The Power Generation Mix and 3E Consequence: The Implications for Taiwan Yi-Hua Wu, Chia Hao Liu, Hancheng Dai and Toshihiko Masui 1
Introductions Purpose Investigate the impacts of various power generation mix Use an integrated model, AIM/CGE and 2050 Calculator, to study such an issue AIM/CGE+2050 Calculator Energy Information AIM/CGE 2050 Calculator Economic Information Energy Impacts Energy demand Economy Impacts GDP Environment Impacts CO2 emissions 2
Introductions Taiwan Relies on Energy Import 98% of Taiwan s energy is imported in 2016 Nuclear Fuel Gas Oil Nuclear Fuel 3
Introductions Why Power Generation Mix is Important? 65% of CO2 emissions come from Energy Sector in 2016 Power Generation Sector is the major source of energy emissions. 30,000 MT CO_2e Total CO2 Emissions 180 MT CO_2e Energy Sector Emissions 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Transportation Industry Sector Energy Sector Residence Service Agriculture Transportation Industry Energy 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Power Generation Sector Others Power Sector Oil Refining Steel Refining Coal Refining 5,000 20 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 2015 2016 4
Introductions Power Generation is Controlled by Government Power Market is controlled by Government in Taiwan Government Control Private Own (31%) Independent Power Producer Cogeneration Power Renewables State Own Company (69%) Power Grid Coal, Gas, Nuclear, Renewables Consumer 5
Introductions Protest against Nuclear Power People protested nuclear power in Taiwan Source: http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/life/paper/759872 Source: http://www.peoplenews.tw/news/13366fd0-a3c5-49c8- bce2-baa9c1519c85 6
Introductions Renewable, 4.8% Oil, 4.2% Policy Goal: Transition to a Cleaner Power Mix In 2016, Gas (32.4%) and Coal (45.4%) are major source of power supply In 2017, Taiwan s authority announced clean power goal: The 2025 Target: Gas (50%) and Coal (30%) and Renewables (20%) Power Supply in 2016 Power Supply Goal in 2025 Pumped Nuclear, Hydro, 1.2% 12.0% Coal, 45.4% Renewable, 20.0% Coal, 30.0% Gas, 32.4% Gas, 50.0% Designed by 長野宇平治 7
Introductions Outline of this Study Mission: Transition to low-carbon in the future Policy Goal: Gas (50%), Coal (30%), and Renewables (20%) in 2025. Impacts on 3 E (Energy, Environment, and Economy) + Main CO2 Source Power Generation Sector Policy Goal 20% of Renewable 30% of Coal Fire 50% of Gas Fire This Study Energy Impacts Environment Impacts Economic Impacts 8
Models Build of Taiwan 2050 Calculator Built since 2013 by Industrial Technology Institute Research (ITRI) Built of 2050 Calculator for Taiwan 2050 Calculator Conference in Taipei Interaction with AIM/CGE-Taiwan 2013 2015 2017 Attendance of 2050 Calculator Conference in Taipei Dr. Nishioka as a Keynote 9
Models 2050 Calculator is Open to the Public Every one can choose their scenarios Excel-based Core Model Interactive Version Advanced Version http://my2050.twenergy.org.tw http://2050.twenergy.org.tw 10
Models Build of Taiwan 2050 Calculator Based upon Experts Views More than 100 consultation workshops Reviewed by more than 100 experts 11
Models Level Meaning Definition 1 Little or no attempt assumes little or no attempt to decarbonise or change or only short run efforts 2 Ambitious describes what might be achieved by applying a level of effort that is likely to be viewed as ambitious but reasonable by most or all experts. Energy supply 3 Very ambitious describes what might be achieved by applying a very ambitious level of effort that need a significant breakthroughs from the current system. Domestic and commercial 4 heroic describes a heroic level of change that could be achieved with effort at the extreme upper end of what is thought to be physically plausible by the most optimistic credible observer. This level pushes towards the physical or technical limits of what can be achieved. Industry Transportation Determine energy flow of the system 12
Models Structure of Interaction Official Projection of Taiwanese GDP 2050 Calculator Energy demand CO2 Emissions Electricity Price AIM/CGE Energy Impacts Energy demand Economy Impacts GDP Environment Impacts CO2 emissions 13
Scenarios GDP Growth in Taiwan In July 2017, National Development Council in Taiwan announced the future GDP growth in Taiwan Taiwan s GDP growth is expected to stabilize. GDP growth in Taiwan 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 2016 2019 2022 2025 Source: National Development Council in Taiwan 14
Scenarios Industrial Trends in Taiwan A large share of value added is composed of the service sector Industrial structure is stable 100% 90% Industrial Trends in Taiwan 80% 70% Service Sector 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Industrial Sector 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Service Industry Agriculture 15
Scenarios Scenarios of 2050 Calculator Energy demand: Ambitious (Level 2) energy saving Reasonable and achievable scenario for energy saving Three scenarios for Energy supply: 20% of Renewable (High RE) 6% of Renewable (Low RE) 37% of Gas-fired (High Coal-Fired and Low RE) 7% of Renewables and 54% of Gas-fired (High Gas-Fired and Low RE) Energy Demand Scenarios Energy Saving Level 2 Applying a level of effort that is likely to be viewed as ambitious but reasonable by most or all experts Energy Supply Power Share in 2025 20% of Renewables (BaU) 6% of Renewables and 37% of Gas 7% of Renewables and 54% of Gas-fired 16
Simulation Results (1): BaU Power Generation in Taiwan BaU: 20% of renewables are expected in 2025 Gas-fired: 47%. Others: 33%. (Coal, CHP, and IPP) Nuclear power disappears in 2025 Power Generation by Fuel Power Generation by Share 350,000 GWh 100% 300,000 90% 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000-2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Other Renewables Nuclear Gas Coal 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Other Renewables Nuclear Gas Coal 17
Simulation Results (1): BaU Energy Demand and Supply in Taiwan With ambitious (Level 2) energy saving, future energy demand is going to decline Industry sector is the major demand for energy Energy supply is also going to decline Coal and oil decline while gas increases No nuclear power in the future Energy Demand Energy Supply 140,000 Million LOE 140,000 Million LOE 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Energy Agreculture Transportation Service Residence Non Energy Use Industry 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Others Renewables Gas Oil Coal Nuclear - 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025-2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Note: LOE, Liter Oil Equivalent 18
Simulation Results (1): BaU Electricity Price and CO2 Emissions Power price is expect to increase from 0.10 USD/kWh in 2018 to 0.12 USD/kWh CO2 emissions are expected to decline from 239 million tonne in 2018 to 219 million tonne in 2025 Electricity Price CO2 USD/kWh 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 300 250 200 150 100 50 Million Tonne 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 19
Simulation Results (2): Low REs and High Coal Renewables Drop to 6% in 2025 No ambitious development of renewables (6% in 2025) Gas-fired declines to 37% in 2025. Others: 57% (Coal, CHP, and IPP) Nuclear still drops to 0 in 2025. Power Generation by Fuel Power Generation by Share GWh 350,000 100% 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 Other Renewables Nuclear Gas Coal 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Other Renewables Nuclear Gas Coal 50,000-2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20% 10% 0% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Other includes CHP, oil, and other fuels 20
Simulation Results (2): Low REs and High Coal With High Coal-fired Electricity price is lower (Scenario: 6% of RE) compared with BaU (Scenario: 20% of RE) GDP is higher, energy demand is higher, and CO2 emissions are higher Electricity Price GDP Impacts 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% -10.00% -12.00% -14.00% -16.00% -18.00% 2018 2020 2025 0.18% 0.16% 0.14% 0.12% 0.10% 0.08% 0.06% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 2018 2020 2025 Energy Demand CO2 Emissions 6.00% 25.0% 5.00% 20.0% 4.00% 3.00% 15.0% 2.00% 10.0% 1.00% 5.0% 0.00% 2018 2020 2025 0.0% 2018 2020 2025 21
Simulation Results (3): Low REs and High Gas High Gas-fired and Low Renewables Gas-fired increases to 54% in 2025, while renewables reach 7% in 2025. Nuclear power still drops to almost 0 in 2025 Power Generation by Fuel Power Generation by Share 250,000 GWh 100% 90% 200,000 150,000 100,000 Renewables Nuclear Gas Coal 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Renewables Nuclear Gas Coal 50,000 20% 10% - 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Other includes CHP, oil, and other fuels 22
Simulation Results (3): Low REs and High Gas 0% -2% -4% With high Gas-fired Electricity price is lower (Scenario: 7% of RE and 54% of Gas) compared with BaU (Scenario: 20% of RE and 37% of Gas) GDP, energy demand, and CO2 emissions increase. Electricity Price 2018 2020 2025 0.12% 0.10% 0.08% 0.06% GDP Impacts -6% 0.04% -8% 0.02% -10% Energy Demand 0.00% 2018 2020 2025 CO2 Emissions 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 2018 2020 2025 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2018 2020 2025 23
Conclusions More Renewables have the Lowest Emissions 20% of renewables have the lowest CO2 emissions GDP is the lowest with 20% of renewables. CO2 Emissions are highest with low renewables and high coal-fired, but this scenario has the highest GDP Future work: further integration between 2050 Calculator and AIM/CGE BaU Scenario (2) Scenario (3) Energy Demand Energy Supply Compare with BaU Energy Saving Level 2 ambitious but reasonable by most or all experts Power Share in 2025 20% of Renewables (BaU) Power Share in 2025 6% of Renewables and 37% of Gas-fired Power Share in 2025 7% of Renewables and 54% of Gas-fired GDP increases 0.6% Energy increases 5.7% CO2 increases 23% GDP increases 0.1% Energy increases 3.3% CO2 increases 1.5% 24
Thank you for your attention! 25