Greening Nordic Ski Team Transportation

Transcription

1 Cuthbert 1 Greening Nordic Ski Team Transportation Robby Cuthbert GEOS 206 5/18/10

2 Cuthbert 2 Introduction With 50% of students at Williams College partaking in a varsity, JV or club sport, the field, court and racecourse are suitable places for teaching sustainable practices. Despite this, the College athletic department pays little attention to green issues, putting sustainable transportation low on its list of priorities. When planning transportation, we have three main considerations: safety, expense and convenience, says Bud Fisher, Head Nordic Ski Coach and Assistant Director of Athletics. If you can accomplish sustainability as well, that s great, but the first three are overwhelmingly more important. Therefore, given the athletic department s current stand on transportation, the pressing question becomes how do we make sustainable transportation safe, relatively inexpensive and convenient? In 2007, varsity athletic team transportation at Williams College, excluding air travel, was responsible for 219 tons of carbon dioxide emissions (White, 2007). With 31 varsity teams at the school, each squad was responsible for emitting, on average, 7.1 tons of CO2. In the season, however, the Nordic ski team emitted 12.5 tons of CO2, close to twice the amount of the average team. Given this large discrepancy in emissions as well as its rather unique travel schedule, the Nordic team is a perfect candidate for exploring the possibilities of more sustainable transportation. This paper seeks to examine sustainable transportation in two parts: First, I examine trends in distance traveled, CO2 emissions and money spent on travel by the ski team over the past two years and then create a model for the season. Second, I use the model of the season to examine possible ways of reducing CO2 emissions while

3 Cuthbert 3 considering cost, expense and convenience. Before going further, however, it is necessary to understand ski team travel habits. Nordic team operation: While most athletic teams at Williams practice at the school and travel via coach bus to competitions or games (Fisher), the ski team utilizes two Chevrolet Express 12- passenger cargo vans (Figure 1) to transport its members to both practice and competition. The team is also rather unique in that, as it is a division I sport, the training season begins in early October and ends in late March. As such, the season lasts approximately one month longer than other winter sports, allowing for more opportunities to travel. Starting in early October, travel is mostly local, with the team using its 12-passenger vans 3-4 days each week for rollerski training. On a typical fall day, each van will travel anywhere from 10 to 50 miles. Towards the end of the fall season, the team occasionally travels to distant locations over thanksgiving break in order to practice on snow. Figure 1. Chevrolet Express 12-passenger van Figure 2. Toyota Sienna minivan Following fall training, the team acquires a Toyota Sienna minivan (Figure 2) that is used to transport skis and waxing supplies to practices and races. Just after Christmas, the team travels with its three vans to Mont Saint Anne, Quebec, as part of an annual

4 Cuthbert 4 training trip. After returning to Williamstown, normal winter practice and races, or carnivals, begin. A typical week in January or February includes three trips to Prospect Mountain for training and one trip to the weekly carnival. Prospect Mountain, located in Woodford, VT, is 23 miles from the Williams College campus and, typically, all three vans are brought to practice. There are six carnivals in total throughout the season, with common destinations being in Vermont, New Hampshire, New York and Maine. Occasionally, there will not be a carnival on a given weekend and the team will travel to another venue in New England. After the second or third carnival, depending on the year, all team members ranked outside of the top six remain in Williamstown over the weekend as part of a development team, taking a school-owned Toyota Sienna to Prospect for training. The race season typically culminates with one or two team members traveling to the NCAA championships. As few team members go to NCAAs and transportation often involves air travel, this trip is not considered in the report. Transportation at other institutions: In order to determine possible approaches to sustainable Nordic team transportation, it is useful to examine how other colleges address the issue. For the most part, all schools take the same approach as Williams, using two larger vehicles to transport the team and a smaller cargo vehicle to transport gear. Teams from Dartmouth and the University of New Hampshire, for example, bring two short buses to races along with a van or U-Haul for skis (Miller). The University of Vermont, on the other hand, drives more efficient diesel-operated Dodge Sprinter vans (Fisher). The Craftsbury-based Green Team also takes this approach. Though expense kept the team from obtaining more efficient vehicles last year, it recently purchased a Sprinter with the hopes of

5 Cuthbert 5 converting it to biodiesel in the future (Briggs). Finally, the Middlebury ski team operates much as the Williams team in terms of 12-passenger cargo vans, yet it has made a concerted effort to work towards sustainability by using a waste-vegetable oil powered pickup truck to haul a cargo trailer (Middlebury). Keeping these approaches in mind, we can begin to consider transportation of the Williams Ski Team itself and how to make it more sustainable. Setting Fall: During the fall training season, ski team travel is limited to local day trips. The most common destinations in 2008 were Pownal, VT, Hancock, MA, Savoy, MA and Petersburg Pass (Figure 3) saw the opening of the new Mt. Greylock auto road, which became another common training spot (Figure 4). Of these destinations, Savoy and Greylock require the most driving (40-55 miles/van round trip), while a trip to Pownal, Hancock or Petersburg Pass results in miles driven per van. Also displayed at the top of Figures 3 and 4 is Prospect Mountain, which is not visited until winter. Figure 3. Local travel in Figure 4. Local travel in 2009.

6 Cuthbert 6 Winter: During the winter, along with trips to Prospect, the team travels throughout New England and into Canada for both races and training trips (Figures 5, 6 and 7). Mont Saint Anne, Quebec, represents the furthest the team travels each year (950 miles/van round trip), while Rumford, ME is the most commonly visited distant race venue (600 miles/van round trip). Apart from Prospect, Middlebury, VT is the closest venue, requiring only 200 miles of round trip driving per van. Figure 5. Winter training and race destinations.

7 Cuthbert 7 Figure 6. Winter training and race destinations. Figure 7: Winter training and race destinations.

8 Cuthbert 8 Methods Trends in ski team travel: Before examining how we might make ski team transportation more sustainable, I examined trends in Nordic team travel. I first compiled data for the and ski seasons and then developed predictions for the season. Data compilation began with reviewing weekly ski team schedules from the past two seasons and determining where the team traveled each day and how many vehicles were used. All information was entered into an excel spreadsheet. Next, I used a report from the Williams College accounting system giving miles driven by the Nordic ski team in the season (see appendix). The report gave miles driven each day during the fall, allowing me to determine driving distances associated with different fall training locations. The report did not, however, indicate miles driven each day during the winter season, giving only a total for the end of the year. As such, I used Google maps to determine the distance to each of the team s winter destinations. To determine the accuracy of the Google maps approach, I compared my calculated total miles driven with the numbers from the accounting report. The accounting report stated that the team drove 16,676 miles from October through March, while my Google maps calculations came out to 16,590 miles. As the two calculations differ by only.5%, this suggests that Google maps is a reasonably accurate way of calculating the team s total miles driven for a given season. Miles driven in the fall of 2008 were easily calculated as distances to each training location were given by the accounting spreadsheet. To determine distance driven during the winter, I used Google maps again. For a model of the

9 Cuthbert 9 upcoming season I assumed that fall 2010 miles would be equivalent to fall 2009 miles, as the Greylock auto road, a popular training location, was open in 2009, but not I also assumed no thanksgiving training trip and an equal number of visits to Prospect as in the season. Using next year s schedule and Google maps once again, I finally determined predicted miles driven for competition. Knowing the number of miles driven by each vehicle on each day, I was able to calculate gallons of gas used, money spent on gas, and tons of CO2 emissions per year. In calculating gas consumption, I assumed 15 MPG for Chevy Express vans (Yahoo Autos) and 21 MPG for the Toyota Sienna minivan (Toyota). Using these numbers, calculations suggest that ski team vans consumed 1007 gallons of gas during the season. This number, though close, is slightly higher than the 975 gallons recorded in the College s accounting system. In calculating money spent on gas, I assumed a price per gallon of $2.05 in , $2.65 in and $2.90 in (EIA). Finally, in order to determine total CO2 emissions for each year, I assumed that one gallon of gas is responsible for emitting 19.4 pounds of CO2 (EPA). Options for reducing CO2 emissions: After examining ski team travel patterns for the past two seasons and making predictions for the season, I analyzed five different options for reducing CO2 emissions associated with transportation in the upcoming year. The five options are: 1) Do not bring the Sienna minivan to practice. 2) Purchase Dodge Sprinter passenger vans instead of Chevy Express vans and continue using the Sienna as it is currently used. 3) Purchase Dodge Sprinter vans and a Pace American Outback trailer in place of the Sienna Minivan. Have one Sprinter pull the trailer. 4) Purchase a Ford Elkhart 24-passenger

10 Cuthbert 10 coach bus and use a Sienna minivan only for training trips and races. 5) Purchase a hybrid minivan. All options assume that the development team continues to use Collegeowned minivans when the rest of the team is away. In order to weigh the benefits and drawbacks of each of these options, I calculated the upfront costs of the vehicles called for by each approach as well as the total driving miles for associated with each option. Using the predicted number of miles for the upcoming season as well as the fuel economy and fuel type of relevant vehicles, I predicted fuel consumption, CO2 emissions and money spent for each option. I then compared these numbers with those that would result if the team decided to continue with its current approach, purchasing two Chevy Express passenger vans and a Toyota Sienna minivan. To perform the above calculations, vehicle prices were assumed as such: Chevy Express- $28,515 (Yahoo Autos), Toyota Sienna- $25,000 (Toyota), Dodge Sprinter- $36,432 (Dodge), Pace American Outback trailer- $3,000, Ford Elkhart Coach- $55,802 (Tesco Bus), Sienna hybrid- $27,000. Furthermore, I estimated fuel economy for a Sprinter without a trailer at 20.2 MPG (Dodge) and at 16 MPG with a trailer. 10 MPG served as the estimated fuel economy for the Elkhart coach (Elkhart Coach Proudly Presents) and 40 MPG was assumed for the Sienna hybrid. Finally, along with an estimated $2.90 for gas in , I assumed diesel prices at $3.00/gallon (EIA) and 22.2 tons of CO2 emissions per gallon of diesel (EPA).

11 Cuthbert 11 Results Trends in ski team travel: The main findings regarding trends in ski team travel in and as well as predictions for the season are represented in table 1. While the season saw many more miles driven (20,260 compared to 16,590) and proportionally more fuel consumed and higher CO2 emissions, slightly more money was spent on gas in Predictions for the season show moderate numbers for miles driven (18,383), fuel consumption and CO2 emissions as well as higher fuel costs in comparison to the previous two seasons. Table 2 shows miles driven by trip type for the past two seasons and predicted values for the upcoming season. Each year, races are responsible for the largest percentage of miles driven (51.5% in , 40.4% in and 48.3% in ). In the season, training trips were the second greatest contributor to total miles driven, followed by trips to Prospect. That order reversed for the season and is expected to remain as such next year (Figure 5). Table 1. Distance traveled, fuel consumption, CO2 emissions and cost by season. Season Miles Fuel consumption gallons CO2 emissions tons Gas cost $ Table 2. Miles driven by trip type and season. Prospect Training Development Season Fall training Trips Races Trips Team

12 Cuthbert Fall training 1% 6% Prospect Trips % 10% 24% 52% 17% Races Training Trips Development Team 18% 41% 26% % 9% 16% 24% 48% Figure 7. Percentage of total miles driven by trip type and season. Options for reducing CO2 emissions Major findings regarding the five options for reducing CO2 emissions are presented in table 3. All approaches would successfully decrease fuel consumption for the season and thus lower both CO2 emissions (Figure 8) and money spent on gas. Emissions and money saved, however, vary greatly from one approach to another. Discussion follows, examining the benefits and drawbacks of each option. Table 3. Summary of results for different travel options. Option Upfront cost $ Miles saved Gas saved gallons CO2 emissions saved (tons) Money saved/year $ Years until payback 3 Vans No practice minivan Dodge Sprinters with minivan Dodge Sprinters with trailer Small Bus with no practice minivan Hybrid minivan

13 Cuthbert CO2 Emissions saved (tons) No practice minivan Dodge Sprinters with minivan Dodge Sprinters with trailer Small bus with no practice minivan Hybrid Minivan Figure 8. Predicted reduction in CO2 emissions for the five options. Discussion In considering travel data from the past two years and predicted numbers for the upcoming season, there are several trends of note. First and foremost, there is a large discrepancy in total miles driven for different years. Miles driven directly predicts gas consumption and CO2 emissions for each season, while money spent is much more dependent on yearly fuel prices. The major discrepancy in miles driven between the and seasons can be explained, in part, by the fact that the ski team took a thanksgiving training trip to Redfield, NY in 2008, but took no such trip in Though this trip accounts for 1,920 extra miles, it is not the main contributor to the mile disparity. Instead, it is the different locations of the and race venues that accounts for most of the discrepancy (Figures 3 and 4). While the season saw three trips to Maine and no home carnival, the farthest venue the team traveled to in was Jackson, NH. Also, there were 8 total race weekends in , while the total number in was 7. Thus, it is the ski team s race

14 Cuthbert 14 schedule that contributes the most to total miles driven and discrepancies between different years. Though the ski team drove farther for training trips and races in , the season actually saw higher mile counts for fall training and winter practice trips to Prospect. The increase in fall training mileage can be attributed to the opening of the Mt. Greylock auto road. Though the road is a farther drive than most other training spots, it became a popular location and the team drove a total of 592 miles to train there in fall The increase in Prospect trip miles can, for the most part, be attributed to earlier snowfall and an extra weekend without a race, both resulting in more trips to Woodford, VT. While race schedules are mostly set and inflexible, practice schedules are not. As fall and winter practices were responsible for 36.5% of total miles driven in and that trend is expected to hold up next year, adjusting practice travel habits is a good starting point for building a commitment to sustainable transportation. No practice minivan: An easy way to modify practice transportation habits is to stop driving the Sienna minivan to Prospect. As skis can easily be loaded into the team s two 12-passenger vans, the minivan is more a matter of comfort than necessity. Taking such action would present the team with the same upfront costs as its current approach, but would result in modest yearly reductions in fuel consumption, CO2 emissions and money spent on gas. Though the predicted reduction of.6 tons of CO2 (5.5% of predicted emissions) may seem small, the modification would hopefully represent the first step in a more concerted effort for sustainable transportation. While it is slightly more convenient to bring the minivan to

15 Cuthbert 15 practice, it is no safer and a bit more expensive than leaving it on campus. Thus, in weighing safety, expense and convenience, there is little reason to bring the Sienna minivan to Prospect. Dodge Sprinters with minivan: Purchasing two new 12-passenger Dodge Sprinter vans (Figure 9) in place of the current Chevy Express vans would result in moderate yearly fuel and money savings as well as reductions in CO2 emissions. However, taking such an approach to transportation would require the college to spend $15,834 more upfront. Given the athletic department s priority of expense over sustainability, the upfront cost inherent in purchasing two new Dodge Sprinters is likely too high for this option to warrant consideration. Unless we can persuade the athletic department to take a more active stance in promoting sustainability, this approach is unrealistic. Figure 9. Dodge Sprinter passenger van. Dodge Sprinters with trailer: This option provides for the cheapest approach to sustainable transportation as well as the greatest reductions in CO2 emissions. As a trailer (Figure 10) pulled by one of the Sprinter vans would be used in place of the minivan, upfront costs are $6,166 cheaper than the current approach. The savings of 2.9 tons of CO2 represent a substantial 26.8%

16 Cuthbert 16 reduction in predicted season emissions. Though this approach is very costeffective, it raises concerns for both safety and convenience. A Dodge Sprinter has a towing capacity of 5,000 lbs (Dodge) and a loaded trailer would weigh no more than 2,000 lbs. However, icy road conditions in the winter would likely make hauling a trailer with a van full of team members unsafe. Considering convenience, not having a minivan would complicate day-of-race travel to a venue. As coaches travel to the race venue early to wax skis, the rest of the team would have to organize rides using one van. Therefore, despite great benefits in terms of CO2 reductions and cost, safety risks and convenience issues make the pursuit of this option unreasonable. Figure 10. Pace American Outback trailer Small bus with no practice minivan: As with the previous option, this approach to more sustainable team transportation is appealing in terms of upfront cost, yearly cost and CO2 emissions saved. The price of one Ford Elkhart 24-passenger coach is, in fact, less than the combined price of two Chevy Express vans and its use would result in a 24.1% reduction in CO2 emissions from predicted levels. Along with being cost effective, the small bus approach (Figure 11) would fulfill the athletic department s requirement for safety (Fisher). Using such a bus would only mildly compromise convenience, as the men s and women s

17 Cuthbert 17 teams, which usually travel to venues at different times the morning of a race, would have to arrive together. These findings are especially important given that the athletic department has previously considered and then passed over the idea of acquiring a small bus due to cost concerns (Fisher). Clearly, reconsideration is warranted. Figure passener Ford Elkhart Coach Hybrid minivan: The final option for greening ski team transportation is more exploratory and hypothetical, as hybrid minivans do not yet exist in the United States. Toyota, however, is said to be working on developing a hybrid version of the Sienna for a 2012 release (hybrid center). While cost and fuel efficiency used for calculations are merely speculation, results suggest that the hybrid option would moderately reduce emissions and yearly transportation costs. Further investigation will be warranted once such vehicles are widely available. Recommendations and Conclusions Given the options explored above, I recommend that Williams College seriously consider acquiring a 24-passenger bus in place of two Chevy Express vans when next purchasing vehicles used by the Nordic ski team. Of the five approaches explored, this

18 Cuthbert 18 one best balances safety, expense, convenience and sustainability. The purchase would be cheaper than buying two vans and would result in a significant reduction in the team s CO2 emissions. If the college rejected this proposal for any reason, the team could still make a concerted effort to reduce its emissions by using the Sienna minivan only for training trips and races. Other approaches, such as renting a coach bus to transport both the Nordic and Alpine teams together to carnivals should not be implemented. This avenue was traveled in the season with unfortunate results, as the alpine, but not Nordic races were delayed one day. The above recommendations operate on the assumption that the athletic department will prioritize expense and convenience over sustainability. If we can change this position, however, an entire new set of options will emerge. For instance, if sustainable practices for athletic team transportation were considered more important, the option of buying two Dodge Sprinter vans in place of the current Chevrolets would become viable. Therefore, future work should concentrate on collaboration with the athletic department to create a policy geared towards sustainable athletic team travel. Along with modifying athletic department policy on sustainability, future work should focus on how the proposed options for greening ski team transportation would affect those who use team vehicles outside of the ski season. During the early fall and spring, team vans are often used by other athletic teams, faculty and students (Fisher). It is likely that adding a 24-passenger bus to Williams fleet of vehicles would prove quite useful, though further study is needed to confirm this. Athletics at Williams College play a major role in shaping the institution s identity. With half of the student body belonging to an athletic team or organization, the

19 Cuthbert 19 field, court and racecourse serve as stages on which to address sustainability issues. Modifying Nordic ski team transportation is just one example of an approach to greener athletic practices. By further addressing sustainability in athletics, Williams College may encourage other institutions to do the same while imparting upon its students enduring messages promoting a sustainable lifestyle. References Cited Briggs, Matt. interview. 14 May Fisher, Bud. Personal interview. 19 April Miller, Katie. interview. 9 May White, Katherine S. & Dethier, David P., Transportation at Williams College: A Luce Foundation Grant Report. Yahoo Autos. Visited 5/17/10. EIA. Visited 5/10/10. EIA. Visited 5/10/10. Elkhart Coach Proudly Presents. Visited 5/9/10. Dodge. Visited 5/9/10. EPA. Visited 5/10/10. Hybrid Center. Visited 5/9/10 Middlebury. Visited 5/9/10. Tesco Bus. Visited 5/9/10. Toyota. Visited 5/9/10.

20 Cuthbert 20 Appendix Table 1. Raw data for miles driven in the season. minivan 1 distance minivan 2 distance Practice Type Place # Vehicles van 1 distance van 2 distance total distance 10/5/08 run 10/6/08 run 10/7/08 run 10/8/08 rollerski 5 corners /9/08 rollerski vt /10/08 run 0 10/11/08 off 0 10/12/08 rollerski petersburg /13/08 run 0 10/14/08 rollerski petersburg /15/08 rollerski bulkley 0 apple orchard /16/08 rollerski 10/17/08 run 0 10/18/08 off 0 10/19/08 rollerski 5 corners /20/08 rollerski pownal /21/08 run 0 10/22/08 time trial whitman road /23/08 run 0 10/24/08 run 0 10/25/08 off 0 10/26/08 rollerski savoy /27/08 run 0 backside 10/28/08 rollerski petersburg /29/08 run 0 time trial petersburg /30/08 10/31/08 run 0 11/1/08 off 0 11/2/08 off 0 11/3/08 rollerski 5 corners /4/08 run 0 11/5/08 rollerski petersburg /6/08 run 0 11/7/08 rollerski bulkley 0 11/8/08 off 0 11/9/08 schnell petersburg /10/08 run 0 11/11/08 rollerski bailey rd /12/08 run 0 11/13/08 rollerski pownal

21 Cuthbert 21 11/14/08 run 0 11/15/08 off 0 11/16/08 rollerski savoy /17/08 run 0 whitmans/ 11/18/08 rollerski bailey rd /19/08 run 0 11/20/08 erg 0 11/21/08 rollerski pownal /22/ /23/ /24/08 0 Salmon 11/25/08 travel Hills /26/08 ski Salmon Hills /27/08 ski Salmon Hills /28/08 ski Salmon Hills /29/08 ski Salmon Hills ski/trav williamsto 11/30/08 el wn /1/08 off 0 12/2/08 rollerski pownal /3/08 run 0 12/4/08 run 0 12/5/08 off 0 12/6/08 rollerski petersburg /7/08 rollerski 5 corners /8/08 reading 0 12/9/08 reading 0 12/10/08 exams 0 12/11/08 exams 0 12/12/08 exams 0 12/13/08 exams 0 12/14/08 exams 0 12/15/08 exams 0 12/16/08 break 0 12/17/08 break 0 12/18/08 break 0 12/19/08 break 0 12/20/08 break 0 12/21/08 break 0 12/22/08 break 0 12/23/08 break 0 12/24/08 break 0 12/25/08 break 0 12/26/08 break 0

22 Cuthbert 22 12/27/08 delay 0 12/28/08 travel quebec /29/08 ski lodge /30/08 ski lodge /31/08 ski lodge /1/09 ski lodge /2/09 ski lodge /3/09 ski lodge /4/09 travel williamsto wn /5/09 off 0 1/6/09 ski prospect /7/09 ski prospect /8/09 ski prospect /9/09 travel jackson /10/09 crit venue /11/09 ski jackson/wil liamstown /12/09 off 0 1/13/09 ski prospect /14/09 ski prospect /15/09 ski prospect /16/09 ski prospect /17/09 travel rumford race/tr venue/willi 1/18/09 avel amstown /19/09 off 0 1/20/09 ski prospect /21/09 ski prospect /22/09 travel rumford /23/09 race venue race/tr venue/willi 1/24/09 avel amstown /25/09 ski prospect /26/09 off 0 1/27/09 ski prospect /28/09 ski prospect /29/09 travel jackson /30/09 race venue race/tr venue/willi 1/31/09 avel amstown /1/09 ski prospect /2/09 ski prospect /3/09 ski prospect /4/09 ski prospect /5/09 off 0 2/6/09 travel stowe /7/09 race venue race/tr venue/willi 2/8/09 avel amstown

23 Cuthbert 23 2/9/09 ski prospect /10/09 off 0 2/11/09 ski prospect travel/s hanover/pr 2/12/09 ki ospect venue/pro 2/13/09 race/ski spect /14/09 races venue/willi amstown/p rospect /15/09 ski prospect /16/09 off 0 2/17/09 ski prospect /18/09 ski prospect /19/09 travel middlebury /prospect /20/09 race venue races/tr venue/han over/willia 2/21/09 avel mstown /22/09 ski prospect /23/09 off 0 2/24/09 ski prospect /25/09 ski prospect 3 0 2/26/09 travel/s ki sugarloaf/ prospect 2 (bus to race) venue/pro 2/27/09 race/ski spect race/tr williamsto 2/28/09 avel wn 1 (bus) /1/09 season over 0 3/2/09 off 0 3/3/09 ski prospect /4/09 ski prospect /5/09 ski prospect /6/09 off 0 3/7/09 ski prospect /8/09 ski prospect /9/09 off 0 travel t o 3/10/09 NCAAs rumford 0

24 Cuthbert 24 Table 2. Raw Data for miles driven in the season. Date 10/5/09 Practice Type ski walk Place # Vehicles van 1 distance van 2 distance minivan 1 distance minivan 2 distance Total distance 10/6/09 rollerski Jones' Nose/ top of greylock /7/09 Run 0 10/8/09 rollerski Hancock elementar y /9/09 Run 0 10/10/09 off 0 schnell top of 10/11/09 run greylock greylock 10/12/09 rollerski both sides /13/09 run 0 Hancock elementar y /14/09 rollerski 10/15/09 rollerski petersburg /16/09 run 0 10/17/09 off 0 10/18/09 rollerski race Jones' Nose /19/09 run 0 10/20/09 run 0 10/21/09 rollerski Jones' Nose/ top of greylock /22/09 run 0 10/23/09 rollerski pownal /24/09 off 0 savoy 10/25/09 rollerski short hill /26/09 run 0 10/27/09 rollerski apple orchard /28/09 run 0 10/29/09 rollerski Jones' Nose/ top of greylock /30/09 rollerski bulkley 0 10/31/09 run 0 11/1/09 rollerski savoy/rive r road /2/09 off 0 11/3/09 run 0 11/4/09 rollerski?

25 Cuthbert 25 11/5/09 rollerski bulkley 0 oblong 11/6/09 crest run road/peter sburg /7/09 off 0 11/8/09 schell hopkins/pe tersburg /9/09 rollerski bulkley 0 11/10/09 rollerski Hancock elementar y /11/09 run 0 11/12/09 rollerski pownal /13/09 erg 0 11/14/09 off 0 11/15/09 run 0 11/16/09 rollerski bulkley 0 11/17/09 run 0 Jones' 11/18/09 rollerski Nose /19/09 rollerski florida /20/09 run 0 11/21/09 rollerski tt whitman rd /22/09 rollerski petersburg /23/09 off 0 thansgi 11/24/09 ving 0 11/25/09 tg 0 11/26/09 tg 0 11/27/09 tg 0 11/28/09 tg 0 11/29/09 tg 0 11/30/09 rollerski Hancock elementar y /1/09 run 0 12/2/09 rollerski bulkley 0 12/3/09 rollerski pownal /4/09 run 0 12/5/09 off 0 12/6/09 ski golf course 0 12/7/09 ski golf course 0 12/8/09 run 0 12/9/09 off 0 12/10/09 erg 0 12/11/09 ski prospect /12/09 ski prospect /13/09 ski prospect /14/09 ski prospect

26 Cuthbert 26 12/15/09 ski prospect /16/09 break 0 12/17/09 break 0 12/18/09 break 0 12/19/09 break 0 12/20/09 break 0 12/21/09 break 0 12/22/09 break 0 12/23/09 break 0 12/24/09 break 0 12/25/09 break 0 12/26/09 break 0 12/27/09 travel quebec /28/09 ski lodge /29/09 ski lodge /30/09 ski lodge /31/09 ski city /1/10 ski lodge /2/10 ski lodge /3/10 travel williamsto wn /4/10 off 0 1/5/10 ski prospect /6/10 ski prospect /7/10 ski prospect /8/10 travel jackson crit 1/9/10 race jackson /10/10 crit race jacksonwilliamsto wn /11/10 off 0 1/12/10 ski prospect /13/10 ski prospect /14/10 travel placid /15/10 race venue/rum ford /16/10 race williamsto wn /17/10 ski prospect/w illiamstown /18/10 off 0 1/19/10 ski prospect /20/10 ski prospect /21/10 travel st. mikes /22/10 race venue /23/10 race williamsto wn /24/10 ski prospect /25/10 off 0

27 Cuthbert 27 1/26/10 ski prospect /27/10 ski prospect /28/10 ski prospect /29/10 ski prospect /30/10 ski prospect /31/10 ski prospect /1/10 ski prospect /2/10 ski prospect /3/10 off 0 2/4/10 ski prospect /5/10 travel stowe /6/10 race venue /7/10 race williamsto wn /8/10 off 0 2/9/10 ski prospect /10/10 ski prospect /11/10 travel stowe /12/10 race/ski venue/pro spect /13/10 races williamsto wn/prospe ct /14/10 ski prospect /15/10 off 0 2/16/10 ski prospect /17/10 ski prospect /18/10 ski prospect /19/10 race prospect /20/10 races prospect /21/10 ski prospect /22/10 off 0 2/23/10 ski prospect /24/10 ski prospect /25/10 travel middlebury /prospect /26/10 race venue race/tr williamsto wn/greyloc 2/27/10 avel k /28/10 off 0 3/1/10 ski prospect /2/10 ski prospect /3/10 ski prospect /4/10 off 0 travel to 3/5/10 NCAAs Steamboat

28 Cuthbert 28 Table 3. Williams College accounting data for miles driven in the season. Resv Start Dt Resv End Dt Vehicle ID Destination Purpose Miles Start Miles End Miles VAN12-C LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-D LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-C LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-D LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-E LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-H LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-E LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-F LOCAL ski VAN12-I LOCAL ski VAN12-D LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-E LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-F LOCAL nordic practice VAN12G LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-E LOCAL nordic VAN12-F LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-I LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-H LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-C LOCAL nordic ski VAN12G LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-G NORDIC SKI nordic ski VAN12-F LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-F LOCAL ski VAN12-F NORDIC SKI nordic ski MINIV-07 NORDIC SKI nordic ski VAN12-A SKI nordic ski VAN12-H LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-C LOCAL nordic ski

29 Cuthbert VAN12-D LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-D LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-E LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-D LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-E LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-D LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-I LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-H LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-D LOCAL nordic ski VAN12-F LOCAL nordic ski MINIV-04 SKI nordic ski MINIV-04 NORDIC SKI nordic ski MINIV-07 HANOVER NH meeting MINIV-04 NORDIC SKI nordic ski Table 4. Raw data for predicted season distances. Miles Lake Placid 1056 Farmington, ME 1890 Stowe 1060 Hanover 795 Middlebury 690 Rumford 1905 Jackson 1485 Fall training Prospect trips 4370 Training trips 2940 Dvlp. Team 500