Adaptations of fishing communities to rapid climate velocities

Transcription

1 Adaptations of fishing communities to rapid climate velocities Malin Pinsky Kevin St. Martin, Talia Young, Emma Fuller, Kaycee Coleman, Eli Fenichel, Bonnie McCay, Simon Levin Rutgers Yale Princeton

2 Distribution shifts Spring

3 Distribution shifts Spring

4 American Lobster km per decade Spring

5 Climate velocity 15 C

6 Climate velocity 15 C

7 Climate velocity 15 C

8 Climate velocity 15 C km per decade

9 Across 325 taxa... Species shift ( latitude/year) Pinsky et al Science Thermal Predicted envelope rate shift of shift ( latitude/year) lat/yr)

10 Across 325 taxa... Species shift ( latitude/year) South North Thermal Predicted envelope rate shift of shift ( latitude/year) lat/yr) Pinsky et al Science

11 Across 325 taxa... Species shift ( latitude/year) North South Thermal Predicted envelope rate shift of shift ( latitude/year) lat/yr) Pinsky et al Science

12 Species follow climate velocity Species shift ( lat/yr) Pinsky et al Science Thermal Predicted envelope rate shift of shift ( latitude/year) lat/yr)

13 Species follow climate velocity Species shift ( lat/yr) p < r 2 = 0.38 Thermal Predicted envelope rate shift of shift ( latitude/year) lat/yr) Pinsky et al Science

14 How do people adapt?

15 How do people adapt?

16 Does adaptation feed back?

17 Interdisciplinary Teams Coastal SEES Kevin St. Martin Geography Bonnie McCay Anthropology Eli Fenichel Economics Simon Levin Ecology & Evolution Mike Fogarty Fisheries

18 Interdisciplinary Teams Coastal SEES Summer flounder Kevin St. Martin Geography Bonnie McCay Anthropology Eli Fenichel Economics Chris Kennedy Economics Janet Nye Ecology Hyemi Kim Climate Simon Levin Ecology & Evolution Mike Fogarty Fisheries Ken Able Ichthyology Olaf Jensen Fisheries Joel Fodrie Ecology

19 Questions Are fisheries moving?

20 Questions Are fisheries moving? How is fishing behavior changing?

21 Questions Are fisheries moving? How is fishing behavior changing? Which behaviors matter for feedbacks to ecological dynamics?

22 Questions Are fisheries moving? How is fishing behavior changing? Which behaviors matter for feedbacks to ecological dynamics? What counts as sustainable adaptation?

23 Questions Are fisheries moving? How is fishing behavior changing? Which behaviors matter for feedbacks to ecological dynamics? What counts as sustainable adaptation?

24 Poleward shift of summer flounder Species Latitude ( N) Species Pinsky & Fogarty 2012 Climatic Change Letters

25 Fishery landings shift as well Species Fishery Pinsky & Fogarty 2012 Climatic Change Letters

26 Early: high variability in fishery Fishery Pinsky & Fogarty 2012 Climatic Change Letters

27 Late: low variability in fishery Fishery Pinsky & Fogarty 2012 Climatic Change Letters

28 State quotas implemented Amendment 2 Fishery Pinsky & Fogarty 2012 Climatic Change Letters

29 Fishery landings shift more slowly 68% slower Species Fishery Pinsky & Fogarty 2012 Climatic Change Letters

30 Fisheries lag behind fish Red hake Summer flounder American lobster Yellowtail flounder 75% slower 68% slower 87% slower 85% slower Pinsky & Fogarty 2012 Climatic Change Letters

31 Summary Fisheries often lag behind the fish How is fishing behavior changing? Which behaviors matter for feedbacks to ecological dynamics? What counts as sustainable adaptation?

32 Summary Fisheries often lag behind the fish How is fishing behavior changing? Which behaviors matter for feedbacks to ecological dynamics? What counts as sustainable adaptation?

33 Summary Fisheries often lag behind the fish How is fishing behavior changing? Does behavior matter for cumulative impacts? What counts as sustainable adaptation? Emma Fuller Princeton Talia Young Rutgers Kaycee Coleman Rutgers

34 Trip reports for the Northeast US Fishing trips Amount of each species caught Gear used Location fished

35 Fishing communities Port + gear Cutler, ME Traps & pots New Bedford, MA Dredge

36 How are communities changing? In space Beaufort, NC Groundfish 65+

37 How are communities changing? In space Latitude Beaufort, NC Groundfish Year

38 How are communities changing? In space In effort Number of permits Beaufort, NC Groundfish Year

39 How are communities changing? In space In effort In species Bray-Curtis distance New Bedford, MA Groundfish Year

40 Species turnover # Permits Latitude New Bedford Groundfish 65+

41 New Bedford Groundfish 65+ Beaufort, NC Groundfish 65+ Species turnover # Permits Latitude

42 New Bedford Groundfish 65+ Beaufort, NC Groundfish 65+ Species turnover # Permits Latitude What are the drivers? Regulations? Economics? Climate?

43 Fishing community interviews

44 Summary Fisheries often lag behind the fish Evidence for multiple adaptation strategies (in space, in species, in effort) Which behaviors matter for feedbacks to ecological dynamics? What counts as sustainable adaptation?

45 Summary Fisheries often lag behind the fish Evidence for multiple adaptation strategies (in space, in species, in effort) Which behaviors matter for feedbacks to ecological dynamics? What counts as sustainable adaptation?

46 Harvest and climate velocity time t Space Fuller, Brush & Pinsky in press Ecosphere

47 Harvest and climate velocity time t Space Fuller, Brush & Pinsky in press Ecosphere

48 Harvest and climate velocity time t Space Fuller, Brush & Pinsky in press Ecosphere

49 Solution: protected areas?

50 Solution: protected areas? x x x x

51 Solution: protected areas? x x x x

52 PAs reduce harvest impacts Without protected areas Harvest rate Equilibrium biomass Climate velocity Fuller, Brush & Pinsky in review

53 PAs reduce harvest impacts Without protected areas With protected areas Harvest rate Climate velocity Fuller, Brush & Pinsky in review

54 PAs reduce harvest impacts Without protected areas With protected areas Harvest rate Climate velocity Fuller, Brush & Pinsky in review

55 Harvest displaced by PAs?

56 Harvest displaced by PAs?

57 Higher impacts with displaced effort Without protected areas With protected areas Harvest rate Climate velocity Fuller, Brush & Pinsky in review

58 Summary Fisheries often lag behind the fish Evidence for multiple adaptation strategies (in space, in species, in effort) Fisher response may determine utility of MPAs for climate adaptation What counts as sustainable adaptation?

59 Summary Fisheries often lag behind the fish Evidence for multiple adaptation strategies (in space, in species, in effort) Fisher response may determine utility of MPAs for climate adaptation What counts as sustainable adaptation?

60 Inclusive wealth Partha Dasgupta Kenneth Arrow Kirsten Oleson Edward Barbier Steve Polasky Kevin Mumford...

61 Inclusive wealth Natural capital Built capital Human capital + +

62 Sustainability = non-declining Natural capital Built capital Human capital + +

63 Acknowledgments Julie Olson Enrique Curchitser Sean Lucey NOAA trawl survey personnel Emily Klein James Watson Pinsky Lab

64 Summary Fisheries often lag behind the fish Adaptation in space, in species, and in effort Fisher response may determine utility of MPAs for climate adaptation Inclusive wealth concept can help define what counts as sustainable