Beer Industry Update January 2019

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1 Beer Industry Update January 2019 Lester Jones, Chief Economist National Beer Wholesalers Association

2 # of Months June 2009 to December 2018 Length of Economic Expansions: Current vs. Previous Six Longest 120 March 1991 to March Feb 1961 to Dec Nov 1982 to July Nov 2001 to Dec March 1975 to Jan Oct 1949 to July 1953

3 What will kill this expansion? Most likely, high interest rates as Fed responded to rising inflation. Just like the late 1950s, late 1960s, late 1980s. Energy/Oil shock inflation In 1974 caused a recession as higher prices eroded purchasing power. Collapse of dot.com investment boom of late 1990s, together with stock market crash. Collapse of housing and excess leverage that led up to financial crisis.

4 Service Employment 135, , , , , , ,000 Total U.S. Goods Producing vs Service Providing BLS Employment: Jan 2008 to Dec 2018 For now the country has historically low unemployment rates, consistently adding new jobs, and experiencing wage growth across broader categories even in goods producing sectors blue collar 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 Goods Producing Employment 100,000 1/1/2008 4/1/2008 7/1/ /1/2008 1/1/2009 4/1/2009 7/1/ /1/2009 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/ /1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/ /1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/ /1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/ /1/2013 1/1/2014 4/1/2014 7/1/ /1/2014 1/1/2015 4/1/2015 7/1/ /1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016 7/1/ /1/2016 1/1/2017 4/1/2017 7/1/ /1/2017 1/1/2018 4/1/2018 7/1/ /1/ ,000 Service Employment Good Producing Employment

5 U.S Labor Force Participation Rates Who is Working? Men Women Source: U.S. BLS: Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

6 160 Differences Between Genders Alcohol Past 30 Days 140 Index Base = Craft Beer Import Beer Light Beer Liquor Cider FMB Wine Male Female Source: NBWA and Scarborough USA Release 1

7 US Demographics Legal Drinking Age Adults (21+ / LDA) 245 Total Legal Drinking Age Adults 74.0% LDA Share of Total Population % % Millions % 72.0% % % % Source: Compiled by NBWA from U.S. Census Bureau 2018 US Fertility Rates Have Plummeted Into Uncharted Territory babies were born in 2017 for every 1,000 women of 'childbearing' age (15-44) a low not seen in the US since officials began charting.

8 5,000,000 U.S. Population by Age ,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 Fewer new drinkers each year 40 is the most irrelevant age? Two generations at formidable transition points in their lives 3 out of 4 people are AGE Source: U.S. Census and NBWA 2017.

9 18.5% Hispanic Share of U.S. Census Population 2010 to % 17.5% 17.0% 16.5% 16.0% 15.5%

10 160 Hispanic Preferences Alcohol Past 30 Days Index Base = Source: NBWA and Scarborough USA Release 1 Imports Light Beer FMB Hard Liquor Wine Domestic Regular Hispanic Ethnicty Cider Craft

11 Imports and Mexico Share of Volume 1990 to % Imports Share of Total Industry (17.7% of Total Industry 2018) 80% Mexico Share of Total Imports (70% of all Imports 2018) 18% 16% 14% 12% 70% 60% 50% 10% 40% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% % 20% 10% 0% Source: U.S. Commerce and NBWA.

12 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Count of Brewers and Craft Share of Volume 2000 to 2018 Count of Breweries Count of Breweries 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Craft Share Craft Share Source: U.S. TTB and NBWA.

13 Beer Segment Shares Growing High-End Beyond 40 Share Segment Share of Total Volumes High End (Craft/Imports/FMB/Cider) Premium Sub Premium/Malt-Liquor Source: Beer Marketers Insights, 2018.

14 Total U.S. Ethanol Per Capita 2010 to Gallons Per LDA Beer Wine Spirits Source: Compiled by NBWA from TTB, Discus and BIG, 2018 (2017 wine volumes estimated by NBWA)

15 Total U.S. Ethanol Per Capita 2010 to 2017 Better economic times = a little bit of incremental consumption Gallons Per LDA Beer Wine Spirits Source: Compiled by NBWA from TTB, Discus and BIG, 2018 (2017 wine volumes estimated by NBWA)

16 125.0 Alcohol Beverage Inflation BLS at Home (Off Premise) Consumer Price Index Jan 2008 to Nov Index Base 100 at /1/2008 4/1/2008 7/1/ /1/2008 1/1/2009 4/1/2009 7/1/ /1/2009 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/ /1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/ /1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/ /1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/ /1/2013 1/1/2014 4/1/2014 7/1/ /1/2014 1/1/2015 4/1/2015 7/1/ /1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016 7/1/ /1/2016 1/1/2017 4/1/2017 7/1/ /1/2017 1/1/2018 4/1/2018 7/1/ /1/2018 Beer CPI

17 125.0 Alcohol Beverage Inflation BLS at Home (Off Premise) Consumer Price Index Jan 2008 to Nov 2018 Index Base 100 at /1/2008 4/1/2008 7/1/ /1/2008 1/1/2009 4/1/2009 7/1/ /1/2009 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/ /1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/ /1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/ /1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/ /1/2013 1/1/2014 4/1/2014 7/1/ /1/2014 1/1/2015 4/1/2015 7/1/ /1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016 7/1/ /1/2016 1/1/2017 4/1/2017 7/1/ /1/2017 1/1/2018 4/1/2018 7/1/ /1/2018 Beer Liquor Wine

18 Index Gap between CPI over Time Alcohol Beverage Inflation Gap for Beer/Wine and Beer/Liquor BLS at Home (Off Premise) Consumer Price Index Sept 2018 Trend in Beer/Liqour CPI Gap Trend in Beer/Wine CPI Gap 1/1/2008 3/1/2008 5/1/2008 7/1/2008 9/1/ /1/2008 1/1/2009 3/1/2009 5/1/2009 7/1/2009 9/1/ /1/2009 1/1/2010 3/1/2010 5/1/2010 7/1/2010 9/1/ /1/2010 1/1/2011 3/1/2011 5/1/2011 7/1/2011 9/1/ /1/2011 1/1/2012 3/1/2012 5/1/2012 7/1/2012 9/1/ /1/2012 1/1/2013 3/1/2013 5/1/2013 7/1/2013 9/1/ /1/2013 1/1/2014 3/1/2014 5/1/2014 7/1/2014 9/1/ /1/2014 1/1/2015 3/1/2015 5/1/2015 7/1/2015 9/1/ /1/2015 1/1/2016 3/1/2016 5/1/2016 7/1/2016 9/1/ /1/2016 1/1/2017 3/1/2017 5/1/2017 7/1/2017 9/1/ /1/2017 1/1/2018 3/1/2018 5/1/2018

19 Growth in ABV for Beer and Liquor 2010 vs 2017 Average Weighted ABV Beer Average Weighted ABV Liquor

20 Source: NBWA industry Affairs, 2018 ABV by Beer Segment % 6.5% 6.5% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 5.4% 5.0% 5.0% 4.7% 4.2% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% FMB Malt Craft Other Regular Import Light

21 IRI Scan: Total US: Multi Outlet + Conv 12/30/2018 Volume Sales Change vs YA % Change vs YA BEER 1,469,082,136-3,729, % ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV 696,817,906-15,263, % MILLERCOORS BREWING 368,149,746-11,851, % CONSTELLATION BRANDS 142,348,482 15,150, % HEINEKEN USA INC 50,153,414-3,042, % BOSTON BEER CO 28,561,186 4,434, % MARK ANTHONY BRANDS INC 22,497,335 4,444, % PABST BREWING CO 28,928,122-1,555, % DIAGEO BEER COMPANY USA 13,735,058 1,273, % D G YUENGLING & SON INC 16,722, , % SIERRA NEVADA BREWING CO 7,171,843 83, % FIFCO USA 11,132, , % NEW BELGIUM BREWING COMPANY 5,525, , % THE LAGUNITAS BREWING COMPANY 4,748,144 74, % PHUSION PROJECTS INC 4,543, , % THE GAMBRINUS COMPANY 4,098, , % CRAFT BREW ALLIANCE INC 3,587, , % FOUNDERS BREWING CO 3,387, , % STONE BREWING CO. 1,753, , % BELLS BREWERY INC 1,981,682 71, % CANARCHY CRAFT BREWERY COLLECTIVE 1,794, , % FIRESTONE WALKER BREWING COMPANY 2,049, , % DESCHUTES BREWERY 1,748, , % SWEETWATER BREWING COMPANY, LLC 1,866,343 24, % ARTISANAL BREWING VENTURES 1,076, , % DOGFISH HEAD CRAFT BREWERY 951,349 99, %

22 14.0% IRI Beer Segments Growth CY Ending 12/30/ % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% DOM SUPER PREM FLAV MALT BEV IMPORT CRAFT DOM SUB- PREMIUM NON- ALCOHOLIC DOM PREMIUM

23 Access to Alcohol is Expanding! Fast Food Bed, Bath and Beyond Nordstrom's Whole Foods Barbers and Salons Taprooms Movie Theaters Laundromats

24 Even at The Library

25 Total U.S. Retail Establishments Selling Alcohol 2008 to , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Source: TDLinx Account Tracker Report: Beer, Wine or Spirit Selling Accounts, 2018.

26 Even as Retail Expands in Virtual Space The Evolution of the Wine Club Amazon Drizly Minibar Klink Saucey Hopsy Total Wine Brick and mortar

27 U.S. BLS: Establishment Counts 47,000 As New Retail and E-Commerce Expands Traditional Bars and Taverns Close? 46,000 Count of Establishments 45,000 44,000 43,000 42,000 41,000 40, Number of Establishments in Private NAICS Drinking places, alcoholic beverages for All establishment sizes in U.S. TOTAL

28 20,000 Growth in Alcohol Beverage Wholesalers 2010 to ,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Source: U.S. TTB and U.S. BLS/CQEW, 2018

29 Source: NBWA and TTB, September TTB Permitted Brewery Count 9,865 Permits as of Sept 2018 State Count State Count State Count Alabama 54 Kentucky 83 North Dakota 26 Alaska 50 Louisiana 48 Ohio 363 Arizona 143 Maine 160 Oklahoma 53 Arkansas 52 Maryland 136 Oregon 376 California 1,204 Massachusetts 225 Pennsylvania 457 Colorado 492 Michigan 500 Rhode Island 33 Connecticut 120 Minnesota 236 South Carolina 92 Delaware 36 Mississippi 19 South Dakota 34 DC 14 Missouri 162 Tennessee 137 Florida 376 Montana 107 Texas 370 Georgia 115 Nebraska 60 Utah 45 Hawaii 34 Nevada 49 Vermont 89 Idaho 85 New Hampshire 105 Virginia 322 Illinois 329 New Jersey 139 Washington 531 Indiana 229 New Mexico 124 West Virginia 31 Iowa 124 New York 520 Wisconsin 298 Kansas 59 North Carolina 374 Wyoming 43

30 State Count State Count State Count Alabama 2 Kentucky 10 North Dakota 4 Alaska 5 Louisiana 5 Ohio 39 Arizona 13 Maine 29 Oklahoma 10 Arkansas 8 Maryland 20 Oregon 29 California 98 Massachusetts 36 Pennsylvania 46 Colorado 44 Michigan 48 Rhode Island 6 Connecticut 17 Minnesota 22 South Carolina 8 Delaware 5 Mississippi 3 South Dakota 6 DC 1 Missouri 17 Tennessee 17 Florida 38 Montana 9 Texas 37 Georgia 13 Nebraska 7 Utah 6 Hawaii 6 Nevada 3 Vermont 5 Idaho 9 New Hampshire 17 Virginia 35 Illinois 38 New Jersey 16 Washington 32 Indiana 16 New Mexico 14 West Virginia 4 Iowa 9 New York 49 Wisconsin 37 Kansas 6 North Carolina 44 Wyoming 4 Source: NBWA and TTB, September TTB Permitted Brewery Count 1,002 New Permits Through September 2018

31 Brewery Permits per 100,000 Residents 2018 LDA Pop (est) State Count State Count State Count Alabama 1.49 Kentucky 2.52 North Dakota 4.76 Alaska 9.48 Louisiana 1.4 Ohio 4.2 Arizona 2.74 Maine Oklahoma 1.87 Arkansas 2.36 Maryland 3.01 Oregon California 4.12 Massachusetts 4.3 Pennsylvania 4.73 Colorado Michigan 6.73 Rhode Island 4.1 Connecticut 4.45 Minnesota 5.74 South Carolina 2.43 Delaware 5.21 Mississippi 0.88 South Dakota 5.43 DC 2.57 Missouri 3.58 Tennessee 2.72 Florida 2.29 Montana Texas 1.84 Georgia 1.51 Nebraska 4.36 Utah 2.15 Hawaii 3.16 Nevada 2.16 Vermont Idaho 6.87 New Hampshire 10.1 Virginia 5.09 Illinois 3.49 New Jersey 2.06 Washington 9.47 Indiana 4.72 New Mexico 8.13 West Virginia 2.25 Iowa 5.41 New York 3.47 Wisconsin 6.92 Kansas 2.83 North Carolina 4.87 Wyoming Source: NBWA and TTB, September US Average = 4.1

32 TTB Brewery Permits Issued Per Day 2010 to YTD September Permits Issued Per Day Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 Source: and NBWA Industry Affairs, 2018

33 Small Business Administration Cumulative $1.5 Billion in Loan Approvals/Guarantees since 2009 $300,000,000 $250,000,000 $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000,000 In Addition: 1. Eliminated FET Bond Requirement 2. Reduced Paperwork and Tax Filing (annual) 3. Reduced FET to $3.50 (CBMRTA) 4. Reduced state taxes 5. State and local economic development support 6. Expanded retail and self distribution privileges 7. All = more new entrants on horizon $50,000,000 $0 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 Brewing Distilling Whining

34 Lester Jones, Chief Economist National Beer Wholesalers Association THANK YOU

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