WELCOME TO FORM LAB MAX

Transcription

1 WELCOME TO FORM LAB MAX Welcome to Form Lab Max. This welcome document shows you how to start using Form Lab Max and then as you become more proficient you ll discover your own strategies and become a more profitable bettor. If you require further assistance or would like to share ideas, please feel free to contact us at support@footballformlabs.com TABLE OF CONTENTS: Table of contents:... 1 Form Lab Max: Video Support guides... 2 Form Lab Max: Match Data... 3 Form Lab Pro: Pre Match Queries... 9 Form Lab Max: Daily Reports Form Lab Max: Top Tips for getting started P a g e 1

2 FORM LAB MAX: VIDEO SUPPORT GUIDES There are a number of video guides available to accompany this edition. The full list is just below with other links provided next to the relevant content throughout this welcome guide. Click on the links to view the videos online. If you have trouble viewing the video, try clicking on the download button underneath the video. Click Full Size to enlarge the videos. Note, the videos may contain previews of some features from Form Lab Black. Introduction to the Football Form Labs: 3 Minute Introduction. 8 Minute Introduction. Using the Match Data Analysis: The Form Tables The Key Indicators The Game Notes Using Pre Match Queries: Daily Reports: The Head to Head Filter Using the Period Filter To Find Opportunities Using the Position Filter to Find Opportunities Combining the Position & Pre Match Filter to Find opportunities. Form Lab s Recommended Pre Match Routine. Form Lab Max s Daily Reports: Bet Ideas & Analysis. Finding The Best Odds: Finding the best odds for ideas generated by FormLab. P a g e 2

3 FORM LAB MAX: MATCH DATA The match data tab gives you a one page summary of the relevant betting trends for any particular match. It s split into four main areas as follows: i) The Form Tables The form tables can be used to highlight regular form, but are more useful for uncovering trends such as home/ away basis and to see if a trend is deteriorating or improving. There are many elements to compare teams on using the drop down menu as the screen shot below shows. The example shown uses the profitability table which ranks teams based on the profits available from backing them in their last 20 games. As you can see, backing Arsenal or Maxburn has been an especially poor idea with big losses made from backing both teams. However if you look at the Draw column (D) there have been reasonable profits available from backing the draw with both these teams. P a g e 3

4 There are many analytical treasures waiting to be found here, such as looking at Over/ Under trends or Half Time/ Full Time double result trends. Very quickly, you will build up a picture of a league and those teams you should look out for in certain markets or match-ups. Video: The Form Tables ii) Key Indicators There are two Key Indicator outputs. The first puts the trends into context by comparing how each side s performance against other opposition that are the same type as the team they are set to play. The second table on the right hand side shows the trends for both sides against all opposition types over the last 20 games. P a g e 4

5 In the example below, Fulham (Red) are currently classed as a bottom-six side while Man City (Orange) are classed as a top-six side. The left hand Key Indicators refer to Fulham s performance against top-six sides (red) and Man City s performance against bottom-six sides (Orange). You can see that over the last 10 games against bottom-six sides, Man City are ranked 2 nd in the league for scoring the 1 st half while Fulham are ranked 2 nd for conceding in the first half against top-six sides. In summary, there is a very good chance of there being a goal in the first half and Man City taking the early initiative. Bet Idea: 1 st half betting only. Over 1 goals in the first 1.96 Video: The Key Indicators iii) Game Notes The game notes use an algorithm to scan the trends for any relevant betting ideas. This is an excellent shortcut to finding bets for those without enough time to do their own research or for it to be used as a starting point for your ideas. The game note for Fulham vs Man City highlights the over 2.5 goals market as a good potential bet. P a g e 5

6 Bet Idea: Over 2.5 match The bookies give odds of 1.92 on there being over 2.5 goals in the match. For a complete guide to using Form Lab s Game Notes, download our user guide here. iv) Top 3 match indicators The top 3 match indicators are similar to the game notes, but tend to provide some very specific betting ideas. These trends are also scored from 1 to 5+ based on the strength of the trend. Ideally you want to be paying the most attention to trends with a score of 3 or above. The trends highlighted for the Fulham Man City game go beyond typical home/ away type betting and provide bets for Half time only betting or Half time/ Full time double result type predictions. See the getting the best odds video for more details. Video: Using The Game Notes P a g e 6

7 Putting it into practice: Here s example of how the Game Notes can be used in combination with the Key indicators to generate profitable betting ideas. Key Indicators Man City (Red) vs Wigan (orange) 10 th September: There are some very strong trends showing for the match with Man City ranking strongly in the 1 st half performance against teams like Wigan. Wigan on the other hand rank poorly against sides like Man City when it comes to conceding in both halves. The games notes also picked this up, highlighting the Man City/ Man City Half Time/ Full time market as an area of interest: P a g e 7

8 Man City were the runaway favourites to win the game in 90 minutes, but the average odds of 1.18 were not very attractive. However, if as suggested, we turn to the Half Time/ Full time market we could have got odds of 1.70 which is much more attractive. Bet Idea: Man City to win Half Time and Full Result - Win/ Win! Man City lead at Half Time and scored another two unanswered goals in the 2 nd half to make the Half Time/ Full time bet a winner. P a g e 8

9 FORM LAB PRO: PRE MATCH QUERIES Pre-match queries allow you to drill down and find any trends not highlighted in the Match Data tab. Using the pre match query you can pose a question and find out the results in the Query output tab. To make sense of queries, it might help to break them down into four main categories. i) Match type queries: Examine match ups of certain types of teams. E.g. Top six vs Top six in the Premier League - are these games likely to be tight affairs with more games under 2.5 goals? Answer No, they are more likely to be over 2.5 goals. ii) Team queries: Examine any individual team trends. See below for our recommend Pre Match Team Query Routine. iii) Macro queries: Examine any trends for an entire league or country compared to other countries. E.g. Which league has the most goals per game France or German? Answer Germany, 55% of all games have over 2.5 goals and 32% of all games have over 3.5 goals. Compare this to France where just 42% of games over 2.5 goals per game and just 21% of matches have over 3.5 goals. P a g e 9

10 iv) Head to Head: A summary of the results from the matches the last 20 times the two selected teams played each other. E.g. In Scotland, Rangers vs Celtic, Rangers have had the edge, winning 45% of games between the sides, but just 30% when playing away. Video: The Head to Head Filter Video: Using the Period Filter To Find Opportunities Video: Using the Position Filter to Find Opportunities Video: Combining the Position & Pre Match Filter to Find opportunities. Form Lab s Recommend Pre Match team Query Routine. When analysing a match we tend to run the same queries: First: Check the last 10 games for the home and away side. Second: Check the season to date results at home. Third: Check the home results over a longer period against opposition type. (having checked the league table to ascertain that the team really is a top-six side and can t be dislodged by just one result). With those three query reports loaded, we look to see if there are certain characteristics about either team ability to score etc and then use the summary drop down to see what effect scoring in the selected matches, for example, has had on the main markets high percentage of Over Goals etc. You may be surprised how strong the effect can be for certain teams and therefore how false the price might be based on these circumstances. P a g e 10

11 Video: Form Lab s Recommended Pre Match Routine. Example longer term team query: Everton s Pre Christmas blues On Sept 10 th, the pre match game notes for the Everton vs Aston Villa game threw up an Everton win as an interesting betting idea. This is a good example of how queries can be used to double check any shorter term trends against any longer term biases a team might have. There is one trait that Everton have displayed in recent years that may have put you off taking this particular bet, or at least adding some draw cover with a Draw No bet. Seasonality Over the past few seasons, Everton have had a particularly strong seasonal bias to perform better in the 2 nd half of the season. P a g e 11

12 Here are the results from backing Everton between August and December since 2006/07. Everton win just 36% of their games and draw 32% of them. In fact you could have made a decent profit backing the draw during this period. By contrast, the image below shows you Everton s performance From January onwards: The draw ratio remains stable, but they manage to win 48% of their matches post Christmas. Taking this into account, you might have at least backed Everton with a Draw No Bet, which turned out to be prudent with Everton drawing the game 2-2. Macro queries: Here are some bigger picture trends to whet your appetite: Time of the season can cause big shifts in the number of goals. This is particularly true in the Netherlands. After the return from the Winter Break goals historically fall in the Eredivisie while the final few games see a marked increase. In January and February since 2006/07 (326 matches) +2.5 goals = 52% while +3.5 goals = 30%, while in the final two home games of the season (180 games) +2.5 goals = 60% and +3.5 = 43%. While the majority of leagues see some sort of increase in the number of goals being scored at the end of the season, both League One and League Two tend to see a decline in certain match-ups. Since 2006/07, matches between two bottom-half teams have seen +2.5 goals in 52% of games in the first 10 home matches of the season, compared with just 44% in the final three home games. Similarly all-top-half matches have decreased from 52% to 46%. P a g e 12

13 Promoted teams in France tend to weaken over the course of the season. Since 2006/07 promoted teams have won 35% and lost 37% of their opening five home matches in Ligue 1, while in their final five they ve won only 20% and lost 40%. Further, a comparison between the first half of the season and the second half shows promoted teams win rate at home dropping from 36% to 29%. All-middle-third team clashes in Ireland have seen an increase in goals in the second half of the season, and have also seen an increase in the percentage of goals coming after half-time. Since 2006/07 middle-third teams hosting middle-third teams in the first half of the season have had +2.5 goals in 38% of matches compared to 52% in the second half of the year, while the percentage of these matches where the second half has been the highest scoring half has increased from 36% to 47% in the second half of the season. Long home winning streaks in League Two can be tough to maintain and are often more to do with the quality of opposition faced than the quality of the home team. In League Two teams that have won three consecutive home games have won 47% of their next home matches, while teams with streaks of four and five home wins have won 45% and 48% of their next home matches respectively, as a longer streak hasn t meant an increased win rate. Further, there are only 21 cases of streaks of five home wins and of the 10 (48%) subsequent wins eight came in the eight matches that were against teams that finished in the bottom eight; without these the sample would be a less than impressive W2-D6-L5. The information Panel The information panel on the Pre-Match query page also contain some very important information. For example, you can see how consistent a team is by comparing their current league position with that of recent seasons and therefore how reliable their results are likely to be. Also look to see how long the manager has been in charge and therefore by generating the matches pre and post appointment see what effect he may be having not just in terms of results but the manner in which his team performs higher scoring, defensive away etc. Often that sort of detail, especially in lower leagues, will not be priced into the market. P a g e 13

14 On A Streak A team has won its last five home games and the market has reacted accordingly but in certain leagues, especially lower ones, it s very hard to sustain a run or it may be that the team in question has been favoured by the fixture list. Find out what the team s prior performance has been when on such a run or, if the sample is too small, how similar teams have done when in such form. Simply highlight the current streak in the Form panel, select All Teams Home or Away, add a position or opposition type if you wish, and run the query. The run will come to an end sometime and using the software can often help you to find when that is likely to be. P a g e 14

15 FORM LAB MAX: DAILY REPORTS This review has been put together to highlight the most successful areas of the Daily Reports published by the analysts at Football Form Labs. You can use these findings to help optimise your use of the recommendations and the way you use the software to find your own betting opportunities. You can find more strategies and ideas on how to get the best out of Football Form Lab within the Strategies tab. If you have a question about how to use Form Lab or would like to request a strategy to be researched, please do get in touch via support@footballformlabs.com If you are not yet member, you can get started with a 14 day free trial today Strategy Summary: This is a review of results since the start of the 2010/11 season when Football Form Labs started posting recommendations. First Published August 2013 Weekly Long Term Recommendations: These are powered by analysis of form, fixture strength, and historical results of teams in similar position. Since 2010/11 they have consistently been in profit for all winter and summer seasons with a total profit of 48.1 points at a ROI of 27%. From 10 unit stakes that would mean a profit of 481 and it look likely to return similar levels of profit for the summer 2013 season. Long Term Results Season Winter/Summer Staked Pts Recommended Return ROI All All % 2010/11 Winter % 2011 Summer % 2011/12 Winter % 2012 Summer % 2012/13 Winter % P a g e 15

16 Over/Under Goals Recommendations: Across the Big 5 leagues the profit on these recommendations has been 49.8 points since the start of the 2010/11 season at an ROI of 19.6%. These recommendations are based on analysis using the Form Labs software across a range of data, for example how a team has done against bottom-six teams or when in poor form or at certain times of the season. We also make use of all-team stats to see how larger sample sizes compare to individual teams and look at player stats to assess the impact of key missing players. All this is done using the Form Labs software which is available to subscribers on 50 different leagues. Over/Under Goals Results Season Pts Recommended Return ROI All % 2012/ % 2011/ % 2010/ % Premier League % La Liga % Bundesliga % Serie A % Ligue % Overs % Unders % P a g e 16

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18 FORM LAB MAX: TOP TIPS FOR GETTING STARTED How much time will you spend each week looking for bets? Once you understand a league and the strengths and weaknesses of its respective teams, then you should allow about an hour per league each week to work out your bets. Most of that hour would be spent running queries and the rest on finding out if there is any significant news that may persuade you not to execute a certain transaction. If your time is very limited then this software is probably not for you. However if you do have the time and patience, then it will become the profitable betting tool that it has been for us and many other subscribers. Am I interested in just certain leagues? There is certainly an advantage if you know what is going on in a particular league and therefore it s no surprise that the Big Leagues attract the most betting and are the most price efficient. The software can help you to find value in the subsidiary markets or alternatively give you confidence to trade in lower leagues where there is likely to be value. Our most profitable leagues tend to be inefficiently priced, such as the Summer leagues. Will I specialise in certain markets? We see the markets as being either outcome or goals based. If you specialise in one or the other then what you look for will differ. For example, outcome bettors should be looking at how the game may develop, does Team A have a particularly good record against the type of opposition they are about to play? Are they a team that have patches of form good or bad and what effect does that have on their results? Do they win matches in a particular way? Or conversely what effect does it have on their performances if their opponents struggle to keep a clean sheet or rarely fail to score. Those looking at goals based opportunities are looking for match-ups where there are likely to be goals or not from the two teams in question and what effect, for example, there may be on the market if a goal is scored in the first half; or team A scores/concedes. This is using the software to find points of commonality with teams rather than difference. Am I a short term or long term bettor? Long term bettors are classified as those who use the software to find a profitable strategy and then follow it. Then they find out which matches it applies to and run queries to see if the strategy is good for the team or teams in question. We classify short term bettors as those looking for bets on specific matches and therefore use the software to identify those opportunities or, perhaps, to support their own view on a match. P a g e 18

19 Once you have made these decisions, and there is no reason why you can t do it all if you have the time, then your analysis will be more focused. These are just a few suggestions for using the software and very quickly you ll be looking at your own strategies and theories and just as quickly you ll start to see the benefits. As a subscriber you will receive regular guidance via webinars and s. In the meantime, if you have any queries, please feel free to contact us at support@footballformlabs.com P a g e 19