North Atlantic wave height climate towards the end of the 21st century
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1 North Atlantic wave height climate towards the end of the 1st century Øyvind Breivik, Ole Johan Aarnes and Magnar Reistad RCP85-HISTORIC: annualmean [%] -1 Ø Breivik et al (MET Norway) North Atlantic Wave Heights 71 6 September 18 1 / 1
2 Outline of presentation CMIP5 climate projections Experiment setup Wave model setup Trends in mean and upper percentiles Changes in extremes Conclusions and further work Ø Breivik et al (MET Norway) North Atlantic Wave Heights 71 6 September 18 / 1
3 Motivation CMIP5 models in general do not incorporate wave models, but there is a clear need for estimates of how the wave climate may change in the future for existing petroleum installations Ø Breivik et al (MET Norway) North Atlantic Wave Heights 71 6 September 18 3 / 1
4 Motivation CMIP5 models in general do not incorporate wave models, but there is a clear need for estimates of how the wave climate may change in the future for existing petroleum installations future offshore wind and wave installations Ø Breivik et al (MET Norway) North Atlantic Wave Heights 71 6 September 18 3 / 1
5 Motivation CMIP5 models in general do not incorporate wave models, but there is a clear need for estimates of how the wave climate may change in the future for existing petroleum installations future offshore wind and wave installations... and because it is a scientific question that needs to be answered Ø Breivik et al (MET Norway) North Atlantic Wave Heights 71 6 September 18 3 / 1
6 CMIP5 scenarios RCP.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway to.5 W/m radiative forcing) Source: Wikipedia (Creative Commons Licence) Ø Breivik et al (MET Norway) North Atlantic Wave Heights 71 6 September 18 / 1
7 CMIP5 scenarios RCP.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway to.5 W/m radiative forcing) RCP8.5 (8.5 W/m radiative forcing) Source: Wikipedia (Creative Commons Licence) Ø Breivik et al (MET Norway) North Atlantic Wave Heights 71 6 September 18 / 1
8 CMIP5 models Model Res (lon/lat) Hist # Future # GFDL-CM EC-Earth MRI-CGCM MIROC IPSL-CM5A-MR HadGEM-ES Ø Breivik et al (MET Norway) North Atlantic Wave Heights 71 6 September 18 5 / 1
9 Wave model integrations The WAM wave model was set up on a domain with 5 km spatial resolution, covering the North Atlantic. Wave fields are output with 3-hourly temporal resolution. The wind forcing was interpolated from CMIP5 1-m wind fields Ice cover was changed once a month based on CMIP5 ice concentration Ø Breivik et al (MET Norway) North Atlantic Wave Heights 71 6 September 18 6 / 1
10 Assessing the historical runs The wave model integrations were compared against the NORA1 hindcast archive (Reistad et al, 11). Ø Breivik et al (MET Norway) North Atlantic Wave Heights 71 6 September 18 7 / 1
11 Standardising climate projections against historical runs CMIP5 models yield widely different historical wave climate both in terms of bias and activity (variance). In order to compare their future wave climate, the wave model projections had to be standardised against their historical counterparts H (Hist,RCP) s,annual H Hist s,annual std(hs,annual Hist ). (1) Ø Breivik et al (MET Norway) North Atlantic Wave Heights 71 6 September 18 8 / 1
12 Comparison of historical runs against a hindcast Ø Breivik et al (MET Norway) North Atlantic Wave Heights 71 6 September 18 9 / 1
13 Standardised annual mean, RCP.5 and RCP8.5 RCP5-HISTORIC: annualmean RCP85-HISTORIC: annualmean QQ-annualmean: HIST vs FUTURE RCP5 RCP5 - mean RCP85 RCP85 - mean -1-1 Future standardized [%] [%] Historic standardized Quantile-quantile distribution of annual mean for a location in the North Atlantic (right panel) reveals that RCP8.5 has larger variance than RCP.5, but lower overall mean. Both have higher variance than the historical climate (x -axis). Ø Breivik et al (MET Norway) North Atlantic Wave Heights 71 6 September 18 1 / 1
14 Standardised annual 99 percentiles, RCP.5 and RCP8.5 QQ-annualp99: HIST vs FUTURE Future standardized [%] RCP85-HISTORIC: annualp99 1 [%] RCP5-HISTORIC: annualp99 RCP5 RCP5 - mean RCP85 RCP85 - mean -5 5 Historic standardized This tendency is also seen towards the upper percentiles (see right panel), but their overall mean is now more similar. Ø Breivik et al (MET Norway) North Atlantic Wave Heights 71 6 September / 1
15 Standardised annual maxima, RCP.5 and RCP8.5 QQ-annualmax: HIST vs FUTURE RCP85-HISTORIC: annualmax RCP5 RCP5 - mean RCP85 RCP85 - mean Future standardized 1 [%] 1 [%] RCP5-HISTORIC: annualmax Historic standardized The annual maxima are quite similar for RCP.5 and RCP8.5, but both exhibit larger variance than the historical annual maxima. Ø Breivik et al (MET Norway) North Atlantic Wave Heights 71 6 September 18 1 / 1
16 Conclusions 1 Annual mean wave height appears to decrease toward the end of the century in the North Atlantic, and more so for RCP8.5 than for RCP.5 Upper percentiles decrease less, suggesting that the variance increases while the mean goes down 3 All models show increased wave heights in the Norwegian Sea due to receding winter ice cover Ø Breivik et al (MET Norway) North Atlantic Wave Heights 71 6 September / 1
17 Open questions 1 Are we moving toward a future wind and wave climate with higher variance but lower mean values in the extratropics? Can we continue to justify running climate GCMs without a wave model component? 3 Will the inclusion of a wave model modify the results appreciably? In particular, can the extremes be affected by an active wave model? References: Aarnes, O. J., M. Reistad, Ø. Breivik, E. Bitner-Gregersen, L. I. Eide, O. Gramstad, A. K. Magnusson, B. Natvig and E. Vanem, 17. Projected changes in significant wave height towards the end of the 1st century: Northeast Atlantic, J Geophys Res: Oceans, 1, pp , doi:1.1/16jc151 Aarnes, O. J., Ø. Breivik, and M. Reistad, 1: Wave Extremes in the Northeast Atlantic. J Climate, 5, , doi:1/bvbr7k Aarnes, O. J., S. Abdalla, J.-R. Bidlot, and Ø. Breivik, 15: Marine wind and wave height trends at different ERA-Interim forecast ranges. J Climate, 8, , doi:1.1175/jcli-d Breivik, Ø., O. J. Aarnes, J.-R. Bidlot, A. Carrasco, and Ø. Saetra, 13: Wave Extremes in the Northeast Atlantic from Ensemble Forecasts. J Climate, 6, , doi:1/mpf. Reistad, M., Ø. Breivik, H. Haakenstad, O. J. Aarnes, B. R. Furevik, and J.-R. Bidlot, 11: A high-resolution hindcast of wind and waves for the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, and the Barents Sea. J Geophys Res, 116, 18 pp, C5 19, doi:1/fmnrm Ø Breivik et al (MET Norway) North Atlantic Wave Heights 71 6 September 18 1 / 1
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