The Social and Economic Impact of the Removal of the Gold Ray Dam: Establishing 2010 Baseline Data. Southern Oregon University Research Center

Transcription

1 The Social and Economic Impact of the Removal of the Gold Ray Dam: Establishing 2010 Baseline Data Southern Oregon University Research Center Eva Skuratowicz, Ph.D., Jackie Case, Dan Rubenson, Ph.D., Mark Shibley, Ph.D., Cynthia White, Ph.D., Derek Bower, Katelyn Chisholm, Jennifer Haynes-Clark, Benjamin Nagel, Kyle Pate, Rikki Pritzlaff

2 Research Directive: Establish baseline data to assess the social and economic impact of dam removal 1. Recreational use (visitor counts) 2. Recreational experience (visitor surveys) 3. Property values and predicted changes 4. Revenue generated by businesses that utilize the Rogue 5. Working conditions for businesses that utilize the Rogue Interviews with: Fishing Guides Rafting Companies Rental Companies

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4 Methodology How we approached gathering data: Visitor Counts and Surveys Sites Tou velle Picnic area/boat Launch/Beach Fishers Ferry Dodge Bridge Nugget Falls Park Gold Hill Sports Park Population Counts - Hourly Average Unique Hourly Count Unique Count - twice daily Population Count - twice daily Included a count later in research (we discovered a separate park area) Days Saturday Sunday Monday 6/12/2010 6/6/2010 8/9/2010 6/19/2010 7/4/2010 7/3/2010 7/11/2010 7/17/2010 8/22/2010 Comparison Site Shady Cove Unique Hourly Count- Saturday 7/3 & Sunday 7/11 Times Daily from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m.

5 Methodology Sampling Visitor Counts: Population Count vs. Unique/Actual count Tou velle Picnic and Tou velle Beach Total Population count Hourly/daily averages Visitor Surveys: In person Interviews Targeted diversity among respondents Fishing Guides: Phone Interviews We gathered a list of 100 Rogue River fishing guides from: Oregon State Marine Board Rogue River Guides Association Website Asking guides to give us list of contractors they knew 73% Response Rate!!!

6 Methodology How we approached gathering the data: Non-Rafter Surveys Where respondent was from Current recreational activity How long they have been engaging in river activity How much respondent spent on food/gas locally What makes for an enjoyable experience on the river Basic demographic questions Guided Rafter Surveys Where respondent was from Why respondent was in the area How much respondent spent locally What makes for an enjoyable experience on the river Basic demographic questions

7 Methodology How we approached gathering the data: Fishing Guide Interview Phone calls made between 8/30 11/19 Rafting Company Interview Phone calls made between 10/26 - Present Inquiry: What kind of fishing they guide How many paid days on the river for 2009 and 2010 How much they charged per person/boat Ideal river flow How dam removal might affect their business Inquiry: Type of trips they offer How many trips they booked for 2009 and 2010 Labor costs of operation (guides, vans, drivers, etc.) Importance of the Nugget/Powerhouse run How business might change now that the dam has been removed

8 Recreational User Findings Breakdown of most popular activities for each site How far river users travel to get to the Rogue How long people have been using the river for recreation Revenue generated by river users Qualities river users have identified as essential for a positive recreational experience

9 Visitor Counts River Activity (cumulative) Total Visitors River Activity Rafting (commercial) 22% Fishing (all) 22% Picnicking 17% Leisure 15% Other 8% Rafting (recreation) 7% Total Hourly Usage (cumulative) N = 1815 Saturday Sunday Swimming 3% Playing 2% Kayaking 1% Hiking 1% Dog Walking 1% Bird Watching 0% Based on Count Totals from all Saturday and Sundays

10 Visitor Counts Tou velle Picnic Hourly Usage (All Days) Tou velle Picnic Hourly Usage (Saturday vs. Sunday) Base on an hourly total population count Based on an hourly total population count Visitor Count (hourly average) Saturday Average Sunday Average Tou velle Activity Picnicking 77% Leisure 8% Playing 5% Swimming 2% Other 2% Bait & Tackle (boat) 2% Bait & Tackle (bank) 1% Dog Walking 1% Hiking 1% Rafting (commercial) 1% Rafting (recreation) 0% Bird Watching 0% Fly Fishing (bank) 0% Fly Fishing (boat) 0% Kayaking 0%

11 am Visitor Counts Tou velle Beach Hourly Usage (All Days) am pm pm pm pm pm Based on an hourly total population count Daily Average (all days) Tou velle Beach Activity Picnicking 57% Swimming 19% Leisure 14% Playing 8% Dog Walking 1% Other 1% Hiking 0% Bird Watching 0%

12 Visitor Counts Tou velle Boat Ramp Usage (Activity) Total Visitors (all days) Based on an actual hourly count N = 173 Tou velle Boat Ramp (Saturday vs. Sunday) Saturday Sunday

13 Visitor Counts Fishers Ferry Usage (Activity) Total Count (all days) N = 984 Fishers Ferry (Saturday vs Sunday) Top 5 Activities at Fishers Ferry: N = Commercial Guided Rafting 37% 2. Bait & Tackle Fishing 24% 3. Leisure 19% 4. Other 8% 5. Recreational Rafting 5% Visitors Based on an actual count from all days Saturday Sunday

14 Visitor Counts Shady Cove Usage (Activity) Total Visitors Top Activities at Shady Cove: 1. Commercial Rental Rafting 60% 2. Leisure 12% 3. Picnicking 11% 4. Kayaking 7% N = Visitors Shady Cove Usage (Saturday vs. Sunday) N = 855 Saturday Sunday Based on an actual count from all Saturday and Sundays

15 Non- Rafter Visitor Survey Most of our respondents were locals! N = % of all non-rafter respondents lived within 30 miles of the river 67% lived within 15 miles Just over half of all non-rafter respondents spent money locally on food or gas during their visit to the River. Where our respondents are from: Oregon 93% California 3% 57% spent less than $20 30% spent between $21 and $40 12% spent between $41 and $80 Other(Texas, New Mexico, Nevada & Florida) 4%

16 Non-Rafter Visitor Survey How long have our respondents been coming to the Rogue River? 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 Fly Fishing N = 17-12% 18% 18% 24% 29% Bait/Tackle N = 53 2% 8% 11% 19% 25% 36% Rafting N = % 12% 23% 58% What makes for a pleasant experience on the Rogue? 35% 30% 25% 31% 28% 24% 27% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 28% 25% 21% 20% 15% 11% 8% 11% N = % 15% 10% 5% 0% 12% 7% 5% 5% 0% What detracts from a pleasant experience on the Rogue?

17 Guided Rafter Survey N = 15 5 of the 14 who responded, came to the area for OSF Most of the rest were passing through, here for vacation, or visiting family. Total $$ Spent Locally: Raft Trip $ Hotel $ 1, Camping $ Restaurant $ Groceries $ Entertainment $ Where our respondents are from: Oregon 13% California 67% Other (Nevada, Minnesota & Maryland) 20% Total $ 3, Average/person $ We suspect these numbers are extremely underestimated

18 More About our Respondents Non-Rafters Age Gender % Female 37% % Male 63% % N = 101 N = 101 Race/Ethnicity White/Caucasian 86% Hispanic 5% Asian 2% American Indian/Alaska Native 2% N= 99 Occupation Skilled Labor 18% Service (food, hospitality, etc.) 12% Professional 11% Healthcare 7% Admin/Office Worker 5% Education 4% Technical 2% Other 19% N = 99 Retired 21% Retired Non-Rafters 36% skilled laborers 23% former military 14% in education

19 More About our Respondents Guided Rafters Age Gender % Female 47% % Male 53% 55+ 7% N = 15 N = 15 Race/Ethnicity White/Caucasian 80% Hispanic 7% Asian 13% N= 15

20 How will the dam removal affect property values? Results from studies in other locations Interviews with local realtors Analysis of local real estate values (future) Issues are different for residential and agricultural or commercial properties

21 Factors affecting agricultural and commercial properties: Water availability (for agricultural) Potential recreation use

22 Factors affecting residential values: Free-flowing water (vs. impoundment) Water quality Easy river access Recreation access and fishery health Greenbelts, open spaces, developed parks

23 Property Values Analysis Gold Ray Dam Study Area Within 1,000 ft of Rogue River, between Hwy 234 and Touvelle Road Study Area Tax Lots (217 Total) Water Roads Parks

24 Preliminary conclusions: Agric and commercial: Water availability Potential future development pressure Residential: Downstream probably no major changes Upstream changes Water flow Fishing Recreation

25 Fishing Guide Interview N = 73 How will dam removal affect fishing guides? Initial Response Negatively 32% Positively 26% Positive in the long run 19% Not Sure 23% 26 of the guides told us how: Better for river and improve fish habitat. Better fish runs. 33% Mud and Turbidity 25% Increased or changed area 9% No fish counting stations 9% Big changes for the next few years 7% Concern for environment and wildlife 7% Fishing hole below dam 7% Affects River Downstream 2% Lack of Consideration for the affects felt by the fishermen 2% Gate key 2% 45% Positively, better for fish runs and good for the natural ecology of the river. Already has the murky water smells, I ve had to cancel trips. For the next 3-5 years the Gold Ray fish will suffer, but in the long run, it is positive.

26 Fishing Guide Interview Will removal of the dam increase the area where anglers guide? Yes 65% No 32% Not Sure 3% N = 73 Better access between Tou velle and Fishers Ferry. Don't need a key to access private sections of the river. 43 Fishing guides told us how it might affect the area where they guide on the river: Better access to the river/longer runs/new place to explore Thought there was potential 60% 23% Not yet, but future trips will go down through that section definitely. I m excited to explore some new fishing holes that have maybe been created. Concerned about losing the fishing hole below the dam Annoyed because gate key no longer gives them private access 9% 7% Actually, it will decrease it because the dam was a good place to guide since it backed up fish.

27 Lessons Learned and Next Steps: 1. Continue analysis of interviews with fishing guides Overall revenue generated by fishing guides along Rogue from Shady Cove to Gold Hill in 2009 and Continue collecting and analyzing interview data from 8 commercial rafting companies and 4 rental companies Overall revenue generated by commercial rafting companies and rental companies Early findings include new rafting runs and modifications of existing rafting trips, excitement over new opportunities 3. Follow-up research in four years Modify data collection to interview rafting and rental businesses starting in late summer.