temperatures Summer (Jun-Aug) Winter (Dec-Feb) 8 Temperature (degrees F)

9 Mean Monthly Pan Evaporation Monthly Pan Evaporation for Akron and Bonny Dam Akron Bonny Dam 10 Evaporation (inches) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month 9

10 Relative Humidity for Kirk, Colo

11 Goodland, KS, Average Wind Speed Goodland, KS, Mean Monthly Wind Speed Wind Speed (mph) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 11

12 Precipitation Strasburg, Colo, Photo by Ian Wittmeyer 12

Precipitation: Annual Climatology (1971-2000) Copyright 2004, Spatial Climate Analysis

14 Colorado Average Annual Precipitation 14

15 Precipitation Highly seasonal, but seasonal pattern varies with topography High mountains wet in winter-spring and again in later summer Foothills and eastern plains very dry in winter, wetter in spring and summer 15

16 Precipitation Averages for Selected Sites 3.5 Monthly Average Precipitation from Precipitation (Inches) Akron 4 E Byers Fort Morgan Karval Longmont January February March April May June Months July August September October November December 16

17 Precipitation Averages for Selected Sites 4.0 Comparison Monthly Precipitation for Selected Sites ( averages) Precipitation (inches) Flagler Lamar Goodland, KS Denver Rocky Ford Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 17

18 Precipitation Averages for Selected Sites Monthly Precipitation Averages for Selected Sites ( averages) Ogallala Holyoke Precipitation (inches) Sterling Greeley Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 18

$Precipitation A few storms contribute a large fraction of annual$

19 Precipitation A few storms contribute a large fraction of annual precipitation while many small events contribute a small fraction. 19

20 25 Akron Daily Accumulated Precipitation Akron 4E Daily Accumulated Precipitation for Years 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 30-Year Average Average Precipitation (Inches) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 20

21 Average Wheat-Season Precipitation September June (Inches) (Based on observed data) Provided by the Colorado Climate Center 21

22 Average May-June Precipitation (Inches) (Based on observed data) 22

23 Average Precipitation (Inches) For the Period 15 July 25 August (Based on observed data) 23

24 Precipitation No two years are ever the same. Annual precipitation varies greatly from year to year. 24

25 Burlington Water Year Precipitation Totals Burlington Water Year Precipitation Totals (Years ) Years Precipitation (Inches)

26 Akron Water Year Precipitation Totals Akron Water Year (Oct-Sep) Precipitation from Precipitation (inches)

27 What s the Status of Drought Now?? 27

28 Month SPI Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 3 month SPI ( ) Year Fraction (in percent)

29 48-Month SPI Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 48 month SPI ( ) Year 29 Fraction (in percent)

30 1999 Water Year Precipitation 30

31 September 1999 Drought Monitor Map 31

32 2000 Water Year Precipitation 32

33 October 2000 Drought Monitor Map 33

34 2001 Water Year Precipitation 34

35 October 2001 Drought Monitor Map 35

36 2002 Water Year Precipitation 36

37 October 2002 Drought Monitor Map 37

38 2003 Water Year Precipitation 38

39 September 2003 Drought Monitor Map 39

40 2004 Water Year Precipitation 40

41 September 2004 Drought Monitor Map 41

42 March 2004 Percent of Average

43 April 2004 Percent of Average

44 Winter 2004 (Oct 03-April 04) Percent of Average 44

45 May 2004 Percent of Average

46 June 2004 Percent of Average

47 July 2004 Percent of Average

48 August 2004 Percent of Average 48

49 September 2004 Percent Average

50 September 2004 Daily Precipitation 0.6 September Precipitation (inches) Days Eastern Plains Foothills/Adjacent Plains Mountains/Interior Valleys Western Valleys 28 50

51 Oct 2003-Sept WY Percent of Average

52 May-Sept 2004 Growing Season as Percent of Average

53 Water Year 2004 temperature departures from average 8 Water Year 2004 Departure from average, degree F Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys 53

54 WY2004 Highlights Record warmth in October Freezing drizzle storm for Halloween, cloudy Good early snows over SW Colorado Cold and snowcovered on the Western Slope midwinter Fairly dry and dull midwinter elsewhere A cold February Very warm and dry March Wet April -- Hurray! Oops, warm and dry again in May Cool and damp summer east of mountains Hot and dry to the west Moisture onslaught into Western Colorado in September 54

55 What Comes Next? 55

56 Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) Last update: January 7,

57 El Nino Forecast 57

58 Temperature Feb-Apr 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center 58

59 Precipitation Feb-Apr 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center 59

60 Temperature Mar-May May 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center 60

61 Precipitation Mar-May May 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center 61

Temperature Jun-Aug 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center 62 http://www.cpc.ncep.

62 Temperature Jun-Aug 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center 62

63 Precipitation Jun-Aug 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center 63

Our Path For 2005 30 Akron 4E 2005 Water Year (Oct '04 - Dec '04) 30

Average - 1906-2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated Accumulated

64 Our Path For Akron 4E 2005 Water Year (Oct '04 - Dec '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP 64

of: Temperature Humidity Wind Precipitation

65 CoAgMet Weather Data for Agriculture Automated weather stations with daily and hourly readings of: Temperature Humidity Wind Precipitation Solar energy Evapotranspiration 65

66 Colorado Climate Magazine Good bedtime reading about the climate of Colorado -- recent and historic $15/year subscription pays printing and mailing costs 66

CoCoRaHS Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network

org Over 1,000 volunteers participate in rain, hail and snow

More accurate maps, verifies forecasting, radar research, crop

67 CoCoRaHS Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network Over 1,000 volunteers participate in rain, hail and snow measurements. More accurate maps, verifies forecasting, radar research, crop damage, drought/flooding, educational purposes. Support for this project provided by Informal Science Education Program, National Science Foundation and many local charter sponsors. 67

68 Eastern Colorado Precipitation August 5, 2004 CoCoRaHS Eastern Colorado august 5,

69 Eastern Colorado Precipitation January 31,

70 Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading click on Drought then click on Presentations 70

Drought: What is the Status?

Drought: What is the Status? Nolan J. Doesken Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu Presented at 2005 Peak to Prairie Landscape Symposium, February 11, 2005,