ATTACHMENT A [<*) ST BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF LIGHTING BAY OVAL. MAY 201. i RESH INFO CO

Transcription

1 62 ATTACHMENT A [<*) ST BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF LIGHTING BAY OVAL. MAY 201 i RESH INFO CO

2 F: 63 CONTENTS Executive summary. Introduction Background. Objective 4 Analysis 5 Evaluation method 5 Relevant costs and benefits 6 Key assumptions 7 Results 8 Appendix 10

3 FI C4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Bay Oval, situated on Blake Park, Mount Maunganui, is the premier cricket ground of the Bay of Plenty Region. Councillors have been asked by Bay Oval Trust to consider supporting the completion of Bay Oval. This includes providing state of the art lighting to enable cricket matches to be played at times which align with optimum television scheduling. The objective of this study is to assess the costs and benefits to Tauranga of installing lights at Bay Oval. The proposal has been evaluated using social cost-benefit analysis (CBA) because this method is able to take into account non-financial costs and benefits that are highly relevant to this project. All costs and benefits have been assessed over a 25 year period and converted into present value terms (2016 dollars) using Treasury's recommended discount rate of 8%. This discount rate is higher than Tauranga City Council's current cost of capital of around 5% but is still appropriate in our opinion given the time frames and uncertainties involved. Using a lower discount rate would improve the business case for installing lights at Bay Oval. NZC is unable to confirm how many additional matches would be allocated to Bay Oval if it had lights but they have stated a clear preference for lit stadiums and have contractual obligations to play certain fixtures under lights e.g. all matches against India, Australia and England. Having a stadium with lights would therefore give Tauranga the opportunity to bid for a greater number of matches and also a more compelling range of matches from a spectator perspective. Having lights will also increase Tauranga's chances of securing the matches they bid for. Conversely, not having lights is likely to reduce Tauranga's chances of securing matches in the future because competition for international matches will increase as other grounds upgrade their facilities. Sensitivity analysis has been conducted on the average number of additional international matches secured each year to understand the range of potential outcomes for Tauranga. The range considered was 1 additional match each year (low scenario) to 2 additional international matches each year (high scenario) with a medium case of 1.5 additional matches each year. The results indicate that Tauranga would need to secure at least 1.2 additional international matches each year to justify the cost of lighting Bay Oval. While NZC is unable to confirm how many additional international matches it would allocate to Tauranga if it had a stadium with lights we believe that an average of 1.5 additional matches per year could be secured with the full support of Tauranga City Council. This level of additional demand would deliver a net benefit of around $0.72 million in 2016 dollar terms, making the lighting of Bay Oval economically viable. The associated benefit-cost ratio is 1.18 which means that the project would deliver $1.18 of value to society for every dollar invested. The allocation of international cricket matches will ultimately be determined through a competitive bidding process run by NZC that will take a range of factors into account including: Available facilities (including lights) Event experience Fan and community engagement Financial viability Game development This evaluation identifies how many additional international matches Tauranga would need to secure to justify the expense of installing lights at Bay Oval, but the actual outcome will depend mainly on Tauranga's appetite/ability to secure additional matches.

4 65 FIGURE 1 SUMMARY OF NET BENEFITS ($M, 2016 DOLLARS) is $1.5 E SlO $0.5 $0, Additional international matches per year TABLE 1 COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF LIGHTING BAY OVAL ($M, 2016 DOLLARS) Measure Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Additional matches per year Discount rate 7% 7% 7% Costs {$m) Capital expenses (incl. finance) $2.68 $2.68 $2.68 Operating expenses $0.93 $0.94 $0.95 Event attraction expenses $0.23 $0.35 $0.47 Unintended consequences $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Net present value of costs $3.84 $3.96 $4.09 Benefits ($m) NZC spend in Tauranga $0.51 $0.77 $1.03 Visitor expenditure $0.55 $0.83 $1.10 Consumer surplus (residents only) $0.88 $1.33 $1.77 Local use benefits $0.56 $0.56 $0.56 Media & brand benefits $0.47 $0.70 $0.93 Option and existence values $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 Net present value of benefits $3.48 $4.68 $5.89 Net benefit (NPV, $m) -$0.36 $0.72 $1.80 Benefit-cost ratio

5 INTRODUCTION Background Bay Oval, situated on Blake Park, Mount Maunganui, is the premier cricket ground of the Bay of Plenty Region. Set against the backdrop of Mount Mauao, Bay Oval is an internationally sized, purpose built ground. It has 70 metre boundaries and is surrounded by grass embankments with available seating capacity for up to 10,000 people. The 18-strip grass practice facility is able to be used throughout the year due to the region's climate and free draining surrounds. Bay Oval is now complimented by the Carrus Pavilion which features international standard changing and player viewing facilities. In 2014 further development saw the construction of a media tower/sight screen providing state ofthe art facilities for television and radio broadcasts. In October 2014 Bay Oval successfully hosted two ODIs between the Black Caps and South Africa. These matches were followed by three women's internationals between the White Ferns and England in February of 2015 and two matches between the Black Caps and Sri Lanka in January 2016 (one ODl and one T20). Bay Oval is now recognised as a genuine boutique international cricket ground. Usage of Bay Oval spans international, national and local teams. National usage includes the Black Caps, Northern Knights, Otago, Wellington and Auckland - all having spent extended periods of time at the ground during pre-season training. Locally, Bay of Plenty senior and age group teams all play and practice at Bay Oval. Bay Oval is also used for junior cricket, junior soccer and rugby. Bay Oval Trust (BOT) is a Charitable Trust constituted in 2009 by the Bay of Plenty Cricket Association. The purpose of BOT is to enable and encourage the community to play cricket or other games and sports thereby assisting in the physical health and wellbeing ofthe Bay of Plenty community. BOT's contribution to Bay Oval has been significant both in terms of capital and maintenance funding. The training facilities (required for hosting first class and international cricket) were funded by BOT as well as building depreciation and maintenance on the pavilion. In 2014 BOT raised over $650,000 towards improvements to Bay Oval. This included a new scoreboard, a media, TV and sightscreen structure and terraces in front ofthe Pavilion. Councillors have been asked by BOT to consider supporting the completion of Bay Oval. This includes providing state ofthe art lighting to enable cricket matches to be played at times which align with optimum television scheduling. Council considered the issue in the Long Term Plan and resolved to "work with BOT to develop a business case for stadium lights at Blake Park". Since the LTP, Bay Oval has worked with New Zealand Cricket (NZC) and the Civic Amenities Group (CAG) to secure support for the completion of Bay Oval. Both groups have indicated that they are supportive of lighting Bay Oval. NZC have acknowledged the need for another lit cricket oval and have indicated that with lights Bay Oval will be capable of hosting all game formats (Test, One Day and T20) against all countries including tier one nations such as Australia, England and India. Lighting Bay Oval will significantly expand opportunities to host international/televised matches. NZC has indicated that it would allocate additional international fixtures to Bay Oval over multiple years if it had adequate lights. NZC's broadcast agreements now state that most matches must be played as day/night games to maximise viewership and value to sponsors. Nationally this has the advantage of shifting matches into primetime viewing (for the same reason Super Rugby is now played exclusively at night). It also enables

6 ry: matches that are televised worldwide to be shown at more convenient times around the world. Currently a day game in NZ is the worst possible time to show a match almost anywhere in the world. NZC has also indicated that Bay Oval would be a preferred venue for televising domestic rounds and finals. Support from NZC is due to the natural advantages of Bay Oval over other venues, including permanent TV infrastructure, a fast draining outfield and favourable weather. Outside ofthe major multisport stadiums Bay Oval would be one of only two cricket grounds, alongside Hamilton's Seddon Park, with lights. Bay Oval has several advantages over Seddon Park including ground size, climate, low dew factor, drainage, early season opportunities and a large holiday market. Due to improved technology in recent years the proposed standard of lights will ensure the best lighting level in the country. Currently only three venues have lighting systems that are adequate for hosting a day night test match. BOT currently has resource consent for lights however a variation will be required to allow for greater height and lux levels. Objective The objective of this study is to assess the costs and benefits to Tauranga of installing lights at Bay Oval. The one-off capital cost of installing lights is currently estimated at $2,745,000 and the ongoing cost of maintaining the lights is estimated at $44,000 per annum.

7 r: f^8 ANALYSIS Evaluation method We have evaluated the proposed project using cost-benefit analysis (CBA). CBA has been selected because it is able to take into account non-financial costs and benefits that are highly relevant to this project. CBA is based on the premise that the best decision in any circumstance is the one that most improves the wellbeing of the community as a whole. CBA requires the identification and measurement of the main factors that affect the wellbeing of people in the study area, including financial costs and benefits and other effects that are likely to have an impact on wellbeing. The perspective taken is that of the community as a whole - in this case the entire population of Tauranga. CBA is the primary tool used by central government agencies to make important decisions. The Treasury has produced a document called Guide to Social Cost Benefit Analysis^ which provides an overview of CBA and its application to publicly-funded projects. The introduction to this document states that: Significant decisions should be accompanied by some kind of CBA A rough CBA is better than no CBA A CBA is primarily about organising available information in a logical and methodological way A CBA measures the impact of a decision on the public at large. It should attempt to be value-free. Different methods should be used to measure the extent to which a proposal fits with decision-makers' objectives and policies. Economic impact analysis (EIA) was also considered as an evaluation tool but CBA was ultimately chosen because: EIA is an accounting methodology that can only attribute value to financial costs and benefits. This introduces the risk of important non-financial costs and benefits being excluded from the evaluation. CBA is able to consider all relevant costs and benefits and is therefore able to provide a more balanced view ofthe project EIA does not consider the opportunity cost of using resources in a particular way. This typically results in the benefits of a project being overstated and the costs being understated. Opportunity cost is a key element of CBA and must therefore be factored into any evaluation. The measurement of non-financial costs and benefits in a CBA is difficult and often contentious, but we believe that it is better to have a comprehensive analysis that acknowledges and attributes value to all material costs and benefits rather than a partial analysis like EIA which effectively ignores important non-financial effects. ^

8 F: ^9 Relevant costs and benefits The relevant costs for this project relate to the capital cost of lighting Bay Oval ($2,745,000) as well as additional operating costs, event attraction expenses, and unintended consequences imposed on Tauranga as a result of lighting Bay Oval. Unintended consequences could include things like light pollution, noise pollution, and traffic congestion caused by hosting additional international matches in Tauranga at night. We have reviewed the consenting documentation for the lights and have formed the view that any unintended consequences would be minimal. We have therefore focussed primarily on capital and operating expenses in this evaluation. The main benefit of having lights is the expected increase in the number and quality of international matches hosted at Bay Oval. NZC recently requested bids from host regions for home games during the period which includes 49 fixtures against six top tier nations (around 25 games per season). It is unlikely that the lights at Bay Oval would be completed in time to influence the allocation of any of these matches but future periods will present similar opportunities for regions with the right facilities to host high profile matches. NZC is unable to confirm how many additional matches would be allocated to Bay Oval if it had lights but they have stated a clear preference for lit stadiums and have contractual obligations to play certain fixtures under lights e.g. all matches against India, Australia and England. Having a stadium with lights would therefore give Tauranga the opportunity to bid for a greater number of matches and also a more compelling range of matches from a spectator perspective. Having lights will also increase Tauranga's chances of securing the matches they bid for. Conversely, not having lights is likely to reduce Tauranga's chances of securing matches in the future because competition for international matches will increase as other grounds upgrade their facilities. The main benefits associated with attracting additional international matches to Tauranga are summarised in the table below. Benefit NZC spend in Tauranga Visitor expenditure Consumer surplus Local use benefits Media and brand benefits Option and existence values Description The additional spend in Tauranga by NZC to support the additional matches. This includes rental fees paid to Bay Oval as well as ancillary expenses such as accommodating players/staff, local transport, player per diems (which are largely spent in the host city), match day entertainment, marketing expenses, broadcast-related expenses etc. The expenditure in Tauranga by day and overnight visitors attracted to the city by the additional international matches. The increase in resident wellbeing caused by the additional matches. Consumer surplus is calculated by measuring the difference between what consumers are willing to pay for a good or service relative to its market price. A consumer surplus (benefit) exists when a person derives more enjoyment from something than they pay for. The benefits of having a lit venue for local teams to play and train on. The benefits to Tauranga ofthe domestic and international media exposure caused by the additional matches. The value to Tauranga residents of having a lit stadium and being able to attend night matches, even if they never exercise that option. All costs and benefits have been assessed over a 25 year period and converted into present value terms (2016 dollars) using Treasury's recommended discount rate of 7%. This discount rate is higher than Tauranga City Council's current cost of capital of around 5% but is still appropriate in our opinion given the time frames and uncertainties involved.

9 70 Key assumptions The key assumptions that inform the CBA are summarised in the tables below. Global assumptions Measure Discount rate Period of analysis Match attendance Description 7% as per Treasury guidelines 25 years (standard for infrastructure projects) 8,000 spectators per additional international match (~85% occupancy) Cost assumptions Benefit Description Capital cost of lights $2,745,000 TCC contribution to capex $915,000 (33.3%) TECT/CAG contribution to capex $1,830,000 (66.7%) TCC finance cost for capex 6% Term of TCC P&l loan for capex 20 years Annual maintenance contract $44,000 Annual electricity cost ~$36,000 across local, domestic and international use Event attraction cost (per event) $20,000 Benefit assumptions Benefit NZC spend in Tauranga Visitor expenditure Consumer surplus Local use benefits Media and brand benefits Option and existence values Description Total of $140,000 per match including rental fees paid to Bay Oval, accommodation for players/staff, local transport, player per diems (which are largely spent in the host city), match day entertainment, marketing expenses, broadcast-related expenses etc. 20% of attendees are day visitors from surrounding regions 15% of attendees are overnight visitors to Tauranga 50% of overnight visitation is caused by the match (the other 50% of overnight visitors would have travelled to Tauranga anyway) Spend in Tauranga per day visitor of $50 excl. GST Spend in Tauranga per overnight visitor of $263 excl. GST (based on 1.5 nights per visitor and $175 excl. GST per visitor night) Profit margin of 20% on additional visitor expenditure Average ticket price of $25 incl. GST Average of 6 hours spent at each match (including travel to/from) Average value of time of $8 as per NZTA guidelines Consumer surplus equivalent to 20% of cost of attendance as per MBIE guidelines Equivalent to 150% of associated electricity cost Equivalent to $40,000 per match (based on commercial sponsorship rates for comparable level of exposure) Equivalent to $0.75 per household per year i.e. on average each household would be willing to pay $0.75 per year to have the option of attending night matches at Bay Oval.

10 F: 71 RESULTS Sensitivity analysis has been conducted on the average number of additional international matches secured each year to understand the range of potential outcomes for Tauranga. The range considered was 1 additional match each year (low scenario) to 2 additional international matches each year (high scenario) with a medium case of 1.5 additional matches each year. The results presented below are based on Treasury's recommended discount rate of 7%. Alternative estimates based on discount rates of 6% and 8% are presented in the appendix. The results indicate that Tauranga would need to secure at least 1.2 additional international matches each year to justify the cost of lighting Bay Oval. While NZC is unable to confirm how many additional international matches it would allocate to Tauranga if it had a stadium with lights we believe that an average of 1.5 additional matches per year could be secured with the full support of Tauranga City Council. This level of additional demand would deliver a net benefit of around $0.72 million in 2016 dollar terms, making the lighting of Bay Oval economically viable. The associated benefit-cost ratio is 1.18 which means that the project would deliver $1.18 of value to society for every dollar invested. FIGURE 2 SUMMARY OF NET BENEFITS ($M, 2016 DOLLARS) $2.0 S $1.5 E $1-0 o $ Additional international matciies per year The allocation of cricket matches will ultimately be determined through a competitive bidding process run by NZC that will take a range of factors into account including: Available facilities (including lights) Event experience Fan and community engagement Financial viability Game development This evaluation identifies how many additional international matches Tauranga would need to secure to justify the expense of installing lights at Bay Oval, but the actual outcome will depend mainly on Tauranga's appetite/ability to secure additional matches.

11 TABLE 2 COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF LIGHTING BAY OVAL ($M, 2016 DOLLARS) Measure Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Additional matches per year Discount rate 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% % % Costs (NPV, $m) Capital expenses (including finance) $2.68 $2.68 $2.68 $2.68 $2.68 $2.68 $2.68 $2.68 $2.68 $2.68 $2.68 Operating expenses $0.93 $0.93 $0.93 $0.94 $0.94 $0.94 $0.94 $0.94 $0.94 $0.94 $0.95 Event attraction expenses $0.23 $0.26 $0.28 $0.30 $0.33 $0.35 $0.37 $0.40 $0.42 $0.44 $0.47 Unintended consequences $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Net present value of costs $3.84 $3.86 $3.89 $3.91 $3.94 $3.96 $3.99 $4.01 $4.04 $4.06 $4.09 Benefits {$NPV, $m) NZC spend in Tauranga $0.51 $0.56 $0.62 $0.67 $0.72 $0.77 $0.82 $0.87 $0.92 $0.97 $1.03 Visitor expenditure $0.55 $0.61 $0.66 $0.72 $0.77 $0.83 $0.88 $0.94 $0.99 $1.05 $1.10 Consumer surplus (residents only) $0.88 $0.97 $1.06 $1.15 $1.24 $1.33 $1.42 $1.50 $1.59 $1.68 $1.77 Local use benefits $0.56 $0.56 $0.56 $0.56 $0.56 $0.56 $0.56 $0.56 $0.56 $0.56 $0.56 Media & brand benefits $0.47 $0.51 $0.56 $0.61 $0.65 $0.70 $0.75 $0.79 $0.84 $0.89 $0.93 Option and existence values $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 Net present value of benefits $3.48 $3.72 $3.96 $4.20 $4.44 $4.68 $4.93 $5.17 $5.41 $5.65 $5.89 Net benefit (NPV, $m) -$0.36 -$0.15 $0.07 $0.29 $0.50 $0.72 $0.94 $1.15 $1.37 $1.59 $1.80 Benefit-cost ratio

12 F: APPENDIX TABLE 3 COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF LIGHTING BAY OVAL USING A 6% DISCOUNT RATE ($M, 2016 DOLLARS) Measure Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Additional matches per year Discount rate % % % % % % % % % % % Costs (NPV, $m) Capital expenses (including finance) $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 Operating expenses $1.02 $1.02 $1.03 $1.03 $1.03 $1.03 $1.03 $1.03 $1.03 $1.04 $1.04 Event attraction expenses $0.26 $0.28 $0.31 $0.33 $0.36 $0.38 $0.41 $0.43 $0.46 $0.49 $0.51 Unintended consequences $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Net present value of costs $4.02 $4.05 $4.08 $4.10 $4.13 $4.16 $4.19 $4.21 $4.24 $4.27 $4.29 Benefits ($NPV, $m) NZC spend in Tauranga $0.56 $0.62 $0.67 $0.73 $0.79 $0.84 $0.90 $0.96 $1.01 Visitor expenditure $0.60 $0.67 $0.73 $0.79 $0.85 $0.91 $0.97 $1.03 $1.09 Consumer surplus (residents only) $0.97 $1.07 $1.16 $1.26 $1.36 $1.46 $1.55 $1.65 $1.75 Local use benefits $0.62 $0.62 $0.62 $0.62 $0.62 $0.62 $0.62 $0.62 $0.62 Media & brand benefits $0.51 $0.56 $0.61 $0.66 $0.72 $0.77 $0.82 $0.87 $0.92 Option and existence values $0.55 $0.55 $0.55 $0.55 $0.55 $0.55 $0.55 $0.55 $0.55 Net present value of benefits $3.82 $4.08 $4.35 $4.61 $4.88 $5.14 $5.41 $5.67 $5.94 $1.07 $1.15 $1.84 $0.62 $0.97 $0.55 $6.20 $1.12 $1.21 $1.94 $0.62 $1.02 $0.55 $6.47 Net benefit (NPV, $m) -$0.21 $0.03 $0.27 $0.51 Benefit-cost ratio $0.75 $0.98 $1.22 $1.46 $ $ $

13 TABLE 4 COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF LIGHTING BAY OVAL USING AN 8% DISCOUNT RATE ($M, 2016 DOLLARS) Measure Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Additional matches per year Discount rate 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% Costs (NPV, $m) Capital expenses (including finance) $2.61 $2.61 $2.61 $2.61 $2.61 $2.61 $2.61 $2.61 $2.61 $2.61 $2.61 Operating expenses $0.85 $0.85 $0.86 $0.86 $0.86 $0.86 $0.86 $0.86 $0.86 $0.87 $0.87 Event attraction expenses $0.21 $0.23 $0.26 $0.28 $0.30 $0.32 $0.34 $0.36 $0.38 $0.41 $0.43 Unintended consequences $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Net present value of costs $3.68 $3.70 $3.73 $3.75 $3.77 $3.79 $3.82 $3.84 $3.86 $3.88 $3.91 Benefits ($NPV, $m) NZC spend in Tauranga $0.47 $0.52 $0.56 $0.61 $0.66 $0.70 $0.75 $0.80 $0.85 $0.89 $0.94 Visitor expenditure $0.50 $0.56 $0.61 $0.66 $0.71 $0.76 $0.81 $0.86 $0.91 $0.96 $1.01 Consumer surplus (residents only) $0.81 $0.89 $0.97 $1.05 $1.13 $1.22 $1.30 $1.38 $1.46 $1.54 $1.62 Local use benefits $0.52 $0.52 $0.52 $0.52 $0.52 $0.52 $0.52 $0.52 $0.52 $0.52 $0.52 Media & brand benefits $0.43 $0.47 $0.51 $0.56 $0.60 $0.64 $0.68 $0.73 $0.77 $0.81 $0.85 Option and existence values $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 Net present value of benefits $3.18 $3.40 $3.62 $3.85 $4.07 $4.29 $4.51 $4.73 $4.95 $5.17 $5.39 Net benefit (NPV, $m) -$0.50 -$0.30 -$0.10 $0.10 $0.30 $0.49 $0.69 $0.89 $1.09 $1.29 $1.49 Benefit-cost ratio

14 ATTACHMENT B: OF PROPOSED CRICKET MATCHES APR 2016 F:RESH INFO CO

15 76 CONTENTS Executive Summary Introduction Approach Event Footprint Economic footprint Contribution to GDP and return on regional investment. Appendix season 2017/18 season without lights 2017/18 season with lights

16 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Tauranga City Council (TCC) has submitted a bid to New Zealand Cricket (NZC) to host ten international cricket matches over the next two seasons: : Pakistan (test match), Bangladesh (ODl, T20), South Africa (ODl, T20) 2017/18: West Indies (test match, T20), Pakistan (ODl), Australia (ODl), England (ODl) A proposal to light Bay Oval is currently being considered by Council and the outcome of this process will have some influence on the matches awarded to Tauranga. NZC has indicated that lights would be required to host a match against Australia as well as the installation of 500 temporary seats to increase total capacity to 10,000. It is also unlikely that Tauranga would be awarded a match against England without lights. The purpose of this report is to assess the impact of the proposed match schedule on tourism and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Tauranga area which is defined as the Tauranga City Territorial Local Authority Area. To manage the uncertainty around lighting at Bay Oval two scenarios have been considered: at Bay Oval. Under this scenario it is assumed that Tauranga will be awarded all of the matches it bids for except the South Africa T20 in 2017 and the matches against Australia and England in Lights at Bay Oval from late 2017 onwards. Under this scenario it is assumed that: - Tauranga will be awarded all ofthe matches it bids for except the South Africa T20 in All ODl and T20 matches in the 2017/18 season will be played as day/night matches. - A day/night match will be more convenient for spectators, resulting in an increase in spectator attendance of around 20% relative to a day match. Key results 39,520 unique attendees across the two seasons without lights and 61,760 if lights were available for the 2017/18 season (counting each person only once, even ifthey attended the same match on more than one day). 9,830 visits caused by events across the two seasons without lights including 6,740 day visits and 3,090 overnight visits. The overnight visits are expected to generate 6,080 visitor nights in Tauranga. 15,920 visits caused by events across the two seasons if lights were available for the 2017/18 season including 11,140 day visits and 4,780 overnight visits. The overnight visits are expected to generate 8,810 visitor nights in Tauranga. Projected increase in regional output of $2.11 million across the two seasons without lights and $2.75 million if lights were available forthe 2017/18 season. Projected increase in regional GDP of $1.37 million across the two seasons without lights and $1.79 million if lights were available for the 2017/18 season.

17 '8 TABLE 1 SUMMARY OF RESULTS Lights in 2017/ /18 Total 2017/18 Total Spectators (gate movements) 24,000 18,000 42,000 24,000 40,000 64,000 Unique attendees 22,820 16,700 39,520 22,820 38,940 61,760 Teams, officials & media (visitors) ,080 Spectators from Tauranga 14,150 10,280 24,430 14,150 24,950 39,100 Spectators from outside Tauranga 8,190 6,060 14,250 8,190 13,390 21,580 Visitors caused by the event 5,830 4,000 9,830 5,830 10,090 15,920 Day visitors 3,970 2,770 6,740 3,970 7,170 11,140 Overnight visitors 1,860 1,230 3,090 1,860 2,920 4,780 Visitor nights caused by the event 3,560 2,520 6,080 3,560 5,250 8,810 Nights per overnight visitor Change in regional output (excl. GST) 1,205, ,813 2,110,896 1,205,083 1,541,800 2,746,883 Event operations 325, , , , , ,283 Visitor expenditure 879, ,900 1,506, ,800 1,345,800 2,225,600 Change in regional GDP 784, ,000 1,372, ,000 1,002,000 1,786,000

18 '^9 INTRODUCTION Tauranga City Council (TCC) has submitted a bid to New Zealand Cricket (NZC) to host ten international cricket matches over the next two seasons. All of the proposed matches would be hosted at Bay Oval which currently has no lights and can therefore only host day matches. This has implications for the number and calibre of matches that can be hosted at Bay Oval because NZC's broadcast agreements stipulate that most matches must be played as day/night games to maximise viewership and value to sponsors. Nationally this has the advantage of shifting matches into primetime viewing (forthe same reason Super Rugby is now played exclusively at night) and it also enables matches that are televised worldwide to be shown at more convenient times. Currently a day game in New Zealand is the worst possible time to show a match almost anywhere in the world. NZC have acknowledged the need for another lit cricket oval and have indicated that with lights Bay Oval will be capable of hosting all game formats (Test, One Day and T20) against all countries including tier one nations such as England, Australia and India. A proposal to light Bay Oval is currently being considered by Council. The outcome of this process will have some influence on the matches awarded to Tauranga over the next two seasons, particularly with respect to the proposed ODIs against Australia and England in NZC has indicated that lights would be required to host a match against Australia as well as the installation of 500 temporary seats to increase total capacity to 10,000. It is also unlikely that Tauranga would be awarded a match against England without lights. TABLE 2 PROPOSED MATCH SCHEDULE FOR & 2017/18 Season Opposition Pakistan Bangladesh Bangladesh South Africa South Africa Month Nov-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Format Test ODl T20 ODl T / / / / /18 West Indies West Indies Pakistan Australia England Nov-16 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Test T20 ODl ODl ODl The purpose of this report is to assess the impact of the proposed match schedule on tourism and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Tauranga area which is defined as the Tauranga City Territorial Local Authority Area. To manage the uncertainty around lighting at Bay Oval two scenarios have been considered: at Bay Oval. Under this scenario it is assumed that Tauranga will be awarded all of the matches it bids for except the South Africa T20 in 2017 and the matches against Australia and England in Lights at Bay Oval from late 2017 onwards. Under this scenario it is assumed that: - Tauranga will be awarded all of the matches it bids for except the South Africa T20 in All ODl and T20 matches in the 2017/18 season will be played as day/night matches. - A day/night match will be more convenient for spectators, resulting in an increase in spectator attendance of around 20% relative to a day match.

19 80 Approach The outcomes presented in this report have been produced using an accounting methodology that aligns with Statistics New Zealand's System of National Accounts. In practice the evaluation process involves: 1. Determining how the events would move money into and out of the Tauranga economy. This requires a detailed analysis of the various cashflows caused by the events including where they originate, where they are spent and where they would have been spent in the absence of the event. 2. Measuring the overall impact of these cashflows on the value of goods & services purchased from Tauranga businesses (change in regional output). 3. Translating the change in regional output into an estimate of value added (regional GDP) using an economic multiplier of 0.65 which takes into account the direct and flow-on effects of the initial change in output. 4. Calculating the return on regional investment as the change in regional GDP attributable to the event divided by the region's overall investment in the event. All impacts are measured against the counterfactual ofthe events not occurring in Tauranga and the public sector investment in the event not being used for another purpose. The outcomes therefore represent the gross returns to Tauranga and do not consider the returns that could be generated from investing the same amount of money in different ways. The outcomes in this report should be compared with those delivered by other investment options to ensure that resources are being allocated in the most efficient manner. The results presented herein are based on assumptions about the following elements ofthe event: Event attendance, with a particular emphasis on identifying the number of unique people attending the event (rather than measuring cumulative attendance, gate movements or foot fall estimates, all of which can result in the same person being counted more than once). The cash flows caused by the operation of NZC's event budget. The event budget aggregates money from a variety of sources through the income side, and then redistributes it through the expenditure side. A key component ofthe evaluation process is determining how the budget for each event would move money into, out of and within the Tauranga economy. The visitation and resulting tourism expenditure likely to be caused by each event. The following sources of information were used to inform the analysis: Event budget information provided by NZC. This was used to evaluate the net impact on Tauranga of income and expenditure cashflows caused by hosting international cricket events in Tauranga. Ticketing and attendance reports provided by NZC. The results of previous event research to help inform assumptions around length of stay and expenditure in Tauranga by visitors.

20 F: 81 EVENT FOOTPRINT A match-level analysis (see appendix) suggests that there would be 38,680 unique spectator attendances across the two seasons without lights and 60,680 if lights were available forthe 2017/18 season (counting each person only once, even if they attended the same match on more than one day). The difference in spectator outcomes is driven by: More matches being awarded to Tauranga in 2017/18 if it has lights (Australia and England). Higher attendances at day/night matches compared with day matches. Under the no lights scenario it is estimated that there would be 24,430 attendances by Tauranga residents and 14,250 by visitors to Tauranga. If lights were available for the 2017/18 season these numbers would increase to 39,100 and 21,580 respectively. TABLE 3 SPECTATOR PROFILE Lights in 2017/ /18 Total 2017/18 Total Gross attendance (gate movements) 24,000 18,000 42,000 24,000 40,000 64,000 Gate movements per spectator Unique spectators 22,340 16,340 38,680 22,340 38,340 60,680 From Tauranga 14,150 10,280 24,430 14,150 24,950 39,100 From outside Tauranga 8,190 6,060 14,250 8,190 13,390 21,580 Including visiting teams, officials and media increases the unique attendee count for the no lights scenario to 39,520. This includes 24,430 Tauranga residents, 6,740 day visitors and 8,350 overnight visitors. Not all of the overnight visitors would be attracted to Tauranga by the events - some would visit Tauranga anyway, especially during the summer holiday period. If lights were available for the 2017/18 season the projected unique attendee count is 61,760 including 39,100 Tauranga residents, 11,140 day visitors and 11,520 overnight visitors. TABLE 4 UNIQUE ATTENDEES Lights in 2017/ /18 Total 2017/18 Total Teams, officials & media (visitors) ,080 Spectators from Tauranga 14,150 10,280 24,430 14,150 24,950 39,100 Spectators from outside Tauranga 8,190 6,060 14,250 8,190 13,390 21,580 Total 22,820 16,700 39,520 22,820 38,940 61,760 Locals attending the event 14,150 10,280 24,430 14,150 24,950 39,100 Visitors attending the event 8,670 6,420 15,090 8,670 13,990 22,660 Day visitors 3,970 2,770 6,740 3,970 7,170 11,140 Overnight visitors 4,700 3,650 8,350 4,700 6,820 11,520

21 82 Economic footprint Without lights it is estimated that hosting the proposed matches would increase regional output by $2.11 million across the two seasons, made up of: A net inflow of $604,400 through the organisation and delivery of the event i.e. the amount of event income sourced from within Tauranga would be $604,400 less than the amount of money spent by NZC in Tauranga to deliver the event. A net inflow of $1.51 million through expenditure by visitors to Tauranga. With lights available for the 2017/18 season it is estimated that hosting the proposed matches would increase regional output by $2.75 million across the two seasons, made up of: A net inflow of $521,500 through the organisation and delivery of the event i.e. the amount of event income sourced from within Tauranga would be $521,500 less than the amount of money spent by NZC in Tauranga to deliver the event. A net inflow of $2.23 million through expenditure by visitors to Tauranga. More detailed breakdowns of these cashflows are provided in the following sections. TABLE 5 CHANGE IN REGIONAL OUTPUT CAUSED BY THE EVENTS ($NZ EXCL. GST) Lights in 2017/ /18 Total 2017/18 Total Event operations 325, , , , , ,500 Tourism 879, ,900 1,506, ,800 1,345,800 2,225,600 Total 1,205, ,900 2,111,100 1,205,200 1,541,900 2,747,100 Event operations It is estimated that without lights NZC would spend $1.35 million in Tauranga across the two seasons delivering the proposed match programme. Only $743,600 of this would be sourced locally with the remaining $604,400 coming from outside the Tauranga economy. If lights were available for the 2017/18 season it is estimated that NZC would spend $1.62 million in Tauranga across the two seasons. Only $1.10 million of this would be sourced locally with the remaining $521,500 coming from outside the Tauranga economy. TABLE 6 CASHFLOWS GENERATED BY EVENT OPERATIONS ($NZ EXCL GST) Lights in 2017/ /18 Total 2017/18 Total Sourced within Tauranga 422, , , , ,900 1,097,500 Spent within Tauranga 748, ,000 1,348, , ,000 1,619,000 Change in output 325, , , , , ,500

22 ^^3 Tourism Under the no lights scenario it is estimated that 9,830 visitors would be attracted to Tauranga by the cricket including 6,740 day visitors from surrounding regions and 3,090 overnight visitors. It is assumed that the remaining overnight visitors attending matches would have been in Tauranga at that time anyway e.g. on holiday or visiting friends & relatives. Overnight visitors attracted to Tauranga by the cricket are expected to generate 6,080 visitor nights at an average of 1.97 nights per visitor. Projected spend by visitors to Tauranga is $1.51 million excluding GST across the two seasons which equates to $151 per visitor and $248 per visitor night. If lights were available for the 2017/18 season it is estimated that 15,920 visitors would be attracted to Tauranga by the cricket including 11,140 day visitors from surrounding regions and 4,780 overnight visitors. Overnight visitors attracted to Tauranga by the cricket are expected to generate 8,810 visitor nights at an average of 1.84 nights per visitor. Projected spend by visitors to Tauranga is $2.23 million excluding GST across the two seasons which equates to $140 per visitor and $253 per visitor night. TABLE 7 TOURISM ACTIVITY AND EXPENDITURE CAUSED BY THE EVENTS Lights in 2017/ /18 Total 2017/18 Total Visitors attending the event 8,670 6,420 15,090 8,670 13,990 22,660 Day visitors 3,970 2,770 6,740 3,970 7,170 11,140 Overnight visitors 4,460 3,470 7,930 4,460 6,520 10,980 Visitors caused by the event 5,830 4,000 9,830 5,830 10,090 15,920 Day visitors 3,970 2,770 6,740 3,970 7,170 11,140 Overnight visitors 1,860 1,230 3,090 1,860 2,920 4,780 Visitor nights caused by the event 3,560 2,520 6,080 3,560 5,250 8,810 Nights per visitor Visitor spend (excl. GST) 879, ,900 1,506, ,800 1,345,800 2,225,600 Spend per visitor (excl. GST) Spend per visitor night (excl. GST) Contribution to GDP and retum on regional investment Under the no lights scenario the increase in regional output of $2.11 million would increase regional GDP by $1.37 million across the two seasons. If lights were available for the 2017/18 season the change in regional GDP would increase to $1.79 million. TABLE 8 CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL GDP AND RETURN ON REGIONAL INVESTMENT Lights in 2017/ /18 Total 2017/18 Total Change in regional output (excl. GST) 1,205, ,900 2,111,100 1,205,200 1,541,900 2,747,100 Event operations 325, , , , , ,500 Visitor expenditure 879, ,900 1,506, ,800 1,345,800 2,225,600 Output:regional GDP multiplier Change in regional GDP 784, ,000 1,372, ,000 1,002,000 1,786,000

23 P.4 APPENDIX season TABLE 9 SUMMARY OF RESULTS Scenario: Season: Month: Nov-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Opposition: PAK BAN BAN SAF Format: Test ODl T20 ODl Spectators (gate movements) 5,000 6,000 6,000 7,000 Unique attendees 3,460 6,120 6,120 7,120 Teams, officials & media (visitors) Spectators from Tauranga 3,000 3,300 3,300 4,550 Spectators from outside Tauranga 340 2,700 2,700 2,450 Visitors caused by the event 380 1,700 1,700 2,050 Day visitors 170 1,200 1,200 1,400 Overnight visitors Visitor nights caused by the event ,080 Nights per overnight visitor Change in regional output (excl. GST) 326, , , ,500 Event operations 156,200 68,800 68,800 31,600 Visitor expenditure 170, , , ,900 Change in regional GDP 212, , , ,000 Mar-17 SAF T ,000 22, ,150 8,190 5,830 3,970 1,860 3, ,205, , , ,000 TABLE 10 SPECTATOR PROFILE Scenario: Season: Month: Opposition: Nov-16 PAK Jan-17 BAN Jan-17 BAN Mar-17 SAF Mar-17 SAF Format: Test ODl T20 ODl T20 Gross attendance (gate movements) 5,000 6,000 6,000 7,000 24,000 Gate movements per spectator Unique spectators 3,340 6,000 6,000 7,000 22,340 From Tauranga 3,000 3,300 3,300 4,550 14,150 From outside Tauranga 340 2,700 2,700 2,450 8,190

24 ^5 TABLE 11 UNIQUE ATTENDEES Scenario: Season: Month: Nov-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Opposition: PAK BAN BAN SAF SAF Format: Test ODl T20 ODl T20 Teams, officials & media (visitors) Spectators from Tauranga 3,000 3,300 3,300 4,550 14,150 Spectators from outside Tauranga 340 2,700 2,700 2,450 8,190 Total 3,460 6,120 6,120 7,120 22,820 Locals attending the event 3,000 3,300 3,300 4,550 14,150 Visitors attending the event 460 2,820 2,820 2,570 8,670 Day visitors 170 1,200 1,200 1,400 3,970 Overnight visitors 290 1,620 1,620 1,170 4,700 TABLE 12 CHANGE IN REGIONAL OUTPUT CAUSED BY EVENTS ($NZ EXCL. GST) Scenario: Season: Month: Nov-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Opposition: PAK BAN BAN SAF SAF Format: Test ODl T20 ODl T20 Event operations 156,200 68,800 68,800 31, ,400 Tourism 170, , , , ,800 Total 326, , , ,500 1,205,200 TABLE 13 CASHFLOWS GENERATED BY EVENT OPERATIONS ($NZ EXCL. GST) Scenario: Season: Month: Nov-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Opposition: PAK BAN BAN SAF SAF Format: Test ODl T20 ODl T20 Sourced within Tauranga 147,800 79,200 79, , ,600 Spent within Tauranga 304, , , , ,000 Change in output 156,200 68,800 68,800 31, ,400

25 86 TABLE 14 TOURISM ACTIVITY AND EXPENDITURE CAUSED BY EVENTS Scenario: Season: Month: Nov-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Opposition: PAK BAN BAN SAF SAF Format: Test ODl T20 ODl T20 Visitors attending the event 460 2,820 2,820 2,570 8,670 Day visitors 170 1,200 1,200 1,400 Overnight visitors 230 1,560 1,560 1,110 3,970 4,460 Visitors caused by the event 380 1,700 1,700 2,050 5,830 Day visitors 170 1,200 1,200 1,400 Overnight visitors Visitor nights caused by the event , ,970 1,860 3,560 Nights per visitor Visitor spend (excl. GST) 170, , , , ,800 Spend per visitor (excl. GST) Spend per visitor night (excl. GST) TABLE 15 CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL GDP AND RETURN ON REGIONAL INVESTMENT Scenario: Season: Month: Nov-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Opposition: PAK BAN BAN SAF SAF Format: Test ODl T20 ODl T20 Change in regional output (excl. GST) 326, , , ,500 Event operations Visitor expenditure Output:regional GDP multiplier Change in regional GDP 156, , ,000 68, , ,000 68, , ,000 31, , , ,205, , , ,000 10

26 p /18 season without lights TABLE 16 SUMMARY OF RESULTS Scenario: Season: Month: Nov-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Opposition: PAK BAN BAN SAF Format: Test ODl T20 ODl SAF T20 Spectators (gate movements) 5,000 6,500 6,500 18,000 Unique attendees 3,460 6,620 6,620 Teams, officials & media (visitors) Spectators from Tauranga 3,000 3,640 3,640 Spectators from outside Tauranga 340 2,860 2,860 Visitors caused by the event 380 1,810 1,810 Day visitors 170 1,300 1,300 Overnight visitors Visitor nights caused by the event Nights per overnight visitor , ,280 Change in regional output (excl. GST) 326, , , ,900 Event operations 156,200 61,400 61, ,000 Visitor expenditure 170, , , ,900 Change in regional GDP 212, , , ,000 6,060 4,000 2,770 1,230 2, TABLE 17 SPECTATOR PROFILE Scenario: Season: Month: Nov-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Opposition: PAK BAN BAN SAF SAF Format: Test ODl T20 ODl T20 Gross attendance (gate movements) 5,000 6,500 6,500 18,000 Gate movements per spectator Unique spectators 3,340 6,500 6,500 16,340 From Tauranga 3,000 3,640 3,640 10,280 From outside Tauranga 340 2,860 2,860 6,060 11

27 Pg TABLE 18 UNIQUE ATTENDEES Scenario: Season: Month: Nov-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Opposition: PAK BAN BAN SAF SAF Format: Test ODl T20 ODl T20 Teams, officials & media (visitors) Spectators from Tauranga 3,000 3,640 3,640 10,280 Spectators from outside Tauranga 340 2,860 2,860 6,060 Total 3,460 6,620 6,620 16,700 Locals attending the event 3,000 3,640 3,640 10,280 Visitors attending the event 460 2,980 2,980 6,420 Day visitors 170 1,300 1,300 2,770 Overnight visitors 290 1,680 1,680 3,650 TABLE 19 CHANGE IN REGIONAL OUTPUT CAUSED BY EVENTS ($NZ EXCL. GST) Scenario: Season: Month: Nov-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Opposition: PAK BAN BAN SAF SAF Format: Test ODl T20 ODl T20 Event operations 156,200 61,400 61, ,000 Tourism 170, , , ,900 Total 326, , , ,900 TABLE 20 CASHFLOWS GENERATED BY EVENT OPERATIONS ($NZ EXCL GST) Scenario: Season: Month: Nov-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Opposition: PAK BAN BAN SAF SAF Format: Test ODl T20 ODl T20 Sourced within Tauranga 147,800 86,600 86, ,000 Spent within Tauranga 304, , , ,000 Change in output 156,200 61,400 61, ,000 12

28 P.3 TABLE 21 TOURISM ACTIVITY AND EXPENDITURE CAUSED BY EVENTS Scenario: Season: Month: Nov-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Opposition: PAK BAN BAN SAF SAF Format: Test ODl T20 ODl T20 Visitors attending the event 460 2,980 2,980 6,420 Day visitors 170 1,300 1,300 2,770 Overnight visitors 230 1,620 1,620 3,470 Visitors caused by the event 380 1,810 1,810 4,000 Day visitors 170 1,300 1,300 2,770 Overnight visitors ,230 Visitor nights caused by the event ,520 Nights per visitor Visitor spend (excl. GST) , , , ,900 Spend per visitor (excl. GST) Spend per visitor night (excl. GST) TABLE 22 CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL GDP AND RETURN ON REGIONAL INVESTMENT Scenario: Season: Month: Nov-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Opposition: PAK BAN BAN SAF SAF Format: Test ODl T20 ODl T20 Change in regional output (excl. GST) 326, , , ,900 Event operations 156,200 61,400 61, ,000 Visitor expenditure 170, , , ,900 Output:regional GDP multiplier Change in regional GDP 212, , , ,000 13

29 /18 season with lights TABLE 23 SUMMARY OF RESULTS Scenario: Season: Month: Nov-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Opposition: PAK BAN BAN SAF SAF Format: Test ODl T20 ODl T20 Spectators (gate movements) 5,000 8,000 8,000 10,000 9,000 40,000 Unique attendees 3,460 8,120 8,120 10,120 9,120 38,940 Teams, officials & media (visitors) Spectators from Tauranga 3,000 4,800 4,800 6,500 5,850 24,950 Spectators from outside Tauranga 340 3,200 3,200 3,500 3,150 13,390 Visitors caused by the event 380 2,120 2,120 2,870 2,600 10,090 Day visitors 170 1,600 1,600 2,000 1,800 7,170 Overnight visitors ,920 Visitor nights caused by the event ,410 1,300 5,250 Nights per overnight visitor Change in regional output (excl. GST) 326, , , , ,000 1,541,900 Event operations 156,200 36,200 36,200-23,300-9, ,100 Visitor expenditure 170, , , , ,200 1,345,800 Change in regional GDP 212, , , , ,000 1,002,000 TABLE 24 SPECTATOR PROFILE Scenario; Season: Month: Opposition: Nov-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 PAK BAN BAN SAF SAF Format: Test ODl T20 ODl T20 Gross attendance (gate movements) 5,000 8,000 8,000 10,000 9,000 40,000 Gate movements per spectator Unique spectators 3,340 8,000 8,000 10,000 9,000 38,340 From Tauranga 3,000 4,800 4,800 6,500 5,850 24,950 From outside Tauranga 340 3,200 3,200 3,500 3,150 13,390 14