Deutsche Bank. Consensus Report. 13 March 2018

Transcription

1 Deutsche Bank Consensus Report 13 March 2018

2 Deutsche Bank Group P&L (in m) Average Minimum Maximum # est. Average Minimum Maximum # est. Average Minimum Maximum # est. Average Minimum Maximum # est. Revenues 7,645 7,287 8, ,555 26,893 28, ,277 27,293 29, ,033 27,755 30, Compensation and benefits (3,133) (3,295) (3,040) 11 (11,987) (12,475) (11,619) 11 (11,801) (12,367) (11,408) 11 (11,806) (12,185) (11,381) 11 Non-Compensation expenses (3,318) (3,546) (3,075) 11 (12,185) (12,813) (11,549) 11 (11,620) (12,498) (10,690) 11 (11,152) (11,997) (10,097) 11 Total noninterest expenses (6,453) (6,673) (6,115) 12 (24,182) (24,729) (23,600) 13 (23,429) (24,206) (22,651) 13 (22,930) (23,795) (22,100) 13 Restructuring and severance (132) (200) (29) 12 (556) (750) (200) 13 (372) (600) (200) 13 (201) (500) 0 13 Litigation (113) (300) (633) (1,600) (280) 12 (408) (800) 0 12 (331) (600) 0 11 Other non-operating expenses (incl. Impairments) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Adjusted Costs (6,215) (6,508) (5,865) 12 (23,028) (23,415) (22,574) 13 (22,671) (23,256) (22,000) 13 (22,444) (23,195) (21,597) 13 Provision for credit losses (152) (215) (96) 12 (657) (859) (385) 13 (808) (1,075) (555) 13 (905) (1,200) (638) 13 IBIT reported 1, , ,717 1,769 3, ,040 2,739 5, ,198 3,378 6, IBIT adjusted 1, , ,871 3,090 4, ,798 3,379 5, ,684 3,932 7, Net income reported , , ,603 1,645 3, ,445 2,297 4, Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests (27) (90) (4) 11 (121) (427) (20) 12 (146) (483) (20) 12 (157) (490) (20) 12 Net income attributable to DB shareholders and additional equity components , , ,481 1,476 3, ,286 2,068 4, Net income adjusted , ,305 1,987 2, ,997 2,162 3, ,639 2,523 4, Ratios (in %) CIR 84.5% 80.3% 88.1% % 84.0% 90.5% % 79.4% 87.2% % 74.7% 84.8% 13 CIR adjusted 81.7% 78.4% 84.6% % 81.9% 86.0% % 76.9% 84.9% % 72.9% 82.8% 13 RoTE reported (post-tax) 4.5% 2.6% 6.6% % 1.6% 4.0% % 2.9% 5.8% % 3.9% 7.1% 12 RoTE adjusted (post-tax) 5.7% 3.8% 8.1% % 3.6% 5.3% % 3.7% 6.3% % 4.3% 7.5% 11 Per share data (in ) Fully diluted number of shares (period-end, in m) 2,129 2,075 2, ,118 2,075 2, ,116 2,075 2, ,114 2,067 2, EPS diluted (net income reported) 0.26 (0.02) (0.07) (0.05) (0.05) EPS diluted (net income adjusted) Dividend per share n/a n/a n/a n/a Tangible book value per share Balance sheet (in bn) Total assets (IFRS) 1,492 1,434 1, ,482 1,434 1, ,488 1,435 1, ,504 1,436 1, Total loans (end of period) Shareholders' equity Tangible equity (for RoTE calculation) CRD4 RWA (fully loaded) CRD4 CET1 capital (fully loaded) n/a n/a n/a n/a CRD4 CET1 ratio (fully loaded, in %) n/a n/a n/a n/a 13.9% 13.6% 14.8% % 13.0% 14.4% % 12.5% 14.8% 12 CRD4 leverage exposure 1,405 1,356 1, ,395 1,325 1, ,389 1,220 1, ,400 1,220 1, Leverage capital (Tier1 capital fully loaded) CRD4 leverage ratio (fully loaded, in %) 3.7% 3.4% 4.0% % 3.5% 4.2% % 3.6% 4.8% % 3.8% 5.0% 12 Note: Quarterly RoTE figures are annualized 1

3 Corporate & Investment Bank Global Transaction Banking , ,949 3,780 4, ,068 3,886 4, ,167 3,924 4, Equity Origination Debt Origination ,318 1,150 1, ,340 1,150 1, ,359 1,150 1, Advisory Financing ,291 2,126 2, ,349 2,162 2, ,401 2,206 2, Sales & Trading (Equity) ,137 2,000 2, ,189 2,050 2, ,236 2,050 2, Sales & Trading (FIC) 1,596 1,128 1, ,571 4,000 4, ,722 4,183 5, ,849 4,267 5, Other (52) (177) 0 11 (183) (708) 0 12 (168) (496) 0 12 (166) (417) 0 12 Revenues (reported) 4,356 3,673 4, ,019 14,476 15, ,456 14,714 15, ,808 15,005 16, Debt Valuation Adjustments (DVA) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Revenues (adjusted) 4,358 3,673 4, ,034 14,476 15, ,481 14,714 15, ,855 15,005 16, Total noninterest expenses (3,578) (3,902) (3,205) 11 (12,892) (13,557) (12,460) 11 (12,617) (13,203) (12,257) 11 (12,455) (13,028) (11,896) 11 Restructuring and severance n/a n/a n/a n/a (195) (400) 0 10 (112) (400) 0 10 (46) (175) 0 10 Adjusted cost base (3,487) (3,830) (3,092) 11 (12,524) (12,898) (12,074) 11 (12,422) (12,812) (12,095) 11 (12,319) (12,578) (11,896) 11 Provision for credit losses (65) (100) (25) 10 (271) (400) (100) 10 (363) (500) (242) 10 (428) (600) (321) 10 IBIT reported , ,770 1,038 3, ,394 1,604 3, ,856 1,898 3, IBIT adjusted , , , ,693 1,822 3, ,140 2,228 4, CRD4 RWA (fully loaded, in bn) n/a n/a n/a n/a CRD4 leverage exposure (in bn) n/a n/a n/a n/a 1, , , , , ,

4 Private & Commercial Bank Private & Commercial Clients 1,293 1,216 1, ,094 4,863 5, ,213 5,009 5, ,380 5,013 5, Postbank ,161 2,825 3, ,210 2,800 3, ,272 2,850 3, Wealth Management ,866 1,511 2, ,914 1,483 2, ,959 1,455 2, Revenues (reported) 2,560 2,469 2, ,093 9,787 10, ,287 9,725 10, ,543 9,664 11, Revenues (adjusted) 2,574 2,469 2, ,121 9,787 10, ,337 9,725 10, ,612 9,664 11, Total noninterest expenses (2,230) (2,300) (2,090) 11 (8,806) (9,030) (8,395) 11 (8,463) (8,725) (8,038) 11 (8,258) (8,870) (7,774) 11 Restructuring and severance n/a n/a n/a n/a (223) (400) 0 10 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Adjusted cost base (2,174) (2,250) (2,090) 11 (8,591) (8,774) (8,395) 11 (8,292) (8,712) (7,938) 11 (8,142) (8,870) (7,672) 11 Provision for credit losses (83) (121) (66) 11 (351) (484) (265) 11 (399) (500) (312) 11 (439) (519) (316) 11 IBIT reported , , , , , IBIT adjusted , , , , ,048 1,002 2, CRD4 RWA (fully loaded, in bn) n/a n/a n/a n/a CRD4 leverage exposure (in bn) n/a n/a n/a n/a Deutsche Asset Management Revenues (reported) n/a n/a n/a n/a 2,661 2,526 3, ,712 2,536 2, ,827 2,601 3, Revenues (adjusted) , ,660 2,526 3, ,716 2,536 2, ,830 2,601 3, Total noninterest expenses (446) (486) (408) 10 (1,811) (1,990) (1,725) 10 (1,823) (2,085) (1,637) 10 (1,858) (2,176) (1,647) 10 Restructuring and severance n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Adjusted cost base (440) (465) (408) 10 (1,775) (1,894) (1,642) 10 (1,808) (1,989) (1,629) 10 (1,843) (2,080) (1,639) 10 Provision for credit losses (0) (1) 0 10 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a IBIT reported n/a n/a n/a n/a , , , IBIT adjusted , , , Assets under management (in bn) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Net new money (in bn) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 3

5 Consolidation & Adjustments Revenues (reported) n/a n/a n/a n/a (293) (600) (100) 10 (293) (600) (140) 10 (293) (600) (140) 10 Revenues (adjusted) (87) (252) (25) 10 (303) (600) (100) 11 (303) (600) (140) 11 (303) (600) (140) 11 Total noninterest expenses (123) (425) (2) 10 (628) (1,650) (17) 10 (465) (1,300) (17) 10 (318) (1,000) 0 10 Restructuring and severance n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Adjusted cost base (35) (72) (2) 10 (126) (200) (17) 10 (129) (200) (17) 10 (122) (200) 0 10 Provision for credit losses n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a IBIT reported n/a n/a n/a n/a (910) (1,943) (332) 10 (734) (1,593) (332) 10 (587) (1,293) (332) 10 IBIT adjusted (128) (319) (75) 10 (425) (692) (300) 10 (426) (692) (250) 10 (420) (692) (200) 10 4

6 Disclaimer The consensus figures appearing in the above tables are the arithmetic averages for each financial item of the estimates Deutsche Bank received from research analysts. To enhance comparability among the divergent methods employed by various analysts that cover Deutsche Bank in preparing their estimates, Deutsche Bank requested the 34 analysts that, to the best of Deutsche Bank s knowledge, cover Deutsche Bank via written research reports on a regular basis to provide their estimates for each of the line items appearing in the table. Of these analysts, 13 have provided estimates in the format requested, and Deutsche Bank included the estimates of all of these analysts to arrive at the consensus figures in the table above. Deutsche Bank excluded submissions or parts of submissions that were incomplete, but included top-level figures where analysts elected not to provide the more detailed levels of figures. Figures are only shown in case 10 estimates have been provided for an individual figure. The opinions, estimates, forecasts and recommendations of analysts, and the consensus information appearing above derived from them, regarding Deutsche Bank s performance are those of the analysts alone and do not represent opinions, estimates or forecasts of Deutsche Bank or its management. By presenting the consensus information above, Deutsche Bank does not endorse or concur with any of such analysts opinions, estimates, forecasts or recommendations. Deutsche Bank has not verified any of the information it has received and none of Deutsche Bank, its affiliates or their respective directors, officers and employees make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to, or accept any responsibility for, the accuracy or completeness of the consensus information or otherwise endorse or concur with any of the consensus information. Deutsche Bank does not assume any responsibility to update, revise or supplement such information. This consensus summary is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to, nor does it, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. 5