Atlanta Mortgage Bankers Association

Transcription

1 Atlanta Mortgage Bankers Association Date: February 9, 2016 Presented by: Domonic D. Purviance Sr. Financial Policy Analyst The opinions expressed are those of the presenter and not those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta or the Federal Reserve or its Board of Governors.

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4 AtlantaJobGrowth3Q15 Source:BureauofLabor 100,000 80,000 2,600,000 60,000 40,000 2,550,000 JobGrowth:YearoverYear(Bar) 20, ,000-40,000-60,000 2,500,000 2,450,000 2,400,000 TotalEmployment(Line) -80,000 2,350, , ,000 2,300, ,000 2,250, , MonthofDate

5 AtlantaJobGrowthbySector Source:BureauofLabor Subconcept Construction AtlantaPeaktoCurrentJobGrowth Source:BureauofLabor Subconcept Construction Educationandhealthcare Educationandhealthcare Financialactivities Financialactivities Government Government Information Information Leisureandhospitality Leisureandhospitality Manufacturing Manufacturing Miningandlogging Professionalandbusiness services Transportationand warehousing -30K -20K -10K 0K 10K 20K EmploymentbySector-YearoverYearChange Miningandlogging Professionalandbusiness services Transportationand warehousing -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% EmploymentbySector-PeaktoCurent MonthofDate June2015 ShowHistory

6 NetMigration(DomesticandInternational) Source:USCensusBureau 110, , , ,000 90,000 90,000 80,000 80,000 NetDomesticMigration 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 NetInternationalMigration 30,000 30,000 20,000 20,000 10,000 10, NetMigration-Domestic NetMigration-International 0

7 Barow Bartow Carol Cherokee Clayton Cobb Coweta Dawson DeKalb Fayete Forsyth Fulton Gwinnet Hal Henry Jackson Newton Paulding Spalding Walton -15,000-10,000-5, ,000 10,000 15,000 CurentDomesticMigration(Net) -15,000-10,000-5, ,000 10,000 15,000 PeakDomesticMigration(Net) AtlantaDomesticMigrationby-12/31/2014 Source:USCensusBureau MeasureNames CurentDomesticMigration PeakDomesticMigration Date 12/31/2014 ShowHistory

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9 AtlantaExistingHomeSalesTrend Source:Corelogic,Moody's 30.0% 140, % 20.0% 130,000 ExistingHomeSales:YearoverYear(Bars) 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% -30.0% 120, , ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 AnnualExistingHomeSales(Line) -35.0% Date

10 AtlantaHomePriceTrends Source:Corelogic 14.0% 12.0% 140 HomePrices:YearoverYear(Bars) 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% HomePriceIndex-Yr2000=100 (Line) -10.0% % Date

11 AtlantaHomePriceAppreciation Date-June2015 Source:Corelogic Cbsa Atlanta-SandySprings-Ros. MetroDivision Al Al City Al ZipCode Al MonthofDate June2015 ShowHistory HomePriceAppreciation -24.4% 34.0%

12 AtlantaNew HomeClosings3Q15 Source:Metrostudy 55,000 50,000 45,000 AnnualNewHomeClosings 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Quarter

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14 AtlantaMedianDTIvsLTV Source:McDash,BlackKnight 35.0% 34.0% 33.0% 96% 94% 92% MedianDebttoIncome(DTI)Ratio(BARS) 32.0% 31.0% 30.0% 29.0% 28.0% 27.0% 26.0% 25.0% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 80% MedianLoantoValue(LTV)Ratio(%)(LINE) 24.0% 78% 23.0% 22.0% %

15 DistributionofFICOScores Source:McDash,BlackKnight 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Plus 620to750 Lessthan620

16 DelinquenciesvsMedianFICOatOrigination Source:McDash,BlackKnight 10.0% SeriouslyDel.Mortgage% (90PlusPastDue)(BARS) 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% MedianFICO atorgination(line) 0.0%

17 AtlantaRegion:SeriouslyDelinquentMortgages Source:McDash,BlackKnight Date-June2015 Cbsa Atlanta-SandySprings-Ros. Al SDMortgages 0.0% 31.3% MonthofDate June2015 ShowHistory

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19 AtlantaNew HomeStarts3Q15 Source:Metrostudy 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 AnnualNewHomeStarts 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Quarter

20 AtlantaRegionNew HomeStarts-March2005 Source:Metrostudy Month March2005 ShowHistory AnnStarts 0 2,000

21 AtlantaRegionNew HomeStarts-September2015 Source:Metrostudy Month September2015 ShowHistory AnnStarts 0 2,000

22 AtlantaVacantDevelopedLots Source:Metrostudy 140K 130K 120K 110K 100K 90K VacantDevelopedLots 80K 70K 60K 50K 40K 30K 20K 10K 0K Quarter

23 AtlantaRegionVacantDevelopedLots-March2005 Source:Metrostudy MonthofQ March2005 ShowHistory VDL 0 4,000

24 AtlantaRegionVacantDevelopedLots-September2015 Source:Metrostudy MonthofQ September2015 ShowHistory VDL 0 4,000

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26 AtlantaHousingAffordabilityIndex Source:FederalReserveBankofAtlanta,Corelogic Index100=Affordable,>100=MoreAffordable,<100=LessAffordable ExistingHomeSales:YearoverYear Date

27 AtlantaRegionMedianHomePrice Source:Corelogic Blue=>$250,000,Orange=<$250,000 Cbsa Atlanta-SandySprings-Ros. Al Date-June2015 MedianHomePrice $45,991 $739,500 MonthofDate June2015 ShowHistory

28 ForsythInventorybyPricePoint-2015Q2 Source:Metrostudy Range Name Forsyth QuarterofDate 2015Q2 ShowHistory 35.0% 35.0% PeakTotalInventorySharebyPricePoint 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% TotalInventorySharebyPricePoint 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% MeasureNames CurentInventory PeakInventory $1-$99 $100-$149 $150-$199 $200-$249 $250-$299 $300-$399 $400-$499 $500-$ %

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