The clockspeed dilemma. What does it mean for automotive innovation?

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "The clockspeed dilemma. What does it mean for automotive innovation?"

Paulina Morgan
6 years ago
Views:

1 The clockspeed dilemma What does it mean for automotive innovation?

2 Our journey 1

The ecosystem is evolving Who are the key players? Venture Capital Technology Start-ups High Tech Entrants How and when will investments be made?

3 The ecosystem is evolving Who are the key players? Venture Capital Technology Start-ups High Tech Entrants How and when will investments be made? Traditional OEMs Auto Venture Capital Potential Nontraditional OEMs Traditional Tier 1s How will the balance of power shift amongst the players? Global Regulators Universities and Research Labs What are the competitive strategies? 2

4 I don t have to take keys from dad Focus group results 92 % 82 % 79 % 64 % OVERALL, 79% OF PEOPLE ASKED IN FOCUS GROUPS WOULD WANT MOBILITY OPTIONS FOR SENIORS CHICAGO ATLANTA DENVER TOTAL MOBILITY OPTIONS FOR SENIORS 79 % Source KPMG focus groups and analysis 3

5 Parents can be everywhere at the same time Focus group results 83 % 91 % 73 % 82 % OVERALL, 82% OF PEOPLE ASKED IN FOCUS GROUPS WOULD WANT MOBILITY OPTIONS FOR KIDS CHICAGO ATLANTA DENVER TOTAL MOBILITY OPTIONS FOR KIDS 82 % Source KPMG focus groups and analysis 4

6 55 is the new 45 and 65 is the new 55 U.S. personal miles traveled per capita , miles in thousands % % % % plus % % 3.0 Note: (a) Discounted 25% from U.S. BTS total VMT for 1995, 2001, 2009, 2014 (assumed to be commercial miles), (b) Multiplied by NHTS occupancy rates applied 2009 rate to 2014 numbers). Source: US BTS data, NHTS data, U.S. Census data, KPMG Analysis 5

7 Small changes in the travel preferences by different age groups results in large changes in total personal miles traveled Historical U.S. PERSONAL MILES TRAVELED Forecasted CAGR 0.8% Trillions of miles % Personal Miles Traveled (PMT) Forecasted PMT based on demographic shifts Forecasted PMT based on population growth Year Note: (a) Discounted 25% from U.S. BTS total VMT for 1995, 2001, 2009, 2014 (assumed to be commercial miles), (b) Multiplied by NHTS occupancy rates applied 2009 rate to 2014 numbers) Source: U.S. BTS data, NHTS data, U.S. Census data, KPMG Analysis 6

8 Long term look at vehicle miles traveled across different future scenarios U.S. VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED Historical Forecasted AVO Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Trillions of miles Forecasted VMT,< 1: More cars on the road than people Forecasted VMT, = 1.2: Car can drive your parents and take the kids to practice Forecasted VMT, status quo occupancy AVO = 1.67 Forecasted VMT, = 2: Carpooling and ride-sharing takes off Year Note: (a) Discounted 25% from U.S. BTS total VMT for 1995, 2001, 2009, 2014 (assumed to be commercial miles), (b) Multiplied by NHTS occupancy rates applied 2009 rate to 2014 numbers) Source: U.S. BTS data, NHTS data, U.S. Census data, KPMG Analysis 7

9 Key changes: Big opportunities Personal miles will soar. The tech giants and disruptive startups are here to stay. Welcome to the world of tailored premiums. Build flexible architecture for an ever-changing future. Choose your core competencies wisely. Sense the ecosystem from its center to its farthest reaches. Embrace the value of failure. 8

10 Conclusion Who will be among the next generation of leading companies? What new business models will emerge? How bold will your company be?

The Case for New Trends in Travel

The Case for New Trends in Travel The Future of Cities and Travel Steven E. Polzin, PhD. Center for urban Transportation Research University of South Florida October 19, 2008 Successful Strategies from