Minnesota Twins Daily Clips. Monday, January 24, 2017

Transcription

1 Minnesota Twins Daily Clips Monday, January 24, 2017 Byron Buxton embracing simplified approach to 2017 Twins season. Star Tribune (Miller) p. 1 Dodgers trade for second baseman -- but it isn't Brian Dozier. Star Tribune. (Staff) p. 2 Inbox: Mulling good candidates for relief help. MLB (Bollinger) p. 2 After Twins signed Molitor as FA, history followed. MLB (Bollinger) p. 4 Dozier staying put? Dodgers trade Jose De Leon for another second baseman. ESPN 1500 (Wetmore) p. 5 Can Brian Dozier match his 42 home run season in 2017?. ESPN (Doolittle) p. 5 Blyleven says Twins' improvement has to start with pitching. West Fargo Pioneer (Peterson) p. 7 Byron Buxton embracing simplified approach to 2017 Twins season Phil Miller Star Tribune January 24, 2017 NEW PRAGUE, MINN. -- By Byron Buxton s reckoning, 2016 was the most aggravating, unsettling season of his professional career. Yet he was a little sorry to see it end. That s what happens when line drives start to fall in, when fly balls start to carry over the fence, when strikeouts don t corrode his confidence. The Twins gave their top prospect three extended chances to establish himself in the major leagues last year, but he fizzled in April; floundered in June and July; and was so fed up by the time he returned in September, he forswore his over-plotted, sometimes paralyzing, approach at the plate. Best decision he ever made. September was a month I just told myself not to think about anything anymore. Just go out and have fun and play baseball, Buxton said Monday after a crowd-pleasing Twins winter caravan appearance, along with pitcher Trevor May and Twins Hall of Famer Tony Oliva, at the New Prague Knights of Columbus hall. That s what I did, and that s when things started being a little more manageable for me to tolerate. He had tolerated calamitous injuries and occasional slumps during his five minor league seasons, but never before had faced what he was encountering nearly every day in a Twins uniform: failure. Spirit-crushing failure. It was rough last year. I ve never failed in my career, so it was very tough to start the year the way I did, Buxton told the lunchtime crowd in this small farming community about a 45-minute drive southwest of Target Field. Just trying to keep my head focused on positive things was hard. It took me twice getting sent down to figure out, OK, I just need to relax. Just stop worrying about, OK, my hands aren t in the right place, or something is wrong with [my stance]. Buxton is not the first phenom to stumble in the major leagues, particularly at such a young age. After all, he only turned 23 in December. Of his 469 career plate appearances, only one has come against a pitcher younger than him, a strikeout against 22-year-old Seattle righthander Edwin Diaz. Doubts begin to surface, though, in fans minds and in his own, when the numbers are so humbling. Buxton s career batting average was.199 when he rejoined the Twins in September, with almost twice as many strikeouts (124) as hits (65). His superior defense in center field earned him playing time, but his deficiencies in the batter s box kept him glued to the No. 9 spot in the order. His forget-it-all attitude, though, delivered a September to remember.

2 In his first at-bat upon his recall, Buxton smashed a curveball from White Sox All-Star lefthander Jose Quintana into Target Field s second deck. He collected two hits the next day, then three more, with a home run, the day after that. Then came three more hits, including his first grand slam. You could tell [the difference]. I was having fun, the team started to have fun, and we started hitting better, Buxton said. Before that outburst, One strikeout would lead to another, and another, and by then, it was me getting sent down to Triple-A. The only way for me to come out and showcase anything was to come out and have fun. I did as much as I could in September. It was plenty. Buxton, who had three home runs in his career to that point, walloped nine more after Sept. 1, including an inside-the-park homer off Chris Sale on the first pitch of the season finale against the White Sox. He doubled his career RBI total from 22 to 44. He drew 10 walks and posted a.357 on-base percentage, slugged.653 to give him an OPS of for the final month, and while he also whiffed 38 times in 29 games, he kept them from becoming epidemic. My mind wasn t wandering anymore Uh-oh, I struck out this many times, Buxton said. It was more like, OK, whatever. One strikeout isn t going to hurt anything. Just keep playing. That simple-yet-profound revelation has guided his offseason, too, and Buxton is eager to see how much improvement he can make in He would like to take better advantage of hitter s counts, for instance. Buxton worked the count to 2-0 in 45 major league plate appearances last year, and to 3-1 on 25 occasions, yet collected only three hits in those situations. It s a matter of being more consistent, Buxton said. I m taking what I did [in September] and focusing on repeating that. Dodgers trade for second baseman -- but it isn't Brian Dozier Staff Star Tribune January 24, 2017 The Los Angeles Dodgers traded pitching prospect Jose De Leon for a second baseman. But it wasn t Brian Dozier. De Leon, said to be the Twins primary target in trade talks for Dozier, was shipped to the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday, the teams announced, with second baseman Logan Forsythe headed to Los Angeles. The trade almost certainly ends any talks with the Dodgers about Dozier, whose 42 home runs last season were the most ever by an AL second baseman, and probably means Dozier will open the 2017 season with the Twins. De Leon, 24, made his big league debut in September and was 2-0 with a 6.35 ERA in four starts, but he remained one of the highest-rated pitching prospects in the game. New Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, however, was believed to be holding out for at least one other top prospect from the Dodgers. Forsythe, 30, hit a career-high 20 homers last year, when he hit.264 with 52 RBI in 127 games. The Dodgers are excited about acquiring Forsythe, a player manager Dave Roberts knows from the second baseman's days with the San Diego Padres. "We feel like he will fit in incredibly well with the fabric of our group," Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said, adding that obtaining Forsythe fills the team's "most acute need" after it re-signed three free agents in closer Kenley Jansen, third baseman Justin Turner and starting pitcher Rich Hill. "He's a grinder, a professional hitter who can really handle left-handed pitching and has some versatility," Friedman said. Inbox: Mulling good candidates for relief help Rhett Bollinger MLB January 20, 2017 MINNEAPOLIS -- With the annual Diamond Awards coming up on Thursday and TwinsFest this weekend, it's a sure sign that Spring Training is right around the corner. Things can still happen with the Twins' roster, but time is starting to run out with pitchers and catchers set to report to Fort Myers, Fla. on Feb. 14. With that in mind, here's this week's Twins Inbox: 2

3 are the twins planning on adding relief help this offeseason still? If so, who are good candidates? As manager Paul Molitor mentioned last week on Twins Caravan, the Twins are monitoring the relief market and could add a veteran to their bullpen. Notable free-agent relievers include Joe Blanton, Greg Holland, Tommy Hunter, Sergio Romo, Joe Smith and former Twins closer Joe Nathan. With Glen Perkins returning from injury and Brandon Kintzler on the roster, the Twins aren't looking for a closer, but simply a veteran arm to join an inexperienced bullpen that is expected to lean heavily on relievers such as Ryan Pressly and are the twins assuming Perkins and Hughes going to back at 100% this coming season? if not who gets their spots Molitor also gave updates on both Perkins and Phil Hughes while on caravan, but both surgeries carry a fair amount of risk, so it's hard to assume they'll both be healthy and their usual selves this season. Perkins, coming off labrum surgery, has a much tougher road than Hughes, who had rib resection surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome. Perkins, though, has been working hard to make a comeback, as he's been rehabbing at the club's Spring Training complex in Fort Myers since early January. They're hopeful he'll throw off a mound by early-to-mid February with a chance to get into Spring Training games in mid-march. If he's not ready to open the year, Kintzler is the natural replacement at closer. Hughes, meanwhile, has already started his throwing program and should be on a normal schedule once Spring Training begins. But the Twins will be cautious with Hughes, and if he opens the year on the disabled list, it'll open the door for another youngster to make the rotation, such as Jose Berrios or even Which player unlikely to be on the opening day roster will have the biggest impact on the Twins this season? This is a fun question, and there are several Twins prospects who aren't likely to make the team but could have an impact this season, such as Stephen Gonsalves, Nick Burdi, Mason Melotakis, Daniel Palka and Mitch Garver. There's even a chance a pitcher such as Berrios or May goes to the Minors to open the year to work on things. But I'm going to go with lefty Adalberto Mejia, who is likely to start the year at Triple-A Rochester but is very close to being Major League ready. Mejia, acquired in the trade that sent Eduardo Nunez to the Giants, has the size and stuff to be a solid mid-rotation starter and should get his first extended crack in the Majors keep Dozier trade Polanco? Is Santana no longer an option at SS? At this point, a Brian Dozier trade is looking increasingly less likely, which means the Twins will open with Dozier at second and Jorge Polanco at short. But as noted before, there are several people even within the Twins' organization who believe Polanco is better suited for second and isn't a good enough defender at short. While there have been no rumblings about a Polanco trade, it could make sense if they want to upgrade defensively at short and keep Dozier. They could sign a veteran such as Erick Aybar for defensive reasons and then have Eduardo Escobar around as the backup. Danny Santana can play short, but he is more of an most important question of all: any new food items in the concessions at target field this year? It's a very important question, but unfortunately the new foods will not be announced until right before the start of the season. There's even a media event to taste the new food and beverage items, but I always miss it while I'm at Spring Training. 3

4 After Twins signed Molitor as FA, history followed Rhett Bollinger MLB January 23, 2017 Before bidding adieu to the Hot Stove season, we asked our 30 beat reporters to look back at their club's past and answer the following question: Who is the best free-agent signing in the team's history? We narrowed the choices with the following parameters: The signings had to be multiyear contracts, to exclude fluky one-year deals and to focus on players who got real commitments. And contract extensions don't count. Only instances when every team in the league had a chance to bid on the player were allowed, including international free agents who received Major League contracts. MINNEAPOLIS -- The Twins have never been in the business of handing out mega-contracts in free agency. Their largest free-agent deal for a pitcher outside the organization is Ervin Santana's four-year, $55 million contract, while Jason Castro's three-year, $24.5 million deal is their biggest for a position player. It doesn't mean the Twins haven't had success in free agency, however, as they've signed many key contributors over the years. But Minnesota's best is Hall of Famer and current Twins manager Paul Molitor's two-year, $5.5 million deal signed before the 1996 season. At the time of the deal, Molitor was 39 years old and coming off a down year, by his standards, with the Blue Jays. But the St. Paul native had a season for the ages in his first year with his hometown team, batting.341/.390/.468 with 113 RBIs and a league-leading 225 hits in a career-high 161 games. He also made history on Sept. 16, when he became the first player to reach 3,000 hits with a triple, a feat only matched by Ichiro Suzuki last year. It was also the second time in three years a St. Paul native reached 3,000 hits with his hometown team, as Dave Winfield also reached 3,000 hits with Minnesota in '93. Molitor batted.305/.351/.435 in 135 games in 1997 and opted to re-sign with Minnesota for one last year. Molitor hit.281/.335/.382 in 126 games in his 21st and final season in the Majors. Molitor's strong end to his career with the Twins allowed him to finish with 3,319 hits and a lifetime.306 average and 504 stolen bases. He's one of only four players to finish with at least 3,000 hits, 500 stolen bases and a.300 average, joining Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner and Eddie Collins -- with Ichiro likely to be included, boasting a.313 average heading into his 17th Major League season. The signing also began a strong relationship between Molitor and his hometown club, as he joined manager Tom Kelly's coaching staff immediately after retiring, serving as bench coach for three seasons. He remained involved with the Twins in various roles throughout the years, including stints as a Minor League instructor and as a coach under Ron Gardenhire in '14. He was then hired as the club's manager before the '15 season after Gardenhire was dismissed. So it's fair to think that if Molitor never signed with the Twins, he wouldn't be their manager today. Honorable mentions RHP Jack Morris: It's the most famous of all Twins signings, as Morris pitched like an ace in 1991 and delivered one of the more memorable performances of all-time with his 10-inning shutout in Game 7 of the '91 World Series. But it was only a one-year deal and therefore doesn't qualify for this exercise. DH Chili Davis: The Twins signed Davis to a two-year deal before the 1991 season, and he immediately provided much-needed power, batting.277/.385/.507 with 29 homers and 93 RBIs in 153 games. He also hit two homers in the '91 World Series. His numbers declined a bit in '92 with 12 homers and 66 RBIs before he returned to the Angels as a free agent. He had a strong case to be the best multiyear signing for the Twins considering his impact on the World Series title, but Molitor has had more overall impact on the organization. C Brian Harper: Harper is one of the more underrated Twins players and joined the club as a free agent prior to the 1988 season after playing parts of eight seasons with five different teams. Harper had his breakout year in '89, hitting a career-high.325 in 126 games. He played six years for Minnesota, batting.306/.342/.431, and was part of the World Series-winning team in '91. Harper is definitely the best buy-low free-agent acquisition in Twins history. 4

5 Dozier staying put? Dodgers trade Jose De Leon for another second baseman Derek Wetmore 1500 ESPN January 23, 2017 The Dodgers and Rays on Monday agreed to a trade that will send second baseman Logan Forsythe west to fill Los Angeles need. It s a one-forone trade that has top pitching prospect Jose De Leon packing for Tampa/St. Pete. De Leon was the primary target in Dozier trade talks between the Twins and Dodgers, but according to reports the Twins were asking for more than just the prized prospect for their star second baseman. Dozier has two years and $15 million left on a team-friendly contract. He hit 42 home runs last season after a wicked slump for the first 7-8 weeks of the year. Forsythe is not quite the player that Dozier is, so this looks on the surface like a nice return for the Rays, who seem to always covet pitching, young players and years of team control. De Leon checks all three boxes. There s always risk, of course, developing pitching prospects. De Leon surfaced in the big leagues last year with some rocky outings, but his minor league numbers are outstanding and he appears to have the strikeout stuff that should make him a success at the highest level, if everything breaks his way. Last year, Forsythe batted.254/.327/.405 with a career-high 20 home runs and 52 RBIs. That s a far cry from Dozier s.268/.340/.546 (42 home runs, 99 RBIs). But if the Twins were asking the Dodgers to give up way more than just De Leon, and Los Angeles felt it could get an upgrade over its current second base situation without giving up an arm and a leg for Dozier, this trade could make sense through that lens. Plus, like Dozier, Forsythe should help the Dodgers against left-handed pitching, an area in which the team struggled last year. The right-handed-hitting Forsythe batted.270/.315/.461 against lefties last year, and.278/.343/.475 against them in his career. In January, Forsythe signed a contract extension to avoid salary arbitration, which means he ll be paid $5.75 million in 2017 and the Dodgers now have an $8.5 million team option for (Several performance incentives could bring that total to $11 million for 2018, and there s a $1 million buyout if L.A. declines the option, according to Baseball Prospectus.) On the Twins front, Dozier s value may never be higher. My argument this offseason has been that the Twins would be wise to move him now, and if they can target quality pitching in a deal it s a bonus. Apparently they had one fish on the line in the Dodgers, but couldn t come to an agreement over how much Dozier is worth. They could still trade him at this year s non-waiver trade deadline if they decide that s the right path. At that point, they will have run the risk that Dozier slumped for any stretch, like he has each of the past three seasons. More to the point, in my mind, is that any team trading for him at that time will essentially be buying him for one year and two months, as opposed to two full seasons they would have been shopping for this winter. I suppose it s possible that demand goes up at the trade deadline and the supply is not there to match it, thereby driving up the asking price for Dozier. I don t know how likely that scenario is, and in a vacuum without that forunate supply/demand change for the Twins, the math doesn t add up. Lastly, the Dodgers landing a second baseman doesn t mean that Dozier can t be dealt the rest of the offseason, or even in spring training. Based on the news that has trickled out this winter, it just doesn t seem all that likely. For now, Dozier is staying put. And that s a good thing if you had your heart set on the Twins winning more games in Can Brian Dozier match his 42 home run season in 2017? Bradford Doolittle ESPN January 24, 2017 Minnesota's Brian Dozier set a record last season. You probably know that if you're reading this, but it came with such little fanfare that you could be excused for missing it. What record? We'll get to that in a second. In the non-cubs genre, the 2016 season will be remembered for its proliferation of power. Hitters hammered the second-most homers in history, just 83 shy of the record set in There were 1,424 more homers hit last season than in 2014, the largest two-year jump in history (excepting seasons influenced by labor strife or expansion). You might think that a slew of records would have fallen amid a league-wide explosion of long balls. That didn't really happen. The big league leader (Baltimore's Mark Trumbo) had just 47. A nice total but also one that has been surpassed 73 times. All of those extra homers were distributed pretty widely. But there was one position that stood out: Dozier's at the keystone corner. His 42 home runs set an American League record for second 5

6 basemen and fell just one shy of Davey Johnson's big league mark. That's a flashy number but one easily overlooked for a couple of reasons. All those homers came on a Twins team that dropped 103 games, the most the franchise has lost since leaving Washington after the 1960 season. It's a familiar story for Dozier, whose 111 homers over the past four years is 10 more than second-place Robinson Cano among second basemen. But during that span, Minnesota's 370 losses are the most in baseball. There's another reason why Dozier's numbers don't pop like you'd think: He's part of a bulging group of second basemen who have created a sort of golden age at the position. Along with Cano, Jose Altuve, Ian Kinsler, Daniel Murphy, Jason Kipnis and Dustin Pedroia, among others, teams are getting more offense from second base than ever before. According to baseball-reference.com, teams got an average of 3.0 offensive WAR from second basemen in That's a half-win more than any other season in the past 20 years. There were 13 players who played at least half their games at second base and hit at least 20 homers. That's 11 more than 2015 and four more than any season before that. In fact, there were more 20-homer seasons by second basemen in 2015 than in every decade in baseball history before the 1990s. The 1950s, 60s and 70s saw a combined 12 such seasons. The 1980s had just 10. In that context, Dozier's season was more emblematic than iconic. That leaves us with the real question: Can he do it again? TRADE RUMORS We may not have all the information we need because it's not a cinch that Dozier will return to Minnesota, though it seems likely at this point of the offseason that will be the case. It's easy to understand why Dozier would be such a hot name in the rumor mill. He turns 30 in May. His 2016 numbers certainly scream "career season!" The Twins have a nice group of young position players who have already reached the majors, but it's likely going to take a couple of years for them to mature and be augmented. Dozier is signed through next season on a team-friendly contract, making his trade value as high now as it's likely ever going to be. Minnesota turned shortstop over to Jorge Polanco late last season, and the arrival of top prospect Nick Gordon -- also a middle infielder -- could coincide with the expiration of Dozier's deal. That said, we'll proceed as if Dozier will play the 2017 season in Minnesota. The most salient fact in that regard is the park, one that is not severe for power hitters. In fact, Target Field is actually a pretty good park for righty power hitters. Last season, Dozier hit 21 homers at home and 21 on the road. WHAT CHANGED FOR DOZIER As illustrated by Dozier's aforementioned composite numbers from the past four seasons, his power breakout was not all that extreme. He has been one of baseball's better homer-hitting middle infielders for a few years now. Some of his other numbers from last season stand out more, such as his.268 batting average and.280 BABIP. But we're more concerned with his power hitting, so let's stick with that. Dozier's strikeout and walk rates were right on target with his 2015 seasons, so he was putting the ball into play at about the same rate. However, the character of those balls was different in two key ways. First, more were fly balls, and a higher portion of those fly balls left the yard. In 2016, 47.1 percent of Dozier's balls in play were flies, up 4.7 percent from That corresponded with a 6 percent drop in line-drive rate, suggesting a pronounced effort to create more loft with his swing. It worked; 16.7 percent of his fly balls left the yard. That was up from 9.7 percent in That makes this area one ripe for possible regression in ADJUSTMENTS Dozier is a tinkerer, but one who typically has some rhyme to his reason. In an illuminating Q&A with Fangraphs, Dozier offered up what might have been the most sabermetrically friendly quote of any player all season, saying, "I'm about one thing, and that's creating runs." Dozier has learned what parts of his game are conducive to creating offense, and he has set out to maximize his strengths to correlate with those factors. It has worked. He has become the most extreme pull hitter in the game. Dozier hit the ball to the left side 57 percent of the time in 2016, tops among 146 qualifying hitters -- Edwin Encarnacion was a distant second at 52.2 percent. And that was actually down 4.9 percent from 2015, when Dozier 6

7 was also baseball's most pull-heavy hitter. In 2013, he pulled the ball just 44 percent of the time, so this has been a significant in-career adjustment. Additionally, Dozier has developed a more aggressive approach at the plate. He walked 89 times in 2014 but has taken just 61 bases on balls in each of the past two seasons. He's far less prone to strike out looking than he was early in his career, but the aggression has not come at the expense of bloated strikeout rates or a deflated on-base percentage. Dozier seems to have improved his fundamentals over the past few years, but his body seems to be better as well. Or at least stronger. According to ESPN's home run tracker, Dozier's homers traveled an average of 12.7 feet farther last year. He'd hit just two homers classified as "no-doubter" before last season, when he hit nine of them. REGRESSION IS A... If you were to burrow into the career seasons of any player, you'd probably find sound, objective explanations for their sudden spike of success. And yet, kind of like the Iron Bank of Braavos, the regression monster will have its due. Indeed, ESPN's Dan Szymborski projects Dozier for 31 homers and an.815 OPS for the coming season. The 2017 Bill James Handbook has Dozier at 30 homers and a.785 OPS. Yes, regression will have its due, but here's the thing: Regression is likely but not inevitable. This leaves us in the realm of the subjective. Self-awareness goes a long way in sports, and Dozier seems to understand his own game better than most. The adjustments he has made during his career have not just paid off handsomely, but they've tended to stick. This may explain a player who, in 2012, broke into the majors at the age of 25 with a career total of 16 minor league homers over 1,613 plate appearances. Since then, he has hit 117 big league homers. Dozier has shown a consistent and amazing capacity for improvement over his career. Yet there are questions: - Can the Twins aid Dozier by improving their lineup behind him, if only through the maturation of young players such as Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Miguel Sano? - Was some of Dozier's long-ball spike largely a product of a league-wide wave of homers that could ding his numbers if the wave rolls back? - Will pitchers find a way to exploit his extreme approach, requiring more adjustments on Dozier's part? - Will he ultimately be moved for prospects and end up in less power-friendly environments? There is a lot about Dozier's story that makes you think he is capable of bucking the regression monster. Yet, it would not be a smart bet. But if he does, a run at Johnson's big league record isn't out of the question. Still, even if Dozier isn't again breaking records that few hear about, chances are strong he will be one of the more valuable players in the game. Blyleven says Twins' improvement has to start with pitching Eric Peterson West Fargo Pioneer January 23, 2017 FARGO The Minnesota Twins lost 103 games last season, but 200 is a number Hall of Fame pitcher and Twins broadcaster Bert Blyleven brought up at the Sanctuary Events Center. "A lot of things have to change, but it comes down to starting pitching," Blyleven said. "Do we have that guy that can pitch 200 innings other than maybe Ervin Santana? No." The Twins Winter Caravan made a stop in Fargo on Monday, Jan. 23. Formers Twins outfielder and radio analyst Dan Gladden, team president Dave St. Peter, pitcher Jose Berrios and catcher John Ryan Murphy joined Blyleven. The aforementioned Santana pitcher innings in 30 starts to lead the Twins. The veteran right-hander went 7-11 with a 3.38 ERA. The 22- year-old Berrios made his Major League debut last season, pitching 58.1 innings in 14 starts. "It starts on the mound," Gladden said. "I can't sit here and tell you that there's one thing.... There's so many things that need to be addressed for this ballclub to go forward." 7

8 Coming off a disappointing 2016, the Twins changed their front office this offseason, hiring chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine. Minnesota pitchers and catcher report to spring training on Feb. 13 with the first full workout on Feb. 19. "I think they want to get down to spring training (and) find out the personnel," Gladden said. "Rather than just try to implode it right away, I think they're going to take their time and see what happens in spring training." Twins second baseman Brian Dozier is coming off a monster season, batting.268 with 42 home runs and 99 RBIs. Dozier has been the subject of offseason trade talks, but those have quieted of late. The Los Angeles Dodgers, one of the reported teams interested in Dozier, made a trade for a Tampa Bay second baseman Logan Forsythe on Monday. "He's got some value, but at the same time you need somebody to replace that player," Gladden said of potentially dealing Dozier. The Twins had a 5.08 team ERA last season, ranking 29 out of 30 teams in Major League Baseball. Blyleven said starting pitchers like Kyle Gibson, Berrios and Tyler Duffey need to prove that they can provide quality innings nearing that 200 mark. Blyleven added Falvey and Levine are going to need to rebuild that starting staff along with the rest of the team. "It's up to these guys to build a winning ballclub, they're really starting from ground zero after the frustration of the year last year," Blyleven said. "It's going to be patience and Twins fans have always shown good patience.... Going as a fan now, you just want to see consistency." 8