There are 3 sections to the home page shown in the first screenshot below. These are:

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1 Welcome to pacecards! Pacecards is a unique service that places the likely pace in the race and the running style of each horse at the centre of horseracing form analysis. This user guide takes you through the views and tools available with the service and defines what features are available and how to navigate them. Blogs and video tutorials will offer future tips for using pacecards with reference to these features. Please take the time to read through the guide. The site has been designed to be easy to navigate and intuitive to use, but a little background is necessary, specifically with regard to unique pacecard features that are presented for the first time. home page The home page gives you access to every pacecard for every horse race under rules in the UK and Ireland for all daily meetings. There are 3 sections to the home page shown in the first screenshot below. These are: Pacecard filters Daily races grid Daily races list Pacecard filters enable you sort and display the daily races list by meeting, or in the order of the scheduled time of each race (if you want to work through all daily races in order of the off time) by clicking on either meetings or races. Alongside the daily races list, there are a range of powerful filters to display races by race type, race distance and by number of runners - click on the radio buttons for each filter to show only those races in the daily races list or the daily races grid that meet the conditions of the filter(s) you have specified. PACECARDS USER GUIDE 1

2 The daily races grid shows courses and race times scheduled for each course. Point and click on any race time in the daily races grid to gain access to the pacecard for that race. Races shown in darker grey are the result of any filters that have been applied, so that you can quickly identify any race type that is of particular interest to you. The daily races list shows a list of races for each course, depending on your chosen sort method (meeting order by default, but can be by race time) and depending upon any filters you have applied. Note that only races that meet the conditions of any pacecard filters you have applied will be shown in the daily races list. As with the daily races grid you can point and click on any race (ie. row) in the daily races list in order to access the pacecard for that race. Pacecard filters on the home page The screenshot below shows the Pacecard filters available. You can sort all daily pacecards by meetings or races and this applies to the view in the Daily races list - this is the first sort filter in the Pacecard filters. PACECARDS USER GUIDE 2

3 All the radio buttons next to Show only: enable you to filter the races shown in the Daily races grid and the Daily races list. This enables you to sort filters to view race types that interest you. Example showing home page with selection of race filters The full list of filters that are available is as follows: Maiden - select maiden races only Handicap - select handicap races only Chase - select steeple chase races only Hurdle - select hurdle races only Sprint - select races run over distances of 5 furlongs (minimum flat distance) to 6 furlongs only. This filter applies only to Flat racing 7f-9f - select races run over distances of 7 furlongs to 9 furlongs only. This filter applies only to Flat racing Flat 10f+ - select races run over ten furlongs or more under Flat racing 10+ runners - select races with 10 runners or more left declared after any non-runners have been taken out. Filters are exclusive by default, so will select only races where the filter chose applies, with the exception of multiple filters that can apply to a single race at the same time. For example, a race cannot be a chase and a hurdle at the same time, so these filters are exclusive. However, a race can be a handicap, a chase and have more than 10 runners, so three filters can apply to select such races. PACECARDS USER GUIDE 3

4 The following screenshot below demonstrates an example filter selection of all handicap races for sprint races with at least 10 runners - sprint races apply to the Flat only. Play around with the filters to get the hang of them - all the filters should be intuitive to use - and see what happens with the results. pacecard view Once you have selected any of the races from the home page or from the daily races grid, you will enter the pacecard view for the race. Note that once you have accessed a pacecard, you can also display the daily races grid above the pacecard at any time by clicking the double chevron "up" arrow. Any filters that you have selected will still apply until you return to the home screen and deselect them or select new ones. PACECARDS USER GUIDE 4

5 The pacecard view provides everything you need to analyse the race form quickly from a pace perspective, with the key features listed below. Data relating to race time, course, title, race conditions, draw advantage, prize money etc. should all be self-explanatory. This data is displayed in the pacecard header of the pacecard view. Any non-runners that are announced after the first pacecard has been displayed are updated on an hourly basis throughout the day - their names will be displayed next to the Non-runners: line in the pacecard view and the pacecard tables are updated with revised statistics. Details of last year's winner for any race that had a corresponding race run at the same meeting the previous year are shown below the non-runners line. By default, the name of the horse that won and the trainer are shown - this enables you to at a glance check the pacecard table to see if the same horse is running in the race this year or the trainer is fielding any runner(s) in the race this year in an attempt to win the race again. If you want to see more details on the attributes of last year's winner click the more info text. Below the pacecard header in the pacecard view is the pacecard table. The pacecard table lists all runners declared in the race, minus any non-runners declared on the day of racing. Summary pacecard features for each runner in the race are displayed vertically, with each runner in the race corresponding to a row in the pacecard table. The features are listed in the features bar of the pacecard table as follows: Cloth number Name Gender Days since ran Weight Jockey PACECARDS USER GUIDE 5

6 Trainer Runs Leader Lagger Heldup Net lead Stall number Each feature can be sorted from lowest to highest by clicking on feature in the features bar of the pacecards table. Most features are self-explanatory. However, the specific pacecard features for leader, lagger, heldup and net lead merit further detail and are explained in the next step. PACECARDS USER GUIDE 6

7 Course and distance pace stats in the pacecard header Within the Pacecard Header you can find statistics related to the success of different running styles. These statistics start with a summary of the number of previous races and previous runners that have raced over this exact course and distance in the last 12 years. The average field size is also shown for all races. Next to this you can a hyperlink to pace stats for this course and distance. If you click on that you will display the table shown in the screenshot below. This breaks down every winner according to pacecard categories as follows: Leaders - horses that lead or front run - see also the definition for pace features in the pacecard table Close up - horses that race just behind the leader(s) going well - generally attracting comments of "close up" or "tracked leader" Chased leaders - horses that race just behind the leaders but are pushed to keep up Mid-division - horses that are racing off the pace Held up - see also the definition for pace features in the pacecards table - horses that may be racing in mid-division or may even lag the pace at the start of the race, but just after the start are deliberately held up. Generally these horses are going well within themselves and save their efforts for the final stages of the race. Lagger - see also the definition for pace features in the pacecards table - horses that cannot go with the early pace or miss the break at the start of the race. For each running style, the columns in the table show you the following: Num wins - The number of wins attributed to horses that exhibited this type of running style. Avg field size - the average field size for horses that won that exhibited this type of running style %wins to runners - the percentage of horses that won that exhibited this type of running style versus the number of horses that exhibited this type of running style overall. %winning strike rate - the percentage of races at this course and distance that were won by horses exhibiting this type of running style. PACECARDS USER GUIDE 7

8 Example of how to read the pace stats table for course and distance The screenshot shows course and distance stats for the five furlong race at Sandown. If we take the case of Running Style for leaders below, we can interpret the stats (ie. for each stats column for the leaders row in the table) as follows: 1. There have been 36 wins for horses that led in the early stages of the race (ie. that were involved in setting the pace). 2. The average field size across all of the races that were won by leaders was runners. (this can be compared to the average field size of 9.55 runners, showing that front runners do marginally better than average in larger fields than average at this course and distance). 3. The %wins to runners for horses that have been leaders is 19.67% percent. This means that out of all runners in races that have been involved in setting the early pace, 19.67% of those have won (remember that horses that dispute the lead or race with the leader both attract the front runner tag - and in fact, this is what has happened in this race with two horses setting the pace). 4. The %winning strike rate for leaders is 35.29%, which means that of all races that have been won over this distance, over one third have been won by front runners. We can also note that horses who race close up are responsible for another 26.47% of winners, which means that almost 2/3rds of races are won by horses right up with the pace at Sandown over five furlongs. Note: The pacecard table for each race showing pacecard features for each horse - covered below - does not show close up, chased leader or mid-division stats. This is because the relative leader, held up and lagging stats achieved by any horse are most useful for predicting pace (see the explanation for pace features in the pacecards table below) rather than looking at mid-division running styles.. Thus, if we want to predict horses who race close up to the pace, the best way to do it is by looking at the relatively likelihood of leading, So to predict which horse will race close up, no need to analyse a "close up" feature, just look for the horse ranked second or third in predicted leaders for today's race. Likewise, those who race towards the back of the field are generally best predicted by looking at relative lagger and heldup stats rather than focusing on mid-division running styles. PACECARDS USER GUIDE 8

9 Leader, lagger, heldup and net lead pace features in the pacecard table The leader, lagger and heldup pacecard features show the relative frequency each runner in the race has shown in previous races for leading the field, lagging the field or being heldup. Each feature is defined as follows: Leader - a horse that has led or raced as a joint leader from the outset of the race. Typically these horses will race in front for the majority of the race, as a rule of thumb the first 75% of the race - so in a flat race over one mile (8 furlongs) you can expect an habitual front runner over the distance (see the comments in runner view for how to establish a horse's favoured distance) to lead for at least the first 6 furlongs, and for longer if they have a record of success in front running (see runner view). Lagger - a horse that cannot go with the pace or misses the break and is left behind the field from the outset of the race. Typically you can expect these horses will remain at the back of the field for the majority of the race, and start to make a move forward (if they have sufficient stamina - see the comments in runner view to establish whether this is the case) in the latter part of the race. PACECARDS USER GUIDE 9

10 Heldup - a horse that attracts the in running comment of "held up" - in other words, the horse is deliberately held up by the jockey off the pace. Typically these horses look like they are running well within their capabilities and sit off the leaders - they are being saved for the latter stage of the race, typically the last 25% of the race or later - so again, the last 2 furlongs in a race over a mile. Each pace feature - leader, lagger and heldup - takes into account all runs that each horse has had and calculates the proportionate number of times that the horse has led, lagged or been held up in a race. We then compare each individual statistic with every other horse in the race and show which horse has the strongest relative chance of leading, lagging or being held up. This is what is shown in the pacecard view. To summarize, the leader, lagger and heldup figures in the pacecard view show the a relative percentage pace form for leading, lagging or being held up for every horse in the race. This is the figure you can see in the leader, lagger and heldup columns - for example, 1.0 represents 100%, 0.20 is 20% and 0 is 0%. You will see that all the numbers in each column add up to 1 (ie. 100%), or failing that all entries for a pace feature will be n/a (not available value) if no horse in the race has exhibited that pace feature in its previous runs. Note that all pace statistics should be viewed relative to the number of runs that any horse has had, and leader statistics should be viewed relative to lagger statistics. Pacecards provides lots of tools to analyse this, the summary tools are described below. Filter pacecard by number of runs The default pace statistic that is shown is for all runs that a horse has ever had. You can see the number of runs that a horse has had under the runs column in the default pacecards view. When in default mode, each statistics gives a view of the relative lifetime pace characteristics of any horse compared to any other runner in the race. PACECARDS USER GUIDE 10

11 However, this does not give a view of recent pace form, and can also be misleading where one horse has had far more runs than another. Therefore, we also provide the ability to revise the pace statistic in real time over the ten most recent runs of all horses in the race, or over the five most recent runs of all horses in the race, and for a quick view of any recent running style bias, the most recent run (this is the "lto" filter meaning "last time out"). Switching between number of runs is done by clicking any of the 4 coloured filters displayed just to the top right of the pacecard table. If you click on any of these - all, ten, five or lto - you will see that the runs, leader, lagger, heldup and net lead statistics all change accordingly. Runs will now show the maximum number of recent runs available for each filter (ie. if all runners have had 5 runs or more and you select the "Five" filter, you will see 5 runs and corresponding stats for each runner. If any of the runners have had fewer than five runs, then the total number of previous runs less than five will be shown. The relative statistics for each runner will also be skewed. Net lead - note that net lead is a special value that is a simple subtraction of the leader minus lagger statistic. The values in this column do not add up to 100% since the statistic is produced on a per runner basis. However, it is a useful quick guide to how reliable a horse is at front running. Some horses miss the break as often as they lead, so you have to consider lagger statistics alongside leader statistics. Net lead can help you identify the most reliable leader on any pacecard. Sorting values within the pacecards table One of the most useful features of the pacecard table is the ability to sort all features by value (by default lowest to highest numerical value and lowest to highest alphabetical value). You can use the sorting capability to quickly identify horses ranking highest or lowest in any particular category. For example, to get a quick view of which horse in the race has the most reliable history of leading the field relative to the rest of the field, sort by net lead. PACECARDS USER GUIDE 11

12 The screenshot below shows a filtered and sorted pacecard table for the five furlong opening race on the card at Sandown on Wednesday 17th September This filter selection uses the five run filter, and the sort was on net lead, ranking every runner in the race from highest to lowest (achieved by clicking twice on the features bar). runner view The runner view is accessed from any pacecard table by clicking on the row in the table that represents that runners' summary details. The runner view is designed to give you full form history on any single runner in a race from the perspective of pace analysis. The runner view provides everything you need to analyse the race form quickly from a pace perspective, with the key features listed below. Data relating to the current runner details - such as Trainer, Owner, Jockey, Age etc. should all be self-explanatory. This data is displayed in the runner header of the runner view. The last line of the runner header shows summary form figures for previous races, the forecast price from the private oddsline produced at final declaration time and the number of days since the runner's last race. PACECARDS USER GUIDE 12

13 The next part of the runner view is the previous history table for the runner. Every row in the table relates to a previous run, with the columns representing information relating to The previous history table shows a features bar displaying characteristics relating to each race in the runner's previous history as follows: Meeting date - date of the previous run; by default all races in the previous history table are organized from the most recent run to the oldest run Distance in yards - the distance in yards of the race Result - where the horse finished in the previous run - see whether the runner is successful when it conforms to a particular running style. Num.runners - the number of runners in the race. A horse that is held up or front runs in a very small field may not be capable of repeating form in a much larger field, and vice versa. Starting price - the industry starting price of the runner Distance beaten - the number of lengths (measured in whole lengths) by which the runner was beaten. Note that if the distance is 0l (ie. zero lengths), the runner either finished the race first or was beaten by less than a length in the race. If you rank (see below) the features by distance beaten, from lowest to highest, you can get a good feel of the kind of conditions that benefit the horse, and see if there is a common pattern in the running style. Prize money - total prize money available for the race. A horse that is held up or can front run in a higher value race should be capable of repeating form in a lower value grade. Class - Class of the race. A horse that is held up or can front run in a better grade should be capable of repeating form in a lower grade. Going - going on the day of the race - rank by going in order to see how the horse performs on the going of the day. Trainer - the trainer at the time of the race Jockey - the jockey on the day - see how running style varies by jockey, or if the jockey doesn't matter to the horse's preferred running style. Leader - whether or not this race is used by the pacecard as a leader race Lagger - whether or not this race is used by the pacecard as lagger race Heldup - whether or not this race is used by the pacecard as a heldup race In running comments per race - note that you can see the full in running comment for each race (ie. row) in the previous history table by hovering on that row with the cursor. PACECARDS USER GUIDE 13

14 As with any form analysis, summary statistics can be misleading without further research. In particular, if the pacecard table shows that any runner has a certain pace characteristic, or the most dominant pace characteristic in the race, it is important to be able to check how the average relative frequency that creates the pace statistic comes about. Examples of questions you can answer at the runner view include: How do the horse's pace characteristics relate to the same race conditions, going and distance that the horse will face today? Were the horse's leading pace characteristics achieved over completely different conditions? When were the horse's pace characteristics achieved? What was the pace characteristic of the most recent run (often the most recent run is the best indicator of the next run)? Has the trainer or jockey associated with the horse changed since the pace characteristics were achieved? We should be wary of any change in connections if we are relying on a horse to repeat its historic pace characteristics in today's race What are the pace characteristics associated with today's jockey when today's jockey has ridden this horse in the past? Sometimes the same horse can be ridden in different ways depending on the jockey. PACECARDS USER GUIDE 14

15 Sorting values within the previous history table of the runner view One of the most useful features of the previous history table is the ability to sort all features by value (by default lowest to highest numerical value and lowest to highest alphabetical value). You can use the sorting capability to quickly identify runs according to any of the criteria listed in the features listed in the previous section, in relation to the previous history table, to help answer specific questions on pace features relating to this runner - for example, suitability / consistency of the average pace characteristics in the pacecards table over course, distance, going, class of race, and so on. Below we show the runner view for Mr Dandy Man, with the previous history table sorted by leader runs. We can see that Mr Dandy Man has a consistent history of front running, on all types of going, at a range of distances, and that he does not appear to be affected by the course. Mr Dandy Man is therefore a reliable front runner and as we saw earlier is highly rated on the leader and net lead statistics within the pacecard. If you want to see the full in-race comment relating to any individual run, hover over the row representing the run. To clear the runner history click anywhere outside the pop up box for the runner in question. You will return to the pacecard view. NB. In this particular race, Mr Dandy Man contested the lead for the majority of the race with the runner drawn on his inside, which at Sandown is the most favoured stall in stall 1 (as indicated by the draw advantage comment in the Pacecard Header), Only Ten Percent, who eventually won. PACECARDS USER GUIDE 15

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