Index. r (correlation), 127 s and u, 51, 55 s (steps), 103 SF, 4 SLG, 3 SLOB, 11 TB, 3 u and s, 51, 55

Transcription

1 Index C, 43, 86, 170 n k AB, 1 AVG, 1 1B, 2B and 3B, 3 b:a notation, 16 BB, 4 BRA, 11, ERA, 126 H, 1 HBP, 4 HEQ, 176 HPS, 157 HR, 3 IPA, 157 OBP, 5 OPS, 6 p-value, 133 PA, 5 PB, 38 Pr, 18, Pr (D S), 70 Pr (F E), 73 q = 1 - p, 86, 113 r (correlation), 127 s and u, 51, 55 s (steps), 103 SF, 4 SLG, 3 SLOB, 11 TB, 3 u and s, 51, 55 A Aaron, Hank, lifetime atbats (AB), 6 Abramowitz, Alan, 154 AIDS example, Albert, Jim, 144, , 150, 165, 174, 182 Albright, Christian, 143, 146 All-Star Baseball, xii, xiii Anaheim Angels, 53 Angell, Roger, 1 At-bats (AB), 1 Atlanta Braves, 18, 24,

2 184 Index Average, 1 14, See also Batting average (AVG); Earned-runaverage (ERA) defined, 1, Average expected gain per bet, 30 Average salary, calculation of, B Barber, Red, 175 Baseball gambling, xv, 49 56, 61 Bases on balls (BB), 4 Basketball, 71, 82, 88, 90, Batter effectiveness, and AVG, SLG, OBP, 6 Batter s Run Average (BRA), 11, Batting average (AVG), 1 importance of, 2 3 slugging percentage (SLG) compared to, 4 Batting orders, Beane, Billy, Bell curve, 159 Benjamin, Art, 182 Berg, Moe, 175 Bernoulli, Jakob, 85 Bernoulli, Nikolaus, 102 Bernoulli trials, 85 86, 88 92, 94, 97, , 133, , 144, 150, 152 Berra, Yogi, 22, 94 Berry, Scott M., 148 Betting, See Gambling Betting strategies, 18, 55 56, 58 59, 101, 106 Betting system, 56 57, 61, 65 Bickel, J. Eric, Billings Mustangs, xi Binomial coefficient, 43, 170 Binomial theorem, Birnbaum, Phil, , 164 Blackjack, xv, 33, 176 Blau, Clifford, Bleiler, Steve, 182 Bonds, Barry, 4, 7 9, 91, 129, 148 Boston Red Sox, 130, 152, 155, 176 Boudreau, Lou, xii Bowling, 83, 148 Brooklyn Dodgers, 158, 177 Brooks, Harold, 161

3 Index 185 C Cancer example, Carson, Johnny, 81 Casinos, xv, 41, 49, 82, See also Gambling offshore, betting odds offered by, Catchers, 160, 164 Chance, 15 16, 18 Chicago Cubs, 18, 24, Chi-square test, 142, 145, 154 Clutch hitting, Cobb, Ty, 154 Combinations, 38, 43 Comly, Clem, 165 Conditional probability, 69 71, 73, 76 77, 96 98, 100 Conroy, Pat, v Cook, Earnshaw, 173 Cornish, Andrew, 155 Correlation, , 154, 164 linear, 127, 131 negative, properties of, D Damon, Johnny, 130 Data, paired, , Defensive spectrum, 163 Descriptive statistics, 123 DiamondMind Baseball, 151 DiMaggio, Joe, xii, 38, 125, , 151, 167 Dorsey-Palmateer, Reid, Double-or-nothing, Double-or-Nothing Story, , 106 E Earned-run-average (ERA), 126, 128, 145, 146 Epstein, Eddie, 2 Eugene Emeralds, xiv, xv Evans, Dwight, 145 Events, 19 23, 27 independent, 76 78, 84, 93, 120 Expectation, xv, 29 48, 50 52, 94, 114 F Failure, 83, 85, 92 93, 107, 112 Fair game, 17, Feller, Bob, xii Fiedler, Charles, 155 Florida Marlins, 141

4 186 Index Foss, Brian S., 155 Franklin, Benjamin, 69 Freiman, Michael, 151 G Galarraga, Andres, 148 Gambling: a:b and b:a odds, baseball, xv, betting strategies, 18, 55 56, 58 59, 101, 106 blackjack, xv, 33, 176 casinos, xv, 41, 49, 82 chance, 15 16, 18 house (casino), 31 lottery, xv, 33, 37 47, 105 roulette, xv, 31, 33, 51, 81 82, 85 87, , 104, , , sports, 33, 49, 60 Garelick, Barry, 182 Gates, Bill, 117 Gilovich, T., 150 Golf, 148 Goodwin, Doris Kearns, ix H Hanrahan, Tom, , 164 Helton, Todd, 129 Henzler, Jim, 157 Hit by a pitched ball (HBP), 4 Hits per strike (HPS), 157 Hitting proportion, 2 Hoban Effectiveness Quotient (HEQ), 176 Home-field advantage, 154 Hornsby, Rogers, 154 Horseshoes, 83, 148 House (casino), 31 Howell, James, 61 I Ichiro Suzuki, 9 11, See Suzuki, Ichiro Idaho Falls Russets, xi Independence, 69, 76 79, 82, 99 Independent events, 76 78, 84, 93, 120 Inferential statistics, Infinite sums, 109 Infinitely rich gambler, 117, Innate winning percentage, 160 J James, Bill, 7, 124, 157, 161, 163

5 Index 187 Japanese outfielders, 9 Jeter, Derek, batting average (AVG), Justice, David, batting average (AVG), K Karcher, Keith, 152 Keno, 33 Kiner, Ralph, xii Kittle, Hub, xi Krabbenschaft, Herm, 167 Kuhn, Bowie, 175 L Large Numbers, Law of, 41, 92 Larsen, Don, 15 Least regression line, 132, 145 Lee, Bill, 61 Length of World Series, 19 21, 34 37, 81, 94 96, 99, 171 Levitt, Dan, 162 Likelihood, 15 16, 18 Linear correlation, 127, 131 Loes, Billy, 29 Lopez, Javy, 146 Lotteries, xv, 33, 37 47, 105 and expectations, 33, M Maris, Roger, 147 Matsui, Hideki, 9 11 McDermott, Mickey, 38 McGwire, Mark, , 164 Mejdal, Sig, 162 Mirabelli, Doug, 130 Morris, Jim, 178 Musial, Stan, xii MVP voting, 165 N Negative correlation, Neven, Jeanie, 182 New York Giants, 177 New York Mets, 155 New York Yankees, vii, 15, 18, 29, 69, , 152, 154, 155, 176, 177 Newman, Paul, 101 Neyer, Rob, 2 Normalized, 159 O Oakland A s, 177 Odds, xv, 15 18, 23 25, 49 62, 64, 67, 81, 96, , 112, 114, 116

6 188 Index Odds (cont.) advantage of using, 18 defined, 15 disadvantage of using, 18 Odds to Probability, Offensive replacement level, 163 On-base average, use of term, 11 On-base percentage (OBP), 2, 5, 6, 130 On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS), 6 7 Osgood, Martha, 182 P Pacific Coast League, xiv Paired data, , Palmer, Pete, 7, 11, 124, 158 Pankin, Mark D., Pappas, Doug, 182 Payoffs/gains, and different outcomes, 33 Pioneer League, xi Pitcher s stuff, 159 Plate appearances (PA), 5 Platooning, 164 Povich, Shirley, 15 Powerball, Probability, of E and F, 21, 23, 27, 73, conditional, 69 71, 73, 76 77, 96 98, 100 to odds, 24 properties, Probability to Odds, xv, 23 25, 45 Pujols, Albert, 129 p-value, 133, , , 144, , , Q Quadratic formula, 121 R Regression line, , 145 Reynolds, Harold, 145 Ripken, Cal, 138, 161 Robinson, Jackie, xii Rodriguez, Alex, 138 Rose, Pete, 5 7, 49 Roulette, xv, 31, 33, 51, 81 82, 85 87, , 104, , , calculations of expectation, Ruane, Tom,

7 Index 189 Ruin problem, 102 Runs test, 144, 147, 152 Ruth, Babe, 1 4, 9, 125, 147 S SABR, , 158, 161, 167 Sacrifice fly (SF), 4 Salt Lake City Bees, xi xii Schlewitz, Dan, 151, 182 Schmidt, Mike, 147 Scully, Vin, 123 Seattle Mariners, xv, 53 Service charge, 50 52, 55 56, 59 60, 62 Significant statistically, , 139, , 155, 162 Simpson s paradox, SLOB, 11 Slugging average, use of term, 11 Slugging percentage (SLG), 3 Smith, Gary, 148 Smokers example, Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), , 158, 161, 167 Sommers, Paul M., 147, Sosa, Sammy, Sports gambling, 33, 49, 60, See also Gambling St. Louis Cardinals, x, xii, 23 Stability, 144 Statistically significant, , 139, , 155, 162 Statistics, 6 8, 18, descriptive, 123 inferential, Steinbrenner, George, 30, 69 Stolen base, xii, 10 11, Stopping strategy, 105, , 119, 122 Stotz, Dean, Streakiness, , , 165 Success, 83, 85, 92 93, 107, 112 Suzuki, Ichiro, 9 11, See Ichiro Suzuki System for betting, 56 57, 61, 65 T Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 67, 158 Thorn, John, 11, 124 Total number of bases (TB), 3

8 190 Index Trials: Bernoulli, 85 86, 88 92, 94, 97, , 133, , 144, 150, 152 Triandos, Gus, xi Tversky, A., 150 V Vallone, R., 150 Value of a game, 30 Vigorish, 33, 60 von Mises, Richard, 116 W Walks=bases on balls, 4 Wang, Hao, 182 Wild assumptions, Williams, Bernie, 139 Williams, Ted, xii, 6, 8, 125, 154, 156, 167, 176 Williamson, Patricia, Win shares, Wood, Rob, 160, 165 World Series, length of, 19 21, 34 37, 81, 94 96, 99, 171 Y Yastrzemski, Carl, 154 Young, Dick, 175