Population Analysis & Breeding and Transfer Plan

Transcription

1 Population Analysis & Breeding and Transfer Plan Grey-winged Trumpeter (Psophia crepitans) AZA Species Survival Plan Red Program AZA SSP Coordinator and Studbook Keeper Shawn Pedersen, Woodland Park Zoo AZA Population Advisor Colleen Lynch, Population Management Center 29 JULY 2016

2 Executive Summary Grey-winged Trumpeter (Psophia crepitans) Red Program The Gruiformes Taxon Advisory Group has designated grey-winged trumpeters to be a managed population with a target size of 80 specimens (2014 RCP). The population currently qualifies for management as a Red SSP with 28 individuals distributed among 11 AZA institutions. When gene diversity falls below 90% of that in the founding population, it is expected that reproduction will be increasingly compromised by, among other factors, lower hatch weights, smaller clutch sizes, and greater neonatal mortality. Gene diversity is currently 84%; GD is expected to be 0% at 100 years from present as population extinction is expected in less than 40 years. Demography Current size of population (N) - Total (Males, Females, Unknown) # animals excluded from management Population size following exclusions Target population size Mean generation time (yrs) Lambda - 5 year / Life table / used in projections 28 ( ) / / 0.94 Genetics (Genetic statistics calculated from the analytical studbook) Current Potential Founders 7 17 Founder genome equivalents (FGE) Gene diversity (GD%) Population mean kinship (MK) Mean inbreeding (F) 0 Percentage of pedigree known before assumptions and exclusions 72.7 Percentage of pedigree known after assumptions and exclusions 85 Effective population size/census size ratio (Ne / N) 0 Years To 90% Gene Diversity Years to 10% Loss of Gene Diversity 7 Gene Diversity at 100 Years From Present (%) Assuming λ = 0.94, Target size = 80 0 Special Concerns: Breeding success in this population is very low. The population has declined at an average rate of 6% per annum from 2002 to 2012 and by 48% in in Since 2016 some increase in population size has occurred but this growth results from importation, with 7 imports and only 1 hatch occurring. Institutions receiving breeding recommendations are strongly encouraged to prioritize the successful propagation of this species. If current trends are not reversed AZA population extinction is expected in fewer than 40 years. As with SSP populations, pairings recommended for this population are prioritized to maintain or increase gene diversity through considerations of mean kinship, avoidance of inbreeding and differences in sire and dam mean kinships. In the interest of demographic stability some over-represented proven breeders and related pairs will receive breeding recommendations. Every female that can receive a breeding recommendation will be recommended to breed. Summary Actions: The Program recommends 0 transfers and all 12 females to breed. All paired birds should be maintained under conditions conducive to breeding. Pairs should be encouraged to engage in courtship, nesting and incubating behaviors. Low rate of pairing success presents a significant challenge to the maintenance of this population. n/a 1

3 Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 I. Description of Population Status 3 Demography 3 Genetics 5 Management Strategy 6 II. III. Recommendations Summary Recommendations 7 CALDWELL, DALLAS WA, 9 HOUSTON, JACKSONVL, MINNESOTA, NYBRONX, PITTS CA, 10 RIOGRAND, SAN ANTON, SEATTLE, ST LOUIS 11 Appendices A. Assumptions & Exclusions 12 B. Life Table 13 C. Ordered Mean Kinship 15 D. Summary of Data Exports 16 E. Survival Statistics 17 F. Reproductive Report 19 G. Definitions 22 H. Directory of Institutional Representatives 24 STUDBOOK KEEPER Shawn Pedersen Woodland Park Zoo, (206) , Shawn.Pedersen@Zoo.org Report and Analyses prepared by: Colleen Lynch, Consulting Population Biologist, AZA Population Management Center, clynch@riverbanks.org The planning meeting for the grey-winged trumpeter was held via the week of June 19, Cover art: Simon and Schuster s encyclopedia of animals This plan was prepared and distributed with the assistance of the AZA Population Management Center. pmc@lpzoo.org 2

4 Description of Population Status Grey-winged Trumpeter (Psophia crepitans) Red Program Introduction: The Gruiformes Taxon Advisory Group has designated grey-winged trumpeters to be a managed population with a target size of 80 specimens (2014 RCP). The population currently qualifies for management as a Red SSP. Genetic and demographic analyses of the population were performed in June 2016 resulting in the current Breeding and Transfer Plan. Analyses were performed on the analytical (XX) version of the North American Regional Grey-winged Trumpeter Studbook (current to 5/12/2016) using PopLink 2.4, PM , and PMX The goal of these recommendations is to insure the genetic and demographic health of the population. Recommendations proposed in a Red SSP Plan are non-binding; participation is voluntary. Managed Population: The current population is 28 distributed among 11 institutions. This represents an increase from 23 individuals in This increase is the result of importation rather than captive breeding. Special Concerns: Breeding success in this population is very low. Since 2008, every male (the limiting sex in this population) in the population has been recommended to breed with the exception of two males paired with siblings (unrelated females were not available). The population has declined at an average rate of 6% per annum from 2002 to 2012 and by 48% in in (Figure 1). Since 2016 some increase in population size has occurred but this growth results from importation, with 7 imports and only 1 hatch occurring in 2014 and no hatches since that time (Figure 2). Given current parameters, population extinction is expected in less than 30 years in the absence of continued importation (Figure 3). Figure 1. Hatches in the population continue to decline while death rates remain consistent and imports maintain the population. Over the last 15 years the population has been import-dependent with deaths exceeding births and imports combined by an average of 1.5 animals per annum. As with SSP populations, pairings recommended for this population are prioritized to maintain or increase gene diversity through considerations of mean kinship, avoidance of inbreeding and differences in sire and dam mean kinships. In the interest of demographic stability some over-represented proven breeders continue to receive breeding recommendation and some sibling pairs will receive breeding recommendations. As in 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014, every animal that can receive a breeding recommendation (given sex-ratio biases) will be recommended to breed. Demography: The grey-winged trumpeters were first exhibited in North America in 1905 but were held only sporadically until 1980; it was not until the mid 1980s that captive hatches occurred in any significant numbers Figure 2). The population s failure to maintain consistent hatch rates over the past two decades is of great concern. It is unknown at this time whether the failure of this population to maintain its size is due to an inability to propagate the species or simply due to the species not being the focus of propagation efforts. Institutions receiving breeding recommendations are asked to make serious attempts to achieve successful reproduction; it is hoped that such efforts will result in consistent growth rates and the population will reverse its decline and begin to move toward the recommended target size and the large number of requests for additional specimens can be filled. 3

5 Figure 2. Population census illustrates a fairly constant rate of wild importation and a declining captive born population. Figure 3. Population projections predict that without further imports and/or increases in captive breeding, extinction will occur. Figure 4. Age structure in the population by sex and by breeding success. Only one living bird is a proven breeder. SB423 last produced a chick in The dam of this chick died in

6 Demographic data for this population is lacking as a result of small population size combined with a short history of breeding in captivity. Captive trumpeter populations in general lack data regarding life span, reproductive span, and vital rates. Model data sets for similar species are also unavailable or limited. Lifespan may be greater than 30 years. The oldest living grey-winged trumpeter is currently 17 years old but historic records include animals as old as 30 years. Chick mortality is moderate with less than 34% of chicks failing to survive their first year. The age distribution (Figure 3) deviates from a stable one with several empty age classes and a disproportionate number of individuals in the middle age classes relative to younger ones. This distribution illustrates a decrease in population growth rates as importations have slowed, attrition of the aging wild caught specimens has increased, and captive propagation has not increased at a compensatory rate. The sex ratio is male biased (17.11). Reproduction has been recorded in known-aged animals from the ages of 1 to 15 years in males and 1 to 10 years in females; some animals of unknown age may have bred at older ages. Some reproduction in the earliest age classes may be an artifact of data entry conventions assuming wild caught birds to be one year of age at time of capture. Genetics: The population is descended from 7 founders, with 17 potential founders remaining in the living population (Figure 4); 7 of these potential founders are over the age of 16 years. Since 2012, four founder lines have been lost to attrition. GENETICS calculated using the analytical studbook 2016 Potential Number of Founders Founder Genome Equivalents Gene Diversity (%) Population Mean Kinship Mean Inbreeding (F) % Known Pedigree before assumptions/exclusions % Known Pedigree after assumptions/exclusions N e/n Years To 90% Gene Diversity n/a n/a n/a n/a Years To 10% Gene Diversity loss Gene Diversity at 100 Years From Present (%) Gene diversity (GD) in the population (84%) is low relative to the average SSP (93%); potential gene diversity is very high at 97%. Long-term projections indicate that given current population parameters GD will decrease rapidly as the population declines. GD is projected to be 0% in 100 years as population extinction is anticipated in less than 30 years without continued importation and improved captive propagation. Figure 4 Founder representation in the population illustrating the large number of potential founders... 5

7 The best strategy to increase gene diversity retention in grey-winged trumpeters is increasing the population effective size by recruiting a larger proportion of the population as breeders. Currently Ne/N in this population is 0.00, much lower than values close to 0.3 typically seen in monogamous breeders. Increasing the proportion of breeders in the population to 0.2 and creating moderate population growth (lambda = 1.01), even in the absence of further potential founder recruitment, increases projected GD at 100 years to 25%. Given population performance in the last decade, however, these projections are unlikely to become a reality without significant improvements in husbandry and reproduction combined with an influx of new breeding aged animals into the population. Management Strategy: Projections indicate that five hatches are required in the coming year to maintain the current population size. Parent rearing is considered to be an important factor in the future breeding success of grey-winged trumpeters. Double-clutching is encouraged in cases where multiple clutches can be obtained without excluding parent rearing. In the event that hand-rearing is necessitated, ghost, isolation, or puppet rearing is recommended. Recommended pairings include some over-represented individuals and related pairs in the interest of demographic stability. The only animals not recommended to breed are females for which males are unavailable due to the sex ratio bias. 1. Recommend all 12 females to breed in the coming year. Double clutches should be attempted where possible without sacrificing parent rearing. 2. Recommend 0 transfers to create breeding pairs. 3. Recommend that all paired birds be maintained under conditions conducive to breeding. Pairs should be encouraged to engage in courtship, nesting and incubating behaviors. Low rates of pairing success present a significant challenge to the maintenance of this population. Institutions housing birds in flocks are encouraged to report behavioral pairings when possible. 6

8 Summary of Breeding and Transfer Recommendations ID Location Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes 383 CALDWELL F 16 HOLD CALDWELL BREED CALDWELL M 10 HOLD CALDWELL BREED DALLAS WA 9A077 F 9 HOLD DALLAS WA BREED 470 Appears to be malimprinted 469 DALLAS WA 13A059 F 4 HOLD DALLAS WA BREED DALLAS WA 13A054 M 3 HOLD DALLAS WA BREED DALLAS WA 13A055 M 3 HOLD DALLAS WA BREED DALLAS WA 13A056 M 3 HOLD DALLAS WA BREED DALLAS WA 13A057 M 3 HOLD DALLAS WA BREED DALLAS WA 13A061 F 3 HOLD DALLAS WA BREED DALLAS WA F HOLD DALLAS WA BREED 473 This animal was reported after analysis and is not included in pop n stats 430 HOUSTON M 10 HOLD HOUSTON BREED HOUSTON F 0 HOLD HOUSTON BREED HOUSTON M 0 HOLD HOUSTON BREED HOUSTON F 0 HOLD HOUSTON BREED JACKSONVL M 12 HOLD JACKSONVL BREED JACKSONVL F 12 HOLD JACKSONVL BREED MINNESOTA M 2 HOLD MINNESOTA BREED MINNESOTA F 2 HOLD MINNESOTA BREED NY BRONX B12192 M 11 HOLD NY BRONX DO NOT BREED 466 NY BRONX B14118 M 2 HOLD NY BRONX DO NOT BREED 370 PITTS CA 5113 F 0 HOLD PITTS CA BREED PITTS CA 7930 M 7 HOLD PITTS CA BREED RIO GRAND B10039 F 9 HOLD RIO GRAND BREED RIO GRAND B14015 M 6 HOLD RIO GRAND BREED 432 7

9 ID Location Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes 434 SAN ANTON U15001 M 8 HOLD SAN ANTON DO NOT BREED 346 SEATTLE M 0 HOLD SEATTLE DO NOT BREED 371 SEATTLE M 17 HOLD SEATTLE DO NOT BREED 467 ST LOUIS M 0 HOLD ST LOUIS BREED ST LOUIS F 0 HOLD ST LOUIS BREED 467 8

10 Recommendations by Institution CALDWELL Caldwell Zoo Tyler, TX ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes F 16 HOLD CALDWELL BREED M 10 HOLD CALDWELL BREED 383 DALLAS WA Dallas World Aquarium Dallas, TX ID Local Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes ID 447 9A077 F 9 HOLD DALLAS BREED 470 Appears to be mal-imprinted WA A059 F 4 HOLD DALLAS BREED 472 WA A054 M 3 HOLD DALLAS BREED 447 WA A055 M 3 HOLD DALLAS BREED 475 WA A056 M 3 HOLD DALLAS BREED 469 WA A057 M 3 HOLD DALLAS BREED 502 WA A061 F 3 HOLD DALLAS BREED 471 WA 502 F HOLD DALLAS WA BREED 473 This animal was reported after analysis and is not included in pop n stats 9

11 HOUSTON Houston Zoo, Inc. Houston, TX ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes M 10 HOLD HOUSTON BREED F 0 HOLD HOUSTON BREED M 0 HOLD HOUSTON BREED F 0 HOLD HOUSTON BREED 430 JACKSONVL Jacksonville Zoo and Gardens Jacksonville, FL ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes M 12 HOLD JACKSONVL BREED F 12 HOLD JACKSONVL BREED 405 MINNESOTA Minnesota Zoological Garden Apple Valley, MN ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes M 2 HOLD MINNESOTA BREED F 2 HOLD MINNESOTA BREED 500 NY BRONX Bronx Zoo/Wildlife Conservation Society Bronx, NY ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes 423 B12192 M 11 HOLD NY BRONX DO NOT BREED 466 B14118 M 2 HOLD NY BRONX DO NOT BREED PITTS CA National Aviary in Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, PA ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes F 0 HOLD PITTS CA BREED M 7 HOLD PITTS CA BREED

12 RIO GRAND Albuquerque Biological Park Albuquerque, NM ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes 432 B10039 F 9 HOLD RIO GRAND BREED B14015 M 6 HOLD RIO GRAND BREED 432 SAN ANTON San Antonio Zoological Gardens & Aquarium San Antonio, TX ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes 434 U15001 M 8 HOLD SAN ANTON DO NOT BREED SEATTLE Woodland Park Zoo Seattle, WA ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes M 0 HOLD SEATTLE DO NOT BREED M 17 HOLD SEATTLE DO NOT BREED ST LOUIS Saint Louis Zoological Park St. Louis, MO ID Local ID Sex Age Disposition Location Breeding With Notes M 0 HOLD ST LOUIS BREED F 0 HOLD ST LOUIS BREED

13 Appendix A Assumptions & Exclusions SPECIMENS UNKNOWN PARENTAGE Studboo k ID Current Status Sire Dam XX SIRE XX DAM Birth Date First Location Second Location Current Location # AZA Living Descen dants % AZA Living Population 61 Dead UNK UNK WILD WILD 1/1/1983 GUYANAZOO CHASE B FORTWORTH % Dead UNK /16/1988 SANDIEGOZ SEATTLE SEATTLE % 7 # Total Living Descen dants 144 Living UNK UNK /1/1987 UNKNOWN CHISHOLM SEDGWICK % Living UNK UNK /12/1988 UNKNOWN CHISHOLM BROWNSVIL % Living UNK UNK /25/1988 UNKNOWN CHISHOLM TORONTO % Living UNK /31/1989 SANDIEGOZ PROVIDNCE MILWAUKEE % Living UNK UNK WILD WILD 10/13/1993 UNKNOWN CYPRESS BUSCH TAM % Living UNK UNK WILD WILD 1/1/2000 UNKNOWN MOHILEF D LOSANGELE % Living UNK UNK WILD WILD 1/1/2000 UNKNOWN MOHILEF D LOSANGELE % Living UNK UNK WILD WILD 3/8/2001 UNKNOWN FALLBROOK RIO GRAND % Living UNK UNK /1/2001 UNKNOWN QUEBEC TORONTO % Living UNK /2/1987 SANDIEGOZ CHISHOLM WINNIPEG 0 0% Living Descen dants' Studbo ok ID 351, 413, 430, 411, 412, 408, , 413, 430, 411, 412, 408, 414 No birds were excluded from the breeding population. 12

14 Appendix B Life Tables Males Qx = mortality; Px = survival; Lx = cumulative survivorship; Mx = fecundity; Risk = sample size Age Qx Px lx Mx Risk (Qx) Risk (Mx) r = lambda = T = 9.09 N = 17 N(at 20 yrs) =

15 Females Qx = mortality; Px = survival; Lx = cumulative survivorship; Mx = fecundity; Risk = sample size Age Qx Px lx Mx Risk (Qx) Risk (Mx) r = lambda = T = 6.9 N = 11 N(at 20 yrs) =

16 Appendix C Ordered Mean Kinships Note: This list is based on a studbook current to the date of analysis. Values are subject to change with any hatch, death, import, export, inclusion, or exclusion. Unknown sex individuals appear on both the male and female side of the mean kinship list. The population mean is indicated by the solid line. Males Females SB# MK %Known Age Location SB# MK %Known Age Location SEATTLE PITTS CA ST LOUIS CALDWELL DALLAS WA DALLAS WA DALLAS WA ST LOUIS DALLAS WA DALLAS WA DALLAS WA DALLAS WA HOUSTON HOUSTON MINNESOTA HOUSTON HOUSTON MINNESOTA PITTS CA JACKSONVL RIO GRAND RIO GRAND SEATTLE NY BRONX JACKSONVL CALDWELL SAN ANTON NY BRONX 15

17 Appendix D Summary of Data Exports Population Management 2000 Project: GWTr16xx Report compiled under Population Management 2000, version :00:17 PM, 6/19/2016 Date to be used for calculations: 6/19/2016 Demographic data from: C:\Users\clynch\Documents\PopLink\PopLink Databases\GWTr16\mXXGWTr16.prn and C:\Users\clynch\Documents\PopLink\PopLink Databases\GWTr16\fXXGWTr16.prn Genetic data from: C:\Users\clynch\Documents\PopLink\PopLink Databases\GWTr16\XXGWTr16.ped Studbook information: Data exported on: 6/19/2016 Data compiled by: Shawn Pedersen Contact info: Shawn Pedersen shawn.pedersen@zoo.org Data current thru: 5/12/2016 Scope of data: Demographic filter conditions: Association = AZA.FED During 1/1/1990-6/19/2016 Status = Living Genetic filter conditions: Association = AZA.FED As of 6/19/2016 Status = Living PMx Project: GWTr16xx Created: by PMx version File: C:\PMxProjects\GWTr16xx.pmxproj Primary data file Data File Name: XXGWTr16.ped Common Name: Grey-winged Trumpeter Scientific Name: Psophia crepitans Data Source: PopLink Studbook Name: GWTr16 Exported On: Software version: PopLink 2.4 Current through: Compiled by: Shawn Pedersen Scope: Dates: Locations: Association: AZA.FED Other Filters: Status = Living User: c Locations data file Data File Name: location.txt Demographic input files MPrn file: mxxgwtr16.prn FPrn file: fxxgwtr16.prn Census1 file: Exchcens.txt Male LifeTable filter: *Common Name: Grey-winged Trumpeter *Scientific Name: Psophia crepitans *Data Source: PopLink *Studbook Name: GWTr16 *Exported On: *Software version: PopLink 2.4 *Current through: *Compiled by: Shawn Pedersen *Scope: *Dates: to *Locations: *Association: AZA.FED *Other Filters: Status = Living *User: c Female LifeTable filter: *Common Name: Grey-winged Trumpeter *Scientific Name: Psophia crepitans *Data Source: PopLink *Studbook Name: GWTr16 *Exported On: *Software version: PopLink 2.4 *Current through: *Compiled by: Shawn Pedersen *Scope: *Dates: to *Locations: *Association: AZA.FED *Other Filters: Status = Living *User: c 16

18 Appendix E Survival Statistics REPORT OVERVIEW: Grey-winged Trumpeter Studbook Psophia crepitans Studbook data current as of 5/12/2016 Compiled by Shawn Pedersen shawn.pedersen@zoo.org PopLink Studbook filename: GWTr16 + Overlay14 PopLink User Who Exported Report: c Date of Export: 6/19/2016 Data Filtered by: Association = AZA.FED AND StartDate = 1/1/1990 AND EndDate = 6/19/2016 PopLink Version: 2.4 Based on this analysis, if a Grey-winged Trumpeter survives to its first birthday, its median life expectancy is 5.0 years. Please see the body of the report for more details. BACKGROUND ON ANALYSES: These analyses were conducted using animals that lived during the period 1 January 1990 to 19 June 2016 at institutions within AZA. The analyses mainly focus on survival statistics from 1 year (e.g. excluding any individuals that did not survive past their first birthday). These statistics most accurately reflect typical survival for animals which can be seen on exhibit in zoos and aquariums. This report summarizes survival records of individuals housed at zoological facilities for a specific geographic range and time period; these records trace an individual's history from birth or entry into the population to death, exit out of the population, or the end of the time period. As such, this history only reflects standard practices - including management, husbandry, and acquisition/disposition practices - for the specified time period and geographic range. Thus, the report contents should be viewed with some caution as they may not fully reflect current and newly emerging zoo and aquarium management techniques or practices. For example, if the population has not been maintained in zoos and aquariums long enough to have many adults living into old age, median life expectancy will likely be an underestimate until more data accrue in older age classes. Thus, users of these reports should recognize that the results produced will likely vary over time or depending on the subset of data selected. Although for many species, including humans, survival statistics often differ for males and females, for these analyses male and female statistics were not statistically different 1 ; these results therefore include pooled data from males, females, and unknown sex individuals. SUMMARY OF ANALYSES: The dataset used for analysis includes partial or full lifespans of 182 individuals, 144 (79.1%) of which had died by 19 June If a Grey-winged Trumpeter survives to its first birthday, its median life expectancy 2 is 5.0 years of age. Given the quality of the data - how many animals are in the database and how many have died - there is a 95% chance that the true median falls between 4.2 and 6.9 years of age (i.e., these are the 95% confidence limits). Only 25% of Grey-winged Trumpeter can be expected to survive to be 10.8 years or older. First-year (infant) survival 3 for Grey-winged Trumpeter is 66%. The year after birth/hatching is a period of relatively low survival for many species and life histories. The maximum longevity 4 observed for Grey-winged Trumpeter is 27.1 years; this longevity record is based on an individual which was DEAD as of the analysis end date (studbook number 34, sex = Male, origin = Wild Hatch, birth date estimate = Year). 5 17

19 The correct interpretation of these statistics is that, if it survives the first year of life, the 'typical' Grey-winged Trumpeter will live 5.0 years; that half of all Grey-winged Trumpeter can be expected to die before they reach 5.0 and half will live longer than 5.0; that only 25% of all Grey-winged Trumpeter can be expected to live 10.8 years; and that it is rare but possible for Grey-winged Trumpeter to live 27.1 years. The median life expectancy, confidence interval, first-year survival, and maximum longevity may change as more data are accumulated, the population's age structure changes, or management practices improve. While both median life expectancy and maximum longevity are discussed in this report, it is more appropriate to rely on median life expectancy to place the age of any one individual in context. To put these statistics in perspective, median life expectancy from age one for people in the United States is 77.5 years and the maximum longevity (documented worldwide) is 122 years 6. Therefore, if a person lived to be 85 years old, the appropriate context is that they lived well beyond the median life expectancy (77.5), not that they fell short of the maximum longevity (122). DATA QUALITY The PopLink Survival Tool uses five data quality measures to determine whether data are robust enough to make reliable estimates of key survival parameters. This population passed all of the following data quality tests: 1. Can the median life expectancy be calculated? PASS 2. Is the sample size (number of individuals at risk) greater than 20 individuals at the median? PASS 3. Is the 95% Confidence Interval (CI) bounded? PASS 4. Is the sample size in the first age class of analysis (e.g. the first day of analysis) greater than 30 individuals? PASS 5. Is the length of the 95% CI < 33% of the maximum longevity? PASS PopLink data validation has never been run; if errors are present in this studbook, they may affect the data in this analysis. 1 Statistical significance was determined by comparing 84% confidence intervals around median life expectancy for males and females, with 7 unknown sex individuals proportionally incorporated into the analysis. For this population, overlapping confidence intervals indicated that data could be pooled. See the PopLink manual for more details. 2 The statistics analyzed for this report (median life expectancy, 95% confidence limits, and age to which 25% of individuals survive) exclude any individuals who did not survive to their first birthday; these individuals are excluded because this Report is focused on providing median survival estimates for the typical individual that survives the vulnerable infant stage. In other words, this report answers the question, 'how long is this species expected to live once it has reached its first birthday?' For this studbook, 53 individuals died before their first birthday and were excluded from these analyses. For all animals that survive to their first birthday, 50% will die before the median life expectancy in this report and 50% die after. Note that the median life expectancy obtained from population management software (PM2000, PMx, ZooRisk) or from life tables in Breeding and Transfer Plans (e.g. where Lx = 0.5) will be lower because it includes these individuals that did not survive to their first birthday in order to project the correct number of births needed. See the PopLink manual for more details. 3 For reference, first-year survival is provided. For this studbook and the selected demographic window, 53 individuals did not survive to their first birthday and were excluded from the estimates provided above (median life expectancy, 95% confidence limits, and age to which 25% of individuals survive). 4 Maximum longevity is the age of the oldest known individual for this species, living or dead. It is not necessarily the biological maximum age, but only reflects the individuals included in the dataset. 5 Censored individuals are individuals whose deaths have not been observed as of the end of the analysis window, including individuals who 1) are still alive as of the end date, 2) exited the geographic window before the end date (through transfer or release), or 3) were lost-to-follow up before the end date. 6 Median life expectancy for people is estimated from: Xu, Jiaquan, Kochanek KD, Murphy SL, and Tejada-Vera B Deaths: Final Data for National vital statistics reports; vol 58 no 19. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. Jeanne Calment of France was the oldest documented and fully validated human and died at 122 years and 164 days; from: Accessed August 9,

20 Appendix F Reproductive Report Grey-winged Trumpeter Studbook Psophia crepitans Studbook data current as of 5/12/2016 Compiled by Shawn Pedersen shawn.pedersen@zoo.org PopLink Studbook filename: GWTr16 + Overlay14 PopLink User Who Exported Report: c Date of Export: 6/19/2016 PopLink Version: 2.4 Species Type: Egg Laying Incubation Period: 28 Days Maximum Hatch Date Range For Clutch Mates: 8 Days DAM INFORMATION 18 reported dams, with (286) offspring (not including 76 offspring of UNK/MULT dams) Median size: 2 Mean size: Clutch Size Frequency Percentage Total Hatch Seasonality First of clutch must have a hatch date estimate of None, Day, or Month to be counted. Month Number of Clutches Percentage January February March April May June July August September October November December Total Dam Age at First Reproduction Median age: Mean age:

21 10 Youngest Dams at First Reproduction: Studbook ID Age At Hatch Dam's Hatch Date Estimate First Offspring's ID First Offspring's Hatch Date First Offspring's Estimate /1/1994 Month 353 1/3/1998 None /1/1983 Year 116 8/8/1986 None /1/1982 Year 112 4/25/1986 None /1/1981 Year 94 5/13/1985 None /1/1994 Year 364 6/14/1998 None /9/2009 None 466 7/6/2014 None /1/2001 Month 433 1/26/2008 None /25/1997 None 408 5/10/2004 None /21/1987 None 340 6/22/1996 None /1/1983 Year 283 8/16/1992 None 10 Oldest Dams at First Reproduction: Studbook ID Age At Hatch Dam's Hatch Date Estimate First Offspring's ID First Offspring's Hatch Date First Offspring's Estimate /1/1983 Year 283 8/16/1992 None /21/1987 None 340 6/22/1996 None /25/1997 None 408 5/10/2004 None /1/2001 Month 433 1/26/2008 None /9/2009 None 466 7/6/2014 None /1/1994 Year 364 6/14/1998 None /1/1981 Year 94 5/13/1985 None /1/1982 Year 112 4/25/1986 None /1/1983 Year 116 8/8/1986 None /1/1994 Month 353 1/3/1998 None Dam Age for All Reproduction Median age: Mean age: Oldest Dams to Have Reproduced Studbook ID Age At Hatch Dam's Hatch Date Estimate Offspring's ID Offspring's Hatch Date Offspring's Estimate /21/1987 None 351 8/25/1997 None /1/1982 Year 255 8/24/1991 None /1/1983 Year 283 8/16/1992 None /1/1982 Year 242 3/24/1991 None /25/1997 None 430 8/3/2006 None /1/2001 Month 446 5/5/2010 None /21/1987 None 340 6/22/1996 None /1/1982 Year /5/1990 None /1/1982 Year 240 9/12/1990 None /1/1981 Year 219 8/22/1989 None 20

22 SIRE INFORMATION 17 reported sires, with (231) offspring (All ages are at dam conception) Sire Age at First Reproduction Median age: Mean age: Youngest Sires at First Reproduction: Studbook ID Age At Estimated Conception Sire's Hatch Date Estimate First Offspring's ID First Offspring's Hatch Date /3/1991 None 284 8/19/1992 None /16/1988 None 240 9/12/1990 None /1/1994 Month 353 1/3/1998 None /1/1983 Year 116 8/8/1986 None /1/1994 Year 364 6/14/1998 None /1/1983 Year 130 7/6/1987 None /5/1986 None 249 7/13/1991 None /1/1981 Year /2/1987 None /28/2005 None 466 7/6/2014 None /1/1981 Year 238 9/6/1990 None 10 Oldest Sires at First Reproduction: Studbook ID Age At Estimated Conception Sire's Hatch Date Estimate First Offspring's ID First Offspring's Hatch Date /1/1996 Month 433 1/26/2008 None /1/1981 Year 238 9/6/1990 None /28/2005 None 466 7/6/2014 None /1/1981 Year /2/1987 None /5/1986 None 249 7/13/1991 None /1/1983 Year 130 7/6/1987 None /1/1994 Year 364 6/14/1998 None /1/1983 Year 116 8/8/1986 None /1/1994 Month 353 1/3/1998 None /16/1988 None 240 9/12/1990 None First Offspring's Estimate First Offspring's Estimate Sire Age for All Reproduction Median age: Mean age: Oldest Sires to Have Reproduced Studbook ID Age At Estimated Conception Sire's Hatch Date Estimate Offspring's ID Offspring's Hatch Date Offspring's Estimate /1/1981 Year 339 5/12/1996 None /1/1981 Year 335 8/7/1995 None /1/1996 Month 446 5/5/2010 None /1/1981 Year 320 6/26/1994 None /1/1981 Year 319 6/8/1994 None /1/1981 Year 318 5/1/1994 None /1/1981 Year 317 4/16/1994 None /1/1996 Month 443 4/15/2009 None /1/1996 Month 442 3/31/2009 None /1/1996 Month 441 3/9/2009 None 21

23 Appendix G Definitions Management Terms Green Species Survival Plan (Green SSP) Program A Green SSP Program has a population size of 50 or more animals and is projected to retain 90% gene diversity for a minimum of 100 years or 10 generations. Green SSP Programs are subject to AZA s Full Participation and Non Member Participation Policies. Yellow Species Survival Plan (Yellow SSP) Program A Yellow SSP Program has a population size of 50 or more animals but cannot retain 90% gene diversity for 100 years or 10 generations. Yellow SSP participation by AZA institutions is voluntary. Red Species Survival Plan (Red SSP) Program A Red SSP has a population size of greater than 20 but fewer than 50 animals, at least three AZA member institutions, and a published studbook. Animal Programs that manage species designated as Extinct in the Wild, Critically Endangered, or Endangered (IUCN) do not need to meet minimum population size and number of participating institution criteria to be designated as an SSP Program. Red Program participation by AZA institutions is voluntary. Full Participation AZA policy stating that all AZA accredited institutions and certified related facilities having a Green SSP animal in their collection are required to participate in the collaborative SSP planning process (e.g., provide relevant animal data to the AZA Studbook Keeper, assign an Institutional Representative who will communicate institutional wants and needs to the SSP Coordinator and comment on the draft plan during the 30-day review period, and abide by the recommendations agreed upon in the final plan). For more information on AZA policies, see Demographic Terms Age Distribution A two-way classification showing the numbers or percentages of individuals in various age and sex classes. Ex, Life Expectancy Average years of further life for an animal in age class x. Lambda ( ) or Population Growth Rate The proportional change in population size from one year to the next. Lambda can be based on life-table calculations (the expected lambda) or from observed changes in population size from year to year. A lambda of 1.11 means an 11% per year increase; lambda of.97 means a 3% decline in size per year. lx, Age-Specific Survivorship The probability that a new individual (e.g., age 0) is alive at the beginning of age x. Alternatively, the proportion of individuals which survive from birth to the beginning of a specific age class. Mx, Fecundity The average number of same-sexed young born to animals in that age class. Because SPARKS is typically using relatively small sample sizes, SPARKS calculates Mx as 1/2 the average number of young born to animals in that age class. This provides a somewhat less "noisy" estimate of Mx, though it does not allow for unusual sex ratios. The fecundity rates provide information on the age of first, last, and maximum reproduction. Px, Age-Specific Survival The probability that an individual of age x survives one-time period; is conditional on an individual being alive at the beginning of the time period. Alternatively, the proportion of individuals which survive from the beginning of one age class to the next. Qx, Mortality Probability that an individual of age x dies during time period. Qx = 1-Px Risk (Qx or Mx) The number of individuals that have lived during an age class. The number at risk is used to calculate Mx and Qx by dividing the number of births and deaths that occurred during an age class by the number of animals at risk of dying and reproducing during that age class. The proportion of individuals that die during an age class. It is calculated from the number of animals that die during an age class divided by the number of animals that were alive at the beginning of the age class (i.e.-"at risk"). Vx, Reproductive Value The expected number of offspring produced this year and in future years by an animal of age x. 22

24 Genetic Terms Allele Retention The probability that a gene present in a founder individual exists in the living, descendant population. Current Gene Diversity (GD) -- The proportional gene diversity (as a proportion of the source population) is the probability that two alleles from the same locus sampled at random from the population will not be identical by descent. Gene diversity is calculated from allele frequencies, and is the heterozygosity expected in progeny produced by random mating, and if the population were in Hardy- Weinberg equilibrium. Effective Population Size (Inbreeding Ne) -- The size of a randomly mating population of constant size with equal sex ratio and a Poisson distribution of family sizes that would (a) result in the same mean rate of inbreeding as that observed in the population, or (b) would result in the same rate of random change in gene frequencies (genetic drift) as observed in the population. These two definitions are identical only if the population is demographically stable (because the rate of inbreeding depends on the distribution of alleles in the parental generation, whereas the rate of gene frequency drift is measured in the current generation). FOKE, First Order Kin Equivalents The number of first-order kin (siblings or offspring) that would contain the number of copies of an individual s alleles (identical by descent) as are present in the captive-born population. Thus an offspring or sib contributes 1 to FOKE; each grand-offspring contributes 1/2 to FOKE; each cousin contributes 1/4 to FOKE. FOKE = 4*N*MK, in which N is the number of living animals in the captive population. Founder An individual obtained from a source population (often the wild) that has no known relationship to any individuals in the derived population (except for its own descendants). Founder Contribution -- Number of copies of a founder's genome that are present in the living descendants. Each offspring contributes 0.5, each grand-offspring contributes 0.25, etc. Founder Genome Equivalents (FGE) The number wild-caught individuals (founders) that would produce the same amount of gene diversity as does the population under study. The gene diversity of a population is 1-1 / (2 * FGE). Founder Genome Surviving The sum of allelic retentions of the individual founders (i.e., the product of the mean allelic retention and the number of founders). Founder Representation -- Proportion of the genes in the living, descendant population that are derived from that founder. I.e., proportional Founder Contribution. GU, Genome Uniqueness Probability that an allele sampled at random from an individual is not present, identical by descent, in any other living individual in the population. GU-all is the genome uniqueness relative to the entire population. GU-Desc is the genome uniqueness relative to the living non-founder, descendants. Inbreeding Coefficient (F) -- Probability that the two alleles at a genetic locus are identical by descent from an ancestor common to both parents. The mean inbreeding coefficient of a population will be the proportional decrease in observed heterozygosity relative to the expected heterozygosity of the founder population. Kinship Value (KV) The weighted mean kinship of an animal, with the weights being the reproductive values of each of the kin. The mean kinship value of a population predicts the loss of gene diversity expected in the subsequent generation if all animals were to mate randomly and all were to produce the numbers of offspring expected for animals of their age. Mean Generation Time (T) The average time elapsing from reproduction in one generation to the time the next generation reproduces. Also, the average age at which a female (or male) produces offspring. It is not the age of first reproduction. Males and females often have different generation times. Mean Kinship (MK) The mean kinship coefficient between an animal and all animals (including itself) in the living, captive-born population. The mean kinship of a population is equal to the proportional loss of gene diversity of the descendant (captive-born) population relative to the founders and is also the mean inbreeding coefficient of progeny produced by random mating. Mean kinship is also the reciprocal of two times the founder genome equivalents: MK = 1 / (2 * FGE). MK = 1 - GD. Percent Known Percent of an animal's genome that is traceable to known Founders. Thus, if an animal has an UNK sire, the % Known = 50. If it has an UNK grandparent, % Known = 75. Prob Lost Probability that a random allele from the individual will be lost from the population in the next generation, because neither this individual nor any of its relatives pass on the allele to an offspring. Assumes that each individual will produce a number of future offspring equal to its reproductive value, Vx. 23

25 Appendix H Directory of Institutional Representatives Contact Name (IR) Institution CALDWELL - Caldwell Zoo, Tyler, TX Yvonne Stainback ystainback@caldwellzoo.org Carolina Arruda DALLAS WA - Dallas World Aquarium, Dallas, TX carolina@dwazoo.com HONOLULU - Honolulu Zoo, Honolulu, HI Kelly Reno kelly.reno@honolulu.gov HOUSTON - Houston Zoo, Inc., Houston, TX Hannah Bailey hbailey@houstonzoo.org Mike Taylor JACKSONVL - Jacksonville Zoo and Gardens, Jacksonville, FL taylorm@jacksonvillezoo.org Jamie Ries MINNESOTA - Minnesota Zoological Garden, Apple Valley, MN Jamie.Ries@state.mn.us David Oehler NY BRONX - Bronx Zoo/Wildlife Conservation Society, Bronx, NY doehler@wcs.org Kurt Hundgen PITTS CA - National Aviary in Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA kurt.hundgen@aviary.org Karen Waterfall RIO GRAND - Albuquerque Biological Park, Albuquerque, NM kwaterfall@cabq.gov Josef San Miguel SAN ANTON - San Antonio Zoological Gardens & Aqua, San Antonio, TX curbirds@sazoo.org Shawn Pedersen SEATTLE - Woodland Park Zoological Gardens, Seattle, WA shawn.pedersen@zoo.org Mike Macek ST LOUIS - Saint Louis Zoological Park, St. Louis, MO Macek@stlzoo.org 24