North American Powertrain Outlook

Transcription

1 IHS AUTOMOTIVE North American Powertrain Outlook UMTRI Focus on the Future Automotive Research Conferences ihs.com Powertrain Strategies for the 21 st Century: Revolution and Evolution Wednesday, July 22, 2015 Jeff Jowett Manager Americas Powertrain Forecasting

2 Presentation Outline Introduction to IHS U.S. Regulatory Overview Global Context Technology Trends N. American Vehicle Production Outlook OEM Profiles Powertrain Dynamics Summary OEM Profiles Summary

3 IHS What We Do We offer information, analytics and expertise to organizations around the world. INFORMATION INFORMATION They depend on our insights to help them make decisions about everything from day-to-day operations to longterm investments. EXPERTISE EXPERTISE ANALYTICS ANALYTICS 3

4 IHS Industries AEROSPACE & DEFENSE CHEMICAL FINANCE TECHNOLOGY 100+ years experience delivering unrivaled news, insight and intelligence on defense and security equipment, markets, industries and risk Over 200 leading industry authorities creating integrated views and analysis across more than 300 chemical markets and 2,000 processes for 95 industries Research on 200+ countries and territories with harmonized indicators from IHS analysts and economists World s largest electronics component database with more than 350 million parts AUTOMOTIVE The world s largest team of automotive analysts with hundreds of experts located in 15 key markets around the world covering the entire automotive value chain ENERGY Extensive Oil & Gas well information on 5.5+ million wells worldwide dating back as far as 1860 MARITIME World s largest maritime database with an information gathering heritage of 250+ years with comprehensive information on all vessels 100 GT and over 4

5 Presentation Outline Introduction to IHS U.S. Regulatory Overview Global Context Technology Trends N. American Vehicle Production Outlook OEM Profiles Powertrain Dynamics Summary OEM Profiles Summary

6 U.S. CAFE and CO 2 Regulations 163 g/mile of CO 2 in 2025 = 54.5 mpg if all CO 2 emissions reductions are achieved with fuel economy technology 49.6 mpg in 2025 (unadjusted) mpg (real world) According to Michael Sivak at UMTRI, the average fuel economy of all vehicles sold in calendar 2014 was 25.3 mpg (real world) 6

7 U.S. CAFE Fuel Economy Status and Targets Car Fleet Source: NHTSA, December 2014 Summary of Fuel Economy Performance 7

8 U.S. CAFE Fuel Economy Status and Targets Truck Fleet Source: NHTSA, December 2014 Summary of Fuel Economy Performance 8

9 Presentation Outline Introduction to IHS U.S. Regulatory Overview Global Context Technology Trends N. American Vehicle Production Outlook OEM Profiles Powertrain Dynamics Summary OEM Profiles Summary

10 Millions North America Engine Technology Trends VVT Gas DI Stop/Start Gas Boosted Cyl Deac Gas-E85 Hybrid-Full Diesel Hybrid-Mild Electric Fuel Cell Source: IHS Automotive May 15, Engine installation into Light Vehicles manufactured in North America 10

11 Millions Higher Ratio Planetary and CVTs Grab the Lions Share of NAFTA Market 25 Design Type By Year % 61% Man EVT DCT CVT A8+ A6/7 A5 AMT 0 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 Source: IHS Automotive May 15, Transmission installation into Light Vehicles manufactured in North America

12 Diesel GDI Hybrid Electric Gas Boosted ICE+S/S Adv Trans AWD / 4WD Global Technology Islands in 2020 Legislation, drive cycle, and consumer choice dictate technology 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% North America South America 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Europe Middle East/Africa % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Greater China 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% South Asia Japan/Korea Source: IHS Automotive

13 U.S. Powertrain Sales Technology Trends 13 13

14 Presentation Outline Introduction to IHS U.S. Regulatory Overview Global Context Technology Trends N. American Vehicle Production Outlook OEM Profiles Powertrain Dynamics Summary OEM Profiles Summary

15 Millions FCA cyl 6 cyl 4 cyl

16 Millions Ford cyl 6 cyl 4 cyl 3 cyl

17 Millions General Motors cyl 6 cyl 4 cyl 3 cyl

18 Millions Honda cyl 4 cyl

19 Millions Hyundai cyl 6 cyl 4 cyl

20 Millions Nissan cyl 6 cyl 4 cyl 3 cyl

21 Millions Toyota cyl 6 cyl 4 cyl 3 cyl

22 Thousands Volkswagen cyl 6 cyl 4 cyl

23 Presentation Outline Introduction to IHS U.S. Regulatory Overview Global Context Technology Trends N. American Vehicle Production Outlook OEM Profiles Powertrain Dynamics Summary OEM Profiles Summary

24 Final Thoughts Legislation is the most significant driver of industry change; this is creating the need for an abundance of new powertrain technologies to be created, refined, and manufactured CAFE and CO 2 regulations are extremely challenging for the U.S. market and some OEM s are already better positioned to meet those regulations than others There isn t one technology that will ultimately allow manufactures to meet the regulations. Whether by segment, or by OEM, there will be many different technology combinations Global powertrain platforms/architectures will continue to proliferate through the forecast horizon driven by competition, speed to market, economies of scale, and fulfilling requirements in both developed and developing markets 24

25 Thank you. Jeff Jowett Manager Americas Powertrain Forecasting IHS Customer Care: Americas: IHS CARE ( ); Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) ; Asia and the Pacific Rim: ; 2014 IHS. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. For more information, please contact IHS at Customer Care (see phone numbers and addresses above). All products, company names or other marks appearing in this publication are the trademarks and property of IHS or their respective owners.