16 November OIL MARKET REPORT OCTOBER EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In October crude oil market caught a bear flu after almost gripping the $90 per barrel price level (Brent). In the beginning of October the market apparently priced in quite a lot of risks regarding U.S. threats to zero Iran s oil exports. On the second week of the month these risks suddenly started easing. It seems all the September s rally was highly speculative in nature indeed. U.S. granted 8 countries 6-months waivers on November 2, including India, South Korea, Japan and China. It was surprising for the market given several months of very aggressive rhetoric. It was believed to be a political move, to put downward pressure on oil prices, taken just days before Americans headed to the polls in mid-tern elections on the 6 th of November. Interestingly the European Union, which recently announced the creation of an economic channel to continue financial dealings with Iran, was not among those receiving waivers. However, oil exports from Iran to EU had been lowered below 100 thsd bbl / d already. China and India are much more important in this matter. OPEC signaled it could cut output in 2019 due to concerns about rising oil inventories and economic uncertainty, lurching away from a pledge made just days ago to pump flat out. A committee of producers including Russia and Saudi Arabia highlighted the next day after mid-term elections the need to prepare options for how much oil they should pump next year to prevent the market slipping back into imbalance. The group, which since May has been boosting production, said the rise in oil inventories in recent weeks coupled with fears about an economic slowdown may require changing course. Global oil markets are going through a very sensitive period - global economic growth as well, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in an interview in London on the day of OPEC changing its rhetoric. If the oil producers care about the health of the growth of the global economy, which I believe they do, they should take the steps to further comfort the market. The outlook for next year is very unpredictable, according to Saudi Energy Minister Al- Falih. If the supply is too long, we should be able to cut, he said in an interview with Russia s TASS news agency. If supply is short, we have to be able to respond. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that U.S. crude production will average 12.06 mln bbl / d in 2019, passing the 12 mln bbl / d milestone much sooner than expected, largely on the back of increased shale oil production from the Permian basin. In 2019, the EIA said it expected production to increase 1.16 mln bbl / d from the prior year, up from the previous 1.02 mln bbl / d earlier forecast. Growing U.S. oil production and eased geopolitical risks are the main drivers of oil price unstoppable falling from maximum levels. If numbers at the end of November show stable Iran s exports in spite of U.S. sanctions then the price will likely return to $60-70 per barrel trade range. 1 / 30
1. MARKET PERFORMANCE In October crude oil market caught a «bear flu» after almost gripping the $90 per barrel price level (Brent). In the beginning of October the market priced in apparently quite a lot of risks regarding U.S. threats to zero Iran s oil exports. On the second week of the month these risks suddenly started easing. It seems all the September s rally was highly speculative in nature indeed. Effective monthly trade range of Brent spot price skyrocketed to $12.2 per bbl (15.2% to the average price of $80.5) in October. Average price was just 2% above September level when effective trade range was just $6.6 per barrel. In the end of October the price finally broke through $80 resistance. Both crude oil futures curve for Brent and WTI are in long-term backwardation, but shortterm futures are in contango now. By the end of the month, 12-months futures to spot spread in Brent crude oil increased by $4.2 per bbl to -$0.1 per bbl. 1-month Brent futures to spot surged to $1.2 per bbl, 3-month futures to spot spread also increased by $2.4 per bbl to $1.2. WTI 3-2-1 crack spreads deteriorated in October to $15.2 per bbl, 14.9% below end- September level. Brent 3-2-1 crack spread surged by 105.1% to $10.9 per bbl. Tapis 3-2-1 crack spread increased by 20.5% to $9.4 per bbl. Discount of WTI benchmark to Brent narrowed to the $8.6 per barrel level after trading close to $10 per barrel level for a while. Chart 1.1. Brent crude oil price performance over last 2 months, $ per bbl 88.0 86.0 84.0 82.0 80.0 78.0 76.0 74.0 72.0 September October 2 / 30
Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Chart 1.2. Brent crude oil price performance over last 12 months, $ per bbl Chart 1.3. Contango (+) / backwardation (-) in Brent crude oil futures, $ per bbl 85.0 80.0 75.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0 70.0-2.0 65.0-3.0 60.0 55.0 50.0 Brent crude oil spot price -4.0-5.0-6.0-7.0 1-month futures 3-months futures 12-months futures Chart 1.4. Crude oil benchmarks premium (+) / discount (-) over Brent crude oil, $ per bbl Chart 1.5. Crude oil 321 crack spread, $ per bbl 6.0 4.0 2.0 30.0 25.0 WTI Crack Spread Tapis Crack Spread Brent Crack Spread 0.0-2.0-4.0 20.0 15.0-6.0 10.0-8.0-10.0-12.0 WTI Tapis Arab Light ESPO 5.0 0.0 3 / 30
OPEC Algeria Angola Ecuador Gabon Iran Iraq Kuwait Libya Nigeria Qatar Saudi Arabia U.A.E. Venezuela 2. OPEC PRODUCTION According to Bloomberg assessments, total OPEC oil production in October increased by 430 thsd bbl / d to 33.33 mln bbl / d. The largest decrease this month in OPEC oil production was made by Kuwait (-40 thsd bbl / d), while export countries with substantially increasing output were Libya (+170 thsd bbl / d) and Saudi Arabia (+150 thsd bbl / d). From a y-o-y basis in October the cartel total output marked the increase in production by 780 thsd bbl / d. Saudi Arabia demonstrated the most annual crude oil production growth (+670 thsd bbl / d or 6.7%), followed by Iraq (+340 thsd bbl / d or +7.8%) and Libya (+240 thsd bbl / d or 24.5%). The most significant annual production decrease was observed in struggling Venezuela (-590 thsd bbl / d or -31.7%). Angola (-10.5%) and Iran (-10.2%) also produced considerably less crude oil in October than a year ago. In comparison with September OPEC oil output figures by Bloomberg, EIG evaluated total OPEC production equal to 32.78 mln bbl / d (17 thsd bbl / d below Bloomberg s assessment). In particular EIG printed significantly higher numbers for Iran (+272 thsd bbl / d) and Angola (+41 thsd bbl / d) relative to Bloomberg ones. Considerable downward assessments were made for Venezuela, U.A.E. and Nigeria crude oil output (-74 thsd bbl / d, -68 thsd bbl / d and -47 thsd bbl / d versus Bloomberg). Chart 2.1. OPEC crude oil output, thsd bbl / d Chart 2.2. Different assessments of OPEC crude oil output in the previous month 35,000 34,000 33,000 (Bloomberg) (EIG) 200 150 100 50 The difference between Bloomberg (+) and EIG (-) estimates, thsd bbl / d 32,000 0 31,000-50 30,000-100 29,000, EIG, EIG In accordance with EIG figures, in September OPEC as a whole increased its share in a world crude oil output by 50 bps to 38.7%. Comparing to a year ago level it is lower by 159 bps. The lost in market share does not look dramatic given appreciation in crude oil price. OPEC has finally got some success. Brent crude oil price has been above $80 per barrel for a while now. The problem is many exporting countries could return to market share competition given this high level of prices and tensions around Iran. Pace of growth in demand is still substantially above average and stocks have already been lowered significantly. 4 / 30
Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Chart 2.3. OPEC crude oil production structure, by country Chart 2.4. OPEC share, as % of world crude oil production U.A.E. 9.5% Venezuela 3.9% Algeria 3.3% Ecuador Angola 1.6% Gabon 0.5% 4.7% Iran 10.4% 42.0% 41.5% 41.0% 40.5% Non-OPEC Saudi Arabia 32.5% Iraq 14.3% 40.0% 39.5% 39.0% 38.5% Qatar 1.9% Nigeria 5.5% Libya 3.7% Kuwait 8.4% 38.0% 37.5% 37.0% OPEC Source: EIG In October the Bloomberg estimated OPEC s total spare capacities at roughly 2.315 mln bbl / d. Assessment of Venezuela s capacities was finally lowered by 570 thsd bbl / d in January. About 80% of OPEC s potential to ramp up crude oil production is located in just 5 states, namely Saudi Arabia (820 thsd bbl / d or 35.0% of total), Venezuela (170 thsd bbl / d or 7.0% of total), Kuwait (240 thsd bbl / d or 10.0% of total), Iran (580 thsd bbl / d or 25.0% of total) and Angola (180 or 8.0%). Chart 2.5. OPEC crude oil spare capacities structure, by country Chart 2.6. Nigeria & Libya oil production disruptions, thsd bbl / d Venezuela 7.3% U.A.E. 1.3% Saudi Arabia 35.4% Algeria 3.5% Angola 7.8% Ecuador 1.5% Kuwait 10.4% Qatar Nigeria Libya 1.3% 3.5% -0.9% Gabon 1.7% Iran 25.1% Iraq 0.4% 2,000 1,800 Nigeria spare capacities 1,600 Libya spare capacities 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 OPEC s free capacities increased in October comparing to September numbers by 560 thsd bbl / d. Nigeria lost 200 thsd bbl / d in its May s estimation of oil production capacity. Qatar s capacities fell by 140 thsd bbl / d and Venezuela s estimated capacities were lowered by other 70 thsd bbl / d in October. However, Venezuela s abilities to produce crude oil could be limited even lower in the nearest future by even 1 mln bbl / d. OPEC capacities are about to shrink not only because of Venezuela troubles, but agreed production growth. It concerns the market due to risks of potential supply outages. 5 / 30
Chart 2.7. Algeria crude oil output, thsd bbl / d Chart 2.8. Angola crude oil output, thsd bbl / d 1,400 1,300 2,000 1,900 1,200 1,800 1,700 1,100 1,600 1,000 1,500 900 Chart 2.9. Iran crude oil output, thsd bbl / d 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 Chart 2.11. Kuwait crude oil output, thsd bbl / d 1,400 Chart 2.10. Iraq crude oil output, thsd bbl / d 5,000 4,750 4,500 4,250 4,000 3,750 3,500 3,250 3,000 2,750 2,500 Chart 2.12. Libya crude oil output, thsd bbl / d 3,200 3,100 1,600 1,400 3,000 1,200 2,900 2,800 2,700 1,000 800 600 400 2,600 200 2,500 0 6 / 30
Chart 2.13. Nigeria crude oil output, thsd bbl / d Chart 2.14. Saudi Arabia crude oil output, thsd bbl / d 2,500 2,300 11,000 10,750 10,500 2,100 10,250 1,900 10,000 9,750 1,700 9,500 1,500 9,250 9,000 1,300 8,750 Chart 2.15. U.A.E. crude oil output, thsd bbl / d Chart 2.16. Venezuela crude oil output, thsd bbl / d 3,200 2,400 3,100 2,200 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 2,500 1,200 7 / 30
3. NON-OPEC PRODUCTION According to the most recent EIG assessments of worldwide crude oil production, total crude oil output in non-opec states increased in September to 51.623 mln bbl / d (+880 thsd bbl / d). Comparing to the reference level in October 2016 (48.893 mln bbl / d) non- OPEC production was higher by about 2.73 mln bbl / d. The most considerable production growth in September relative to the previous month among the non-opec oil producing countries was achieved in the USA (+149 thsd bbl / d), Brazil (+96 thsd bbl / d), the U.K. (+169 thsd bbl / d) and Russia (+105 thsd bbl / d), while Canada, Mexico and India made a main cutback with oil output reduce of 4, 11 and 12 thsd bbl / d respectively. The same time from the longer-term point of view (in terms of y-o-y) non-opec crude oil output in September increased by almost 2.891 mln bbl / d or 5.9% with the U.K. (+257 thsd bbl / d or +26.9% yoy), Canada (+188 thsd bbl / d or +4.9% yoy) and the USA (+1608 thsd bbl / d or +16.8% yoy) being the main drivers of this positive tendency. This output growth was partly offset by annual production decline in Brazil (-35 thsd bbl / d or -1.3%) and Egypt (-15 thsd bbl / d or -2.5%). Chart 3.1. Non-OPEC crude oil output, thsd bbl / d Chart 3.2. Non-OPEC crude oil production structure, by country 52,000 51,000 50,000 Russia. 22.0% USA. 21.7% 49,000 48,000 47,000 46,000 45,000 Others. 22.0% United Kingdom. Norway. Mexico. 2.3% 3.0% 3.5% Other Ex- USSR. 5.2% Brazil. 5.1% China. 7.3% Canada. 7.8% Source: EIG Source: EIG USA Crude oil production in the USA climbed in October (up to last date) by 25 thsd bbl / d in comparison with September data and increased by 1813 thsd bbl / d or 19.6% in comparison with October figures. According to the most recent EIG data, the USA was accounted for 13.27% of global crude oil output in September that is 107 bps higher now relative to the local maximum of 12.20% printed in February 2015. The same time natural gas liquids (NGL) production in the USA in October climbed by 85 thsd bbl / d or 2.0% on the month-to-month basis and increased by 656 thsd bbl / d or 17.5% on the yearon year basis. Crude oil net imports from the US in October decreased by 7.9% mom to a bit more than 5 bn bbl /d, while crude oil exports surging to 2.26 mln bbl / d comparing to 2.14 mln bbl / d in September. Oil products exports from the USA in October increased by 104 thsd bbl / d and the net imports of refined oil products fell by 633 thsd bbl /d. 8 / 30
Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Chart 3.3. USA crude oil production, thsd bbl / d Chart 3.4. The share of the USA in oil production, % 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 22.0 21.0 20.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 19.0 18.0 17.0 16.0 US crude output, as % of non- OPEC output US crude output, as % of world output (r.h.s.) 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 Source: EIG Chart 3.5. USA crude oil net import, thsd bbl / d Chart 3.6. USA crude oil export, thsd bbl / d 9,000 8,500 3,000 2,500 8,000 2,000 7,500 7,000 1,500 6,500 1,000 6,000 500 5,500 Chart 3.7. USA NGL production, thsd bbl / day 0 Chart 3.8. USA oil processing gain, thsd bbl / day 5,000 1,250 4,500 1,200 4,000 1,150 3,500 3,000 1,100 2,500 2,000 1,050 1,000 9 / 30
Chart 3.9. USA oil product net import, thsd bbl / d Chart 3.10. USA oil product export, thsd bbl / d 0-500 6,500 6,000-1,000 5,500-1,500 5,000-2,000 4,500-2,500 4,000-3,000 3,500-3,500 3,000-4,000 2,500 Total production of shale oil in the USA marked the decline by 21 thsd bbl / d in October and on the year-on-year basis it was higher by 20.4% or 1313 thsd bbl / d, according to last data from consultant agency Rystad Energy. Only the Permian basin marked growth in October. Bakken crude oil production in October decreased on month-to-month by 1.7% and rose by +9.3% on year-on-year basis. Eagle Ford deposit in October declined by 10 thsd bbl / d and crude oil extraction in October was 5.6% higher than a year ago. Permian crude oil production in October increased by 0.4% on month-to-month basis and the growth on year-on-year basis was 35.9%. Chart 3.11. USA rigs and wells spudded Chart 3.12. Shale oil production, as % of total US crude oil output 850 800 750 700 Rigs Wells spudded per rig (r.h.s.) 1.80 1.70 1.60 72.0 70.0 68.0 650 600 1.50 66.0 64.0 550 500 450 1.40 1.30 62.0 60.0 400 1.20 58.0 Source: Rystad Energy, Bloomberg 10 / 30
Chart 3.13. USA shale oil production by regions, thsd bbl / d 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Others Marcellus Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Source: Rystad Energy, Bloomberg Chart 3.14. USA crude oil output, thsd bbl / d Chart 3.15. Canada crude oil output, thsd bbl / d 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 7,500 3,000 7,000 Source: EIG Chart 3.16. Mexico crude oil output, thsd bbl / d 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 Source: EIG 2,800 Source: EIG Chart 3.17. Brazil crude oil output, thsd bbl / d 3,100 2,900 2,700 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 Source: EIG 11 / 30
Chart 3.18. Russia crude oil output, thsd bbl / d Chart 3.19. China crude oil output, thsd bbl / d 11,600 11,400 11,200 11,000 10,800 10,600 10,400 Source: EIG Chart 3.20. UK crude oil output, thsd bbl / d 4,500 4,400 4,300 4,200 4,100 4,000 3,900 3,800 3,700 3,600 3,500 Source: EIG Chart 3.21. Norway crude oil output, thsd bbl / d 1,300 1,200 2,000 1,900 1,100 1,800 1,000 900 800 700 600 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 500 1,300 400 Source: EIG 1,200 Source: EIG 12 / 30
Q2-2015 Q3-2015 Q4-2015 Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2019 Q2-2019 Q3-2019 Q4-2019 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 IEA FORECAST IEA FORECAST 4. DEMAND Global In September IEA presented its world oil demand estimations for the 2 nd quarter of. According to the numbers total world demand for oil in the 2 nd quarter increased by 430 thsd bbl / d or 0.4% over against the 1 st quarter of. Comparing to the 2 nd quarter of global demand for oil grew by 750 thsd bbl / d or 0.8%, partly encouraged by still strong world economic growth. The main source of global oil demand growth in the latest EIA reported quarter was non-oecd countries whose aggregate demand raised by 1.21 mln bbl / d (+2.4% qoq), while the demand from OECD states soften by 780 thsd bbl / d (- 1.6% qoq). On the year-on-year basis non-oecd countries in the 2 nd quarter of showed less pace of growth of 1.3%. As for demand from single states and regions, the most significant demand shrinkage in the 2 nd quarter was observed in Japan, where demand for oil dropped by 850 thsd bbl / d (- 19.9% qoq / -4.5% yoy). Also negative demand tendencies had a place in Korea (-80 thsd bbl / d or -3.0% qoq). The same time among the OECD states in the 2 nd quarter of demand for crude oil increased in Canada by 40 thsd bbl / d (+1.7% qoq / 0.0% yoy), in the USA by 20 thsd bbl / d (+0.1% qoq, +1.2% yoy) and in Mexico by 30 thsd bbl / d (+1.5% qoq, -0.5% yoy). In the considering period there was also quite strong demand for crude oil in China, where oil consumption grew by 300 thsd bbl / d or 2.3% qoq (+2.7% yoy). For, global demand growth forecast is lowered to 1.28 mln bbl / d in last IEA outlook. In 2019 growth accelerates slightly to 1.36 mln bbl / d, but there are risks to the forecast from escalating trade disputes. Demand growth for 2019 was revised lower by 110 thsd bbl / d and demand growth could cool down further later this year and into 2019. Chart 4.1. World oil demand yoy change, mln bbl / d 2.50 Chart 4.2. Regional oil demand yoy change, mln bbl / d 2.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 1.50 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.00-0.50-1.00 Non-OECD OECD World 0.00-0.50-1.00 India China Japan USA Europe World 13 / 30
Chart 4.3. World oil demand structure, by region Chart 4.4 World crude oil demand, mln bbl / d Non-OECD Middle East Non-OECD 8.7% - Latin America 6.5% Non-OECD - Africa 4.4% OECD - North America 25.8% 102.0 100.0 98.0 96.0 Non-OECD - Asia 27.6% OECD - Europe 14.4% 94.0 92.0 Non-OECD - FSU 4.7% OECD - Pacific 7.8% 90.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Chart 4.5. OECD oil demand structure, by country Chart 4.6. Non-OECD oil demand structure, by country Korea Japan3.0% 4.0% Other Europe 16.5% GE, FR, UK, IT, SP 9.5% Other Pacific 8.9% USA 23.6% Other Americas 29.5% Canada Mexico 2.8% 2.4% Middle East 15.8% Other Latin America 11.8% Brazil 5.4% Africa 8.0% Other Asia 16.7% FSU 8.6% China 24.4% India 9.1% China Last data for China apparent demand in Bloomberg is for September. Total apparent demand for oil in China in September surged on y-o-y basis by about 987 thsd bbl / d or 8.8%. The import of crude oil to China in September decreased to 37.21 mln metric tons (equals to 8.8 mln bbl / d) according to China's General Administration of Customs. The data includes imports from small independent refineries (teapots). Annually the import rose by 0.5%. China exported 4.07 mln metric tons of oil products (equals to 0.95 mln bbl / d). The annual growth was 6.5%. Net import of oil products was almost 1.15 mln metric tons in September, consequently lower by 1.5 mln metric tons. Chinese interest to SUV vehicles was encouraged by retail gasoline price fall in 2015 and still has been standing at the rather high levels. Overall in -18 SUV sales have stayed constantly above 600 thsd vehicles. The pace of growth of these gas-guzzlers in China 14 / 30
looks strong, comparing to prior years. In September 873 thsd SUV vehicles were sold. The same time apparent demand for oil products in September mostly increased due to rising in Diesel (7.8% m-o-m), Fuel Oil (+20.0% m-o-m) and Gasoline (+10.4% y-o-y) demand. Chart 4.7. Chinese apparent oil demand, thsd barrels per day 4,500 Apparent diesel fuel demand, kbd Apparent gasoline demand, kbd 11,900 4,000 Total apparent oil demand, kbd (r.h.s.) 11,400 3,500 10,900 3,000 10,400 2,500 9,900 2,000 9,400 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Customs General Administration PRC, Bloomberg Chart 4.8. Annual changes in Chinese apparent oil demand, thsd bbl / d Chart 4.9. Chinese SUVs sales, thsd vehicles 2000 1500 Historical range Historical average 1400 1200 1000 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 1000 800 500 600 0 400 200-500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Customs General Administration PRC, Bloomberg Source: China Passenger Car Association, Bloomberg 15 / 30
Chart 4.10. China crude oil net imports Vs net exports of gasoline & diesel 2,500 2,000 1,500 Net exports of gasolione, '000 tons Net exports of diesel, '000 tons Net imports of crude oil, '000 tons (r.h.s.) 45,000 40,000 35,000 1,000 30,000 500 25,000 0 20,000 Source: Customs General Administration PRC, Bloomberg 16 / 30
5. INVENTORIES Pursuant to the most recent IEA monthly report, total OECD commercial oil stocks were lower in June (the last reported month on oil stocks) by 7 mln bbl / d at 2.82 bn bbl. Crude oil inventories tumbled by 23.2 mln bbl (-2.1% mom), while total OECD products stocks rose by 17.1 mln bbl (+1.2% mom). The same time in comparison with a year ago figures total OECD commercial oil stocks in June were lower by 195.6 mln bbl or 6.5% with crude oil stocks decreased by 114.5 mln bbl (-9.5% yoy) and oil products stocks fell by 87.9 mln bbl (-5.9% yoy). From the standpoint of the regional structure of oil inventories the weakest situation in June was observed in Pacific region, where crude inventories declined by 0.6 mln bbl (-0.4%) mom though oil products in stocks increased by 2.5 mln bbl (+1.5%) mom. In Europe crude oil stocks tumbled m-o-m by 1.1 mln bbl or 0.3% and fell by 7.4 mln bbl or 2.0% y-o-y, while stocks of refined oil products increased by 0.7 mln bbl (+0.1%) on m-o-m and decreased by 44.6 mln bbl (-7.9%) on y-o-y basis. Stocks of crude oil in Americas region in June fell by 21.5 mln bbl (-3.6%) in m-o-m, refined oil products stocks increased by 14.0 mln bbl (+2.0%) in m-o-m. As for the by-product inventories structure, the increase in OECD inventories in June was noticed in Distillates that stocks added 2.4 mln bbl (+0.5% mom). The smallest stocks decrease took place in Gasoline that OECD inventories were lower by 4.7 mln bbl (-1.2%) on month-to-month basis. Fuel oil in OECD stocks fell by 4.7 mln bbl (-3.9%). To sum these all up we should conclude that global oil inventories in highly developed states (OECD) are still on quite elevated levels although oil stocks have finally showed significant draw downing, especially in the USA due to higher exports to Far East Asia. Chart 5.1. OECD oil stocks structure, by country Chart 5.2. OECD oil stocks structure, by product Crude oil 44.0% Europe 2.8% Americas 70.4% Gasoline 15.1% Pacific 26.8% Other refined products 15.6% Heavy fuel 4.7% Middle distillates 20.7% 17 / 30
Chart 5.3. OECD crude oil stocks, mln bbl Chart 5.4. OECD oil products stocks, mln bbl 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,350 950 1,300 900 Chart 5.5. Americas (OECD) crude oil stocks, mln bbl 1,250 Chart 5.6. Americas (OECD) oil products stocks, mln bbl 800 750 700 850 800 650 750 600 550 700 500 450 650 400 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 600 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Chart 5.7. Europe (OECD) crude oil stocks, mln bbl Chart 5.8. Europe (OECD) oil products stocks, mln bbl 400 380 360 630 610 590 570 340 550 320 300 530 510 490 280 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 470 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 18 / 30
Chart 5.9. Pacific (OECD) crude oil stocks, mln bbl Chart 5.10. Pacific (OECD) oil products stocks, mln bbl 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 195 190 185 180 175 170 165 160 150 155 140 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec USA According to DOE s weekly data total commercial crude oil stocks in the USA in October (up to date) rose by 22.0 mln bbl or 5.5% comparing to the prior month. Crude oil inventories are 53.0 mln bbl lower than 479 mln bbl printed in December 2016. Crude oil stocks in October were 28.9 mln bbl (or -6.4%) lower than they had been a year ago. As for crude oil inventories in Cushing oil storage in Oklahoma, they were 7.4 mln bbl or 30.1% higher in October than prior month and 32.0 mln bbl or 50.1% lower than a year ago. US gasoline inventories in October fell by 9.1 mln bbl or -3.8% mom and inventories of distillates decreased by 9.8 mln bbl or 7.2% mom. In comparison with the figures a year ago gasoline and distillates stocks rose by 13.3 mln bbl (+6.3%) and fell by 2.6 mln bbl (- 2.0%) respectively. Chart 5.11. US commercial crude oil stocks, mln bbl Chart 5.12. US commercial crude oil stocks, days of supply 550 500 38 36 34 450 32 30 400 28 26 350 24 22 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 20 19 / 30
Chart 5.13. US gasoline stocks, mln bbl Chart 5.14. US gasoline stocks, days of supply 270 260 55 50 250 240 45 230 40 220 35 210 200 30 190 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 25 Chart 5.15. US distillate fuel stocks, mln bbl Chart 5.16. US distillate fuel stocks, days of supply 180 170 32 30 160 150 28 140 26 130 24 120 110 22 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 20 Chart 5.17. US kerosene stocks, days of supply Chart 5.18. US propane stocks, days of supply 36 34 140 120 32 100 30 28 26 80 60 24 40 22 20 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 20 / 30
Chart 5.19. Cushing Oklahoma crude oil stocks, mln bbl 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Floating storage According to Bloomberg Energy assessments in October total crude oil stocks stored on floating storages (including oil in transportation) was equal to 108.5 mln bbl, 12.6 mln bbl less than in September (-10.4% mom) and 54.5 mln bbl less than a year ago (-33.5% yoy). The most significant drop on the month-to-month basis took place in Middle East Gulf (-13.7 mln bbl or -51.6%) and Venezuela (-5.1 mln bbl or -44.7%). From the year-on-year basis the most dramatic drop was observed in South East Asia (-17.6 mln bbl or 38.6%), while floating storages inventories in Japan + Korea and Venezuela increased on 1.4 mln bbl and 1.3 mln bbl respectively (+23.0% and +27.4% respectively). The same time total stocks of refined oil products stored on floating storages (including oil products in transportation) in September climbed to 79.8 mln bbl, 0.1 mln bbl more than in the previous month (+0.1% mom) and at the same level as a year ago. South East Asia (+1.6 mln bbl) and North West Europe (-1.4 mln bbl) were the regions where refined oil stocks grew and dropped the most relative to September figures. Chart 5.20. Crude oil stocks held on floating storages structure, by country Chart 5.21. Refined oil products stocks held on floating storages structure, by country Middle East Gulf 11.9% South East Asia 25.7% Mediterra nean 15.0% China North 4.7% West Europe 4.7% South East Asia 18.7% West Africa 18.9% Mediterran ean 18.6% Middle East Gulf 9.7% India 6.2% U.S. Atlantic Coast 0.7% Australia + New Zealand 2.6% Japan + Venezuela Korea 5.8% 6.9% West Africa 9.2% U.S. Gulf Coast 6.7% U.S. Atlantic Coast 0.7% Japan + Korea Venezuela 3.7% 1.8% China 3.8% North West Europe 5.1% Australia + New Zealand 8.9% India 6.0% U.S. Gulf Coast 3.9% Energy Energy 21 / 30
Chart 5.22. Global crude oil floating storage, mln bbl Chart 5.23. Global refined oil floating storage, mln bbl 230 210 95 190 170 85 150 75 130 110 65 90 70 55 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 45 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Energy Energy Chart 5.24. China + Japan + Korea crude oil floating storage, mln bbl Chart 5.25. China + Japan + Korea refined oil floating storage, mln bbl 25 20 18 16 14 15 12 10 10 8 5 6 0 4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Energy Energy Chart 5.26. South East Asia crude oil floating storage, mln bbl Chart 5.27. South East Asia refined oil floating storage, mln bbl 80 70 18 16 60 14 50 40 12 30 10 20 8 10 Energy 6 Energy 22 / 30
Chart 5.28. Middle East crude oil floating storage, mln bbl Chart 5.29. Middle East refined oil floating storage, mln bbl 80 70 18 16 60 50 14 40 12 30 10 20 10 8 0 6 Energy Chart 5.30. US Gulf Coast crude oil floating storage, mln bbl Energy Chart 5.31. US Gulf Coast refined oil floating storage, mln bbl 18 16 14 7.5 6.5 12 5.5 10 8 4.5 6 3.5 4 2 2.5 0 1.5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Energy Energy Chart 5.32. North West Europe crude oil floating storage, mln bbl Chart 5.33. North West Europe refined oil floating storage, mln bbl 18 16 14 9 8 7 12 6 10 5 8 4 6 3 4 2 2 1 0 0 Energy Energy 23 / 30
Chart 5.34. West Africa crude oil floating storage, mln bbl Chart 5.35. West Africa refined oil floating storage, mln bbl 25 20 22 20 18 15 16 14 10 12 5 10 8 0 6 Energy Energy 24 / 30
APPENDIX Table 1. Global oil demand, mln bbl / d (quarterly data) Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2019 Q2-2019 Q3-2019 Q4-2019 2019 USA 19.49 20.01 19.92 20.05 20.24 20.26 20.25 20.21 20.33 20.09 20.37 20.49 20.05 20.21 20.49 0.28 0.16 0.28 Canada 2.37 2.36 2.52 2.52 2.32 2.36 2.30 2.49 2.49 2.35 2.31 2.51 2.52 2.49 2.51 0.12-0.03 0.02 Mexico 2.02 2.03 1.95 1.93 1.99 2.02 2.01 1.94 1.95 1.98 2.02 1.96 1.93 1.94 1.96-0.10 0.01 0.02 North America 24.57 25.06 25.07 25.19 25.26 25.31 25.23 25.31 25.45 25.14 25.37 25.63 25.19 25.31 25.63 0.34 0.12 0.32 Brazil 2.92 2.96 3.08 3.04 2.95 2.91 3.00 3.12 3.12 2.98 3.04 3.15 3.04 3.12 3.15-0.03 0.08 0.03 Other LatAm ex. Mexico 3.42 3.50 3.49 3.41 3.39 3.46 3.45 3.45 3.41 3.42 3.49 3.50 3.41 3.45 3.50-0.05 0.04 0.05 LatAm ex. Mexico 6.34 6.46 6.57 6.45 6.34 6.37 6.45 6.57 6.53 6.40 6.53 6.65 6.45 6.57 6.65-0.08 0.12 0.08 Total Europe 13.82 14.25 14.70 14.40 14.05 14.13 14.26 14.70 14.42 14.08 14.43 14.84 14.40 14.70 14.84 0.21 0.30 0.14 Japan 4.30 3.58 3.63 4.06 4.27 3.42 3.44 3.48 3.86 4.07 3.32 3.35 4.06 3.48 3.35-0.12-0.58-0.13 Korea 2.62 2.49 2.57 2.65 2.63 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.69 2.67 2.59 2.61 2.65 2.55 2.61-0.07-0.10 0.06 Australia, New Zealand, Israel 1.56 1.58 1.60 1.62 1.61 1.63 1.61 1.61 1.64 1.63 1.63 1.62 1.62 1.61 1.62 0.14-0.01 0.01 OECD Asia Pacific 8.48 7.65 7.80 8.33 8.51 7.60 7.60 7.64 8.19 8.37 7.54 7.58 8.33 7.64 7.58-0.05-0.69-0.06 China 12.39 12.80 12.40 12.69 12.84 13.14 13.00 12.63 13.15 13.07 13.47 13.10 12.69 12.63 13.10 0.82-0.06 0.47 India 4.46 4.67 4.42 4.72 4.82 4.92 5.04 4.77 5.12 5.16 5.27 4.96 4.72 4.77 4.96 0.16 0.05 0.19 Other non-oecd Asia 8.74 8.83 8.78 8.78 8.88 8.98 3.82 4.06 3.76 3.88 3.86 4.08 8.78 4.06 4.08 0.34-4.72 0.02 Total Asia 25.59 26.30 25.60 26.19 26.54 27.04 21.86 21.46 22.03 22.11 22.60 22.14 26.19 21.46 22.14 1.32-4.73 0.68 FSU 4.30 4.53 4.77 4.65 4.41 4.65 4.80 5.01 4.87 4.63 4.83 5.05 4.65 5.01 5.05-0.19 0.36 0.04 Total Middle East 8.24 8.65 8.85 8.17 8.05 8.52 8.41 8.88 8.22 8.08 8.56 8.93 8.17 8.88 8.93 0.05 0.71 0.05 Total Africa 4.42 4.32 4.23 4.34 4.41 4.33 4.34 4.22 4.38 4.50 4.47 4.35 4.34 4.22 4.35 0.02-0.12 0.13 OECD demand 46.87 46.96 47.57 47.91 47.82 47.04 47.09 47.65 48.06 47.58 47.34 48.06 47.91 47.65 48.06 0.49-0.26 0.41 Non-OECD demand 49.62 51.02 50.80 50.59 50.48 51.69 51.66 51.63 51.96 51.60 52.99 52.83 50.59 51.63 52.83 1.19 1.04 1.20 World demand 96.49 97.98 98.37 98.50 98.30 98.73 98.75 99.28 100.02 99.18 100.33 100.89 98.50 99.28 100.89 1.68 0.78 1.61 Δ Δ Δ 2019, Bloomberg Table 2. Global oil production, mln bbl / d (quarterly data) Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2019 Q2-2019 Q3-2019 Q4-2019 2019 Δ Δ Δ 2019 OPEC Crude* 32.30 32.60 33.00 32.60 32.30 32.10 33.10 32.80 32.90 32.80 33.60 33.60 32.60 32.80 33.60-0.80 0.20 0.80 OPEC NGLs 6.80 6.90 6.90 6.80 6.90 6.90 6.90 7.10 7.00 7.00 7.10 7.10 6.80 7.10 7.10 0.00 0.30 0.00 OPEC production 39.10 39.50 39.90 39.40 39.20 39.00 40.00 39.90 39.90 39.80 40.70 40.70 39.40 39.90 40.70-0.80 0.50 0.80 Americas 20.00 19.80 20.20 21.20 21.70 22.10 19.10 19.30 19.40 19.30 19.40 19.50 21.20 19.30 19.50 1.50-1.90 0.20 Europe 3.70 3.50 3.40 3.40 3.50 3.30 3.40 3.50 3.50 3.40 3.30 3.40 3.40 3.50 3.40-0.20 0.10-0.10 Pacific 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.50 0.40 0.40 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.10 OECD 24.00 23.70 24.00 25.00 25.70 25.80 22.90 23.30 23.30 23.20 23.10 23.30 25.00 23.30 23.30 1.30-1.70 0.00 FSU 14.40 14.30 14.20 14.40 14.40 14.50 13.90 14.10 14.20 14.20 14.20 14.40 14.40 14.10 14.40-0.20-0.30 0.30 Europe 3.70 3.50 3.40 3.40 3.50 3.30 3.40 3.50 3.50 3.40 3.30 3.40 3.40 3.50 3.40-0.20 0.10-0.10 China 3.90 3.90 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.90 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.90 3.90 3.80 4.00 3.90-0.10 0.20-0.10 Other Asia 3.50 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.30 2.70 2.70 2.60 2.60 2.70 2.60 3.40 2.70 2.60-0.10-0.70-0.10 Latin America 4.60 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.60 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.80 4.80 4.50 4.70 4.80-0.10 0.20 0.10 Middle East 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.20 1.20 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.30 1.20-0.10 0.10-0.10 Africa 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.50 2.00 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 1.40 2.10 2.10-0.30 0.70 0.00 Non-OECD 29.20 29.00 28.90 29.00 29.00 29.10 28.70 29.00 29.00 29.00 29.00 29.20 29.00 29.00 29.20-0.70 0.00 0.20 Non-OPEC Crude 53.20 52.70 52.90 54.00 54.70 54.90 51.60 52.30 52.30 52.20 52.10 52.50 54.00 52.30 52.50 0.60-1.70 0.20 Processing Gains 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 Global Biofuels 2.00 2.50 2.90 2.50 2.10 2.60 2.80 2.40 2.00 2.50 2.90 2.50 2.50 2.40 2.50 0.20-0.10 0.10 Non-OPEC production 57.50 57.50 58.00 58.70 59.10 59.80 56.60 57.00 56.60 57.00 57.30 57.30 58.70 57.00 57.30 0.80-1.70 0.30 World production 96.60 97.00 97.90 98.10 98.30 98.80 96.60 96.90 96.50 96.80 98.00 98.00 98.10 96.90 98.00 0.00-1.20 1.10 * IEA Call on OPEC as OPEC Crude forecast, Bloomberg 25 / 30
APPENDIX Table 3. Global crude oil production, mln bbl / d (monthly data) Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- 2016 Algeria 1.06 1.00 1.00 1.04 1.01 1.04 0.97 0.98 1.06 1.07 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.17 1.12 1.07-0.01-0.05-0.05 Angola 1.64 1.60 1.61 1.55 1.56 1.50 1.47 1.50 1.49 1.45 1.35 1.48 1.49 1.61 1.74 1.49-0.20 0.13-0.25 Ecuador 0.54 0.53 0.52 0.52 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.53 0.52 0.56 0.53 0.52 0.01-0.03-0.01 Gabon 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.22 0.19 0.18 0.20 0.15 0.17 0.24 0.20 0.17 0.00-0.04-0.03 Indonesia 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.80 0.77 0.80 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.76 0.80 0.76-0.05 0.04-0.04 Iran 3.85 3.81 3.88 3.81 3.82 3.74 3.82 3.80 3.83 3.81 3.78 3.77 3.48 2.58 2.94 3.48 0.17 0.36 0.55 Iraq 4.51 4.35 4.53 4.35 4.45 4.37 4.40 4.43 4.44 4.58 4.77 4.64 4.65 3.76 4.44 4.65 0.61 0.67 0.22 Kuwait 2.70 2.70 2.71 2.70 2.71 2.70 2.70 2.71 2.70 2.71 2.80 2.81 2.75 2.71 2.93 2.75 0.02 0.22-0.18 Libya 0.90 0.93 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.99 1.00 1.01 0.98 0.73 0.70 0.95 1.02 0.53 0.43 1.02 0.30-0.10 0.59 Nigeria 1.80 1.66 1.88 1.72 1.66 1.64 1.56 1.72 1.50 1.45 1.53 1.67 1.72 1.81 1.56 1.72 0.09-0.25 0.15 Qatar 0.57 0.60 0.62 0.61 0.62 0.54 0.57 0.58 0.60 0.62 0.62 0.61 0.57 0.68 0.63 0.57-0.05-0.05-0.06 Saudi Arabia 9.97 10.06 9.89 9.98 9.98 9.94 9.91 9.87 10.03 10.49 10.29 10.41 10.50 9.54 10.14 10.50-0.03 0.60 0.36 U.A.E. 2.96 2.95 2.90 2.86 2.85 2.80 2.87 2.87 2.87 2.89 2.98 2.97 3.05 3.16 2.99 3.05 0.18-0.16 0.06 Venezuela 1.82 1.82 1.79 1.62 1.59 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.35 1.32 1.29 1.26 1.18 2.08 1.99 1.18-0.41-0.09-0.81 OPEC Crude 32.90 32.62 32.91 32.39 32.34 31.83 31.78 32.04 31.95 32.26 32.33 32.74 32.62 30.61 32.07 32.62 0.36 1.46 0.55 OPEC NGLs 6.59 6.58 6.55 6.52 6.60 6.64 6.54 6.57 6.59 6.51 6.51 6.51 6.62 6.55 6.50 6.62 0.23-0.05 0.11 OPEC production 39.49 39.20 39.46 38.91 38.95 38.46 38.32 38.61 38.54 38.76 38.84 39.25 39.23 37.16 38.57 39.23 0.59 1.41 0.66 USA 9.57 9.72 10.12 9.97 9.99 10.33 10.45 10.48 10.47 10.58 10.93 11.03 11.18 9.69 9.23 11.18 1.63-0.46 1.95 Canada 3.86 3.78 4.11 4.22 4.06 4.11 4.15 4.02 4.16 3.95 4.20 4.05 4.04 3.54 3.84 4.04 0.01 0.30 0.21 Mexico 1.73 1.90 1.87 1.87 1.93 1.90 1.86 1.89 1.87 1.85 1.83 1.82 1.81 2.35 2.27 1.81-0.16-0.08-0.47 North America 15.16 15.40 16.09 16.06 15.98 16.34 16.47 16.38 16.49 16.37 16.95 16.90 17.03 15.59 15.34 17.03 1.48-0.24 1.69 Brazil 2.65 2.63 2.60 2.61 2.62 2.62 2.56 2.60 2.61 2.59 2.58 2.52 2.62 2.50 2.53 2.62 0.39 0.04 0.09 Argentina 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.46 0.47 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.46 0.50 0.49 0.46-0.02 0.00-0.04 Colombia 0.81 0.83 0.81 0.83 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.88 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 1.01 1.00 0.88 0.01-0.01-0.12 Other Latin America 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.24 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.01-0.03-0.03 Non-OPEC Latin America ex. Mexico 4.17 4.16 4.12 4.18 4.21 4.18 4.13 4.16 4.18 4.15 4.14 4.07 4.19 4.29 4.29 4.19 0.39 0.00-0.10 United Kingdom 0.96 0.97 1.02 0.74 1.01 1.01 0.96 1.03 1.00 1.03 1.24 1.04 1.21 0.93 0.97 1.21 0.03 0.04 0.25 Norway 1.45 1.55 1.49 1.54 1.63 1.57 1.53 1.52 1.32 1.49 1.53 1.52 1.56 1.57 1.66 1.56 0.00 0.09-0.10 Other Europe 0.56 0.54 0.55 0.54 0.55 0.54 0.52 0.53 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.47 0.53 0.64 0.59 0.53 0.01-0.06-0.06 Europe 2.96 3.06 3.06 2.82 3.18 3.12 3.01 3.08 2.84 3.04 3.29 3.04 3.30 3.14 3.21 3.30 0.05 0.07 0.09 Russia 10.99 11.01 11.02 10.97 11.03 11.02 11.04 11.04 11.04 11.13 11.28 11.26 11.37 10.73 10.90 11.37 0.04 0.17 0.47 Other Ex-USSR 2.59 2.57 2.68 2.70 2.69 2.70 2.67 2.66 2.70 2.66 2.70 2.52 2.69 2.36 2.59 2.69-0.07 0.23 0.10 FSU 13.57 13.58 13.70 13.67 13.71 13.72 13.71 13.70 13.74 13.79 13.98 13.78 14.06 13.09 13.49 14.06-0.04 0.40 0.57 China 3.79 3.78 3.83 3.77 3.77 3.77 3.77 3.78 3.77 3.87 3.82 3.77 3.79 4.32 4.29 3.79 0.05-0.03-0.50 India 0.72 0.75 0.74 0.75 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.72 0.73 0.72 0.77 0.74 0.72-0.01-0.03-0.02 Malaysia 0.58 0.56 0.57 0.55 0.60 0.58 0.58 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.58 0.57 0.58 0.60 0.62 0.58 0.10 0.02-0.04 Australia 0.25 0.27 0.26 0.24 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.25 0.28 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.36 0.34 0.26 0.01-0.01-0.08 Other Non-OPEC Asia Pacific 1.70 1.72 1.73 1.72 1.70 1.72 1.67 1.59 1.64 1.64 1.67 1.66 1.66 1.60 1.82 1.66-0.02 0.21-0.16 Non-OPEC Asia Pacific 7.04 7.06 7.13 7.04 7.09 7.08 7.03 6.94 6.96 7.10 7.05 6.99 7.01 7.65 7.81 7.01 0.13 0.16-0.80 Egypt 0.59 0.57 0.59 0.57 0.57 0.64 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.58 0.56 0.56 0.58 0.60 0.62 0.58 0.01 0.02-0.04 Oman 0.89 0.95 0.94 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.93 1.01 0.99-0.01 0.07-0.02 Non-OPEC Africa/Mid East 2.19 2.23 2.21 2.23 2.26 2.33 2.22 2.19 2.23 2.23 2.19 2.20 2.27 2.90 2.36 2.27-0.10-0.54-0.09 Non-OPEC Crude 48.73 48.96 49.53 48.92 49.21 49.41 49.45 49.72 50.02 50.50 51.44 50.74 51.62 49.48 49.39 51.62 1.78-0.09 2.24 Non-OPEC NGLs 7.36 7.79 7.85 7.77 7.67 7.88 8.05 8.05 7.97 7.95 8.08 8.09 8.18 7.22 6.91 8.18 0.75-0.31 1.27 Non-OPEC production 56.10 56.75 57.38 56.69 56.88 57.29 57.50 57.76 57.99 58.45 59.52 58.84 59.80 56.70 56.29 59.80 2.54-0.40 3.51 World production 95.59 95.95 96.84 95.60 95.82 95.75 95.82 96.37 96.53 97.21 98.36 98.08 99.03 93.86 94.86 99.03 3.13 1.01 4.17 (YTD) Δ 2016 Δ Δ (YTD) Source: IEG 26 / 30
APPENDIX Table 4. OECD commercial oil inventories, mln bbl (monthly data) Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- 2016 Americas 1 595 1 587 1 575 1 572 1 542 1 523 1 499 1 481 1 473 1 468 1 462 1 477 1 471 1 599 1 499 1 471 38-100 -28 Crude 656 642 618 625 617 610 581 581 582 585 591 598 576 646 581 576 37-65 -5 Products 753 755 755 748 727 722 735 723 718 703 697 699 709 775 735 709 0-40 -26 Europe 999 1 004 989 966 948 953 942 985 981 970 970 962 958 972 942 958-21 -30 16 Crude 363 364 343 338 335 347 330 334 340 344 353 357 356 339 330 356-22 -10 26 Products 564 565 575 556 540 531 543 574 564 546 534 518 521 562 543 521-4 -19-22 Asia Pacific 424 437 443 433 435 427 412 409 402 378 388 390 388 414 412 388-20 -2-24 Crude 190 197 195 198 188 188 189 186 184 161 163 163 162 192 189 162-14 -3-27 Products 170 176 182 172 183 176 165 163 160 161 165 165 165 162 165 165-4 3 0 OECD 3 019 3 028 3 007 2 971 2 926 2 903 2 853 2 876 2 856 2 816 2 820 2 828 2 817 2 985 2 853 2 817-4 -132-36 Crude 1 209 1 203 1 156 1 161 1 140 1 145 1 099 1 101 1 105 1 090 1 107 1 118 1 095 1 177 1 099 1 095 1-78 -4 Products 1 487 1 495 1 512 1 476 1 450 1 429 1 443 1 459 1 442 1 411 1 396 1 382 1 395 1 499 1 443 1 395-8 -57-48 (YTD) Δ 2016 Δ Δ (YTD) Table 5. OECD oil inventories, mln bbl (quarterly data) Q2-2015 Q3-2015 Q4-2015 Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-2016 Canada 176 183 188 184 175 185 183 185 183 186 189 192 190 183 189 190-5 6 1 Mexico 50 50 50 46 49 46 47 48 49 47 44 47 N/A 47 44 N/A -2-4 N/A USA 1 943 1 973 1 987 2 024 2 051 2 053 2 032 2 035 2 011 1 980 1 897 1 864 N/A 2 032 1 897 N/A 45-135 N/A Americas 2 203 2 240 2 258 2 286 2 308 2 318 2 296 2 301 2 277 2 247 2 163 2 136 2 133 2 296 2 163 2 133 38-132 -30 Australia 36 36 34 37 38 37 34 33 35 34 34 40 N/A 34 34 N/A 0 0 N/A Japan 578 590 582 560 574 587 563 546 566 571 563 539 N/A 563 563 N/A -20 0 N/A Korea 225 226 228 236 238 239 230 238 236 244 231 213 N/A 230 231 N/A 2 0 N/A New Zealand 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 8 9 9 7 9 1-2 2 Pacific 848 860 851 841 859 871 836 826 847 857 835 800 813 836 835 813-16 -1-22 Germany 286 281 285 289 288 285 285 280 277 274 279 280 N/A 285 279 N/A 0-7 N/A France 170 167 168 166 168 167 162 168 165 165 166 166 N/A 162 166 N/A -5 4 N/A Italy 117 117 117 120 121 127 124 134 134 128 125 126 N/A 124 125 N/A 7 1 N/A Spain 133 140 131 142 136 139 129 137 129 127 120 125 N/A 129 120 N/A -2-10 N/A UK 77 79 81 77 78 77 79 81 84 84 83 84 90 79 83 90-2 4 7 Turkey 66 71 75 76 78 77 79 81 84 84 83 84 N/A 79 83 N/A 5 4 N/A Sweden 31 33 35 35 33 36 34 53 53 42 36 39 N/A 34 36 N/A -2 2 N/A Other Europe 531 546 571 576 578 562 558 571 558 540 532 551 N/A 558 532 N/A -13-26 N/A Europe 1 411 1 434 1 463 1 481 1 480 1 469 1 451 1 506 1 483 1 444 1 423 1 454 1 444 1 451 1 423 1 444-13 -28 21 OECD 4 462 4 533 4 573 4 608 4 647 4 658 4 582 4 632 4 608 4 547 4 421 4 390 4 390 4 582 4 421 4 390 9-161 -31 (YTD) Δ 2016 Δ Δ (YTD) 27 / 30
APPENDIX Table 6. Global oil stocks on floating storages, mln bbl Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- 2016 South East Asia 59.5 58.6 59.1 62.5 54.6 49.5 51.5 53.1 50.5 40.3 42.3 41.9 42.9 64.5 59.1 42.9 12.5-5.5-16.2 Crude 45.5 45.5 46.5 49.4 40.7 36.4 38.3 39.4 37.0 28.8 30.0 28.6 27.9 50.0 46.5 27.9 8.5-3.5-18.5 Products 14.0 13.1 12.6 13.1 13.9 13.0 13.2 13.8 13.5 11.4 12.3 13.3 14.9 14.5 12.6 14.9 4.1-1.9 2.3 Middle East 40.8 20.7 27.8 18.1 30.2 30.0 32.7 34.1 33.9 32.0 29.3 33.7 20.6 44.5 27.8 20.6-7.8-16.7-7.2 Crude 34.8 15.4 20.7 11.9 22.8 20.9 24.7 26.1 25.2 24.5 22.1 26.6 12.9 37.9 20.7 12.9-7.4-17.2-7.8 Products 6.0 5.4 7.1 6.2 7.3 9.1 8.0 8.0 8.7 7.6 7.1 7.1 7.8 6.6 7.1 7.8-0.4 0.5 0.6 Mediterranean 33.5 37.8 37.1 36.9 36.4 33.5 29.8 27.1 30.3 31.7 33.8 31.0 31.1 36.1 37.1 31.1 3.8 1.0-6.0 Crude 18.3 23.6 23.0 24.0 20.3 18.8 16.6 15.3 18.2 16.7 19.4 15.7 16.3 21.0 23.0 16.3 0.1 2.0-6.7 Products 15.2 14.2 14.2 12.8 16.1 14.7 13.2 11.8 12.1 14.9 14.3 15.2 14.8 15.1 14.2 14.8 3.7-0.9 0.7 North West Europe 10.4 9.8 8.9 13.6 12.6 14.9 13.7 19.0 19.6 18.1 18.7 11.7 9.2 15.6 8.9 9.2 2.9-6.8 0.3 Crude 4.3 6.2 4.4 8.9 8.2 10.0 9.4 12.6 13.6 9.7 12.0 6.2 5.1 12.3 4.4 5.1 3.5-7.9 0.7 Products 6.1 3.6 4.5 4.7 4.5 5.0 4.3 6.4 6.0 8.4 6.6 5.5 4.1 3.4 4.5 4.1-0.6 1.1-0.4 West Africa 32.1 30.9 29.8 24.9 31.5 30.7 34.0 33.0 34.3 33.4 33.6 25.7 25.0 32.0 29.8 25.0 6.1-2.2-4.7 Crude 17.5 15.3 14.9 11.9 14.1 12.5 14.1 13.9 17.1 18.1 16.3 9.7 9.9 16.4 14.9 9.9 5.2-1.5-5.0 Products 14.6 15.5 14.9 13.0 17.4 18.1 19.9 19.0 17.2 15.4 17.3 16.0 15.1 15.5 14.9 15.1 0.8-0.7 0.2 China + Korea + Japan 25.8 22.9 21.5 8.9 20.7 43.8 27.8 22.5 19.7 37.9 25.8 25.9 25.0 27.9 21.5 25.0 5.1-6.5 3.5 Crude 12.9 11.4 10.7 4.5 10.3 21.9 13.9 11.3 9.8 19.0 12.9 13.0 12.5 14.0 10.7 12.5 2.6-3.2 1.8 Products 12.9 11.4 10.7 4.5 10.3 21.9 13.9 11.3 9.8 19.0 12.9 13.0 12.5 14.0 10.7 12.5 2.6-3.2 1.8 US Gulf Coast 19.8 14.8 17.9 12.1 14.2 14.7 8.0 9.2 19.9 12.8 10.7 7.6 10.4 13.1 17.9 10.4 3.7 4.8-7.6 Crude 16.4 11.8 15.1 7.4 7.8 10.1 5.5 6.0 16.3 10.0 6.8 4.8 7.2 8.5 15.1 7.2 2.1 6.6-7.9 Products 3.4 3.0 2.8 4.7 6.4 4.6 2.5 3.2 3.7 2.8 3.9 2.7 3.1 4.6 2.8 3.1 1.6-1.8 0.3 India 3.8 6.0 5.3 6.5 4.2 7.5 6.7 8.8 4.5 6.0 6.3 6.7 11.5 12.1 5.3 11.5 7.6-6.8 6.2 Crude 0.4 0.1 0.7 2.1 0.6 2.2 0.5 4.8 1.4 0.9 2.0 1.4 6.7 8.7 0.7 6.7 8.6-8.1 6.1 Products 3.4 5.9 4.7 4.4 3.5 5.3 6.1 4.0 3.1 5.1 4.3 5.3 4.8 3.3 4.7 4.8-1.0 1.3 0.1 World 242.8 217.9 217.1 204.5 218.2 235.8 218.1 226.8 231.4 219.8 214.8 200.7 188.3 258.1 217.1 188.3 34.7-41.1-28.8 Crude 163.0 141.1 143.3 132.6 137.2 150.7 137.3 145.5 153.7 140.6 135.5 121.0 108.5 180.8 143.3 108.5 23.3-37.4-34.9 Products 79.8 76.8 73.7 71.9 81.0 85.1 80.8 81.3 77.7 79.2 79.3 79.7 79.8 77.4 73.7 79.8 11.4-3.6 6.0 (YTD) Δ 2016 Δ Δ (YTD) Energy 28 / 30
ARBAT CAPITAL EQUITY RESEARCH Sergey Fundobny Head of Research, Strategy (495) 780 01 11 (ext. 90-23) Fundobny@arbatcapital.com Vitaly Gromadin, CFA Senior Analyst, Oil & Gas (495) 780 01 11 (ext. 90-50) Gromadin@arbatcapital.com Mikhail Zavaraev, CFA Senior Analyst, Finance (495) 780 01 11 (ext. 90-54) Zavaraev@arbatcapital.com CONTACTS ARBAT INVESTMENT SERVICES LTD 123001, Moscow Sadovaya-Kudrinskaya Str. 32 bldg.1 Tel.: (499) 702 30 04 Fax: (499) 702 30 34 e-mail: research@arbatcapital.com Internet www.arbatcapital.com 29 / 30
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