Information needs for resource management in and around Florida Bay

Transcription

1 Information needs for resource management in and around Florida Bay Florida Bay and Adjacent Marine Systems Science Conference December 8-, 28 David E. Hallac Everglades and Dry Tortugas National Parks, South Florida Natural Resources Center, Homestead, FL

2 Information Needs Recreation Impacts Restoration of seagrass Understanding blue green algae blooms Understanding harmful algae blooms Sustainability of fisheries Climate change

3 Recreation Impacts

4 Can we restore all of this?

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7 Algae Blooms Do these events represent natural processes as part of a naturally evolving ecosystem?

8 Secondary Impacts?

9 Harmful Algal Blooms

10 Coastal Restoration Projects

11 Secondary Impacts?

12 Fisheries monitoring Figure.

13 Snook Year Mean Catch Rate Mean Harvest Rate Red Drum Fish/Angler Hou Year Mean Catch Rate Mean Harvest Rate Fish/Angler Hou Regulations Spotted Seatrout Year Mean Catch Rate Mean Harvest Rate Gray Snapper Fish/Angler Hou Year Mean Catch Rate Mean Harvest Rate Fish/Angler Hou

14 Sea level rise and habitat changes Identify areas of potential habitat transition Prioritize areas for conservation Relative risk of species extinctions Biodiversity Hotspots Assist with regional conservation strategies for individual species

15 Sea level rise projections range from 3 inches to 28 inches by 25

16 How do habitat patterns shift with sea level rise and restoration alternatives Restored Flows Couple Everglades hydrology models with habitat suitability models Habitat Redistribution

17 TIME Coupled SW & GW Model (FTLOADDS) Major Data Provided: Water levels, Total Discharge Freshwater Discharges at the Coast, Hydro-periods, Salinity Temperature EDFC TIME FATHOM

18 Simple HSI scenario modeling Spotted Seatrout Blue Crab Turtle Grass Anuran Communities

19 Multiple Logistic Regression probability of presence Multiple Regression X = non-zero CPUE Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) Bottom Depth Salinity Temperature Bottom Salinity Temperature HSI = CPUE CPUE MAX

20 Megalopae Spawning Female Megalopae Spawning Female Mapped Value Mapped Value Degrees C Degrees C Mapped Values Mapped Values Temperature Degrees C Degrees C Mapped Values Mapped Values PPT PPT Mapped Values Mapped Values Salinity PPT PPT HSI = Temperature.5 * Salinity.5 Spawning Female March - May Spawning Female and Larvae June - September Larvae October - December HSI = Geometric Mean for spawning females HSI = Minimum of spawning and larval HSI HSI = Geometric Mean for Larvae

21 Response to Light at Depth Response Response to to Salinity Salinity Response Response to to Substrate Substrate HSI HSI Hard Soft Hard Soft Bottom Bottom Bottom Bottom Response Response to to Temperature Temperature Light at Depth = [(.9*PAR)*e -K*depth ] HSI = (Light_Availability.25 * Salinity.25 * Temperature.25 * Previous.25 ) Recovery Lag Previous Month HSI +.5 Turtle Grass Habitat Suitability

22 Sensitivity to temperature and salinity Mapped Values Values IPCC (27): 2-3 or Degrees Degrees C Mapped Mapped Values Values PPT PPT Spawning Female Blue Crabs (Barnes et al. 26)

23 Response Response to to Salinity Salinity Response Response to to Hydroperiod Hydroperiod Response Response to to Land Land Cover Cover Oak Toad Salinity Component Oak Toad Salinity Component Oak Toad Land Cover Component Oak Toad Land Cover Component HSI HSI < 5 >= 5 < 5 >= 5 HSI HSI Cypress/ Flatw ood Hammock Cypress/ Flatw ood Hammock Sw amp Sw amp Forest Forest Marsh/ Marsh/ Wet Wet Prairie Prairie Dw arf Dw arf Cypress Cypress HSI = Land_Cover.33 * Salinity.33 * Hydroperiod.33 Cricket Frog Oak Toad Southern Toad Greenhouse Frog Squirrel Treefrog Cuban Treefrog Eastern Narrowmouth Toad Green Treefrog Pig Frog Southern Leopard Frog Amphibian species richness

24 South Florida Natural Resources Center Blue Crab Habitat Suitability

25 Juvenile Spotted Sea Trout

26 Turtle Grass

27 Turtle Grass

28 Amphibians

29 Chromolaena frustrata ENDEMIC to S. Florida Rare Plant Species 2 Endangered coastal plants (state listed) Institute for Regional Conservation lists 4 as extirpated or critically imperiled Easy to model with information on salinity- and floodingtolerance

30 Summary and Recommendations Recreation ecology what is the carrying capacity of Florida Bay, can you love the Bay to death? Innovative, inexpensive, landscape scale seagrass restoration techniques should be developed. Understanding algae bloom dynamics remains as a high priority Appropriate use of fisheries dependent monitoring data to manage marine fisheries How will restoration interact with sea level rise continued need for development of physical models Basic data needs still exist bathymetry, physiological tolerance of many marine organisms Acknowledgments: Leonard Pearlstine, Eric Swain, Edward Kearns, and Kiren Bahm