1873 Delta: Long residence time. Marsh connections. Two rivers connect to bay. Waterways dendritic

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4 1873 Delta: Long residence time Marsh connections Two rivers connect to bay Waterways dendritic 4

5 Modern delta Short residence times Rip-rapped Cross Delta flows Rare San Joaquin connection to bay Waterways web-like 5

6 Estuarine habitat conceptual model (Peterson 2003) Stationary Habitat Tidal and River Flow Production Area Dynamic Habitat Fish Recruitment 6

7 Freshwater Flow (m 3 s -1 ) O N D J F M A M J J A S Wet Years W D (1997) 0 Dry Years Day of Water Year 7

8 Cumulative Percent Am. shad Delta smelt Thr. shad YF goby Starry flounder Longfin smelt Most fishes follow salinities Splittail Striped bass Chinook salmon Staghorn sculpin Shiner perch Marine species Salinity Kimmerer

9 What Changes As Flow Increases? Salinity and X2 FLOW Location of Any Salinity Range stratification L S Z 9

10 What Physically Changes As Flow Increases? Upstream bottom current Floodplain inundation River stage and velocity FLOW River Stage, Velocity Delta Residence Time Proportion Diverted FLOW 10

11 What chemically changes? Loadings FLOW Nutrients Contaminants Organic matter Sediment Concentrations FLOW 11

12 What Biologically Changes As Flow Increases? Adult spawners move up: Salmon Green and White Sturgeon Longfin smelt Delta smelt Splittail American shad Pacific herring Young fish move down: Salmon Longfin smelt Delta smelt Splittail American shad Striped bass Young Marine fish move up: Starry flounder White croaker Pacific halibut 12

13 How much water do fish need? 13

14 X2

15 X22 X12 X2 X32

16 X12 X2 X22 X32

17 X2=75 X2=45 X2=65 X2=0

18 Log Abundance or Survival Higher trophic levels show many relationships of abundance to X Bay Shrimp Flounder Herring Am. Shad Delta smelt Longfin smelt Source: Kimmerer 2002MEPS (DS) All Years High Flow Splittail Striped Bass X2 X 2 (km) (km) Low Flow

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20 Log Abundance Lower trophic levels show few relationships of abundance to X Chlorophyll: Spring Chlorophyll: Summer Copepod: Summer Copepod: Spring Rotifer: Summer Mysid X2 X (km) Source: Kimmerer 2002 MEPS High Flow 20 Low Flow

21 Log Abundance or Survival Fish- X 2 Relationships From Kimmerer Bay Shrimp Herring Flounder Am. Shad Delta smelt Longfin smelt (DS) All Years Splittail Striped Bass X 2 (km)

22 Wha Happened?

23 POD--- Pelagic Organism Decline

24 Delta smelt Longfin smelt Threadfin shad Striped bass

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27 TOP-DOWN PARENTS Prior Fish Abundance LOSS FISH ABUNDANCE PHYSICAL & CHEMICAL FISH HABITAT HOME FOOD BOTTOM-UP

28 Prior Abundance PRESENT ABUNDANCE

29 Juvenile Production Stock - Recruitment Effects POD Years Threadfin shad Delta smelt Fall Midwater Trawl (Adults)

30 ln TNS Juvenile (TNS) Have Delta Smelt Dropped Below Critical Population Levels? R 2 = Alee effect? Adults ln FMWT (previous (FMWT) year) Source: Anke Mueller-Solger (DWR)

31 FISH ABUNDANCE PHYSICAL & CHEMICAL FISH HABITAT

32 FISH ABUNDANCE PHYSICAL & CHEMICAL FISH HABITAT Temperature Turbidity Salinity Nutrients Contaminants Disease Toxic algae

33 Fall EQ index Source: Feyrer et al. (CJFAS 2007) Fall habitat quality deteriorated 0.7 Striped bass Delta smelt Year

34 Contaminants and Disease? Bioassays showed little effect (<5 %) in 2005 or <15% adult delta smelt impaired 100 % of young striped bass show multiple infections Source: Inge Werner, Swee Teh, and Dave Ostrach (UCD)

35 Total Monthly Ammonia-N Load (metric tons/month) Ammonia? Monthly Ammonia Loads in the Sacramento River at Hood and in Effluent from the Sacramento Regional WWTP Sacramento River at Hood/Greenes Landing SRWTP Effluent Date Sources: A. Mueller-Solger, DWR; A. Jassby, in press SFEWS

36 Widespread blooms of the toxic alga Microcystis in 2007 August Levels: 1.3 million cells/ml Microcystis grows well on ammonia! (Diatoms don t) Core Habitat of Delta Smelt Source: Peggy Lehman (DWR)

37 TOP-DOWN Water Diversions Predation FISH ABUNDANCE

38 Water Project Losses Fish Facilities Provide Data on Numbers Salvaged

39 1,500 1, ,000 10, , ,000 5,000,000 2,500,000 0 Winter Salvage (Nov-Mar) Longfin smelt Delta smelt Striped Bass Threadfin Shad

40 Exports in acre-feet 1 acre-foot =325,851 gallons =1233 kiloliters SWP CVP

41 Old OMR and = Middle Old and Rivers Middle as River an flows Integrator of Hydrodynamic Effects Old River Middle River

42 Delta Smelt SWP & CVP Salvage (log count) mean combined salvage (log count) Negative Old & Middle River Flows Apparently Increase Adult Delta Smelt Entrainment r 2 = 0.31, p<0.05 y = -4E-05x R 2 = Old and Middle River Flows (cfs) Combined Old & Middle River Flow (cfs) Mean Values for December-March Source: Lenny Grimaldo

43 FISH ABUNDANCE Food availability Food quality BOTTOM-UP

44 Delta Smelt Survival Index Food Affects Summer Smelt Survival But Recent Levels Were Not Remarkable Zooplankton Biomass, mgc m (Jul-Oct) 89 Source: Wim Kimmerer

45 Copepod Biomass (mg C m -3 ) No Major Change in Zooplankton Biomass, But Big Change In Species Harpacticoids Other Cyclopoids Other Calanoids Limnoithona sp. Tortanus sp. Acartiella sinensis Pseudodiaptomus forbesi Sinocalanus doerri Eurytemora affinis Source: Anke Mueller-Solger (DWR); IEP (2007)

46 Alternative Stable States Little Low Highly variable Low Lots Cool High Ammonia Contaminants Flow Harvest Phosphorus Temperature Turbidity Lots High Low and Constant High Limited Warm Low Diatoms Pelagic fish Natives thrive Resists invasions Clams Jellyfish Edge & benthic fish Microcystis Aquatic Weeds

47 What Now?

48 Palmer Drought Severity Index Drought Effects on Delta Smelt Application of a Conceptual Model Time Series: Griffin & Anchukaitis, 2014 Geophysical Research Letters, 41: 1-7. Thanks to Louise Conrad, DWR

49 Central Valley Runoff MAF

50 Index Value Drought compared to Previous Decade Drought compared to Drought 14 Sacramento Valley Water Year Index Critical Dry Below Normal Above Normal Wet

51 Delta Smelt MAST Report: Completed January Landscape 2 Environmental Drivers 3 Habitat Attributes 4 - Responses 5 - Seasons

52 Tier 1 - Landscape Attributes Erodible Sediment Supply, Proximity to Ocean, Proximity to Discharges, Proximity to Diversions, Bathymetry (Proximity to and Extent of Shallow Areas) Tier 2 - Environmental Drivers Air Temperature, Flows, Turbidity, Contaminant Loading, Water Diversions Tier 3 - Habitat Attributes Food, Predation, Temperature, Entrainment, Toxicity Tier 4 - Delta Smelt Responses Adults Survival Growth Subadults Food, Predation, Size and Location of LSZ, Toxicity Tier 5 - Life Stage Seasons December-May (Winter) September-December (Fall) Survival Weather, Outflow, Turbidity, Clam Grazing, Nutrients, Contaminants Growth Weather, Exports, Hydrology, Turbidity, Contaminants Food, Predation, Temperature, Transport, Entrainment, Toxicity Spawning March-June (Spring) June-September (Summer) Eggs & Larvae Survival Juveniles Food, Predation, Temperature Harmful Algal Blooms, Toxicity Weather, Hydrology, Turbidity, Clam Grazing, Nutrients, Contaminants

53 Seasonally Clearer Water Jan - Mar Apr - Jun July - Aug Sept - Dec Results Water Clarity July August, Summer Townet Survey, 1-6ppt 53 cm 42 cm CDFW Summer Townet Survey

54 April June MSS CPUE +/- SE Sharp Increase in Mississippi Silverside Abundance Results Mississippi Silverside Jan - Mar Apr - Jun July - Aug Sept - Dec Data Source: USFWS Beach Seine

55 November 2014: Boat Electrofishing Drought Survey Western and northern Delta November 2001 (5) November 2003 (8) November 2004 (6) November 2014 (12) 1:145, Miles Slide courtesy of Denise Barnard, FWS

56 Mean black bass CPUE (fish / meter of shoreline) Mean black bass CPUE Black bass densities increased in 2014 Results Black Bass Jan - Mar Apr - Jun July - Aug Sept - Dec November N 0.15 W 0.1 W W N 0.05 N N W Slide courtesy of Denise Barnard, FWS

57 Black bass / kilometer of shoreline More Black Bass in Larger Size Classes >300mm mm mm FL mm FL 0 N W N W Slide courtesy of Denise Barnard, FWS 2003 Year N W 2004 N W 2014

58 Water Temperatures Warmer All Year Long Jan - Mar Apr - Jun Jul - Aug Sept - Dec Results Water Temp September October only, Fall Midwater Trawl, 1-6 ppt 21 C 19 C

59 % Stations Microcystis Present Microcystis More Prevalent Results Harmful Algae Bloom Jan - Mar Apr - Jun Jul - Aug Sept - Dec 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Summer Townet Survey: 1-6 ppt Fall Midwater Trawl: 1-6 ppt

60 Abundance Indices at Historic Lows Winter SKT Spring Summer mm TNS Fall 2014 Index = 9 Lowest on Record

61 Warmer Air Temperatures During Drought Jan - Mar Apr - Jun July - Aug Sept - Dec Results Air Temperature April June 18.3 C 16.7 C Air temperature station data pooled from: Lodi, Mossdale Bridge, Mallard, Rio Vista

62 Growth Rate (mm/day) June Mean Water Temp Summer Growth Reduced Year 17 Slide courtesy of Jim Hobbs, UC Davis

63 What Next?

64 Water Hyacinth, San Joaquin Connection Slough; December Photo: Roger Kelly for Bay Nature Magazine South American Sponge Plant@ Brannon Island 2011 Lars Anderson Loach: San Joaquin River near Fresno, Fall 2014.

65 Today?

66 Earthquake or flood 64% chance in 50 years

67 1 M sea level rise (2100?)

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