QB Patrick Mahomes $7, QB Drew Brees $6, QB Andrew Luck $6,

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1 QB Patrick Mahomes $7, When a game has a total of 57 points, good things tend to happen. Why get cute here? The Chiefs offense has been unstopable all season. Is it plausible that a young QB plays poorly with the extra pressure of a playoff game? Sure, but its not incredibly likely. Colts Defense has been one of the better units in the 2nd half of the season but going into the hostile environment at Arrowhead is a tall order for any defense. Colts have actually been much better vs the run then the pass this season as well which raises the likelihood even further that the Chiefs will need to score via the pass. Mahomes is the safest QB play on the slate and the most likely to put up the highest score. QB Drew Brees $6, QB Andrew Luck $6, QB Nick Foles $5, Brees at home in the playoffs, magical things could happen. There is always that possibility that the saints could fall back into that heavy run focus tough defensive approach they used in a number of games this season where Brees production was down. I tend to believe that the Eagles will make a game of this one. Ben Roethlisburger put up 31 points on this team just a couple of weeks back. The upside here is incredible with Brees fuly capable of throwing for 4-6 TD's in a ceiling game. Stack with Thomas, Kamara, Ginn Luck is in a game witha 57 point total facing a team that is ranked at the bottom of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing QB's, WR's and TE's. Nothing to overthink here. If you aren't playing Mahomes in cash games, Luck is option #2. This Colts offense is incredibly potentent. The only thing that has held them back all season has been their ability to dominate via the run on occasion. There are legitimate sharps that like Luck to win this game. With so many points being scored by the Chiefs offense combined with bottom of the league level defense, this game figures to produce a plethora of fantasy points for everyone involved. Stack everyone If you need a pay down option at QB, Foles is interesting. We already know about his playoff magic as demonstrated last week. More importantly is the matchup. Saints play solid defense particularly vs the run but they are allowing the 2nd most points in the league to the QB position. He's priced significantly below the top tier studs which opens up a unique lineup construction approach. As a bonus, his pass catchers are bargain priced so building stacks with him at the helm further opens up the ability to stud up at other positions. All of his pass catchers are in play as well. Agholor, Jeffrey and Tate should all see plenty of targets in a game where running up the gut with a plodder probably won't work for the Eagles.

2 RB Ezekiel Elliott $8, RB Todd Gurley II $8, Rams have been just ok vs the run this season allowing a middling 21.2 fantasy points per game to the position good for 16th overall. If the Cowboys are going to have a chance of keeping this game competetive it will be on the shoulders of Zeke to make it happen. Zeke projects as the top overall play on this slate. The only question with Zeke this week is how much exposure do you want to get. As long as the Cowboys play competent offense at all in this game, Zeke should have a good day. The expectation for Zeke should be in the 25 touch range with heavy passing game usage. Gurley's health is a significant questionmark at this point which significantly increases the potential range of outcomes in this matchup. Per Rotowire: "McVay told Cameron DaSilva of USA Today that there will be a "good balance of both" Gurley and C.J. Anderson on Saturday against the Cowboys, assuming Gurley is active. It's unclear how close Gurley will come to his regular-season workload of 22.5 touches per game". The idea that McVay is discussing a time share is extremely concerning as well. The Cowboys have been solid defensively this season vs the run ranking 11th overall in points allowed per game to the position. The 8K salary is attractive on Gurley here but his health situation is a legitimate concern. RB Alvin Kamara $7, Kamara was rested in the final week of the season and has had two weeks to heal up after a long season. He is the most exciting player on the Saints and is locked into 6+ targets and a heavy redzone role. His volume should be lower overall as compared Zeke but his ceiling is just as high. RB Melvin Gordon III $6, Gordon's Draftkings salary is incredibly low this week, over $2K below his peak Draftkings salary. My primary concern with him are his recent knee injuries which slowed him down for the last quarter of the season. Assuming he can stay healthy through this entire game he should be able to exceed salary based expectations. The strength of the Patriots defense is their elite CB play. They have been attackable via the run all season and I expect the Chargers to feed them a heavy dose of Gordon in what could be a close and lower scoring game RB Marlon Mack $5, Mack is coming off a 24 carry effort vs the Texans and their #1 ranked run defense. He crushed them to the tune of 148 yards, 1 TD's and even saw 3 targets in the passing game. Mack's increasing usage over the past few games bodes well for his prospects in what should be the highest scoring game of the weekend. The Colts would be wise to try and control the clock with the run as much as possible in this one. Chiefs rank 30th overall in fantasy points allowed to enemy RB's which makes this one of the best on paper matchups of the entire weekend slate RB Mark Ingram $5, RB Damien Williams $5, RB James White $4, RB Sony Michel $4, RB Darren Sproles $4, Ingram's quality games have been few and far between since returning from his suspension this season. It's worth noting that in week 11 when the Saints were destroying the Eagles (and my Carson Wentz DFS play) Ingram would up lucking into 2 TD's and a 25.3 point fantasy total on Draftkings. That has been more of an exception then the rule this season however. I'm only using Ingram in GPP stacks with Saints Defense to cover the possibility of another Saints destruction of the Eagles People will shy away from Williams this week for two reasons. First, the Colts run defense is percieved to be excellent. They were able to stop Zeke and Barkley in games. He also didn't do much in what appeared to be a smash spot in week 17 vs the Raiders which was a reminder of how the Chiefs will often simply forget about their running game completely for inexplicable reasons. "Andy Reid Life". That being said, this game remains the smash game of the weekend and Williams should remain the primary RB option for the Chiefs. With the likely return of spencer Ware, his volume expectation will be down a bit in this spot which increases the danger and decreases the floor on Williams. If Ware does not come back for this game I would be much higher on Williams White remains a volatile week to week play. It would be amazing if we could combine him and Michel into one workhorse RB but we don't have that option this week. The Patriots lack passing game weapons and on top of that, the Chargers are very difficult to attack through the air due to their elite CB play. White is an interesting, relatively low owned GPP option on this slare and is locked in to 5-6 targets and some carries as well. I prefer paying up a bit for Mack, Gordon and Kamara types where the volume is more reliable with White being more of a hope to get lucky play. With the massive salary difference on Fanduel (7400) compared to Draftkings (4900) I will completely avoid him on FD and get my exposure where he is cheaper The primary weakness in the Chargers defense has been vs the run where they rank 24th overall and give up 23.4 Fanduel PPG to the position. No team in the league is more opponent specific in their game planning as the Patriots are. The Chargers have been fantastic as far as limiting opposing WR scoring which implies that teams attack them via the RB position as a counter. Everyone hates playing Michel due to his low floor with the lack of passing game work but he should be the Pats RB that gets the most touches in this particular game. His goalline role is locked in and his salary level is reasonable considering his upside. Last week in a similar situation facing a top ranked rush defense they went with a heavy dosage of Sproles. If they go back to that this week he should get enough touches to have a shot at exceeding salary based expectations. Sproles came up in the league and spent most of his career with the Saints. Now in what could be the final game of his career he's going back to where it all started. I can buy in to that type of narrative

3 WR Michael Thomas $7, Thomas has a fantastic matchup on paper. He also happens to have dud games fairly frequently. The best case scenario on a play on Thomas is if the Eagles make a high scoring game of it. Brees spreads the foolball around more then any other QB but teams tend to lean on their stars in the playoffs.. Thomas can have a big game this week and since I'll be building lineups for multiple slates without a high number of games and choices, I'll use Thomas exclusively in stacks with Brees or Foles WR Tyreek Hill $7, If you are looking to stack up the Colts Chiefs game its all about elite WR and TE choices. At the high end of the WR spectrum we have Hill and Hilton. Hill has been at his best when the Chiefs have been pressured by an opposing offense. The Colts don't have anyone capable of covering Hill with any sort of regularity. At the same time the Colts allow the lowest fantasy points per game of any team to opposing WR's this season. #1 overall ranking!! When considering matchups the most chalk approach will be to pair up Mahomes with Kelce this week and use Hilton on the comeback in game stacks. Hill then becomes the closest we can get to a GPP contrarian play on the highest projected game/team on this slate. WR T.Y. Hilton $6, Hilton is an explosive player but the past two games hes caught 2 of 6 targets in one and 5 of 10 in another game. He's has a lingering ankle injury that appears to at least somewhat have been effecting him over the past few weeks. That efficiency from Hilton over the past few games isn't ideak. That said the salary on Hilton is great compared to his potential in what looks to be a high scoring affair. He remains a target machine in this Colts offense and should be able to produce even if he's not at 100% WR Amari Cooper $6, Rams are in the middle of the league as far as fantasy points allowed to WR's coming in 18th overall. Cooper has been significantly better at home then on the road this season as has the Dallas offense as a whole. I'm not crazy about the matchup vs Aquib Talib here but its not something to completely shy away from either WR Keenan Allen $6, WR Julian Edelman $6, Allen has a low ADOT and it generally takes significant volume for him to produce. The emergence of Mike Williams as a passing game weapon in the latter half of the season has muted his target volume in all but a few outlier games. Ofer the past three games, all coming vs high quality defenses, he has averaged just 7 targets and under 10 DK FPPG. Prior to those three tough matchups he had been on an solid run 18+ fantasy point peformances with a number of 10+ target games mixed in. Allen should see plenty of Devin McCourty in this matchup. McCourty is a top 20 corner that matches up well with Allen. I won't have much Rivers exposure in the main slate this weekend so I don't see having a ton of Allen either for better or for worse. Edelman is a tale of two situations this week. On the positive side, he's basically the only game in town for the Patriots passing attack right now. He's seen double digit targets in every game (outside of the Jets turdfest). On the negative side, he will be matched up against Desmond King who has been a very solid slot CB for the Chargers. I think volume trumps matchup here and Edelman should provide a high target floor at his salary level. WR Robert Woods $5, Woods Draftkings salary is significantly lower then his Fanduel salary this week on a relative basis. Draftkings is more sensitive to matchups and Dallas ranking 6th overall in FPPG allowed to opposing WR's probably played a large role in the salary drop. With Gurley not at full strength, and Dallas being very solid vs the run, Woods should be in line for another 7-9 quality targets in this game where his slot role will keep him away from the strength of the Dallas secondary. I prefer the play on Draftkings due to the salary savings WR Alshon Jeffery $5, Jeffrey continues to be the 1A in the Eagles WR corps. He was targeted 9x vs the bears last week, more then any other WR. They do spread the football around quite a bit which is concerning from a floor ceiling perspective considering Jeffrey is priced significantly above Agholor and Tate. He's actually priced above Ertz on Draftkings as well which is interesting. The Saints are 31st in FPPG to WR's this season which makes this a prime on paper matchup for Jeffrey WR Brandin Cooks $5, Cooks was the star for the Rams in week 17 but that role has flipflopped between him and Woods all season. Woods tends to be higher owned and brings the higher floor to the table whereas Cooks is more of the GPP play with massive low ownership upside. Both are underpriced on DK this week and fairly priced on Fanduel WR Dontrelle Inman $4, Can't deny that Luck and Inman have had a nice connection the past couple of weeks. It doesn't come close to justifying his Draftkings salary increase to He's now had target counts of 5, 6, 4 over the past three weeks. The last couple of those games came against slower paced teams particularly on offense. If Inman is having a big day, Luck is probably having a monster day so exlusively a stack with Luck play WR Mike Williams $4, Williams has been seeing decent target totals on a weekly basis. The numbers vary from week to week but he's averaged around 6 targets per game over the past month. His matchup which will likely see him covered by Stefan Gilmore, by some measures the top rated CB in the league. WR Golden Tate $4, We need value on this slate and Tate is going to be a popular pay down option. He's coming off an 8 target game and he's got a fantastic matchup facing a Saints defense that allows the most poinst to opposing WR's. WR Sammy Watkins $4, If Watkins returns this week at full strength he is a bargain priced at 4500 on Draftkings. I'd want to know that he will be outthere for most of the snaps but the matchup and game total are fantastic. WR Josh Reynolds $4, Reynolds production has fluctuated wildly since being thrust into a starting role. To illustrate the point, over the past three games he has seen target totals of 12, 2 and 7 over the past three weeks. This Dallas secondary solid particularly on the outside where Reynolds operates.

4 WR Ted Ginn Jr. $4, We got to see Ginn knock the rust off in the week 16 matchup vs the Steelers and he's had a few more weeks to heal up since then. WR Nelson Agholor $4, Agholor has been good for 6-7 targets per game in the Foles era. He gets a matchup vs a Saints Defense giving up the most points per game of any team to opposing WR's. Him and Tate project about the same so its a bit of a coin flip as far as which one is the better play. I think that on a talent basis, Tate is the more talented WR. WR Chester Rogers $3, Rogers is cheap on Draftkings and just a way to get exposure to what should be the highest scoring game of the slate. He's coming off a 5 target game and that seems to be about what we should expect from him in an average game. This matchup with the Chiefs should be somewhat above average as far as the passing volume goes and the GPP hope here is that he can move the needle from 5 targets to around 8 targets which would be plenty to smash his 3700 price point.

5 TE Travis Kelce $7, It's scary how good of a spot this is for Kelce. The Colts play a zone defense that has been brutalized by enemy TE's this season allowing 12.7 DK PPG good for 30th ranked vs the position. They face a whopping 8.3 targets per game to the TE position. Its safe to say its an incredible matchup for Kelce. The chalk stack to start your primary lineup this week should probably be Mahomes and Kelce TE Zach Ertz $5, TE Eric Ebron $5, Saints have actually been solid vs the TE position ranked 7th overall in fantasy points allowed to TE's, Ertz can go off at any time. He's also been crushing lineups as he's underproduced in recent weeks. With Ebron and Kelce in clear better matchups, its hard to look at Ertz as anying other then a pivot off the chalk in the 4 game main slate. I could make a case that Ertz has a higher upside and target floor then Ebron but the matchup for Ebron at a very similar salary is much better, Chiefs Defense is ranked 31'st overall in fantasy points allowed to TE's. They are actually one spot worse then the Colts. Ebron seems to catch a TD every week with his locked in redzone roll but he hasn't exactly been a target monster. Over the past 4 weeks his target counts of 3,5,6 and 6 came with him as basically the only pass catching TE operating for the team. His volume hasn't gone up massively since Doyle went down. We should expect more of what he has been doing but possibly on a elevated level due to the high scoring projection in this game. 6-9 targets in this game and a shot at a touchdown or two would be a ceiling type of game. TE Rob Gronkowski $4, Gronk's incredibly reduced salary and the lack of alternative pass catchers for the Patriots make Gronk actually a mild interesting play. He's still Gronk and this is the playoffs. I would expect him to bring his A game because the Patriots are going to need him if they are going to win this game and make any sort of a run. With the chalk focused on Kelce, Gronk is definitely worth a look in tournaments TE Hunter Henry $2, I'm leaving him here becaue if we had any knowledge that Henry would get a reasonable snap share this would be a great spot for him. POS Player Name TM OPP Salary Proj DEF Rams $3, I would take Dallas laying an egg offensively for Rams Defense to justify the spend up. They aren't generally a turnover prone offense particularly when they are leaning on the run. If they fall behind and have to go to a pass heavy come from behind mode I could see a few turnovers in that scenario DEF Patriots $2, If the Patriots are winning this game they are probably dominating it defensively. Chargers traveled to the East coast last week. Assuming they flew back to LA last week. Now they are traveling across country again. It's not an ideal setup. With no standout must play defenses on this slate this is one of a few paydown options to deploy. DEF Chargers $2, Chargers defense has been solid all season with a large percentage of their scores being double digit this season. Obviously its not ideal to target of the AWAY defense at Foxboro but with limited options on this slate we need to consider which punts are the least bad DEF Cowboys $2, Cowboys are the cheapest viable defense on this slate. I don't love them but with Goff not playing his best in recent weeks theres always a chance that erratic play continues. It's far more likely that Goff will look very good here.