Kjell Aleklett. Uppsala University, Sweden. Alnarp, mars Kjell Aleklett

Transcription

1 Uppsala University, Sweden Alnarp, mars 2006

2 Peak Oil on the web First ASPO conference in Uppsala 2002: Peak Oil on Google less the 1000!

3 IEA

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5 A World Addicted to Oil

6 How much energy is bound in oil? 100 ml of oil contains 1 kwh What can you do with 1 kwh? You can move a small car to the top of the Eiffel tower!

7 When will we run out of oil? Not in our lifetime as there always will be a tiny production. For the crude oil from the oldest producing oil well in the world I paid $ per barrel

8 Oil and natural gas are produced in petroleum systems

9 There must be places there we can find more oil Oil endowment - USGS

10 The future of energy The end of the Oil Age Oct 23rd 2003 Leaders from The Economist print edition On a time scale starting at year 0 everyone think that there will be a peak in the production between 2000 and 2100

11 Before the oil age, Sweden 1945 When I was born in 1945, none of the four small farms in my little Swedish village used oil for anything. Ten years later, the oil age had arrived: we had replaced coal with oil for heating, my father had bought a motorcycle, and tractors were seen in the fields.

12 Energy in Sweden during 100 years TWh A factor of five Nuclear Oil and gas 200 Hydro 100 Coal Bio From 1945 to 1970, Sweden increased its use of energy by a factor of five, or nearly 7 percent per year for 25 years. This journey into the oil age transformed Sweden from a rather poor country into the third wealthiest country (per capita) in the world. Ninety percent of the energy increase came from oil. Cheap oil made Sweden rich.

13 China: Discovery and Production Production will start to decline within 5 years Oil Discovery and Production of China 1,40 14,0 Production Discovery 1,20 12,0 1,00 10,0 Production [Gb] 0,80 0,60 8,0 6,0 Discovery [Gb] 0,40 4,0 0,20 2,0 0,00 0, Year

14 Numbers for China Percentage of global population: 21% Percentage of global oil consumption: 8%, 6.3 Mbpd Average increase in GDP last 5 years: 8.2 % Average increase in oil consumption last 5 years: 8.4 % Official statement is that China will reach Peak Oil in 2009 Future directions: Consumption of 21% of the global oil: Today 17.6 mbpd, year mbpd Questions: Is it OK that China consume 21% of the global oil production? Is it possible for the oil exporting countries to deliver 22 mbpd to China in 2030?

15 Olja föder välfärd

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17 IEA, International Energy Agency, and the future

18 IEA, (International International) The OECD Energy Agency

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20 Oil is the driving force of the world economy Relation between Oil Demand and GDP Growth, figure 3.1 in WEO2004

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22 WEO mbpd

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25 IEA uses data from USGS If not 3300 Gb then.

26 100 Gb of oil in the fields of Iraq Kirkuk East Baghdad Majnoon West Qurna Rumaila

27 The Oil Champagne Comparisons Kirkuk Let us squeeze in 100 Gb of oil into one bottle of Champagne. West Qurna East Baghdad Majnoon Rumaila

28 The Oil Champagne Comparisons There is one bottle in Iraq and if we pour the content into four glasses each glass represents a consumption of 25 billion barrels per year. This was the consumption around year 2000, today we consume 30 billion barrels per year.

29 The Oil Champagne Comparisons Consumption so far

30 The Oil Champagne Comparisons Reserves according to IEA Consumption so far

31 The Oil Champagne Comparisons? Reserves according to ASPO Consumption so far

32 The Oil Champagne Comparisons According to IEA base scenario we must find 13 more bottles within the next 25 years Reserves according to IEA Consumption so far

33 The Oil Champagne Comparisons According to IEA base scenario we must find 13 more bottles within the next 20 years?? Reserves according to IEA Consumption so far

34 USGS and Oil in USA USGS numbers for USA year 2025: F95 = 345 Gb Mean = 362 Gb F5 = 383 Gb

35 + USA

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38 New discoveries from 1995 till 2025 is 100 billion barrels found and 100 billion barrels expected to be found. USGS mean prediction for the same time period is 649 billion barrels.

39 Probabilities to find crude oil from , new oil fields Less then 50 % probability

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41 M. King Hubbert f. 1903, d 1989 "Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know."

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43 5 4 3 US Lower 48 US Lower 48: annual oil "mean" discovery & production with Hubbert discovery model 35 years discovery smooth 5 yr model Hubbert disc. production Hubbert disc. shift 35 yr oil price 2 proration 1 deepwater depression Jean Laherrère Jan year

44 När kostar oljan 100 $/fat? 90,00 Oil Price in US$ ,00 70,00 US Dollar 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 0,

45 USA wildcats

46 5 4 3 US Lower 48 US Lower 48: annual oil "mean" discovery & production with Hubbert discovery model discovery smooth 5 yr model Hubbert disc. production Hubbert disc. shift 35 yr oil price 2 proration 1 deepwater depression Jean Laherrère Jan year

47 EXPERIENCE: U. S. LOWER 48 OIL PRODUCTION Dramatic Improvement in Oil Field Technology 3.5 Production PRODUCTION (Billions of Barrels per Year) Price PRICE (2003 $ per barrels) High prices & advanced technology did not reverse trends! SAIC / MISI

48 Found and produced oil in Norway Discovery Hubbert Curve of Discovery Production 1.5 Production Forecast 5.4 Production per year [Gb] 1.0 The time between tops is 27 years 3.6 Discovery per year [Gb]

49 Oil Discovery and Production of Russia Production Discovery Production [Gb] Discovery [Gb] Year 0

50 Peak Discovery 1964 World - conventional oil Ultimate : 1900 Gb To-date 2000: 875 Gb Discoveries, Gb/a Peak Discovery High Prices Curb Demand Production, Gb/a

51 OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS 2005 Scenario Billion Barrels a year (Gb/a) M.East Other 5 Russia Europe 0 US US-48 Europe Russia Other M.East Heavy etc. Deepwater Polar NGL

52 ,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,00 Production from deep water 96 Gb Production, Gb/year

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54 Aging Youth Mature

55 Production/Consumption IEA: Consumption billion barrels

56 IEA production forecast

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58 Sadad Al Husseini 26-Oct-2004 Sadad Al Husseini, just retired as vice-president of the Saudi oil company Aramco: The American government's forecast for future oil supplies are a "dangerous overestimate".

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60 Import of crude oil Crude oil, Mbpy USA Japan China Germany South Korea France Italy India Spain Netherlands Taiwan Belgium-Lux. Singapore Thailand Turky

61 Global production, export and in-house crude oil statistic Thousend barrel per day Production Expoert Inhouse Projected demand increase : Million barrels per day Projected in-house production : Million barrels per day Projected export production : Million barrels per day Oil exporting countries must increase their export with 17% in 6 years

62 Oil Exporting Countries Oil export, Mbpd 10,00 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,00 Countries with export capacity Saudi Arabia Russian Federation Norway Iran Nigeria Venezuela United Arab Emirates Kuwait Iraq Mexico Libya Kazakhstan Angola Qatar Canada Oman Syria Vietnam Yemen Malaysia 2004 Which countries can deliver 8 millions barrels more per day?

63 Russia

64 Oil Discovery and Production of Russia Production Discovery Production [Gb] Discovery [Gb] Year 0

65 Import of crude oil Crude oil, Mbpy USA Japan China Germany South Korea France Italy India Spain Netherlands Taiwan Belgium-Lux. Singapore Thailand Turky

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67 How to plan production from an oilfield

68 Production in reality 600 Production of oil and LNG from Statfjord, Norge Accumulerad produktion [miljoner fat] (Produktion per år)*10 [miljoner fat]

69 Production from individual fields in Norway, Ekofisk was first

70 Production from individual fields in Norway

71 Production from individual fields in Norway

72 Norway official numbers Oljeproduksjon, Norsk kontinentalsokkel Alle ressurskategorier Uoppdagede ressurser Ressurser i funn Ressurser i felt Reserver Faktisk Produsert per : 3,0 GSm3 Gjenværende reserver: 1,2 GSm3 Ressurser i felt: 0,4 GSm3 Ressurser i funn: 0,1 GSm3 Uoppdagede ressurser: 1,2 GSm3 MSm M:\Lag\D-RessAnalyse\EKM\Totalprod.xls

73 Prudhoe Bay - Reported Reserves Reported ReservesGb

74 Prudhoe Bay

75 35 Majnoon Iraq Karamay Complex China East Texas USA Umm Shaif Abu Dhabi Panshan China Sabriya Kuwait

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77 Oil Discovery and Production of Kazakhstan Production Discovery Production [Gb] Discovery [Gb] Year 0.0

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79 Qatar The Oil Triangle Within the Oil Triangle you can find roughly 60 percent of the remaining oil reserves in the world. The 2001 Cheney report, US Energy Policy, says that in year 2020 around 54 to 67 percent of the world producttion of oil needs to come from the Oil Triangle.

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81 Giant oilfields with more than 10 gb Name Country Discovery Ultimate Date [Gb] 1 Ghawar Saudi Arabia Burgan Greater Kuwait Safaniya Saudi Arabia Berri Saudi Arabia Rumalia N&S Iraq Zakum Abu Dhabi Manifa Saudi Arabia Kirkuk Iraq Gashsaran Iran Abqaiq Saudi Arabia Ahwaz Iran Marun Iran Samotlor Russia Lagunillas Venezuela Agha Jari Iran Zuluf Saudi Arabia Prudhoe Bay Alaska, USA Daquing Complex China Romashkino Russia Bu Hasa Abu Dhabi East Baghdad Iraq Akal-Nohoch Mexico

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83 The Bab Field

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85 Oil Discovery and Production of the Middle East Gulf 12.0 Production Discovery Production [G b] Discovery [G b] Year

86 Oil Discovery and Production of the Middle East Gulf 12.0 Production 120 Forecast US DOE Discovery Production [G b] 6.0 New forecast ASPO 60 Discovery [G b] Year

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88 The world needs new oil fields ExxonMobil: In other words, by 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today.

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90 75 percent of the global reserves can be found in these desert countries

91 75 percent of the global reserves can be found in these desert countries?????

92 A Producer s Perspective on the Oil Industry London 2004 Sadad I. Al-Husseini Dhahran, Saudi Arabia

93 120 mm b/d 100 mm b/d Reservoir capability declines: the leaking bucket syndrome 2% increase mm b/d 60 mm b/d 40 mm b/d 82 +/- 3-5 % capability decline rate ExxonMobil: 4-6 % mmbd - 59 mmbd 97.6 mmbd 20 mm b/d mmbd = 10 Saudi Arabias by

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95 The first field in the North Sea was discovered in year The oil production peaked 30 years later with a maximum production of 6 mbpd. Is it possible to make new discoveries within 25 years that will yield a production of 25 mbpd in year 2030?

96 Oil sand and crude oil Billion Bbls Saudi Arabia Iran Iraq United Arab Emirates Kuwait Venezuala Russia Libya Nigeria U.S. Canada s Oil Sands 50 0

97 Production of oil from oil sand Thousand Bbls Per Day Year Total Mining Total In Situ, NEB

98 Resulting Oil Production from Canada s s Oil Sands, Canada s s Conventional oil and the North Sea 8000 Thousand BBls Per Day Gap! Year Conventional Oil Production, Canada + The North Sea OSTRM Oil Sands Production Forecast

99 Jeroen van der Veer January My view is that easy oil has probably passed its peak.

100 OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS 2005 Scenario Billion Barrels a year (Gb/a) M.East Other 5 Russia Europe 0 US US-48 Europe Russia Other M.East Heavy etc. Deepwater Polar NGL

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103 Statements on oil by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

104 Statement by the Swedish Prime Minister Göran Persson The oil might declining? We have someone hear in Uppsala named Aleklett that claims that. The Swedish government will appoint a commission that should suggests what to do to make Sweden less dependent on oil by 2020.

105 Some thoughts Price: The oil price is set in trades in New York and London Reserves: 75 percent of remaining oil reserves can be found in Muslim countries. We must find ways to collaborate. Production: New reserves will in the future be less important then decline in existing oil fields. Future: We must save oil and when it is possible use renewable options.

106 God to Noah: Build the Ark now as it is hard to do it under the water.

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