Seasonal predictions of equatorial Atlantic SST in a low-resolution CGCM with surface Heat Flux Correction
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![Kiel [2] Cooperate Institute for Research in](/docs-images/82/86966722/images/1-2.jpg "Environmental Sciences - University of Colorado and NOAA")
1 Seasonal predictions of equatorial Atlantic SST in a low-resolution CGCM with surface Heat Flux Correction T. Dippe 1, R. Greatbatch 1, and H. Ding 2 [1] GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel [2] Cooperate Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences - University of Colorado and NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory, Boulder, USA
2 Setting the scene Absolute SST mean state in ERA-Interim for April (left) and August (fully developed cold tongue, right), The box denotes the Atl3 region. T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 2 / 12
3 ERA-Interim Atl3 SST T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 3 / 12
4 ERA-Interim Atl3 SST T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 3 / 12
5 Atl3 SST: Interannual variance T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 4 / 12
6 The equatorial Atlantic SST Bias: State of the Art Mean SST bias: STD KCM minus ERA-Interim, Units: Deg C T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 5 / 12
7 The equatorial Atlantic SST Bias: State of the Art Seasonality of the SST bias in Atl3, KCM STD run T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 6 / 12
8 Model and experimental Set-Up The truth: ERA-Interim The model Kiel Climate Model (KCM): - Atmosphere: ECHAM5, T31, 19 levels - Ocean: OPA9 (NEMO), ORCA2, 31 levels - - Coupler: OASIS3 The time: Experiments (both for assimilation runs and hindcasts) STD: Standard KCM FLX: Additional global heat flux correction Assimilation runs: Produce initial conditions for hindcasts Assimilated data: ERA-Interim wind stress anomalies Assimilation technique: Partial coupling Hindcasts: Restarted in Feb, May, Aug, Nov Run for 6 months: Fully coupled standard (heat-flux corrected) KCM for STD (FLX) 9 ensemble members T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 7 / 12
9 Model and experimental Set-Up The truth: ERA-Interim The model Kiel Climate Model (KCM): - Atmosphere: ECHAM5, T31, 19 levels - Ocean: OPA9 (NEMO), ORCA2, 31 levels - - Coupler: OASIS3 The time: Experiments (both for assimilation runs and hindcasts) STD: Standard KCM FLX: Additional global heat flux correction Assimilation runs: Produce initial conditions for hindcasts Assimilated data: ERA-Interim wind stress anomalies Assimilation technique: Partial coupling Hindcasts: Restarted in Feb, May, Aug, Nov Run for 6 months: Fully coupled standard (heat-flux corrected) KCM for STD (FLX) 9 ensemble members T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 7 / 12
10 Model and experimental Set-Up The truth: ERA-Interim The model Kiel Climate Model (KCM): - Atmosphere: ECHAM5, T31, 19 levels - Ocean: OPA9 (NEMO), ORCA2, 31 levels - - Coupler: OASIS3 The time: Experiments (both for assimilation runs and hindcasts) STD: Standard KCM FLX: Additional global heat flux correction Assimilation runs: Produce initial conditions for hindcasts Assimilated data: ERA-Interim wind stress anomalies Assimilation technique: Partial coupling Hindcasts: Restarted in Feb, May, Aug, Nov Run for 6 months: Fully coupled standard (heat-flux corrected) KCM for STD (FLX) 9 ensemble members T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 7 / 12
11 Model and experimental Set-Up The truth: ERA-Interim The model Kiel Climate Model (KCM): - Atmosphere: ECHAM5, T31, 19 levels - Ocean: OPA9 (NEMO), ORCA2, 31 levels - - Coupler: OASIS3 The time: Experiments (both for assimilation runs and hindcasts) STD: Standard KCM FLX: Additional global heat flux correction Assimilation runs: Produce initial conditions for hindcasts Assimilated data: ERA-Interim wind stress anomalies Assimilation technique: Partial coupling Hindcasts: Restarted in Feb, May, Aug, Nov Run for 6 months: Fully coupled standard (heat-flux corrected) KCM for STD (FLX) 9 ensemble members T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 7 / 12
12 Model and experimental Set-Up The truth: ERA-Interim The model Kiel Climate Model (KCM): - Atmosphere: ECHAM5, T31, 19 levels - Ocean: OPA9 (NEMO), ORCA2, 31 levels - - Coupler: OASIS3 The time: Experiments (both for assimilation runs and hindcasts) STD: Standard KCM FLX: Additional global heat flux correction Assimilation runs: Produce initial conditions for hindcasts Assimilated data: ERA-Interim wind stress anomalies Assimilation technique: Partial coupling Hindcasts: Restarted in Feb, May, Aug, Nov Run for 6 months: Fully coupled standard (heat-flux corrected) KCM for STD (FLX) 9 ensemble members T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 7 / 12
13 Model and experimental Set-Up The truth: ERA-Interim The model Kiel Climate Model (KCM): - Atmosphere: ECHAM5, T31, 19 levels - Ocean: OPA9 (NEMO), ORCA2, 31 levels - - Coupler: OASIS3 The time: Experiments (both for assimilation runs and hindcasts) STD: Standard KCM FLX: Additional global heat flux correction Assimilation runs: Produce initial conditions for hindcasts Assimilated data: ERA-Interim wind stress anomalies Assimilation technique: Partial coupling Hindcasts: Restarted in Feb, May, Aug, Nov Run for 6 months: Fully coupled standard (heat-flux corrected) KCM for STD (FLX) 9 ensemble members T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 7 / 12
14 Surface Heat Flux Correction Introduce SST bias correction via surface heat flux correction T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 8 / 12
15 Bias correction improves summer variability in the assimilation runs Monthly anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) between ERA-Interim and assimilation runs T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 9 / 12
16 Impact on Forecast Skill? Start seasonal hindcasts, 9 ensemble members, 6 months each T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 9 / 12
17 Hindcast Skill FLX + STD + FLX raw STD raw Persistence (ERA-Interim) T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 10 / 12
18 Hindcast Skill FLX + STD + FLX raw STD raw Persistence (ERA-Interim) T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 10 / 12
19 Hindcast Skill FLX + STD + FLX raw STD raw Persistence (ERA-Interim) T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 10 / 12
20 Observed Atl3 SST predictability limits T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 11 / 12
21 Take-Home Message 1. The Atlantic Niño is the dominant mode of interannual SST variability in the equatorial Atlantic. 2. SST bias alleviation systematically improves both the boreal summer initial conditions and seasonal hindcasts. 3. Incorporating skill into dynamical forecasts allows for useful forecasts 2-3 months ahead. 4. Stochastic processes suggest that SST predictions for JFM and August are greatly impaired. T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona 12 / 12
22 Additional Material The Atlantic Niño: Composite evolution T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona
23 Additional Material Hindcast Skill: February FLX + STD + FLX raw STD raw Persistence (ERA-Interim) T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona
24 Additional Material Hindcast Skill: May FLX + STD + FLX raw STD raw Persistence (ERA-Interim) T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona
25 Additional Material Hindcast Skill: August FLX + STD + FLX raw STD raw Persistence (ERA-Interim) T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona
26 Additional Material Hindcast Skill: November FLX + STD + FLX raw STD raw Persistence (ERA-Interim) T. Dippe: Atlantic Niño & SST Bias May 10th, 2016, Barcelona
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