HTR Report Thoroughbred Handicapping Newsletter Jan/Feb 2018

Transcription

1 HTR Report Thoroughbred Handicapping Newsletter Jan/Feb 2018 Brought to you by Ken Massa Handicapping Technology and Research Contents [1] Front Page [2] HTR Year in Review 2017 K=1 Overlays Longshot Plays Fr1 Bombs Razor Sharp [4] Tournament Prep Longshot Scanning [6] E-Book 2017/2018 Advanced Data Analysis TSpot v MSpot Long Term Sampling Insight into Statistics WROI / PROI [11] Beyond Handicapping Supplements for the Mind [12] Back Page Announcements The HTR Report newsletter is converted from a Microsoft Word Document to a.pdf file for viewing with the free Adobe Reader. The newsletter may be viewed while on-line or the file can be downloaded to your computer hard-drive for off-line reading and printing. The newsletter is available bi-monthly. The current edition of the HTR Report is available on the Internet from our members web site only. The newsletter is included as part of a paid subscription to HTR s monthly download service ($119/mo). All proprietary rights to this material belong to HTR alone. No portion of this product may be reproduced, copied or transmitted on the Internet without the express written consent of Ken Massa. All articles and information in this newsletter are written by Ken Massa unless otherwise stated. Test data files are provided with permission from Handicappers Data Warehouse and Equibase Corp. The test results, analysis and opinions found herein are those of HTR only - Handicappers Data Warehouse and Equibase Corp are not responsible for the written contents of this newsletter and cannot be held accountable for any claims made in it.

2 HTR Report 2 Year in Review The Best of HTR 2017 It's always fun to look back at a complete year of race results to locate the most outrageous overlay winners. It is hit and miss with any methodology and none of us are going to be following every track 365-days a year. A review like this is mostly for learning purposes and feedback. There is nothing wrong with "woulda-coulda-shoulda" as long as it is burned into memory for future insights. Inevitably, a prime race situation or similar value play discussed below will pop up during your betting hours and then you'll jump on it. (K) =1 Plays of the Year We are fully aware that almost all of the K=1 / K110+ horses go to the gate with odds less than 2/1, most are favorites, and the majority are hammered late by the public on the tote. However, now and then something curious happens to the obvious (K) plays with the betting action, producing some genuine value at 3/1 or more. The stats below show the results of betting every K=1 / K110+ for the year 2017 as well as betting on a perceived overlay of the same group with odds 3/1 or more. Purse $10,000+ was the only filter for the test, and all data is from calendar year 2017 at every track. K=1/K110+ All Odds 3/1+ Plays Win 39% 19% ITM 75% 55% WROI PROI AvgWin $4.40 $10.10 I.V Analysis About 10% of the K=1/K110+ plays go off at odd of 3/1 or more. They are worth waiting for as the ROI jumps up to However, the Place ROI drops! This is often an indication of a favorable win streak for the horses that ran well in the sample. But with K=110+, they are almost all contenders to start with, so that theory doesn't hold any water as luck is not a key factor here as it is with longshots. Top rated (K) horses are expected to contend for the win and those at odds of 3/1 up are excellent bets - no downside. Next let's review the best (K) plays of the year. ALB Aug30, 2017, Race-3; K=1 / K110+ Winner paid $31.60 Not likely too many of us would have been aware of this one, but it was the highest price paid all year for a clear-cut (K) top pick. When the race is examined, notice it was a 2yF maiden event with two well bet FTS. Heavy insider wagering action on one or more of the other entrants is often the reason why odds drift way up on a K110+ like this. Best K110+ Overlay As we noted above, the average K110+ pays $4.40 to Win, so anything with odds above 3/1 is a surprise. My choice for the overlay K110+ play of 2017 was the 8th at BEL on June 8th. The Grade II race was won by a standout mare Mississippi Delta who paid $15.20 (6/1). That's a remarkable value price in a high-profile race. As is often the case, the overlay is due to excessive wagering on the chalk. Runner up for overlay of the year in the K110+ category was the winner of the 3rd at SA on the 4th of July which also paid $ There was no over-betting on the favorite in the SA race and the winner was clearly a contender on paper offering good value on the busiest racing day of the summer.

3 HTR Report 3 Year in Review The Best of HTR 2017 Longshots Some amazing longshot winners with outstanding HTR credentials won at high prices during My first test used the following criteria to find them. Pos-Total 8 or more items which is an excellent resume' for any horse to run well K rating 85 or more, indicating it is a contender in its field K ranking 1 thru 7, avoiding the problematic low ranked (K) plays (rank = 8, 9) $$ often a key signal for live longshots Final tote odds 20/1 up, looking for horses that paid $42 or more to win (tourney 'cap') Purse $10,000+ to weed out mostly cheap races that most of us would not bet seriously There were 19 matches to this criteria during I was expecting less than a dozen hits and certainly did expect a couple of $100+ winners including one from a major track Grade I event. Co-Longshots of the Year 2017 AQU-9th; April 8th; winner: #7 Green Grotto paid $ This was a Grade-I race for older males at 7.0f on (Fast) Dirt on a Stakes Saturday. Green Grotto at an astonishing 54/1 was clearly a contender on paper. The (K) rating was over 90, he was ranked 3rd on the HTR screen and his KAT rating of 7 was best. He scored the coveted PSVX ++++ with a strong Pos- Total = 8. The MLO was 15/1 and the AML just 10/1. Why did the usually sharp NY bettors let this one drift up so far? There was an even-money favorite in the field of 9, but that was expected. It looks like the key reason the public let him go at high odds was due to the perception of an early speed duel taking place at the tough distance of 7.0f. They were dead wrong, he wired the field anyway. HOU-6th; Feb. 6th; winner: #7 Witt's Town paid $124 to Win This may be the most ridiculous overlay of Nothing wrong with this 3yr filly at all on paper, she was ranked 3rd on the (K) and [HTR] screens, had strong totals with Pos-Scan including the highest PER in the field and the PSVX With MLO 15/1 and AML 10/1, why the lack of wagering? She was a Delta Downs shipper, but that isn't much a of class jump moving to HOU. The previous start was a poor effort in the mud that was excusable. Heavy betting on the favorite was part of the reason, but this horse was the longest odds in the field by a ton, so it was just a big fish that got away. Honorable Mention Longshot Winners You might argue that the HOU race was obscure, but that was not the case with AQU winner above on a Stakes Saturday. All of the races below were also high-profile events at major tracks. Each of the horses listed below was also a PSVX +++ or SA-4th; Dec 30; #2 Midnight Crossing (AML 5/1) paid $47.60 in a Grade III w/ a 6-horse field. KEE-5th; Oct. 7; #2 Bucchero (AML 9/1) paid $55.20 in a Graded Stakes, top Pos-Scan total. WO-7th; June 11; #5 Guy Caballero (AML 7/1) paid $42.60 in Stakes with just 6 runners. KEE-5th; Apr 23; #7 Bookman (AML 10/1) paid $46.60 in a MSW; wire to wire. OP-10th; Mar 25; #3 Grandpa's Dream (12/1) paid $45.40 also a MSW, wire to wire. Comments I could go on and on with this list, especially if we lower the odds requirement to 15/1 and eliminate the (K) criteria. What do all these winning horses have in common that will help us tag one of them at a crucial time? Let's talk about that on the next page.

4 HTR Report 4 Year in Review Tournament Prep Longshot Scanning The NHC and HPWS are on the horizon and I'm hoping our HTR members attending will catch a bomb like the ones listed on the previous page. Let's analyze what is typically happening when a big price scores at a major track. The examples on page-3 do a great job encapsulating what to keep your eyes open for. Here is what almost all of them had in common ---> Odds much higher than the AML Strong Pos-Scan total 8 or more PSVX ++++ or +++ $$ The factors listed below were also typical when a high-priced horse won Early speed tendencies, including grass, the public loathes front-runners on turf Over betting on the favorite(s) Stakes or non-claiming race The 2017 Preakness (May 20 / PIM-13) is a memorable race for many HTR subscribers because the winner, Cloud Computing ($28.80) featured every single attribute listed above including a huge Pos-Total = 17. He gave us a solid lesson on when to jump on a big price play. Next, we discuss each of the longshot criteria listed in the bullet points above. Odds Much Higher than AML (and usually below MLO) The AML includes many of the key HTR factors in its formula. But the AML was not designed to locate longshots, value or overlays. Its purpose was to estimate wagering action and correct the MLO if it was distorted due to scratches. How do we know for sure if the high odds are not a result of insiders backing off a 'dead horse'? A strong Pos-Scan rating is the tip off that the betting public is wrong (read next). Pos-Scan Total 8+ Tournament players can easily find a pool of potential longshots among the horses with 8 or more Pos- Total. With a least 8 positive elements going for it, most of these horses are well meant. I like to see a diversity of factors in the Pos-Scan though. Sometimes a single horse will cluster several positives based on dominant early speed ratings. If that's the case, look for something outside the realm of the early speed factors. For example, a high% T+J combo or a big PED number (450+) are good endorsements. But the most important of all is a Razor Sharp workout. This is because a Razor is only recorded after the horse's last start. When we see a Razor, we know the horse is fit. PSVX +++ / ++++ The powerful PSVX rating spots potential high value plays by comparing the AML with the Pos-Total. This saves you time from having to make your own value line, but also requires a close eye on the tote. Many of the best PSVX plays are ruined on the board because the public picked up on many of the same positives. For tournament players, keep your eye on the ball which is 10/1 or higher odds. You'll need a home run to get some cash, don't play conservative. $$ The "$$" marker is not that critical to this discussion because it is so common, but the reason I include it is that it seems to be ever-present when a logical bomb hits. You might want to test it out with "Luck" or "Razor" for greater potency along with Pos-Totals and PSVX.

5 HTR Report 5 Tournament Strategy Tournament Prep Longshot Scanning Early Speed In terms of pre-tournament preparation, the most important aspect to study is the early speed tendencies of each Track/Distance/Surface. Analysis of Fr1 is the critical element, but other ratings such as E/P, Fr2, PAC and Run Style are useful to test as well. Knowledge of the value of early speed factors is a major advantage over the tournament competition. Let's look at some demographics at the key tournament tracks for the NHC and HPWS. Fr1=1 (top ranked 1st call velocity rating) is the focus here with Dirt Sprints. You can repeat these tests with any other set of ratings or Dist/Surf, I'll show you the methodology at the end of the article. The goal is to enhance your ability to interpolate data and draw conclusions from it that will assist your tournament decisions. Fr1=1 Fast Dirt Sprints (6.0f-7.5f) Purse $10, Results Track Plays Win W+P WROI PROI AvgWin I.V. High AQU % 30% $ $56 FG % 30% $ $27 GP % 36% $ $170 LRL % 31% $ $42 OP % 30% $ $72 SA % 36% $ $33 TAM % 34% $ $59 Analysis FG, LRL, and SA have a similar profile. The win rates are acceptable in all cases, and excellent at SA (21%). However, the ROI is terrible. The average winner pays under $8.00 and there was just one cap horse ($42 at LRL) among them in an entire year (remember, these are dirt sprints only). This is ample evidence of several things happening. Notably that most of the Fr1=1 winners at these tracks are favorites or low odds and that longshots are getting whipped consistently. Another consideration is the likelihood that almost all of the Fr1=1 plays at these locations are under valued, even the longshots. Plenty of evidence to stay away from longshots entered in dirt sprints at these tracks. GP is the standout hero in this data. Strong statistics across all the columns with elevated I.V., ROI and AvgWin. There was a $170 bomb winner and that may have been the pivot point for that Win ROI exceeding 1.00, but the sample size is very large (515) and the Place ROI was also good. All in all, the Fast Dirt Sprints at GP are fertile ground for Fr1=1 horses at any price. AQU, OP and TAM are wildcards here. The Win ROI at AQU is promising, but the Place returns were terrible. This often indicates lucky longshot hits. But the average win payoff was strong ($10.80) with a high pay of just $56, so that means winners in the $15 to $30 range must have hit often. With shorter fields, the Place prices are depressed in NY as the favorites often finish 2nd. OP had the lowest Win% on the list and a terrible Win ROI. But the Place ROI moved way up. This is often a tell-tale sign that the factor was 'snake-bit' and the majority were passed in deep stretch. That's no surprise with Fr1 plays. OP has had streaks of Fr1 success in the past, so the jury is still out. TAM may be a case of diminishing quality and field strength. Just a few years ago, TAM was a major player in tournament results with longshots galore. Nowadays things have changed. Looks chalky and Fr1 horses quitting more often. Conclusion is that a live longshot with Fr1=1 in a dirt sprint at GP gets a big look. Not so at SA and most of the others where disappointment is the norm. That's a lot of analysis for a narrow window (Fr1=1 Dirt Sprint only), but that's the level of homework it takes to win 6-figure tourney payoffs.

6 HTR Report 6 Handicapping with HTR Advanced Data Analysis and Spot Play Development In a previous chapter (see newsletter dated Nov/Dec 2017) we looked at the TSpot rating with a long series of data during a 4-year period. The TSpot results were highly volatile and featured massive swings in ROI from month to month. Dreadful losing streaks and win droughts were common. This is tradeoff with any spot play that relies on high priced winners for production. TSpot is all about 'bomb throwing' and not a steady investment tool. MSpot is a distant cousin of TSpot and was designed for maiden races only. The concept with both was to bundle dozens of smaller sample spot plays into a single entity. It is possible that a maiden entrant on turf can be tagged with both TSpot and MSpot, but this is rare. MSpot has a far different data profile than TSpot and that is the subject of this article. One goal with spot play development is to balance the volatility with the ROI. We will accept a lower ROI for greater stability. It's a solid tradeoff to find a play that wins at an acceptable rate with some medium and longshot winners in the mix. The tradeoff with TSpot may be too extreme for most bettors because both the risk and reward are very high. Let's begin with a review of the I.V. (Impact Value) and how it relates to volatility and losing streaks. Most of your test results with a positive (1.01+) or promising (0.90+) ROI will fit into one of broad these I.V. categories. Here are the Pros and Cons of each level. I.V and higher Pros: High win rate above 24%. Very low volatility and short losing streaks. High confidence of forward results. No downside for investment risk. Cons: ROI under 1.00 in most cases. Limited opportunity for raising ROI as public over bets these horses in the near term. Probably requires rebate for profit. I.V Pros: Moderate win rate 17%-23%. Mild volatility and acceptable losing streaks. Dependable results going forward. Limited downside investment risk. ROI can be pushed to profitability with filtering; ROI = 1.05 or more (+5% up) is a reasonable target return. Cons: Risk rises considerably as the I.V. falls toward 1.50, but this is usually a necessary tradeoff to reach profitable returns. High ROI and big prices are not typical. I.V Pros: Win rate 13%-16%. High ROI achievable with multiple longshot winners. Profits can soar. Perfect for contest and tournament play. Cons: Losing streaks are common. Risky investment and moderate to high volatility going forward. Some luck and good timing is required. I.V Pros: Blowout ROI potential. Boxcar winners and windfall profits. Tournament championships. Cons: Win rate poor at 9%-12%. Losing streaks are a killer. High risk and extreme volatility. Loads of luck and perfect timing are needed. I.V. under 0.80 (< 10% winners) Bombs away. Stabs. Big money if lucky. Lottery risk. A frustrating aspect of mining data is uncovering a high ROI play with a decent sample size, only to realize that the play has a terrible win rate and reliance on big longshots that may not repeat in the future. Balance is the key with I.V. and lower ROI is fine if the volatility is under control.

7 HTR Report 7 Handicapping with HTR Advanced Data Analysis and Spot Play Development With the I.V. values in mind, let's review results over the last 4 years for TSpot and MSpot and draw some long-term conclusions from a 4-year sample. TSpot and MSpot 4-Year Study Item Plays Win ITM WROI PROI AvgWin I.V. High TSpot % 40% $ $158 MSpot % 47% $ $139 TSpot % 40% $ $98 MSpot % 46% $ $120 TSpot % 41% $ $90 MSpot % 45% $ $81 TSpot % 40% $ $91 MSpot % 45% $ $76 TSpot 4yr Avg % 40% $ n/a MSpot 4yr Avg % 46% $ n/a Long Term appraisal TSpot results are a good example of a spot play that needs to be scrutinized from long-term position. The user can recognize a decline over time and note the heavy volatility inherent in any spot play that relies on longshots for profits. The average I.V. over the four-year period was 1.27 and that puts it squarely into the moderate to high risk zone. An alarming drop in statistics occurred in 2017 with TSpot. There are many reasons why a Turf spot play can fall apart, but the predominant one is chronic inclement weather. Not only does this cause races to be moved off the grass on a rainy day, but it also distorts the past-performances and natural layoff gaps of Turf runners going forward. Tracks must deal with soggy grass by placing temporary rails further out to protect the inside from excessive wear and this creates more unpredictable outcomes. MSpot has remained rock steady over the four years. A 365-day testing cycle is sufficient for clear understanding. Any 365-day test result with MSpot during the last 4 years would have produced similar stats. Let's look at each statistical category for more interpretation. Plays Both of these spot plays have substantial play counts for a year. That allows us plenty of latitude for separation and filtering for profits. If a spot play reaches 1000 plays/year, it is on solid ground and we can work on eliminating losing race categories to raise the ROI. With plays/year the sky is the limit on further filtering which includes removing swaths of negative categories including individual tracks, race conditions, age groups, purse values, and distance/surface categories. MSpot offers a robust spot play opportunity because its play count is so high (4000+) each year. Reduction in plays with filtering to pump the ROI is relatively painless. Slashing Dirt Routes (both Fast and Wet), for example, instantly raises the WROI a couple of points while holding the play count over You can quickly eliminate general Dist/Surf categories on the [Negatives] filter module within Robot3. In this case, check off: [x] No Dirt Routes and [x] No Wet Routes. Also remember to filter and test maiden races only (MSW and MCL) when using MSpot as part of the criteria. This will speed up the Robot considerably.

8 HTR Report 8 Handicapping with HTR Advanced Data Analysis and Spot Play Development Win% I become concerned if a spot play dips under 15% winners. As shown above, this is usually the case with TSpot. The 15% level is a key pivot area for you to be aware of. Volatility rises as the Win% drops and the losing streaks potentially ruinous. Personally, I discard any spot play with a win rate under 10% no matter how high the ROI. Some handicappers are well capitalized and can withstand the droughts that ensue with losing streaks on low-percentage bombs, particularly if they bet them to Place or include them in the Trifecta and Superfecta. Any spot play, regardless of Win%, can be leveraged successfully with enough cash on hand and there is no question that higher risk equals higher rewards when things go well. For most of us though, there is a limit to how much frustration we can tolerate with our 30/1 shots fading to 3rd and 4th all the time! ITM% has an easy ballpark number that is almost set in stone for forward confidence = 50%. TSpot is well below this figure and MSpot is slightly below it. The 50% benchmark is simply a reminder that volatility impact is greater as the ITM% drops below 50%. If your spot play can hit ITM 50% or more, then the majority of your plays are competitive and eventually they'll win in bunches. Unfortunately, as most of us have found, the better ROI plays fall below this mark. WROI WROI is the number one tool for assessment of a spot play and horse racing statistics. WROI is straightforward, it tells what happens if we bet a buck to Win on every one of our plays. The nice round number WROI= 1.00 is effectively break even. But most of your initial test results will fall under 1.00 if the sample is large. This is certainly the case with TSpot and MSpot most years. An ROI of 0.90 or more with at least 1000 plays is promising for sure. With MSpot we see an ROI > 0.90 with over 4000 plays. With so much room for filtering, we can almost be assured of a profitable scenario with further research. Keep in mind that the Win takeout is about 17% nationwide (random betting ROI = 0.83), so even a large-sample spot play result with ROI = 0.87 has potential. Data mining is all about turning a losing ROI into a winning one. Even the venerable (K) rating, which has a full year return of about 0.84 for every play (30,000+ races) can be sliced and diced and worked into a small profit because the sample size is huge and diverse. PROI can be a very valuable tool in spot play assessment. I have learned to eyeball the symmetry between WROI and PROI and conclude quick assessment on most data samples. Let's consider this list below with analysis on the next page. All WROI = 1.05 in the examples; consider ---> WROI PROI Let's dig deeper into these W/P ROI ratios on the next page. Let's analyze the information they tell us about our results so that you can eyeball the ratio and make an instant evaluation.

9 HTR Report 9 Handicapping with HTR Advanced Data Analysis and Spot Play Development Let's go over each of the WROI / PROI pairs on the list above and analyze what the result is telling us about our spot play and data sample. We'll assume 1000 plays/per year with each. WROI / PROI Pairings and Analysis 1.05 / 1.02 This is true nirvana for a thoroughbred test result. The Place is showing a profit as well as the Win. Won't see this too often, but it is major find when you do. We can bet Win/Place with no downside. Beyond that, a high Place ROI indicates genuine consistency with all the runners that qualify for the spot play and the public is not picking up on it / 0.97 This is more common high positive outcome. While the Place is not quite profitable, betting to Place is excellent insurance with the Win. Horses are "live, and the public is missing it / 0.92 While a considerable drop in Place returns than the two above, this is still a strong positive result and actually a more natural pairing. That's because medium and high-priced horses often have deflated Place prices if the favorite finishes 2nd. No worries at all with the validity of the Win result, but it is a marginal decision to bet these horses to Place along with the Win. Perhaps the 2nd tier in the exacta/tri is a better choice / 0.87 At this level we begin to scrutinize and put up the caution flag. This result is quite common when the sample is based on races typical of small field size: Main Track Routes, Stakes, Allowance, and generally at many tracks these days that just can't fill the barns. For example, on the West Coast the few remaining tracks outside of SA and DMR (GG, EMD, Cal Fairs, PM, LRC) have trouble filling fields, especially on weekdays. The weekday problem is apparent even with SA and DMR with fields of 6 and 7 common. Reduced field size depletes Place mutuels and the favorites are finishing in the top-2 more often. This distorts the W/P ROI picture, but does not deter us from betting to Win. If this result is based on a more typical sample with normal field size, then the issue is more complicated. It could mean a hot streak of winners for the spot play, or a cluster of high priced hits. A gray area for sure, but not necessarily bad / 0.82 and 1.05 / 0.77 When the Place price drops this far below the Win ROI, there are several key reasons why this happens. The most common is that the spot play has hit an unusual number of high priced winners (bombs) in the sample. Place prices on horses with odds over 20/1 are rarely congruent to the Win. Typically, it would be caused by a horse paying $55 to Win and $17 to Place; Place price paying less than 1/3 of the Win price. As mentioned earlier, field size and favorites that finish 2nd put a big damper on the Place payoffs in many races. Another reason for the big disparity between W/P is that the play became "hot" for a time and there was a tilt toward the Win for the live runners. This is ideal for us bettors while it happens, but it rarely continues. Finally, a ratio like this can indicate the spot play is a "winner take all" proposition and the live ones are either winning or finishing up the track. This is often the case with quick early speed and Fr1 front-runners. If they don't clear - they quit. But a few of them will clear the field and win wire to wire at good prices, yet if they fade, they rarely hold for 2nd. In all cases mentioned above, the spot play is on shaky ground and is unlikely to repeat the Win ROI going forward. The lower the PROI, the less likely the play will carry on with a Win profit. That's why the 1.05 / 0.77 was illustrated. It reminds you that this is an almost impossible situation to repeat because a run of favorable luck with big longshots rarely repeats.

10 HTR Report 10 Handicapping with HTR Advanced Data Analysis and Spot Play Development If you suspect a spot play Win ROI was dependent on a few lucky bomb winners, consider the following information to help you track down the reasons. All of the reports in Robot3 include a "High" column. This tells us what the highest Win price was in the sample. If the "High" was over $100, that can have a big impact on the WROI and you may want to retest (see below). If the "High" creates suspicion that the spot play is a 'bomb throw', then run the [Last100] test report and view the typical payoffs. If many of the winners are big longshots, you have a dilemma. Most likely, the spot play has already run through its hot spell and won't repeat going forward. Rerun the spot play and set the Tote Odds range to (max). This will prevent the biggest bombs from entering into the ROI picture. A typical outcome would be an initial test result showing W/P ROI = 1.05 / 0.80, with the retest at 0.86 / This instantly alerts you that the profit all came from big longshots. While the big prices might repeat into the future, this is a risky gamble. The [Learn New] report has a "Mod ROI" column. Mod = modified ROI with a limit placed on the Win price of $ All winners are still counted, but the Win price ROI is computed based on a maximum of $ If the "Mod ROI" still shows a profit, you are on solid ground for a winning spot play moving forward. AvgWin The average win price can be helpful to understand what the typical winner will pay and the odds range that surrounds a spot play. But once the AvgWin reaches double digits, as we saw in most of the examples herein, it can be bit deceptive. Look at this mythical example of 5 races. Winner1 $5.00 Winner2 $5.00 Winner3 $80.00 (!) Winner4 $5.00 Winner5 $5.00 AvgWin = $20.00 The average in this small sample = $ Which tells us absolutely NOTHING about this spot play win payoff profile. That's why I encourage you to use the "LAST 100" (w/ Winners only) report in Robot3 to view a list of winners in date order (most recent first) and the variety of prices hit during the sequence. Set it up as follows in the Robot. Bring up your spot play Enter the [Angles] module Click the check-box for "Race Winners" Click [Last 100] button to run the report Using the "Race Winners" filter is obviously an 'after-the-fact' element so don't even think about the ROI and other stats as they will be off the wall! But what you will pick up with the '100' list is great feedback to provide you with knowledge about the play and what normally happens with the Win price when they hit. The AvgWin is rarely distorted at the low end below $8.00, but as it rises, the mix of winners may be more widespread. That's your signal to retest the play with odds in ranges above and below the AvgWin to find out where the 'sweet spot' may lie.

11 HTR Report 11 Beyond Handicapping Supplements for the Horseplayer's Mind The latest big thing in nutritional science is called "nootropics". These are supplement combinations ('stacks' or 'cocktails') that enhance concentration, focus, memory and analytic brain power. I have tried quite a few of these and will share my experience. All of them should be safe for healthy people in moderate doses, but do your own homework and research online and read more, especially if side-effects are potentially involved. We have to put a disclaimer here - always check with your doctor first before trying anything new. Caffeine + The "T" Amino Acids I'm guessing that virtually everyone reading this has had a positive experience using caffeine. The morning coffee and the various tea types (green, black, etc.) are the most popular methods of ingesting the stimulant which undoubtedly energizes and makes us feel good. Energy drinks such as Red Bull, Monster and 5-Hour Energy shots contain higher doses of caffeine combined with various other nutrients, such as vitamin B12, to enhance and prolong the caffeine buzz. Caffeine is an excellent mental stimulant but there are the obvious side-effects of jitters, increased heart rate and rise in blood pressure if too much is ingested. To mitigate the side-effects and calm the body so the caffeine can work with the brain are several amino acids that start with the letter "T" listed below. Taurine Tryptophan Theanine Tyrosine Sometimes they are prefixed with an "L" such as 'L-Theanine' which is an enhanced form. Each of these "T" amino acids are relaxing to the CNS (central nervous system), the heart, and the brain and thus neutralize the side-effects of caffeine while allowing more of it to be consumed. My standard dose of each of the amino acids is 500 mg. consumed with about mg. of caffeine (typical in a large black coffee or a single energy drink or shot). This provides an amazing amount of focused energy without the jitters. However, I noticed over time that the effect wore off and the dosage needed to be raised. This is not a problem as the amino acids are all safe and found in food protein anyway and they are not chemicals or drugs. Many college students now use this nootropic stack instead of the addictive Rx drugs Modafinil or Adderall as an "all-nighter" study boost. The caffeine stack works well, but there are issues with taking in too much caffeine, especially later in the day when it might disrupt natural sleep patterns and keep you awake. You can use the four "T" amino acids at bed time as well and combined with Magnesium and Calcium should relax the brain and body if there is any leftover buzz. Huperzine-A + Alpha GPC If you want to get a little more serious about enhancing your brain power, try these two strange sounding supplements together. I will not discuss the science behind them in this text it as you can read it online with thousands of references and reviews. I take 200 mg. of Huperzine-A and 600 mg. of Alpha GPC in the morning. My wife and son also take this dose along with the caffeine stack. We are getting a major brain boost and it has helped all of us with no noted side-effects except perhaps feeling a little too energetic at night. Even though considered safe, it is best to take a day or two off from any of the nootropic combinations to help the brain and nervous system settle down. My results have been good, and I definitely feel a difference in mental processing, energy and cognition. HTR software is also good for the brain, it makes you think, analyze, and use your mental muscles, but sometimes we need a little extra boost and you might want to give these supplements a try.

12 HTR Report 12 Announcements and Reminders NHC 2018 (Feb 9) and HPWS 2018 (March 8) Congratulations to the dozens of HTR members who qualified for these two major live tournaments. It will be our first crack at them using the PSVX, so I hope it pays off with a bomb or two during the contests. Go for the money and have a fun weekend. Software Updates By the time you read this, all of our installation packages will be ready with the latest January 2018 updates for each program == HTR2, HTR-Tour, MaxVel, and Robot3. I'm still working on the HTR-Tablet update and it will be updated for the next newsletter cycle. There is an online PDF resource that details the 2018 update information in the HTR-Library = HTR Handicapping Technology & Research Voic HTR kmsoft@earthlink.net HTR website (software updates): HTR Report is an on-line newsletter and is published bi-monthly, it is available in the HTR Subscriber Zone around the 15 th of the month. Monthly subscribers can view the current newsletter for no charge online, Adobe Reader software (free) required. Past issues over a year old are available in our website archive library. Products and services from KM Software HTR Unlimited Download: $119/mo unlimited access, all tracks. HTR Software Complimentary, no fee for updates. Bi-Monthly HTR Newsletter Current Issue is included with monthly subscription for members Archives of Past Issues are available on the HTR2.com website.