Merced County Association of Governments: Voter Survey

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1 Merced County Association of Governments: Voter Survey Page 1

2 Overview and Research Objectives Merced County Association of Governments commissioned Godbe Research to conduct a survey of local voters with the following research objectives: Determine issues of importance in the County; Assess potential voter support for a sales tax measure for local transportation improvements with funding that cannot be taken by the State; Prioritize projects and programs to be funded with the proceeds; Test the influence of supporting and opposing arguments on potential voter support; Identify the rate and duration at which voters will support the measure; and Identify any differences in voter support due to demographic and/or voter behavioral characteristics. Page 2

3 Methodology Overview Data Collection Universe Telephone and Internet Interviewing 61,771 likely November 2016 voters in Merced County Fielding Dates November 10 through November 24, 2015 Interview Length 20 minutes Sample Size 853 Margin of Error ± 3.33% The data have been weighted to reflect the actual population characteristics of likely voters in Merced County in terms of their gender, age, and political party type. Page 3

4 Key Findings Page 4

Reducing traffic congestion Improving public transit 1.47 1.67 1.88 2.11 2.00 2.32 2.

5 Q1. Issues of Importance (n=853) Improving economy & increasing local job opportunities 2.47 Improving the quality of public education Funding local services, such as police, fire and parks Fixing local streets and roads Protecting the environment Preventing local tax increases Reducing traffic congestion Improving public transit Sample A Sample B Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 T Somewhat Very Important Important Not at All Important Extremely Important Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes. For the exact wording, please see Appendix D. The responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: Extremely Important = +3, Very Important = +2, Somewhat Important = +1, and Not at all Important = 0. Page 5

6 Q2. Uninformed Support for Sales Tax (n=853) Definitely No 16.2% Not sure [DK/NA] 3.8% Probably No 8.5% Total Support 71.5% Definitely Yes 43.0% Probably Yes 28.4% To provide funding for local transportation improvements including: fixing potholes and maintaining local roads; reducing traffic congestion on highways and local roads; extending commuter rail into Merced County; providing seniors and disabled with mobility options; and improving pedestrian and bike travel; shall the Merced County Transportation Authority enact a ½ cent sales tax, providing $15 million dollars annually for transportation projects for 30 years, that cannot be taken by the State, with citizens oversight, and requiring all money to be spent entirely in Merced County? Page 6

7 Q2. Uninformed Support for Sales Tax City Comparisons City Total Atwater Dos Palos Gustine Livingston Los Banos Merced Unincorporated Total Definitely Yes % 43.6% 52.1% 52.2% 40.9% 47.1% 45.4% 38.0% Probably Yes % 24.1% 33.0% 25.8% 33.8% 20.0% 33.3% 27.6% Probably No % 3.8% 3.4% 4.3% 12.1% 8.9% 5.9% 12.3% Definitely No % 22.7% 9.1% 17.7% 6.2% 19.4% 13.1% 17.7% Not sure [DK/NA] % 5.8% 2.4%.0% 7.0% 4.6% 2.3% 4.3% Page 7

Q3. Features of the Measure (n=853) Repair potholes and maintain major streets and roads Repair potholes on neighborhood streets Provide Safe Routes to Schools Synchronize signals on major streets to

Highway 59 in Merced Improve pedestrian and bike safety Maintain and improve pedestrian and bike paths Complete the Campus Parkway in Merced Set-aside funds to help low income communities Provide

8 Q3. Features of the Measure (n=853) Repair potholes and maintain major streets and roads Repair potholes on neighborhood streets Provide Safe Routes to Schools Synchronize signals on major streets to reduce back-ups Improve safety, reduce congestion on local highways Reduce congestion on Highway 99 Widen Highway 99 through Merced and Atwater Widen Highway 59 from Merced to Highway 152 Widen Highway 59 in Merced Improve pedestrian and bike safety Maintain and improve pedestrian and bike paths Complete the Campus Parkway in Merced Set-aside funds to help low income communities Provide more local bus service Complete the Atwater-Merced Expressway Provide free bus service throughout the county Bring commuter rail to Merced County Incentives for building transit-friendly development Construct the Highway 152 Bypass around Los Banos Realign Highway 165 around Hilmar Provide cash incentives for vanpooling and carpooling Sample A Sample B Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 T Somewhat Somewhat Less Likely More Likely Much Less Likely Much More Likely Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: Much More Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, No Effect = 0, Somewhat Less Likely = -1, and Much Less Likely = -2. Page 8

9 Q3. Features of the Measure City Comparisons City Total Atwater Dos Palos Gustine Livingston Los Banos Merced Unincorporated 3A. Provide Safe Routes to Schools B. Reduce congestion on Highway C. Synchronize traffic signals on major streets to reduce back-ups D. Improve safety and reduce traffic congestion on local highways E. Bring commuter rail to Merced County such as the Altamont Corridor Express, also known as the ACE Train 3F. Construct the Highway 152 Bypass around Los Banos G. Complete the Atwater-Merced Expressway connecting Highway 99 to Castle Airport H. Complete the Campus Parkway in Merced connecting to UC Merced I. Widen Highway 99 through Merced and Atwater J. Widen Highway 59 in Merced K. Widen Highway 59 from Merced to Highway L. Realign Highway 165 around Hilmar M. Provide cash incentives for vanpooling and carpooling N. Provide incentives for building transitfriendly development projects Page 9

10 Q3. Features of the Measure Continued City Comparisons Total Atwater Dos Palos Gustine Livingston Los Banos Merced Unincorporated 3O. Set-aside funds to help low income communities with transportation improvements P. Repair potholes and maintain major streets and roads Q. Provide more local bus service R. Improve pedestrian and bike safety S. Repair potholes on neighborhood streets T. Provide free bus service throughout the county U. Maintain and improve pedestrian and bike paths City Page 10

Q4. Influence of Supporting Statements (n=853) All $ dedicated to street/transportation improvements 1.38 Every will benefit local transportation projects/programs 1.

11 Q4. Influence of Supporting Statements (n=853) All $ dedicated to street/transportation improvements 1.38 Every will benefit local transportation projects/programs 1.37 Enhance safety by improving bike/ped routes to schools 1.34 Allow Merced Co to get $millions in Fed/State matching $ 1.33 Our local streets and roads are falling apart Safeguards to ensure accountability, indep oversight Local road repairs benefit everyone Tier 1 Insure that local priorities are decided locally 1.23 Reduce current backlog of deferred local street repairs 1.22 Reduce traffic congestion on roadways in Merced Co 1.22 Annual audits and public reporting for all expenditures 1.22 Now is time to invest in repairing our streets and roads 1.21 Reduce traffic congestion on local roads Reduce traffic congestion on Highway 99 Reduce air pollution Guarantee a share for the West side of the county Sample A Sample B Tier 2 T No Effect Somewhat Much More More Likely Likely Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: Much More Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, and No Effect = 0. Page 11

12 Q4. Influence of Supporting Statements City Comparisons Total Atwater Dos Palos Gustine Livingston Los Banos Merced Unincorporated 4A. The measure would help reduce the current backlog of deferred local street and road repairs B. Our local streets and roads are falling apart, this measure will help stop the deterioration C. The measure will allow Merced County to get millions of dollars in Federal and State matching funds. Without approval of this measure that money will go to other counties 4D. Every penny from this measure will benefit local transportation projects and programs, and cannot be taken by the State 4E. All of the money from the measure would be dedicated to street, road and transportation improvements and stay in Merced County 4F. Now is the time to invest in repairing our streets and roads, if we wait it will just cost more in the future 4G. The measure would help reduce traffic congestion on local roads H. There will be annual audits and public reporting requirements for all expenditures I. The measure will help reduce air pollution J. Safeguards to ensure accountability, including independent oversight and annual audits, will ensure that the money will be spent properly City Page 12

13 Q4. Influence of Supporting Statements Continued City Comparisons Total Atwater Dos Palos Gustine Livingston Los Banos Merced Unincorporated 4K. Local road repairs benefit everyone - local streets and roads benefit drivers, bicyclists, walkers, buses, seniors, kids, and neighbors L. The measure will reduce traffic congestion on 1.12 Highway M. The measure will guarantee a share for the West side of the county, including Dos Palos, Gustine, and Los Banos 4N. The measure will insure that local priorities are decided locally O. The measure will enhance safety by improving bike and pedestrian routes to schools, installing traffic signals at dangerous intersections, synchronizing traffic and pedestrian signals, and improving emergency response times 4P. The measure would help reduce traffic congestion on roadways in Merced County, reducing critical emergency response times City Page 13

Q5. Potential Opposition Statements (n=853) We already pay a large gas tax supposed to go toward fixing roads If govt agencies managed budgets more efficiently, not pay more.88 1.

76 Govt should spend existing funds on local streets and roads There is already enough taxpayer $ for transportation projects.67.

14 Q5. Potential Opposition Statements (n=853) We already pay a large gas tax supposed to go toward fixing roads If govt agencies managed budgets more efficiently, not pay more Tier 1 Will build new roads that will lead to more development of farmland.76 Govt should spend existing funds on local streets and roads There is already enough taxpayer $ for transportation projects Tier 2 They've been building highways throughout county in last 3 years No Effect Somewhat Much More More Likely Likely Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: Much More Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, and No Effect = 0. Page 14

reducing traffic congestion on highways and local roads; extending commuter rail into Merced County; providing seniors and disabled with mobility options; and improving pedestrian and bike travel;

15 Q6. Informed Support (n=853) Final Test 43.2% Initial Test 43.0% 71.0% 71.4% 27.8% 8.9% 16.1% 4.0% 28.4% 8.5% 16.2% 3.8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA To provide funding for local transportation improvements including: fixing potholes and maintaining local roads; reducing traffic congestion on highways and local roads; extending commuter rail into Merced County; providing seniors and disabled with mobility options; and improving pedestrian and bike travel; shall the Merced County Transportation Authority enact a ½ cent sales tax, providing $15 million dollars annually for transportation projects for 30 years, that cannot be taken by the State, with citizens oversight, and requiring all money to be spent entirely in Merced County? Page 15

16 Q6. Informed Support City Comparisons City Total Atwater Dos Palos Gustine Livingston Los Banos Merced Unincorporated Total Definitely Yes % 44.3% 37.0% 52.2% 56.0% 43.9% 44.5% 39.1% Probably Yes % 24.9% 43.4% 22.2% 29.6% 21.4% 30.0% 28.6% Probably No % 9.3% 12.5% 1.4% 1.4% 9.6% 8.9% 9.9% Definitely No % 19.9%.0% 24.2% 10.6% 19.1% 11.9% 18.9% Not sure [DK/NA] % 1.6% 7.1%.0% 2.4% 6.0% 4.7% 3.4% Page 16

17 Q7. Support for Alternative ½ Cent Sales Tax / 20 Year Duration (n=853) Definitely No 15.7% Definitely Yes 46.8% INSTEAD of lasting for 30 years, if the measure to provide funding for local transportation improvements lasted for 20 years, would you vote yes or no on this measure if the election were held today? Not sure [DK/NA] 5.4% Probably No 9.1% Total Support 69.7% Probably Yes 22.9% Page 17

4% Extending ACE into Merced County 6.8% Providing seniors with mobility options 6.

18 Q8. Importance of Transportation Projects (n=853) Fixing potholes and maintaining local roads 47.6% Reducing traffic congestion on hwys and local roads 22.4% Extending ACE into Merced County 6.8% Providing seniors with mobility options 6.4% Improving pedestrian and bike travel 5.5% Other 6.7% Not sure [DK/NA] 4.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Page 18

19 Q9. Support for Alternative Transportation & Law Enforcement 1 Cent Sales Tax (n=853) Definitely No 23.9% Not sure [DK/NA] 4.2% Probably No 14.5% Total Support 57.4% Definitely Yes 32.0% Probably Yes 25.4% To provide funding for local transportation improvements and law enforcement including: fixing potholes and maintaining local roads; reducing traffic congestion on highways and local roads; extending commuter rail into Merced County; enhance city and county crime fighting; and improving pedestrian and bike travel; shall Merced County enact a 1 cent sales tax, providing $30 million dollars annually for 30 years, that cannot be taken by the State, with citizens oversight, and requiring all money to be spent entirely in Merced County? Page 19

20 Q10. Support for Alternative Transportation & Law Enforcement 3/4 Cent Sales Tax (n=853) Definitely No 23.1% Definitely Yes 36.2% Instead of the transportation and law enforcement measure just described, there could be a similar measure but instead of a 1 cent sales tax, the measure would fund the same services by raising the sales tax by ¾ cent. Not sure [DK/NA] 5.3% Probably Yes 21.8% Probably No 13.6% Total Support 58.0% Page 20

21 Summary & Recommendations The survey revealed a very solid base of voter support for a transportation sales tax measure. Support for the measure in the November 2016 election was 71.4% on the uninformed test and 71.0% on the informed test for November Top features of the measure (listed below in priority order) all received more that 2/3rds support countywide. Repair potholes and maintain major streets and roads Repair potholes on neighborhood streets Provide Safe Routes to Schools Synchronize traffic signals on major streets to reduce back-ups Improve safety and reduce traffic congestion on local highways Top tier positive statements (listed below in priority order) all received more that 2/3rds support countywide. All of the money from the measure would be dedicated to street, road and transportation improvements and stay in Merced County Every penny from this measure will benefit local transportation projects and programs, and cannot be taken by the State The measure will enhance safety by improving bike and pedestrian routes to schools, installing traffic signals at dangerous intersections, synchronizing traffic and pedestrian signals, and improving emergency response times The measure will allow Merced County to get millions of dollars in Federal and State matching funds. Without approval of this measure that money will go to other counties Our local streets and roads are falling apart, this measure will help stop the deterioration Page 21

22 Summary & Recommendations Safeguards to ensure accountability, including independent oversight and annual audits, will ensure that the money will be spent properly Local road repairs benefit everyone - local streets and roads benefit drivers, bicyclists, walkers, buses, seniors, kids, and neighbors The measure will insure that local priorities are decided locally The measure would help reduce the current backlog of deferred local street and road repairs The measure would help reduce traffic congestion on roadways in Merced County, reducing critical emergency response times There will be annual audits and public reporting requirements for all expenditures Now is the time to invest in repairing our streets and roads, if we wait it will just cost more in the future Given the survey findings, Godbe Research recommends that the Merced County Association of Governments continue the process of preparing for a November 2016 transportation sales tax measure election. Page 22

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