Rice Yield And Dangue Haemorrhagic Fever(DHF) Condition depend upon Climate Data

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Rice Yield And Dangue Haemorrhagic Fever(DHF) Condition depend upon Climate Data"

Rose Burns
5 years ago
Views:

1 Rice Yield And Dangue Haemorrhagic Fever(DHF) Condition depend upon Climate Data Dr Lai Lai Aung, Assistant Director( Met Service) Dr Khaing Khaing Soe Assistant Director(Public Health) Dr Thin Nwe htwe Staff Officer(Agriculture)

Background Total area 678,500 square KM Latitudes 9.8 N - 29.8 N, Longitudes 92.2 E - 101.1 E.

east, Thailand on the southeast, Bangladesh on the west, India on the west & northwest the Bay of

2 Background Total area 678,500 square KM Latitudes 9.8 N N, Longitudes 92.2 E E. Lies in the Tropic 14 Regions & State Neighbouring Countries China on the northeast, Laos on the east, Thailand on the southeast, Bangladesh on the west, India on the west & northwest the Bay of Bengal to the west & southwest, Andaman Sea at the South INDIA BANGLA DESH BOB ANDA MAN SEA CHINA LAOS THAILAND

3 The Climate of Myanmar lies in the monsoon region of Asia. roughly divided into three seasons: Summer Season (Mar to mid May), Rainy Season (mid May to Oct), Winter Season (Nov to Feb) the central myanmar area an average annual rainfall, 30 inches coastal region with annual average rainfall, 200 inhes Topography: mountainous area to the north, west and eastern parts, low land and deltaic areas and dry zone area in the central Myanmar areas Population:52 million

4 Land Utilization in Myanmar ( ) Other Land 24.60% Net Sown Area 17.70% Fallow Land 0.70% Culturable Waste Land 7.80% Other Forests 21.80% Reserved Forests 27.50% 4

5 Number of Stations over the Country N INDIA CHINA LAOS THAILAND ANDAMAN SEA 4 Total:

8 Comparison Rice Yield and Txgt50p (days above average temperature) data for Ayeyarwaddy Region( Pathein) Rice yield Txgt50p adjusted Correlation=0.74 Rice yield was related with Txgt50p at the year of 1994,00, ,09

10 Comparison DHF and HWF(Heat wave frequency) data for Ayeyarwaddy Region( Pathein) Health HWF Correlation=0.42 DHF was related with HWF at the year of 98,2002, 2005

12 Comparison Rice yield and Tx90p(amount of hot days) data for Ayeyarwaddy Region( Pathein) Rice Yield Tx90p Correlation=0.80 Rice yield was related with Tx90p most the year except the year 98,03,04,05

13 Rainfall Comparison between Normal( ) & Normal( ) Normal( ) Normal( ) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC (81-10) normal was decreasing at the month of May, June, July and August and it was nearly unchanged for the other months.

14 Minimum Temperature Comparison between Normal( ) & Normal( ) Normal( ) Normal( ) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC normal minimum temperature was decreasing from month January to May and September to December. It was nearly unchanged at month July and August.

15 Maximum Temperature Comparison between Normal( ) & Normal( ) Normal( ) Normal( ) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC normal maximum temperature was increasing nearly all months except February and December. It was clear that rate of maximum temperature was higher at the month April,May June, July and August compare to other months.

16 Results Txgt 50p, Tx90p, HWF indices are relevant and beneficial for Rice yield and DHF diseases. Normal maximum temperature is also increasing all month of Myanmar except February and December and minimum temperature were decreasing. Normal rainfall pattern also shifted, it is decreasing in the month of May, June, July and August and rest of month is nearly unchanged.

17 Myanmar: Health sector overview The Ministry of Health and Sports (Formerly, Ministry of Health) is responsible for enhancing the health status of the population through delivering comprehensive health services pertaining to the promotion of good health, the prevention of disease, and the provision of effective treatment and rehabilitation. It executes these health services through seven departments: 1. Department of Public Health 2. Department of Medical Services 3. Department of Heath Professional Resource Development and Management 4. Department of Medical Research 5. Department of Traditional Medicine 6. Department of Food and Drug Administration 7. Department of Sports and Physical Education

18 Comparison Health and Txgt50p (days above average temperature) data for Ayeyarwaddy Region( Pathein) correlation=0.63 (98,01,02,05,07) Health Txgt50p adjusted

19 Comparison DHF and Tx90p(amount of hot days) data for Ayeyarwaddy Region( Pathein) correlation=0.55 (91,93,98,01,02,05,07) Health Tx90p

20 Comparison DHF cases and Txm(mean daily max temp) data for Ayeyarwaddy Region( Pathein) correlation=0.46 (91,93,98,02,05,07) DHF Cases txm

21 DHF cases and PRCPTOT (Annual total wet day) (94,97,01,02,07,09) DHF Cases prcptot correlation=0.4

22 Model Summary Model R R square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate a. Predictors: (Constant), Txgt50p, PRCPTOT b. Dependent Variable: DHF

23 ANOVA Model R df Mean Square F Sig Regression Residual Total 4.503E E E E E a. Predictors: (Constant), Txgt50p, PRCPTOT b. Dependent Variable: DHF

24 conclusion In this study, we compare Annual DHF cases in Myanmar with Txgt50p (fraction of days with above average temperature), Tx90p (Amount of hot days), Txm (mean daily maxium temperature and PRCPTOT (Annual total wet day). We found that increase in days with above average temperature and increase in wet day are associated with increase in DHF cases. In Myanmar, mountain areas are cold and previously no DHF case and now increase in temperature in mountain area and more DHF cases are found.

25 Annual Total Wet-day PR with rice yield Rice Yield PRCPTOT

26 No. of heavy rain days (30mm) with rice yield y = x Rice Yield R30mm Adjusted Linear (R30mm)

27 Growing Degree Days with Rice Yield y = x Rice Yield GDDgrown Adjusted Linear (GDDgrown)

28 Regression model Model Summary Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate a a. Predictors: (Constant), Growing degree days, Number of heavy rain days Model 1 Regression Residual Total ANOVAb Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig a a. Predictors: (Constant), Growing degree days, Number of heavy rain days b. Dependent Variable: Rice Yield

29 Results For paddy production, not only climate data influence but also other factors (eg. Varieties, Soil Types, Fertilizer Application, Crop Management and Pest and Diseases, so on). But the climate data can really influence when the drought have the whole growing season or heavy rain (flood) during the harvesting time, so on. The relationship of climate indices and other crops production (maize or pigeon pea), the correlation will be high. And the seasonal data will be beneficial.

30 Annual mean daily maximum temperature For the year 2099

31 Annual sum of daily precipitation To get more accuracy, we need to use much more images and high resolution (30 m and 10 m, 5 m resolution) Predict for drought, flood and cyclone to use in agriculture sector

32 Thank you!!

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul