Growth, Innovation, and the Future of the Arizona Economy. Michael Crow Arizona State University December 21, 2016
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1 Growth, Innovation, and the Future of the Arizona Economy Michael Crow Arizona State University December 21, 2016
2 Billions Arizona Gross Domestic Product, $280 $275 $270 $265 $260 $255 $250 $245 $240 $235 $ Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts dollars
3 Arizona Economic Output by Metro and Sector, 2015 Phoenix Tucson Flagstaff Prescott Non-Metro Yuma Sierra Vista Data source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts
4 Per Capita GDP Relative to US Average, % 115% 110% 105% 100% California Texas Colorado Oregon 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 76.6% Utah Arizona 70% Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts
5 Per Capita Personal Income Relative to US Average, % 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% Data source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts
6 Per Capita Personal Income Relative to US Average, % 110% 105% 100% 95% Detroit Metro 90% 85% 80% Phoenix Metro Data source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts
7 Bachelor s Degree Attainment Rate of Population 25 Years and Over, % 38% 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 26% Colorado Washington California Oregon Utah Texas Arizona New Mexico 24% Data source: US Census Bureau, Table S1501
8 GDP Per Capita Relative to US Bachelor s Degree Attainment and GDP per Capita Relative to National Average, Texas California Washington Oregon Colorado 0.9 Utah 0.85 Nevada New Mexico Arizona 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% Data source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Census Bureau Bachelor s Degree Attainment Data: Governing.com analysis of 2011 American Community Survey and BEA
9 Per Capita State Support for Higher Education, FY16 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Data: Grapevine Center, Illinois State University
10 Business and Higher Education Research Expenditures by State, 2013 $35,000 $97,491 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 Business Higher Education $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Source: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering State Profiles
11 Patents Granted by Metro, ,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 1,764 Patents 18 th Highest 0
12 Percentage Change in Patents Granted to Western Metros Relative to % 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% Seattle San Diego Provo San Francisco San Jose Las Vegas Tucson Portland Denver Salt Lake Los Angeles Phoenix Riverside
13 Patents Issued to Top 20 Phoenix Metro Assignees, Amkor MCalister Medtronic Boeing Broadcom AMEX Karsten ASU Microchip Tech ON Motorola Intel Honeywell Freescale Data: USPTO
14 4,000 Patents Issued to Top 20 Seattle Metro Assignees, ,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Boeing Amazon Google UW Intel Invention Science Fund 1,500 Microsoft 1, Phoenix Data: USPTO
15 Patents Issued to Top 20 Minneapolis Metro Assignees, ,500 2,000 1,500 1, Cardiac Pacemakers Medtronic Ecolab UM Boston Sci. Seagate Honeywell Phoenix Data: USPTO M
16 Annual Change in Number of Arizona Firms, Data: US Census, Longitudinal Business Database
17 Millions of Dollars Value of Venture Capital Deals by State, $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 Washington $1.40B Colorado $1.18B Utah $670M $400 $200 $ Oregon $670M Arizona $987M Data: Thomson Reuters, National Science Foundation
18 Exports by State, 2015
19 Arizona Exports, 2015
20 Arizona Labor Market Churn, , , ,000 0 Job Creation Net Job Creation -200, ,000 Job Destruction -600,000 Data: US Census, Longitudinal Business Database
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22 Arizona Employment by Occupation, Minimum Education Required and Probability of Job Loss Due to Automation No Formal Education High School Associate s or Credential Bachelor s Master s Doctoral Chance of Automation Low High Size reflects May 2015 employment in Arizona Red color reflects high chance of job loss due to automation Data: BLS and Frey and Osborne (2013)
23 The Way Forward for Arizona 0-5 Years 5-15 Years Years Objective Change mindset Emerge as leading American economy Emerge as leading global knowledgedriven economy Strategies Launch world-class engineering school Deliver MIT/Stanford-level innovation ecosystem Highest educated workforce in North America Tactics Build investment strategy Change brand Unify business community TBD TBD
24 Broad Public Support for Human Capital-Based Economic Development 88% Favor elevating Arizona State University s engineering school to be one of the top five programs in the country 68% Willing to pay one quarter of one cent more on non food products for a ten year temporary sales tax to help fund new economic initiatives for the greater Phoenix region Data: Public Opinion Strategies, Oct MOE: 4.4%
25
26 Percent of Residents over the Age of 65 Years 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
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