Implan Modeling for Fisheries on Florida s East Coast: Alternative Approaches

Transcription

1 Implan Modeling for Fisheries on Florida s East Coast: Alternative Approaches Tom Stevens, David Mulkey, and Alan W. Hodges Food & Resource Economics Dept. Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences University of Florida Funded by: National Marine Fisheries Service

2 Research Objectives Describe IMPLAN software and databases. Evaluate how well the basic IMPLAN software & data model Florida s fishery related sectors. Evaluate ways to modify the standard IMPLAN models with regard to those sectors Provide guidelines and recommendations for developing an I-O modeling procedure that will best serve NMFS purposes.

3 Florida East Coast Fishing Industry Review and Analysis of Annual Landings Data, from Florida Marine Research Institute National Marine Fisheries Service

4 Florida East Coast Landings, Species/Size Value > $100,000 Fin Fish Fin Fish (continued) Invertebrates Food Shrimp Bait Shrimp Amberjacks Mullet, Silver Clams, Hard, Button Shrimp, Brown Bait Shrimp Bait Fish Pinfish Clams, Hard, Cherry Shrimp, Pink Ballyhoo Pompano Clams, Hard, Chowder Shrimp, Rock Blue Runner Porgies Clams, Hard, Littleneck Shrimp, Royal Red Bluefish Sardines, Spanish Clams, Hard, Middleneck Shrimp, Uncl. Cobia Scad, Bigeye (Goggle Eye) Clams, Hard, Topneck Shrimp, White Croaker Scad, Round (Cigarfish) Crabs, Blue (Hard) Dolphin Seatrout, Spotted Crabs, Blue (Soft) Drum, Black Shark Crabs, Stone, Jumbo Flounders Shark Fins Crabs, Stone, Large Grouper, Black Sheepshead Crabs, Stone, Medium Grouper, Gag Snapper, Gray (Mangrove) Crabs, Stone, Ungraded Grouper, Red Snapper, Mutton Lobster, Spiny Grouper, Scamp Snapper, Red Misc. Invertebrates Grouper, Snowy Snapper, Vermilion Oysters Grouper, Yellowedge Snapper, Yellowtail Scallops, Calico Grunts Spot Herring, Thread Swordfish Hogfish Tilefish (Golden) Jack, Crevalle Tilefish, Blueline (Gray) Jack, Mixed Triggerfish Jack, Other Tuna, Albacore Kingfish (Whiting) Tuna, Bigeye Mackerel, King Tuna, Blackfin Mackerel, Spanish Tuna, Bluefin Menhaden (Pogies) Tuna, Mixed Misc. Food Fish Tuna, Yellowfin Mojarra Tunny, Little (Bonito) Mullet, Black Wahoo

5 million $s & lbs 90 Fishery Landings and Value over Time Florida East Coast, Total Value Total Pounds

6 Nassau Duval St Johns Flagler Volusia Brevard Indian River St Lucie Martin Palm Beach Broward Dade million lbs and million $s Fishery Landings and Value by County Florida East Coast, North Central South Sum of lbs Sum of Value 0

7 BEA Economic Areas Florida East Coast 29: Jacksonville, FL-GA Economic Areas are one or more economic nodes and the surrounding counties that are economically related to the nodes. Economic relationships are primarily determined by commuting patterns 30: Orlando, FL 31: Miami - Ft. Lauderdale FL

8 Distribution of Landings Value by Gear Type, Florida East Coast, Otter Trawl, all Types Lines Hand, Other Pots and Traps, all types Long Lines all Types Cast Nets Gill & Trammel Nets By Hand Diving Outfits, Other Beam Trawls, Other Butterfly Nets Reel, Electric or Hydr. Spears, Hooks, Tongs Lines Troll, Other Trawls, Unspecified Lampara & Ring Nets Rakes, Other Percent of Total value 0% 9% 18% 27% 36% 45% $million

9 Inputs Fuel, Ice, Nets, Food, Insurance, Repair Inputs Utilities, Fuel, Packaging, Insurance, Maintenance Production Commercial Harvesters Intermediate Demand Dealers Processors Fishery Industry Product Flow Groceries Restaurants Final Demand (adapted from Steinback ) Households Exports

10 Regional IMPLAN Models (an overview) Embody all standard I/O Assumptions Regional sectors use the same proportion of inputs to produce final output as does national sector. Proportional distribution of output between intermediate sales, exports and final demand is the same as national sector. Magnitude of multipliers depend on choice of method for handling regional product supply and trade flows This allows user to customize IMPLAN models for particular applications.

11 IMPLAN Sector 16 Fishing (NAICS 1141) This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in the commercial catching or taking of finfish, shellfish, or miscellaneous marine products from a natural habitat, such as the catching of bluefish, eels, salmon, tuna, clams, lobsters, mussels, oysters, shrimp, frogs, sea urchins, and turtles.

12 IMPLAN Sector 71 Seafood Product Preparation and Packaging (NAICS 3117) This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following 1. canning seafood (including soup); 2. smoking, salting, and drying seafoods; 3. eviscerating fresh fish by removing heads, fins, scales, bones, and entrails; 4. shucking and packing fresh shellfish; 5. processing marine fats and oils; and 6. freezing seafood. Establishments known as floating factory ships that are engaged in the gathering and processing of seafood into canned seafood products are included in this industry.

13 Modeling Issues Technological resolution (IMPLAN technological coefficients are based on national averages) Sector detail of impact estimates Analysis of forward linked impacts to processing & distribution sectors Data requirements (cost & earnings data for fishery harvesters) Software limitations and requirements Human capital requirements (Effort for development vs. ease and speed of use) Transparency of modeling methodology

14 Three General Approaches Adhoc IMPLAN application on case-by-case basis. Applications external to IMPLAN but using IMPLAN multipliers (Kirkley) Incorporate new regional industry sectors within IMPLAN (Steinback and Thunberg).

15 Kirkley Methodology User inputs: Value of landings by gear-types and subregions Adjustment for inflation Calculate regional impacts of harvester landings by gear types Calculate regional impacts for dealers, processors and wholesalers Allocate regional impacts by gear-types to sub-regions Model Outputs Impact Summary tables for harvesters and seafood industry segments for region and subregions Sub-regional product flow among harvesters, dealer/processors, and wholesalers. Adapted from James E. Kirkley, Assessing the Economic Importance of Commercial Fisheries in the Mid-Atlantic Region: A Users Guide

16 Steinback/Thunberg Methodology Estimate revenue impacts of regulatory changes on subregional fishing sectors (outside of IMPLAN) Use modified IMPLAN model with additional sub-regional harvesting, processing and distribution sectors to calculate impacts Proportionally allocate forward linked impacts to subregions based on subregional sector composition (outside of IMPLAN)

17 Initial Conclusions Florida fishery sectors violate the standard I/O assumption of homogenous product and production technology with wide variety of species and gear-types Based on Florida case, distribution of outputs between domestic use (regional and U.S.) differs dramatically from national commercial fishing sector Regional impact evaluations will require information on production technology (input purchases) and on market channels for product beyond dockside. I/O models are by nature demand driven and ideally suited for assessing the impact of changes in final demand. But, regulatory changes are supply oriented, so this requires analysis to address forward linked sectors while avoiding double counting

18 Initial Conclusions Application will require decisions on: Number of Sectors, Number of Regions, and resulting data requirements. The three BEA regions appear to be appropriate for Florida East Coast. Seven gear-types technologies could be used to represent 90 percent of fishery output. It is unresolved whether seafood processors and dealers should be represented by their own IMPLAN sector, otherwise they would be represented as wholesale trade sector.

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