International Economic Outlook: Shifting International Trade Routes Larry Boorstein, Project Manager, AECOM Prepared for Shifting International Trade Routes, January 29-30, 2015, Tampa, presented by AAPA in cooperation with the U.S. Maritime Administration hosted by the Port of Tampa Bay. January 29, 2015
World merchandise trade World merchandise trade Annual Percentage Growth Rate vs. Year 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0-2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015P Source: World Trade Organization, Secretariat for Trade, September 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 2
World real GDP at market exchange rates World real GDP at market exchange rates Annual Percentage Growth Rate vs. Year 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015P Rest of world Asia North America South and Central America Europe Source: World Trade Organization, Secretariat for Trade, September 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 3
World merchandise imports World Merchandise Imports Annual Percentage Growth Rate vs. Year 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 South and Central America Asia North America Europe 0.0-5.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015P Rest of world Source: Source: World Trade Organization, Secretariat for Trade, September 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 4
World merchandise exports World Merchandise Exports Annual Percent Growth Rate vs. Year 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 Asia Rest of world South and Central America Europe 0.0-5.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015P North America Source: Source: World Trade Organization, Secretariat for Trade, September 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 5
Real GDP growth 10 Real GDP, percent change from previous year except interest rates vs. year 8 India 6 4 2 0-2 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f China Indonesia Brazil South Africa United States United Kingdom Euro Area Japan Russia -4 Source: World Bank Global Economic Prospects, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 6
Real GDP growth, OECD and BRICS 6 5 4 3 2 1 World real GDP, percent change from previous year: OECD and BRICS vs. year 0 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f OECD real GDP BRICS real GDP Source: World Bank Global Economic Prospects, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 7
World real GDP and world trade volume growth 6 World real GDP and World trade volume annual percentage growth rate vs. year 5 4 3 2 1 0 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f World real GDP (2010 PPP weights) World trade volume Ratio trade growth to GDP growth Source: World Bank Global Economic Prospects, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 8
GDP at current prices by country Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2014 through Knoema February 2, 2015 Page 9
GDP based on PPP valuation Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2014 through Knoema February 2, 2015 Page 10
Growth in real GDP Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 11
Growth in real GDP Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 12
Growth in real GDP Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 13
Growth in real GDP Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 14
Growth in real GDP Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 15
Growth in real GDP Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 16
World GDP in current USD 8E+13 GDP by G-7, BRICS and Other World, 1960-2013 (USD) 7E+13 6E+13 5E+13 4E+13 3E+13 Other World BRICS G-7 2E+13 1E+13 0 Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 17
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 G-7 GDP in current USD GDP by G-7 Countries and Year, 1960-2013 (USD) 4E+13 3.5E+13 3E+13 2.5E+13 2E+13 1.5E+13 1E+13 5E+12 0 Canada Italy United Kingdom France Germany Japan United States Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 18
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 BRICS GDP in current USD 2E+13 1.8E+13 1.6E+13 1.4E+13 1.2E+13 1E+13 8E+12 6E+12 4E+12 2E+12 0 GDP by BRICS Countries and Year, 1960-2013 (USD) South Asia India Russian Federation Brazil China Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 19
EU, US, China and Japan GDP in current USD 2E+13 GDP EU, US, China and Japan, 1960-2013 (USD) 1.5E+13 1E+13 5E+12 European Union United States China Japan 0 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 20
Share of World GDP, 2003 Share of World GDP by G-7 and BRICS, 2003 BRICS, 10.4% Other World, 25.8% G-7, 63.7% Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 21
Share of World GDP, 2013 Share of World GDP by G-7 and BRICS, 2013 Other World, 30.3% G-7, 46.1% BRICS, 23.6% Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 22
Country Shares of World GDP, 2003 SHARE OF WORLD GDP, 2003 Rest of World Australia Canada India Russian Federation Brazil United States Japan China European Union Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 23
Country Shares of World GDP, 2013 SHARE OF WORLD GDP, 2013 Rest of World United States Australia Canada India China Russian Federation Brazil Japan European Union Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 24
GDP by Country, 2003-2013 GDP by Country and Area, 2003-2013 Rest of World Australia Canada India Russian Federation Brazil Japan European Union China United States 0 1E+13 2E+13 2013 2003 Source: World Bank, January 2015 February 2, 2015 Page 25
United States merchandise trade, 2000-2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 26
United States merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 27
United States services trade, 2000-2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 28
China merchandise trade, 2000-2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 29
China merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 30
Canada merchandise trade, 2000-2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 31
Canada merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 32
Mexico merchandise trade, 2000-2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 33
Mexico merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 34
Germany merchandise trade, 2000-2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 35
Germany merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 36
France merchandise trade, 2000-2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 37
France merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 38
United Kingdom merchandise trade, 2000-2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 39
United Kingdom merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 40
Italy merchandise trade, 2000-2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 41
Italy merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 42
Japan merchandise trade, 2000-2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 43
Japan merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 44
Brazil merchandise trade, 2000-2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 45
Brazil merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 46
Russian Federation, merchandise trade, 2000-2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 47
Russian Federation merchandise trade by region (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 48
India merchandise trade, 2000-2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 49
India merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 50
South Africa merchandise trade, 2000-2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 51
South Africa merchandise trade by region, 2013 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 52
Saudi Arabia merchandise trade, 2000-2012 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 53
Saudi Arabia merchandise trade by region, 2012 (USD billions) Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 54
Exports of manufactured goods, fuel and mining and agricultural products (USD billions) Source: World Trade Organization, International Trade Statistics, 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 55
Exports of manufactured goods, fuel and mining, and agricultural products (USD billions) Presentation Title February 2, 2015 Page 56
Leading merchandise traders, exports vs. imports, 2013 (USD billions) Source: World Trade Organization, International Trade Statistics, 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 57
World surface transportation routes Source: Trader2Trader February 2, 2015 Page 58
Panama Canal Expansion Project Presentation Title February 2, 2015 Page 59
U.S. intermodal and interstate highway corridors Source: Maritime Administration February 2, 2015 Page 60
Routes from Northeast Asia to Major North American destinations Source: Parsons Brinckerhoff, Panama Canal Expansion Study, 2012 February 2, 2015 Page 61
Nicaragua Canal Source: HKND Group and ERM, Nicaragua Canal Project Description, December 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 62
Nicaragua Canal dimensions Source: HKND Group and ERM, Nicaragua Canal Project Description, December 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 63
Nicaragua Canal target vessels Source: HKND Group and ERM, Nicaragua Canal Project Description, December 2014 February 2, 2015 Page 64
Panama and Nicaragua canal design vessels and largest containerships Canal design vessels vs. largest containerships Design vessels Panama Nicaragua APM CSCL MSC Canal Canal McKinney Globe Oscar Maersk TEU 12,000 25,000 18,340 19,100 19,224 Length m 366 500 400 400 395.4 Width m 49 72 59 58.6 59 Draft m 15.2 18 16 16 16 _ February 2, 2015 Page 65
Containership fleet 4500 Containership fleet by teu capacity, 2013-2014 ('000 teu) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 100-999 teu 1000-2999 teu 3000+ teu 3000-7999 teu 8000-11999 teu 12000+ teu Feeder Hdy/Sub-P Panamax Post-Pmax Post-Pmax Post-Pmax 2013 685.7 3399.1 3764 3667.9 3541.8 2057.5 2014 659.3 3355.8 3617.9 3812.3 4089.9 2676.1 Source: Clarkson February 2, 2015 Page 66
Containership orderbook 1800 Containership orderbook by teu capacity, 2013-2014 ('000 teu) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 100-999 teu 1000-2999 teu 3000+ teu 3000-7999 teu 8000-11999 teu 12000+ teu Feeder Hdy/SubP Panamax Post-Pmax Post-Pmax Post-Pmax 2013 7.7 255.8 34.9 478.9 1558.5 1673.5 2014 3.6 311.7 13 224.8 1175.3 1551.2 Source: Clarkson February 2, 2015 Page 67
APM McKinney Maersk Triple E 18,340 TEU ship 400 m long x 59 m wide x 16 m draft _ February 2, 2015 Page 68
CSCL Globe 19,100 TEU ship - 400 m long x 58.6 m wide x 16 m draft _ February 2, 2015 Page 69
MSC Oscar 19,224 TEU containership - 395.4 m long x 59 m wide x 16 m draft _ February 2, 2015 Page 70
Suez Canal Source: World Shipping Council February 2, 2015 Page 71
Suez Canal expansion project Source: Reuters, theloadstar.co.uk through Al Arabiya February 2, 2015 Page 72
New Suez Canal project Source: Suez Canal Authority February 2, 2015 Page 73
Northern Sea Route vs. Southern Sea Route via Suez _ February 2, 2015 Page 74
Arctic ice, 1980-2012 (million sq. km) Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center in Council on Foreign Relations, The Thawing Arctic February 2, 2015 Page 75
Northern Sea Route from China to Europe and Northwest Passage from China to U.S. East Coast Source: Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration February 2, 2015 Page 76
Trans-Siberian railway Source: TransSiberian Info February 2, 2015 Page 77
China to Europe via Kazakhstan railway _ February 2, 2015 Page 78
Block Train Service China - Europe Source: China Daily, 2013-10-30 February 2, 2015 Page 79
Bering Straits rail tunnel Source: InterBering LLC February 2, 2015 Page 80
Crude oil prices, 2005-2015 Source: NASDAQ.com, January 26,2015 February 2, 2015 Page 81
Expansion of Cuba trade Source: crowley.com; reuters.com February 2, 2015 Page 82
Thank you. Larry Boorstein larry.boorstein@aecom.com Cell +1-703-625-8414 AECOM Technical Services, Inc. 2101 Wilson Blvd 8 th Fl Arlington VA 22201-3044 January 29, 2015