AUTOMOTIVE Global Economic & Truck-Market Overview: The Next Five Years 22 September 2016 Hannover, Germany Andrej Divis, Director, IHS Automotive +1 703 346 2331, Andrej.Divis@ihsmarkit.com
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Index, over 50 signals expansion 3 Markit manufacturing PMIs send mixed signals Purchasing (Index, over managers 50 indicates indexes expansion) 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 United States Eurozone China Japan Sources: Markit 2016 IHS 3
Sep 09 Feb 10 Jul 10 Dez 10 Mai 11 Okt 11 Mrz 12 Aug 12 Jan 13 Jun 13 Nov 13 Apr 14 Sep 14 Feb 15 Jul 15 Dez 15 Mai 16 Millionen Millionen 4 Global Truck Demand: Where To Now? Sales >6T GVW rose rapidly in 2015 and have cooled since Global, annualized sales 2,9 2,7 2,5 2,3 2,1 1,9 1,7 1,5 Excl. China 2,4 2,2 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 World annualized trend (BRIC & Triad) Excl. China
Dollars/barrel 5 Crude-oil prices will gradually recover Price of Dated Brent crude oil 125 100 75 50 25 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: IHS 2016 IHS 5
IHS weekly indexes, 2002:1=1 6 Industrial materials prices rebound but remain low IHS Materials Price Index 6 5 4 3 2 1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 All industrial materials Chemicals Nonferrous metals Source: IHS 2016 IHS
Percent change 7 Emerging markets will lead a pickup in global growth Real GDP 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 World Advanced countries Emerging markets Source: IHS 2016 IHS 7
Annual percent change 8 Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) to expand fastest Real GDP 6 4 2 0-2 NAFTA Other Americas Western Europe Emerging Europe Mideast- N. Africa Sub- Saharan Africa Japan Other Asia- Pacific 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 23 Source: IHS 2016 IHS
9 As goes the Economy, so go New-Truck Sales Economic output vs. new-truck sales for selected countries (logarithmic scale) rising newtruck sales 44k 8k 3k 1k Larger economy
10 Expansion Will Accelerate World Freight Demand Rise IHS World Industry Service (WIS): Gross freight transport, in real $US bn. 5.000 4.500 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 5-year avg: CAGR 3.4% 2.1% 2.7% 3.1% 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
11 In Quantity, Land Transport Will Rise Most IHS World Industry Service (WIS): Gross freight transport, rise in real $US bn. Land transport +19% by 2021 Pipeline Water Air $0 $100 $200 $300 $400
Millionen 12 Truck Sales to Hit New High in 2019, 3.0m in 2021 Global >6T GVW truck sales, forecast in total and by region 3,0 2,9 2,8 2,7 2,6 2,5 3,00 +0.5m EE 14% NA 10% MEA 1% WE 12% SA 6% of the growth APAC 57% 2,4 2,47
Millionen Millionen 13 Majority of Rise Accrues to Heavies in APAC Different growth picture for medium-duties, w/ other regions having larger role 2,5 6-15T sales >15T sales 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 2,0 1,5 1,0 SA APAC 0,5 0,0 0,5 0,0 NA EE WE
14 BRIC-Market Share to Remain Below 50% %share of >6T GVW global truck sales of Brazil, China, India and Russia 80% 70% Peak share of 67% of global sales 60% 50% 50% 40% 46% 30%
Tausende 15 Truck sales by OEM Group (2010-21) Top 15 OEMs (2015) will enjoy much but not all of 0.5m f cast unit-sales rise 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2015
Millionen 16 Production Increases Proportionately With Sales 3,3 3,2 3,1 3,0 2,9 2,8 2,7 >6T global output incl.kits 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% SA NA EE WE APAC
17 Plant Utilization Improves, But Overcapacity Persists Recovering from crisis, mature markets have seen sharp reductions in plants 120 >6T truck plant count Production capacity utilization 80 70% 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 18 Model Renewal Accelerates OEMs on track to replace or renew larger %volume in 2011-20 than 2001-10 14 12 New programs (Triad) By 2020 ½ of Triad sales new vs. 2011 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dutro Kazet Giga 10 8 6 Actros FH XF FM T-Series C/K-Series Antos Arocs Daily D-Series Elite 6 VNX R-Series S-Series 4 2 0 4700 T680 579 220 K270 567 T880 F650-750 WS.5700 Ch. COE F450/550 HX LT Cascadia
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Tausende 20 Bus Demand Reflects Population & Urbanization Rise Unlike trucks, global medium- and large-bus segment has not seen downturn 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Regional bus builds (>6T) 5-year avg: CAGR 1.6% SA APAC NA EE WE Bus fleet size vs. %urban pop. BE CH UK ES RU TK 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
21 Conclusions Current year is seeing a slowdown in economic growth and freight tonnage growth, resulting in a decline in global truck sales in recent months, after strong YTD; however, full-year sales projection remains up on 2015, about 3% y/y higher, led by China & India. North & South America down. Despite shaky YTD truck selling rates in many markets and mixed economic data, prospects are good for an acceleration in economic growth in 2017 and 2018 (healthy household finances). Global truck sales in 2017 forecasted up 4% y/y to 2.6m Truck-sales growth will be driven by ongoing recovery in most of the BRICs as well as solid upward momentum in Western Europe Big OEM players will benefit most, but some smaller OEMs will gain disproportionately Production will rise too, also about 3% in 2016-17, returning utilization in the triad to relatively healthy levels; however, rest-of-world utilization still suffers from overcapacity. The bus sector has seen less volatility than the truck market, and bus-market fundamentals are healthy for the medium- term. Buses reach pre-crisis levels in 2017-18 and new record by 2021.
22 Further Down the Road
23 Thank you