Gulf Container Trade Outlook for 2017 and Beyond

Gulf Container Trade Outlook for 2017 and Beyond Houston, May 15, 2017 Mario.Moreno@ihsmarkit.com

Agenda Gulf coast imports: top sourcing regions, fastest growing commodities, demand drivers and outlook. Gulf coast exports: top regional markets, fastest growing commodities, demand drivers and outlook. Conclusions 2

3 Gulf coast containerized trade following an upward trend Gulf import/export TEU ratio: 0.9. East coast at 1.6 while West Coast at 2.2 1.5 In millions of TEU 25.0 Year-over-year % change 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0 17.2 11.6 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 Imports Exports Imports Exports

Millions of TEU 5 Gulf Coast TEU exports up in 6 of last 7 years Over the last 5 years, Gulf exports grew at a compound annual growth rate of 2.2% 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Gulf Coast Containerized Exports, 2007-2016 1.4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

6 Latin America continues to be the top market for the Gulf East Asia gained significant market share mostly at the expense of Europe 2016 2007 11% 13% 22% East Asia 9% East Asia 28% 37% LATAM Europe Others 40% 40% LATAM Europe Others

7 East Asia led export gains for 3 consecutive years European markets are stubbornly weak In the last 3 years, East Asia contributed most to the Gulf exports trade. Gulf exports were up only 0.9% in 2016: exports to Europe, Latin America subtracted from growth but were entirely offset by East Asian gains. European markets continue to struggle, down for 3 consecutive years. 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 Contribution to Gulf TEU Exports Growth In percentage points 3.6-1.4-1.3 2014 2015 2016 0.0 East Asia Europe LATAM Others

8 China s manufacturing recovery supported gains Paper, cotton, resins posted solid growth Fastest Growing Exports: 2016 TEU Change Filter paper - 10,000 Manufacturing production in China has been recovering since July 2016. Resins exports up 5.5% last year, with India and China as the main drivers of growth. Solid demand for US poultry in Latin America. Poultry shipments to mainland China down, but to Hong Kong up 16%. Why? Wood pulp Fabrics, incl. raw cotton Synth resins, NSPF Mixed metal scrap Synth resins & plastics Poultry

9 Gulf coast exports to grow again in 2017-2018 East Asia will once again lead the gains Gulf TEU Exports Forecast Annual percent change 4.4 4.0 Gulf Coast exports forecast to rise over next 2 years with Houston contributing most to growth. China s manufacturing production rose for the 10 th month in April amid reports of greater inflows of new work. Latin America & Caribbean GDP forecast to rise 1.1 and 2.2% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. 0.9 3.0 US dollar value forecast to continue rising, and peak in early 2018. -2.5 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F

Millions of TEU 11 Gulf Coast TEU imports on the uptrend Over last 5 years, Gulf TEU imports grew at a compound annual growth rate of 7.6% 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Gulf Coast TEU Imports, 2007-2016 1.3 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

12 East Asia continues to be the top sourcing region for Gulf Since 2007, East Asia gained significant market share at Europe and LATAM s expense 2016 2007 3% 3% 27% 39% East Asia LATAM 35% 24% East Asia LATAM Europe Europe 31% Others 38% Others

13 East Asia led import gains for 2 successive years Contribution to Gulf TEU Imports Growth European imports down in 2016 10 8 6 In percentage points 6.6 Gulf TEU imports grew 6.3% in 2016, with East Asia driving the bulk of the growth. The Gulf supports three Asian services that call Houston and Mobile. 4 2 0 1.4 0.1 The Panama Canal expansion last Summer enhanced the attractiveness of Gulf Coast gateways. European imports fell on lower demand, following 6 successive years of growth. -2-4 -1.8 2014 2015 2016 East Asia LATAM Europe Others

14 Housing market gains boosted import demand Furniture, lumber, tiles post solid gains Fastest Growing Imports: 2016 TEU change Furniture 0 10,000 20,000 Logs & lumber Furniture imports up 30% in 2016; up for 5 consecutive years. Single-family housing starts in West South Central region up in 2016 for 5 th consecutive year. Existing home sales in West South Central region up in 2016 for 6 th consecutive year. Auto tires imports from China registered solid growth, but from Europe declined. Veneers, plywood Ceramic, mosaic tiles Auto tires Plastic prod, misc. Scrap paper

15 Gulf coast imports to grow again in 2017-2018 East Asia will once again lead the gains 9.7 Gulf TEU Import Forecast Annual percent change 10.6 Gulf coast TEU imports forecast to continue expanding for the next 2 years. US real GDP forecast to rise 2.2 and 2.7% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. 6.3 5.8 4.8 Home sales and home construction forecast to continue expanding in West South Central region, and beyond. Import prices (exc. Oil) are forecast to stay subdued on the back of a strong USD. 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F

Conclusions Gulf containerized exports forecast to expand over 2017-2018 on the back of a recovering global manufacturing sector. Latin America continues to be the top market for Gulf exports but China s market share is quickly rising. Gulf containerized imports forecast to continue trending upward over 2017-2018 as the regional housing market continues to improve. The expansion of the Panama Canal enhanced the attractiveness of Gulf coast gateways. 16