Weather, Supply and the Turkish Flour Miller - The Outlook for World Wheat Prices 2018/19
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1 Weather, Supply and the Turkish Flour Miller - The Outlook for World Wheat Prices 2018/19 v Daniel W Basse President AgResource Chicago, IL January 2016 Daniel W Basse Daniel Basse Daniel President W Basse AgResource President March 2016 President Chicago, IL AgResource Chicago, March 2017 IL November basse@agresource.com 2016 Daniel Basse President AgResource Daniel W Basse Chicago, IL President AgResource Company January 2017 Copyright Copyright AgResource AgResource Company. Company. All All Rights Rights Reserved. Reserved. Daniel W Basse President AgResource Chicago, IL March 2018 basse@agresource.com
2 2018 World Wheat Themes World Political/Economic Order is Changing to Disorder! Central Banks were accommodative for the past decade with $23 Trillion of QE, low interest rates as they all worked in concert. Central Banks are now unwinding prior policies and ending their working relationships. And politically, we have Brexit, North Korea, Donald and regional protectionism on trade. The markets is state of transition that will produce greater financial risk and volatility into Last year s Black Swan was record large Russian grain yields. Logistics and infrastructure investment is needed to absorb the growing supply! World wheat prices are now determined in the Black Sea Not Chicago! The US is the world s high cost wheat/corn producer. US wheat exports will continue to decline in coming years with lows projected at just MMTs. China to build new ethanol giga-factories. China s only chance to use all of its off grade corn is to burn it as fuel. It will take China 3-5 years to use its corn stocks World Wheat Production Likely to be Record Large in Today s, the market s focus on the US Plains drought and record export demand for Black Sea wheat along with cold weather. 2018/19 world wheat export demand looks to be static amid favorable growing weather for North Africa. Iran and India look to be larger wheat importers, with EU/Russia wheat supplies to be massive. v Copyright Copyright AgResource AgResource Company. Company. All All Rights Rights Reserved. Reserved.
3 2018 World Wheat Themes Adverse weather or a 20% drop in the value of the USD are needed to spark a lasting recovery in world wheat prices. Key resistance is offered at $ /MTs basis Black Sea wheat in the period from late March/April. The world is producing record amounts of food, the key question going forward is whether future economic growth (outside of the US) can sustain larger demand? NEW DEMAND DRIVERS are needed to alter the oversupplied Ag Landscape! For now, adverse weather is driving wheat prices upwards. v Copyright Copyright AgResource AgResource Company. Company. All All Rights Rights Reserved. Reserved.
4 World Wheat Prices Rise to 2.5 Year Highs at $20/MT Black Sea
5 World Barley and Feed Wheat Prices Even More Bullish!
6 Fob Wheat Prices in Turkish Lira Values at 6 Year Highs! Lira/MT ex France ex Russia ex US Gulf Oca 18 Eki 17 Tem 17 Nis 17 Oca 17 Eki 16 Tem 16 Nis 16 Oca 16 Eki 15 Tem 15 Nis 15 Oca 15 Eki 14 Tem 14 Nis 14 Oca 14
7 MMTs World Flour Exports- Turkey Pushes to 3.6 MMTs 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 Turkey US Europe Argentina Kazakhstan Pakistan 0,5 0,
8 MMTs 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, World Flour Exports- Turkey Pushes to 3.9 MMTs in 2018/ Turkey
9
10 IMF and World Bank Forecasts Are Improving
11 Emerging Market Import Volume Soars in 2017! Helping Food Commodity Demand
12 World Inflation 1 st Up Tick Since 11 Annual % Change in Avg. Consumer Prices
13 One has to be Careful About being Too Bearish Commodities!
14 Can China Keep Managing the Risk of Credit?
15 China Consumption of Meat is Flattening!
16 Can China and India Drive Improved World Food Demand?
17 For Now Its Excessive Supplies that Depress World Grain Values
18 US Dollar has been Tame Since President Trump Elected in 2016!
19 Exchange Rates Highly Important to Markets Weaker USD!
20 Grain Price Changes in Local Currencies Since mid-2014
21 World Wheat Market Share By Exporter 35% Black Sea EU US 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
22 World Farmers To Expand Wheat Seeding, With Above Trendline Yield
23 World Wheat Stocks Abundant Over 1,020 MMT s to Start 2018/19
24 World Exporters Hold Extra 6 MMTs Wheat, But Stocks/Use Declines
25 Russian Wheat Yields Up 80% in just 5 Years.. Astounding!
26 Ukraine is Similar to Russia with 100% Gain in Yield Since 2000!
27 World Wheat Yield vs. Trend The Black Sea Influence on World Yield 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%
28 World Wheat Trade To Expand 3% in 2018/19 on Milling Demand
29 World Wheat Trade Up Slightly From a Year Ago; World Demand Tails Off!
30 2018/19 Feed Wheat Trade In Retreat Just 8% of World Wheat Trade!
31 There Are Large Swings in Monthly Global Wheat Trade
32 North American Wheat Exports Suffer
33 Black Sea Exports Soar; Russia to Export MMTs of Wheat
34 Southern Hemisphere Wheat Exports- Australian Drought Bites!
35 EU Wheat Exports Declining Aggressive Sellers April-July?
36 New World Wheat Demand Drivers
37 Sub-Sahara African Wheat Production & Consumption Production Consumption
38 Sub-Sahara African Wheat Imports MMTs
39 India GDP Growth 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% India China World
40 Indian Domestic Wheat Consumption MMTs ARC
41 Indian Monsoon 2016 (left) & Dryness Hits Irrigation Supplies
42 Indian Cash Wheat Price
43 Indian Wheat Balance Sheet Mil Hectares, MTs 2015/ / /18 AgResource 2018/19 Beg. Stocks Harvested Yield Production Imports Total Supply Feed Food/Seed/In dus Exports Total Demand End Stocks
44 Indian Wheat Net Trade MMTs
45 Iranian Wheat Stocks MMTs Stocks Stocks/Use Stocks/Use % 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
46 Iranian Wheat Imports MMTs [VALUE]
47 Egypt s GASC Pays Highest CIF Wheat Price in 3 Years! 47
48 World Wheat Prices Peak; $ / MT with Normal Black Sea Weather!
49 Black Sea Wheat Yield Trends 40% 5 Years 6 Years 5 Years 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
50 There Are Some World Weather Problems!
51 Deepening Drought in the Wheat Areas of the US Plains
52 US Wheat Overpriced via World Marketplace - Diminished Trade!
53 US Wheat Seeding Lowest Since 1890!
54 The Worsening 2017/18 Argentine Drought Daniel W Basse President AgResource Chicago, IL January 2016 Daniel Basse President March 2016 Daniel W Basse President AgResource Company
55 Driest December- February Period Since 1980!
56 2018 Argentine Soybean Crop of; MMTs including Abandonment
57 Big Moves in Soymeal and Cash/ Board Crush - $ /Ton
58 World Corn Supplies Reach Peak? v Copyright Copyright AgResource AgResource Company. Company. All All Rights Rights Reserved. Reserved.
59 World Corn Reflects No World Trade Growth! Limits Rally Potential v Copyright Copyright AgResource AgResource Company. Company. All All Rights Rights Reserved. Reserved.
60 Ag Tech Landscape Expansion!
61 The Move to Electrification of the world Auto Fleet!
62 Memphis Meats; The Arrival of Cellular Agriculture? 110 TL/KG
63 Much To Do Yet with Hunger Killing 9 Mil/Year!
64 Thank You v Copyright Copyright AgResource AgResource Company. Company. All All Rights Rights Reserved. Reserved.
An Abundance of World Wheat: The Americas & Australia Compete for Stagnant World Trade
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