Double Pair Comparisons PART III AGE & GENDER. Age and Crash Risk. Subject & control groups Relative risk or rate. Relative Accident Involvement Ratio

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1 Double Pair Comparisons PART III AGE & GENDER Subject & control groups Relative risk or rate Ratio of subject to control Relative Accident Involvement Ratio Age and Crash Risk RAIR = % at-fault % not at-fault % not at-fault is indicative of relative amount of driving under different circumstances Fataility Rate (100 million VMT) Age Group Source: Cerelli, Ezio (1989), Older Drivers, The Age Factor in Traffic Safety, Publication No. DOT HS

Gender and Age, 1978-1998 Age and Year Rel. Acc.

Involvement Ratio 16-19 25-29 35-39 45-49 55-59 65-69 75+ 16-19 25-29 35-39 45-49 55-59 65-69 75+ Male Female 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 Source: Stamatiadis & Deacon

2 Gender and Age, Age and Year Rel. Acc. Involvement Ratio Rel. Acc. Involvement Ratio Male Female Source: Stamatiadis & Deacon 1995 AAP 27,4 Source: Stamatiadis & Deacon 1995 AAP 27,4 Gender, Age, & Period TIME TRENDS Young (<25) Older (>70) RAIR RAIR RAIR INT NINT DAY NITE RAIR INT NINT DAY NITE Age Age Male Female Male Female Source: Villalba, Kirk, & Stamatiadis 2001 Proc. ATT Source: Villalba, Kirk, & Stamatiadis 2001 Proc. ATT 2

3 Crash Characteristics Female drivers are safer than male drivers Older males are safer than females Current young cohorts are less safe than past Older drivers cause more crashes involving a TURNING maneuver but fewer REAR END Older drivers have higher crash rates in URBAN areas and at INTERSECTIONS Younger drivers have a higher crash involvement at NIGHT and in RURAL areas DRIVER AGE EFFECT RAIR Source: Stamatiadis & Deacon 1995 AAP 27,4 WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS? More older drivers More stuff within vehicles that will demand more drivers attention Higher volumes and more congestion More demanding roadway environment THEN, THE QUESTION IS: CAN WE PERFORM THE DRIVING TASK SAFELY? WHAT ABOUT THE OLDER DRIVER? 3

PART IV: PERCEPTION & REALITY Objectives Identify

types Examine how elderly view these driving

rates of older drivers (Part B) Some Statistics 65+

1980-2010 period 65+ All 15.5 mil to 34.

increase Females 166% Males 90% In Kentucky, 65+

4 PART IV: PERCEPTION & REALITY Objectives Identify driving maneuvers that result in specific crash types Examine how elderly view these driving maneuvers (Part A) Examine effect of age on crash rates of older drivers (Part B) Some Statistics % of US population 17% of US driving population period 65+ All 15.5 mil to 34.6 mil; 123% increase 145 mil to 210 mil; 45% increase Females 166% Males 90% In Kentucky, 65+ about 24% of drivers Roadway Problem Areas Five situations that need further attention (FHWA) 4

5 Methodology PART A DRIVER SURVEY Driver s Survey Background Information Medical History Merging Situations Lane Changes Nighttime Driving Left Turning Maneuvers Methodology (cont d) Survey Sample Examine deviation from mean values Single variable t-test Recoded to represent appropriate answer Rank situations 82 completed surveys 5

6 Survey Sample Results Background Information Average age group of respondents: Driving frequency 89% drive daily 11% drive weekly Citations 74% speeding 6% parking violations Results Medical Background Muscle pain and tightness Annual and eyesight exams 84% have annual exams Few asked about driving 69% annual eye exams Results Merging Situations Right of way issues Avoid driving on controlled access roadways, especially at night Presence of other vehicles increase difficulty level Tendency to merge late Limited use of rear view and side view mirrors while merging 6

7 Results Lane Changes Significant amount of incorrect answers Others are driving too fast or recklessly Difficulty level increases when other vehicles are present Limited mirror usage Results Night Driving Significant portion do not drive at night anymore on a regular basis Feel increased apprehension or nervousness while driving at night More difficult time turning left at intersection at night Results Left Turn Maneuvers Difficulty in judging gap and speed of opposing vehicle Difficulty level increases with other vehicles present Alter trip to avoid turning left at unsignalized intersection Close call accidents while attempting to turn left Conclusions Merging situations: least difficult situation Lane changing situations: multiple vehicle apprehension Nighttime driving: increased apprehension and nervousness Left turning maneuvers: conflicting data 7

8 Possible Solutions More street lighting on roadways and highway ramps Better reflective lane markings on all roads Longer merging lanes More protected left turn movements at busy intersections PART B CRASH ANALYSIS Methodology Database Use Crash Database from the Commonwealth of Kentucky Select crashes and classify drivers as at fault and not-at fault Combine crash and traffic maneuver data Disaggregate crashes with respect to significant causal factors Develop relationships using logistic regression and the quasi-induced exposure Kentucky Crash Database Driver Gender Crash Type Traffic Maneuver Crash Time Area of crash Severity of crash Presence of passengers 8

9 Left Turn Crashes Gap Acceptance Related Crashes Lane Change Related Crashes Age Effect and Crash Type Left Turn Gap Acceptance Lane Change Crash Type <

Gender Effect and Crash Type (65+) Passenger Effect and Crash Type (65+) 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.

2 Left Turn Gap Acceptance Crash Type W/Pax No Pax Lane Change Conclusions Higher crash involvement for older drivers Gender effect in left turns and gap acceptance

10 Gender Effect and Crash Type (65+) Passenger Effect and Crash Type (65+) Left Turn Gap Acceptance Lane Change Crash Type Male Female Left Turn Gap Acceptance Crash Type W/Pax No Pax Lane Change Conclusions Higher crash involvement for older drivers Gender effect in left turns and gap acceptance related crashes Passengers influence crash involvement Higher probability for involvement in fatal left-turn and crossing highway crashes Increased involvement in nighttime leftturn crashes Overall Conclusions Perception and reality similar Increase level of awareness Left-turn problems Nighttime driving still an issue 10

11 Question of the day? What can we do to improve age/gender issues? 11

Geometric Categories as Intersection Safety Evaluation Tools

Geometric Categories as Intersection Safety Evaluation Tools John R. Campbell Ayres Associates N19 W24075 Riverwood Drive, Suite 300 Waukesha, WI 53188 campbellj@ayresassociates.com Keith K. Knapp Engineering