Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions, 2014-2018 Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Developing Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean United States Euro area Japan Source: International Monetary Fund.
Substantial growth in emerging and developing markets Share of world GDP (percent), based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) Percent 65 60 Developed economies 55 50 45 40 35 30 Developing economies 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: International Monetary Fund.
World s 10 fastest growing economies IMF estimates, annual average GDP growth (2014-2018) Dem Rep of the Congo Mozambique Côte d'ivoire Cambodia Ethiopia China Myanmar Nigeria Uganda Tanzania Source: International Monetary Fund. Note: Excludes countries with populations < 15 million. 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 Percent
Stock market performance Emerging markets vs. mature economies Index (January 2006 = 100) 200 MSCI Emerging Markets 180 160 S&P 500 140 120 100 80 60 MSCI Europe 40 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Datastream.
Performance of emerging market equities By region MSCI Index (January 1, 2010 = 100) 140 130 EMEA 120 Emerging Asia 110 100 90 80 70 Latin America 60 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 EMEA = Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Source: Bloomberg.
Performance of BRIC equities in dollars Index (2000 = 100) 1600 Russia 1400 1200 1000 800 600 Brazil India 400 200 0 China 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: Datastream.
10-year sovereign bond yields Local currency Brazil Turkey Russia India South Africa Indonesia Hungary China Poland Thailand S. Korea 4.4 4.1 3.5 3.5 5.7 9.1 8.9 8.2 7.9 9.8 12.6 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Percent Source: Datastream. Note: Data as of April 17, 2014.
Several emerging markets have lower public debt-to-gdp ratios IMF estimates, 2013 General government gross debt (percent of GDP) 250 200 Emerging markets Advanced economies 176 244 150 100 50 0 14 23 26 36 44 68 67 80 92 93 106 123 124 132 Source: International Monetary Fund.
Central bank target interest rates in advanced countries remain low Policy rate, percent 6 United Kingdom 5 4 3 2 1 United States Japan Eurozone 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bloomberg.
Flight to safety in major advanced countries government bonds 10-year government bond yield, percent 6 United States United Kingdom 5 4 3 2 1 Japan Germany 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bloomberg.
Emerging market currencies depreciate on taper talk US$ per domestic currency unit, index (Jan 2011 = 100) 120 Russian ruble 110 Thai baht 100 90 80 70 Indian rupee Brazilian real 60 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bloomberg.
Gross capital flows to emerging markets US$ billions Other investment Portfolio investment Foreign direct investment 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0-200 -400 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report, April 2014.
China s foreign exchange reserves reach $3.8 trillion International reserves assets (US$ billions) China Japan Saudi Arabia Russia Taiwan Brazil South Korea Eurozone Canada 719 449 419 379 354 229 64 1,213 3,821 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Source: Bloomberg. Note: the latest available data as of April 14, 2014.
China s GDP slows out of double digit growth Annual GDP growth rate Percent change, annual 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: International Monetary Fund.
Emerging market corporate bond issuance US$ billions 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bloomberg.
Ricardo Adrogue s slides
Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Emerging markets external balance Emerging Markets External Balance 2% 1% Current Account / GDP 150 140 0% 130-1% -2% Real Effective Exchange Rate (JP Morgan, right) 120 110-3% 100 Source: Haver Analytics, JP Morgan, Babson Capital LLC, as of September 30, 2013
Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Emerging markets credit 70% Emerging Markets Credit to Private Sector (% of GDP) 60% 50% 40% 30% Source: Haver Analytics, JP Morgan, Babson Capital LLC, as of December 31, 2013
Global fixed income markets Global Fixed Income Market Size ($ trillions) 1,2,3,4 Global Fixed Income Market Size ($ trillions) 1,2,3,4 2013 Growth Since ($ trillions) 2007 Mortgages / Securitized Debt 1 12.01-10.5% Emerging Markets Debt 2 7.48 107.3% Global Investment Grade Corp. 3 7.24 66.1% Global High Yield 4 3.19 25.3% Sources: 1 Mortgages / Securitized Debt: SIFMA 2 Emerging Markets Debt: Bank of America 3 Global Investment Grade Corporate: Barclays Capital Global Corp. Aggregate 4 Global High Yield: Credit Suisse, SIFMA
Madelyn Antoncic s slide
A Picture Tells a Thousand Words Source: United Nations.
In billions of US dollars 2012 Country GDP 450.00 400.00 350.00 300.00 Selected African GDP vs Peripheral Economies 2012 Country GDP (current USD) 384.31 250.00 200.00 150.00 262.60 205.79 262.83 210.77 249.10 212.27 100.00 114.15 50.00 - Angola Nigeria South Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. Ireland Greece Portugal Source: World Bank
2014 WB Doing Business Rankings 200 180 MCSI EM Index Countries 2014 WB Doing Business Rankings 189 160 140 120 100 Countries in red are for comparison purposes. Not included in the MSCI EM Index 92 96 108 116 120 128 134 147 80 60 40 20 0 1 4 6 7 16 18 27 34 41 42 43 45 53 54 69 72 75 Source: World Bank
% Gross External Debt 1200.00% Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 1000.00% 1034.9% 800.00% 600.00% 400.00% 200.00% 0.00% 1.7% 3.4% 9.1% 17.4% 19.4% 19.4% 22.5% 31.0% 32.3% 34.6% 35.7% 238.3% 242.4% 209.6% 129.3% 157.5% 95.4% 48.9% 51.0% 352.5% Source: World Bank, IMF.
USD Billion % FX Public debt vs. International Reserves 2001 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 - (50.00) (100.00) (150.00) (200.00) (250.00) MSCI EM Index Countries FX Public debt vs. International Reserves 2001 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -20.00% -30.00% -40.00% -50.00% Total FX Public debt Total FX reserves Net FX debt to GDP Source: World Bank, IMF, JP Morgan.
USD Billion % FX Public debt vs. International Reserves 2012 600.00 400.00 200.00 - (200.00) (400.00) (600.00) MSCI EM Index Countries FX Public debt vs. International Reserves 2012 3,820.01 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -20.00% -30.00% -40.00% -50.00% Source: World Bank, IMF, JP Morgan. Total FX Public debt Total FX reserves Net FX debt to GDP
In billions of US dollars Reserves 14000 Reserves* 12000 10000 8000 6000 All Countries Developing Countries Advanced Countries 4000 2000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year *including gold at current market value Source: IMF
In months of Imports Reserves to Imports 18.0 Reserves to Imports 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 Developing Countries Advanced Countries 2.0 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Source: IMF
James McCaughan s slide
China Devalues: Winners, Losers Source: Bloomberg, Principal Global Investors