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A Greener Shade of Blue Christopher Pålsson Director IHS Fairplay

20 minutes of What s What s Going On? Possible? Going to Happen?

WHAT S GOING ON?

Intense Activity 50 42.5 Boston 45 42 Bar Harbor Portland 41.5 New York 40 41 Baltimore New York Richmond 40.5 40 35 Philadelphia Wilmington Charleston Savannah 39.5 Baltimore 30 39 38.5 Palm Beach Miami 25 38 Richmond 37.5-80 -75-70 -65-60 -55 20-85 -80-75 -70-65 -60-55 -50-45 -40

Look Wider! 70 60 50 40 30 20 10-105 -85-65 -45-25 -5 15 35

Follow the Supply Chain 70 50 30 10-10 -30-50 -70-180 -130-80 -30 20 70 120 170

Separate the Trade Flows

..or just a single vessel 45 Brovig Wind, IMO 9327281, 2009-07-29 00:59-2009-08-15 02:07 Santander Bilbao 43 Barcelona 41 39 37 Lisbon Algeciras Cartagena Algiers Ceuta 35 33 31 Agadir 29 Tan tan BROVIG WIND Ports 27 Laayoune, 2009-08-05 12:58-2009-08-07 10:55 25-15 -13-11 -9-7 -5-3 -1 1 3 5

WHAT S POSSIBLE?

For Each Vessel; IMO no Long Lat Time IMO no Long Lat Time +X minutes Calculate: Distance Average speed

Emissions Model Traffic data AIS-Live IMO No Vessel data Reg of Ships Engine designation Engine emission characteristics database Emissions calculations Output of results

The speed determines the power outtake Propulsion fuel consumption tonsfuel/day Cruise speed level Port approach level 0 Knots

GT vis-à-vis ME power (kw) Example: Bulk carriers Actual effect could differ substantially.

Add Sulphur ME 1.5% AE 0.1%

A Touch of Abatement where appropriate

Slow Steam Present the results

Total Duration in Port - hours 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 2009 2010 8,000+ teu 5-7,999 teu 3-4,999 teu 2-2,999 teu 1-1,999 teu -999 teu

TEU Capacity of Calling Vessels 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 2009 2010 8,000+ teu 5-7,999 teu 3-4,999 teu 2-2,999 teu 1-1,999 teu -999 teu

CO2 while @ Berth 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 2009 2010-999 teu 1-1,999 teu 2-2,999 teu 3-4,999 teu 5-7,999 teu 8,000+ teu

Que? WHAT S GOING TO HAPPEN?

Global Scenarios to 2030 Global Redesign (Planning case) Rebalanced production & consumption between regions. Global growth propelled by Emerging Markets. Growing tension over nuclear weapons proliferation. Non-fossil fuels increase market share. Energy demand shift away from OECD. OECD oil demand has peaked. Continued resource nationalism. Oil loses monopoly in transportation sector. Successful GHG emissions agreement in latter part. Metamorphosis Non-fossil fuel focus Battery innovation Source: IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates. #### IHS_CERA_Template_MMDD09 2009, Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. Vortex Boom Bust Lost Decade 4 www.ihsglobalscenarios.com

Annual real GDP growth Global Redesign: GDP growth decreases in the old World 15.0 13.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 avg 2.2% avg 1.8% 3.0 1.0-1.0-3.0 United States European Union -5.0 Japan 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Annual real GDP growth Global Redesign: GDP growth decreases in the new World 15.0 avg 6.3% 13.0 11.0 avg 5.9% 9.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 China -1.0 India -3.0 Brazil -5.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Annual real GDP growth Global Redesign: but GDP growth increases in the total World 15.0 13.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 avg 2.9% avg 3.5% 3.0 1.0-1.0-3.0 World -5.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Billions 2005 US dollars Regional Rebalancing of Global GDP 120,000 100,000 33% 80,000 60,000 40,000 Rest of World Brazil India China (excl H-K) Japan European Union United States 10% 13% 21% 20,000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Exports. Billion tonnes. Global Redesign: rebalance of World Exports, tonnes. 25 20 15 10 Rest of World Brazil India China (excl H-K) Japan European Union United States 10% 56% 54% 19% 5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Trade decreased 7% in 2009.

Global Redesign: N America Containerized Imports 30 25 20 15 10 5 S America N America Middle East Europe C America Africa & RoW AustralAsia Asia other Asia FE 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Container fleet, million teu, 1976- Capacity Delivery; More of Everything 20 Forecast 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2010-05 -999 teu 1-1,999 teu 2-2,999 teu 3-4,999 teu 5-7,999 teu 8,000+ teu

20 Minutes of What s What am I talking about? 1,200 container vessels calling or passing US EC ports They were all over the place (when not here) capture route changes Several ship operators are pro-active, but a lot remains to be done: Sulphur Abatement Energy use Energy efficiency Load Factors Routing Upscaling of fleet More capacity to come old technology Tough competition for operators Incitements? Port/fairway dues Rate premium Preferred partner Vetting Long term relationships Risk sharing - integration Corporate Strategy Fear? Environmental care

Thanks to Procul Harum, A whiter shade of pale for inspiration. A Greener Shade of Blue and the truth is plain to see I was feeling kinda seasick Thank you chris.palsson@ihs.com