Validating RAP-ORGANON Preliminary Findings

Transcription

1 Preliminary Findings Andrew Bluhm Under the current climatic changes the growth and survival of red alder and Douglas-fir will likely be affected; however, the long term consequences are still largely unknown. Increased temperatures Summer drought Wildfires Tree growth The objective of this study is to: Investigate the effects of climatic variables on the growth of red alder and Douglas-fir throughout a broad latitudinal gradient in the PNW. Then, in order to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on tree growth the developed models were then used to project the growth of red alder and Douglas-fir using three future climate scenarios.

2 ORGANON Modeling Dataset Summary WeyCo HSC Total Number of Location Total Number of Plots Total Number of Trees 48,453 56,517 Number of Plot for the following Stand Age: Number of Plot for the following MST:

3 Dominant height growth equations Maximum/Largest crown width Crown profile Height-diameter Height-to-crown-base Diameter growth rate Height growth rate Mortality rate Crown Recession Size-Density

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5 Evaluation of RAP-ORGANON for Making Stand-Level Predictions Attribute Periodic Annual Residuals ( Minus Actual) Average Average as Percent of Actual R a 2 Without Bias R a 2 With Bias Net Basal Area Increment Mortality Survival Net Total Stem Cubic Foot Volume Increment Gross Basal Area Increment Gross Total Stem Cubic Foot Volume Increment

6 Main Objective: Test to see how well RAP-ORGANON predicts individual plot data. Compare plot data grown with ORGANON to the actual, collected data. Methods For three productive site across the geographical range: Humphrey Hill- 23 years old Ryderwood- 18 years old Sitkum- 18 years old Grow plot data with ORGANON: Control plots: 1 st measurement (age 4) Thinned plots: 525tpa 1 st thin and 2 nd thin: immediate post thin data Graphically compare 5 variables: TPA, QMDBH, H4, CR, RD Percent Bias: (-)/ x 1

7 HSC Site #421-Humphrey Hill: Comparison of 23 year Trees Per Acre values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data -3.1% 3.4% 9.3% 12.1% 11tpa 25tpa 71tpa 134tpa

8 HSC Site #421-Humphrey Hill: Comparison of 23 year Trees Per Acre values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data -3.1% 3.4% 9.3% 12.1% 11tpa 25tpa 71tpa 134tpa

9 HSC Site #421-Humphrey Hill: Comparison of 23 year Trees Per Acre values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data -3.1% 3.4% 9.3% 12.1% 11tpa 25tpa 71tpa 134tpa

10 HSC Site #421-Humphrey Hill: Comparison of 23 year Trees Per Acre values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data -3.1% 3.4% 9.3% 12.1% 11tpa 25tpa 71tpa 134tpa Planting Density/Thinning Treatment

11 HSC Site #421-Humphrey Hill: Comparison of 23 year Trees Per Acre values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data -3.1% 3.4% 9.3% 12.1% 11tpa 25tpa 71tpa 134tpa Planting Density/Thinning Treatment

12 HSC Site #421-Humphrey Hill: Comparison of 23 year Quadratic Mean DBH values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data % % 1.6% 1 QMDBH (in) % 8 6 QMDBH (in) tpa 25tpa 71tpa 134tpa

13 HSC Site #421-Humphrey Hill: Comparison of 23 year Height of the 4 largest TPA values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data 8-2.2% 1.6% -3.% -4.6% H4 (ft) 4 4 H4 (ft) tpa 25tpa 71tpa 134tpa

14 1..8 HSC Site #421-Humphrey Hill: Comparison of 23 year Crown Ratio values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data 15.5% 1..8 Crown Ratio % -13.7% -22.5%.6.4 Crown Ratio tpa 25tpa 71tpa 134tpa.

15 HSC Site #421-Humphrey Hill: Comparison of 23 year Relative Density values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data % 1.6% Relative Density % 4.5%.6.4 Relative Density tpa 25tpa 71tpa 134tpa.

16 HSC Site #421-Humphrey Hill: Comparison of 23 year Trees Per Acre values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data (Control), and immediate post-thin data (thinned plots) -3.1% 23.1% 48.1% 71tpa Age 5 to 245tpa Age 7 to 25tpa

17 HSC Site #421-Humphrey Hill: Comparison of 23 year Quadratic Mean DBH values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data (Control), and immediate post-thin data (thinned plots) % -1.1% 12 1 QMDBH (in) % 8 6 QMDBH (in) tpa Age 5 to 245tpa Age 7 to 25tpa

18 HSC Site #421-Humphrey Hill: Comparison of 23 year Height of the 4 largest TPA values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data (Control), and immediate post-thin data (thinned plots) 8-3.% -14.1% % 6 6 H4 (ft) 4 4 H4 (ft) tpa Age 5 to 245tpa Age 7 to 25tpa

19 1..8 HSC Site #421-Humphrey Hill: Comparison of 23 year Crown Ratio values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data (Control), and immediate post-thin data (thinned plots) 1..8 Crown Ratio % -.2% -63.7%.6.4 Crown Ratio tpa Age 5 to 245tpa Age 7 to 25tpa.

20 1. HSC Site #421-Humphrey Hill: Comparison of 23 year Relative Density values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data (Control), and immediate post-thin data (thinned plots) % Relative Density % 42.2%.6.4 Relative Density tpa Age 5 to 245tpa Age 7 to 25tpa.

21 Treatment Control Thin 11tpa 25tpa 71tpa 134tpa Age 5 Age 7 TPA QMDBH + - H4 + CR RD + - +

22 Treatment Control Thin 11tpa 25tpa 71tpa 134tpa Age 5 Age 7 TPA QMDBH + - H4 + CR RD tpa Control: Heavy cherry ingrowth Thin at Age 7: Disease?

23 HSC Site #421- Humphrey Hill (GYN). Planted 1989 N 1 1tpa Control tpa 1 st Thin 1tpa 2 nd Thin 525tpa Control 1tpa 1 st Thin 1 23tpa Control 9 525tpa 2 nd Thin 8 1tpa Control 7 23tpa Prune 6 525tpa 3 rd Thin Trails flagged in pink Park

24 HSC Site #322-Ryderwood: Comparison of 18 year Trees Per Acre values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data HSC Site #323-Sitkum: Comparison of 18 year Trees Per Acre values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data -25.4% -34.2% -5.1% 3.8% -12.8% -2.2% -1.1% -14.% 9tpa 18tpa 62tpa 98tpa 19tpa 32tpa 61tpa 11tpa

25 HSC Site #322-Ryderwood: Comparison of 18 year Quadratic Mean DBH values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data HSC Site #323-Sitkum: Comparison of 18 year Quadratic Mean DBH values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data QMDBH (in) % 6.4% 11.5% 9.5% QMDBH (in) QMDBH (in) % 1.4% -3.7% 1.2% QMDBH (in) tpa 18tpa 62tpa 98tpa 19tpa 32tpa 61tpa 11tpa

26 HSC Site #322-Ryderwood: Comparison of 18 year Height of the 4 largest TPA values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data HSC Site #323-Sitkum: Comparison of 18 year Height of the 4 largest TPA values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data 8 6.5% -1.% 12.9% 12.% % 11.5% 11.5% -4.5% H4 (ft) 4 4 H4 (ft) H4 (ft) 4 4 H4 (ft) tpa 18tpa 62tpa 98tpa 19tpa 32tpa 61tpa 11tpa

27 HSC Site #322-Ryderwood: Comparison of 18 year Crown Ratio values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data HSC Site #323-Sitkum: Comparison of 18 year Crown Ratio values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data % Crown Ratio % -16.2% -11.4%.6.4 Crown Ratio Crown Ratio % 22.3% 18.6% 22.6%.6.4 Crown Ratio tpa 18tpa 62tpa 98tpa.. 19tpa 32tpa 61tpa 11tpa.

28 HSC Site #322-Ryderwood: Comparison of 18 year Relative Density values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data HSC Site #323-Sitkum: Comparison of 18 year Relative Density values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data Relative Density %.% 17.4% 14.5% Relative Density Relative Density % -17.8% -11.4% -13.6% Relative Density tpa 18tpa 62tpa 98tpa.. 19tpa 32tpa 61tpa 11tpa.

29 HSC Site #322-Ryderwood: Comparison of 18 year Trees Per Acre values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data (Control), and immediate post-thin data (thinned plots) HSC Site #323-Sitkum: Comparison of 18 year Trees Per Acre values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data (Control), and immediate post-thin data (thinned plots) -34.2% 3.8% -.8% 2.1% 1.7%.5% 62tpa Age 7 to 245tpa Age 1 to 235tpa 61tpa Age 7 to 235tpa Age 1 to 225tpa

30 HSC Site #322-Ryderwood: Comparison of 18 year Quadratic Mean DBH values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data (Control), and immediate post-thin data (thinned plots) HSC Site #323- Sitkum: Comparison of 18 year Quadratic Mean DBH values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data (Control), and immediate post-thin data (thinned plots) QMDBH (in) % -11.6% -5.9% QMDBH (in) QMDBH (in) % -19.5% -8.7% QMDBH (in) tpa Age 7 to 245tpa Age 1 to 235tpa 61tpa Age 7 to 235tpa Age 1 to 225tpa

31 HSC Site #322-Ryderwood: Comparison of 18 year Height of the 4 largest TPA values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data (Control), and immediate post-thin data (thinned plots) HSC Site #323- Sitkum: Comparison of 18 year Height of the 4 largest TPA values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data (Control), and immediate post-thin data (thinned plots) % -12.1% 1.9% % -16.1% -1.6% H4 (ft) 4 4 H4 (ft) H4 (ft) 4 4 H4 (ft) tpa Age 7 to 245tpa Age 1 to 235tpa 61tpa Age 7 to 235tpa Age 1 to 225tpa

32 1. HSC Site #322-Ryderwood: Comparison of 18 year Crown Ratio values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data (Control), and immediate post-thin data (thinned plots) HSC Site #323-Sitkum: Comparison of 18 year Crown Ratio values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data (Control), and immediate post-thin data (thinned plots) Crown Ratio %.4% -25.3%.6.4 Crown Ratio Crown Ratio % 12.9% 1.2%.6.4 Crown Ratio tpa Age 7 to 245tpa Age 1 to 235tpa.. 61tpa Age 7 to 235tpa Age 1 to 225tpa.

33 1. HSC Site #322-Ryderwood: Comparison of 18 year Relative Density values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data (Control), and immediate post-thin data (thinned plots) HSC Site #323-Sitkum: Comparison of 18 year Relative Density values were run in RAP-ORGANON using 4 year old data (Control), and immediate post-thin data (thinned plots) 1..8.% Relative Density % -16.7%.6.4 Relative Density Relative Density % -41.7% -25.7%.6.4 Relative Density tpa Age 7 to 245tpa Age 1 to 235tpa.. 61tpa Age 7 to 235tpa Age 1 to 225tpa.

34 Treatment Control Thin 11tpa 25tpa 71tpa 134tpa Age 5 Age 7 TPA QMDBH - H4 + - CR + + RD

35 Treatment Control Thin 11tpa 25tpa 71tpa 134tpa Age 5 Age 7 TPA QMDBH - H4 + - CR + + RD TPA: Mortality Equation RD: Mortality plus QMDBH? Thin Age 5: Microsite

36 Comparing Site Index Estimation Procedures SI2=(SI5^1.5)/8

37 Comparing Site Index Estimation Procedures HSC Site #421-Humphrey Hill: Comparison of predicted site index from Harrington (1986- converted to a 2 year base) with observed site index (Weiskittel, et al 9) using 23 year old data % 5.1% 5.9% 4.4% 17.4% 2.5% 1 8 Site Index (2 year base) Site Index (2 year base)

38 Comparing Site Index Estimation Procedures HSC Site #322-Ryderwood: Comparison of predicted site index from Harrington (1986- converted to a 2 year base) with observed site index (Weiskittel, et al 9) using 18 year old data Site Index (2 year base) % -5.8% -15.4% -.8% 16.1% 3.1% Site Index (2 year base)

39 Comparing Site Index Estimation Procedures HSC Site #323-Sitkum: Comparison of predicted site index from Harrington (1986- converted to a 2 year base) with observed site index (Weiskittel, et al 9) using 18 year old data Site Index (2 year base) % -.4% -2.3% 5.3% 23.% 1.1% Site Index (2 year base)