Wednesday, December 30, 2015 Bilas Index: This year is different still good, just different

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1 ESPN.com: Men's College Basketball images] [Print without Wednesday, December 30, 2015 Bilas Index: This year is different still good, just different By Jay Bilas ESPN Senior Writer Welcome to Volume III of The Bilas Index for the season, and the final missive of the year This year has been a wonderful year for college basketball, and it is sad to see it go. But, 2016 has the chance to be just as good, though in a different way. The Bilastrator does not root for any team and plays no favorites. But, The Bilastrator does have one hope and resolution for the New Year: for everyone to be healthy. Already, we have lost significant time to injuries for some of the nation's best and most indispensable players, such as Michigan State's Denzel Valentine, Duke's Amile Jefferson, Texas' Cameron Ridley, Arizona's Kaleb Tarczewski, UConn's Amida Brimah, Gonzaga's Przemek Karnowski, Iowa State's Naz Long, North Carolina's Kennedy Meeks, Oklahoma State's Phil Forte, Oregon's Dylan Ennis, Rhode Island's Hassan Martin, Stanford's Reid Travis and Vanderbilt's Luke Kornet. This year, because of the makeup of the field, if you are good and you are healthy, you have a legitimate chance to do some damage in the postseason. As you should know by now, The Bilas Index is the most reliable accounting of basketball accomplishment and ability in the known world. Thanks to the accuracy and precision of The Bilastrator's gray matter, you are privy to this encyclopedia of basketball knowledge and you get a glimpse into the future. The Bilastrator not only tells you which teams are good right now, but which teams will be there at the end. In short, The Bilas Index is the truth, and The Bilastrator tells you the truth. Yet, some in the college basketball world do not like the truth, but prefer the darkness to the light. For example, many got their undies in a bunch over The Bilastrator's recitation of the truth... that there are no teams at the top as good and as powerful as the teams at the top last season. That is an undeniable truth told to you first and most forcefully by The Bilastrator. It is not a slap at anyone, but a simple fact, and it indicates that this will be a different season, but could be more fun in the end. Clearly, while this freshman class has LSU's Ben Simmons, this season's freshmen are not quite to the same level as last season's freshmen. That's OK, but it is different, and pointing it out is a good thing. And, while some will cry whenever a foul is called, the enforcement of the rules, the shot clock and the extended charge circle have worked very well, and have allowed those with skill and athleticism to use it without being mugged in an organized fashion. If the officials continue to call the game this way, conference play and the NCAA tournament will be epic. So, enjoy the most accurate, reliable and trustworthy view of the landscape of college basketball, The Bilas Index. As always, you're welcome. 1. Kansas Jayhawks 1/13

2 Kansas is shooting 46.3 percent from 3-point range, second in the nation and the highest percentage since Bill Self became the Jayhawks' coach in Kansas has terrific guards, and Wayne Selden is playing as well as he has in his Jayhawks career. 2. North Carolina Tar Heels The Bilastrator still believes the Heels are the best team in the country, and that the Heels are getting better. Brice Johnson is an elite big man with a ridiculous shooting touch. Johnson has averaged 22.5 points, 11 rebounds and has shot over 75 percent from the field past four games. 3. Oklahoma Sooners The Sooners are win-the-whole-thing good, and have a star in Buddy Hield. The Sooners are shooting 46.2 percent from 3-point range, second in the Big 12 and second in the nation. Only Kansas has shot the ball better. 4. Michigan State Spartans What to do with the Spartans? With Denzel Valentine out, Michigan State is not as good of a team. But when he is back, the Spartans may be better. When Mateen Cleaves was out for an extended period in 2000, The Bilastrator told everyone that Michigan State was still the best team and would cut the nets down. Michigan State is a great passing team, averaging more than 22 assists per game, unselfish on both ends of the floor, and will be a Final Four favorite. But with Valentine out, Sparty gets an adjustment. When he is back, there will be another. Michigan State is No. 2 in ESPN's BPI. 5. Maryland Terrapins Maryland hits more than 61 percent of its 2-point field goals, second-best in the nation. Melo Trimble continues to make a case for the nation's best point guard, although The Bilastrator still gives that label to Providence's Kris Dunn. 6. Xavier Musketeers The Musketeers are the No. 1 team in ESPN's BPI, which is the best measure outside of The Bilas Index. Xavier's defense continues to be underrated, and the Musketeers rebound like an angry motorcycle gang. Keep an eye on Edmond Sumner. He is a stud that gets to the free throw line whenever he likes. 2/13

3 7. Virginia Cavaliers The Wahoos were a bit sluggish against Cal, but Tony Bennett ran two magnificent plays at the end of regulation and overtime to win it. The Virginia coaching staff is concerned about the quality of its defense, although Virginia is rated in the top 20 in defensive efficiency by KenPom.com. Virginia has the slowest pace in the country with 62 possessions per game, but it is a beautiful way to play. So much for the shot clock making everybody the same. 8. Kentucky Wildcats The Wildcats beat a good Louisville team in Rupp Arena without Skal Labissiere, who is still trying to figure things out, and without Isaiah Briscoe, who injured himself in warmups. Kentucky is working on just playing hard and competing. When this team gets it together, it will be competitive for a spot in the Final Four. 9. Villanova Wildcats Villanova got beat at Virginia, but showed the ability to play with anyone. The Wildcats are passing better and shooting better as a result. They have got to put the ball on the floor more, but this team shoots better than its overall numbers suggest. Villanova has attempted far more 3-point shots than any other Big East team, but is dead last in percentage. That will change going forward. 10. SMU Mustangs The Mustangs have not missed a beat under interim coach Tim Jankovich or returning head coach Larry Brown. (Brown sat the first nine games with an NCAA-imposed suspension.) SMU rebounds more than 44 percent of its missed shots, the third-best offensive rebounding percentage in the nation. The Ponies are one of the best perimeter shooting teams in the country, hitting more than 44 percent from 3-point range. SMU shot 10-for-15 from deep against Tulsa, with Shake Milton hitting 7-of-8 from 3-point range for 24 points. 11. Purdue Boilermakers The Boilermakers have crazy size and, heading into the Wisconsin game to open the Big Ten season (a game Purdue won 61-55), were limiting opponents to 31.7 percent shooting in half-court possessions, best in the nation. But Purdue has to generate more points, being limited to just 24 in the first half against Wisconsin. 12. Iowa State Cyclones 3/13

4 The Cyclones had a semi-miracle comeback against Iowa, although those that have been to Hilton Coliseum before have seen losses turn into wins there. Iowa State does not get to the free throw line, and does not get second shots, but the Cyclones do not turn it over and consistently get good shots. 13. Louisville Cardinals Since Virginia's tumble in defensive numbers, the Cardinals are the only team rated in the top five-in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Louisville has lost to both top 25 opponents (Michigan State and Kentucky) both on the road. Offensive rebounding continues to be a huge plus, with Louisville grabbing almost half of its own misses. Damion Lee, the transfer from Drexel, has proven to be a big-time player. 14. Butler Bulldogs Butler still averages better than 89 points per game, the second-most productive offense in the nation. Clearly, Butler was not worried about the shot clock. Butler is No. 15 in ESPN's BPI, and is third in the nation in turnover percentage, coughing up the ball on only 13 percent of its possessions. 15. Arizona Wildcats Even without the injured Kaleb Tarczewski, the Cats allow only 6.3 second chance points, fewest among major conference teams. Sean Miller's team plays solid defense by guarding the 3-point line and limiting opponents to one, challenged shot. Don't be surprised when Arizona wins the Pac-12 again. 16. Duke Blue Devils Mike Krzyzewski keeps referring to his team as "limited" due to injury and lack of prepared depth. The Blue Devils still hung 70 on Elon in the first half, and Brandon Ingram has shown that he is an elite talent over the past five games. His early struggles were just that -- early. Ingram is the real deal. Still, without Amile Jefferson, Duke is thin up front and will have to go small more often. Like Michigan State, when Jefferson is back healthy, Duke will rise back up in The Bilas Index. 17. Texas A&M Aggies The Aggies have beaten Bilas Index teams Gonzaga, Texas and Baylor, and are 4-0 against teams ranked in the top 50 of ESPN's BPI, tied with Michigan State. But the Aggies need to get better with the ball (Texas A&M has a turnover percentage of 19.4, ranked in the bottom third of Division I) and better on the glass. 4/13

5 18. Baylor Bears Baylor averages over 43 points in the paint, the best among major conference teams. Baylor had 23 assists on 26 field goals in a win over Texas Southern. 19. Miami Hurricanes The Hurricanes continue to lead the ACC in 3-point percentage, and Ivan Cruz Uceda and Sheldon McClellan are third and fourth in the league at 53 percent and 51 percent from deep. Miami and Virginia are the only ACC teams shooting more than 40 percent from deep. 20. Oregon Ducks The Ducks have wins over Baylor, Valparaiso and Alabama, but are rated this high in The Bilas Index because of what they are and what they can be. The one thing Oregon needs to improve upon is defensive rebounding; it gives up way too many second shots. 21. Providence Friars Kris Dunn has been out of the lineup at times, but Dunn is the best point guard in the nation. Dunn and Michigan State's Denzel Valentine are the only players in the nation to average at least 15 points, six rebounds and seven assists per game. 22. Iowa Hawkeyes The Hawkeyes, who took down No. 1 Michigan State on Tuesday, take good care of the ball and are solid on the offensive end. The next step will be in getting to the free throw line more efficiently. 23. West Virginia Mountaineers The Mountaineers are not hard to figure out. They will come at you with tremendous pressure and try to turn your mistakes into scoring chances. West Virginia leads the nation in turnover percentage, forcing a miscue on more than 30 percent of opponents' possessions and scoring 29 points off of those turnovers. In a half-court game, West Virginia cannot beat anybody. In a full-court game, West Virginia is tough to deal with. Coach Bob Huggins wonders whether his team has the grit of last season's team. He'll find out in Big 12 play. That will be a brutal test. 5/13

6 24. UCLA Bruins The Bruins were beaten up by Brice Johnson and North Carolina, but this team continues to improve. The ceiling may be around this level, but that is also good enough to play in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Watch Thomas Welsh shoot the ball. Welsh and Johnson are the best big-man shooters in the country from 6-16 feet. Both have amazing shooting touches. 25. South Carolina Gamecocks The Gamecocks are 11-0, with one of the better defenses in the SEC. Frank Martin's team is tougher and does a good job on the offensive glass, corralling 39 percent of its misses. South Carolina has not played a tough schedule, but has not played the dregs of Division I, either. 26. Gonzaga Bulldogs From here on out, the Bulldogs play only three teams that will be favored -- SMU, BYU and St. Mary's. And all on the road. The key for Gonzaga will be the return of Przemek Karnowski and limiting turnovers. On the turnover front, it is a mindset. Gonzaga's guards have to value the ball much better. The Bilastrator is still a believer, but getting healthy is job No Connecticut Huskies The loss of Amida Brimah makes UConn vulnerable at the rim, but Daniel Hamilton continues to be among the elite playmakers in the game. The sophomore from Los Angeles is averaging 16 points, almost nine rebounds and almost six assists. That is Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine territory. 28. Vanderbilt Commodores Luke Kornet is out with an injury, which hurts the Commodores. But Vandy has lost four of six heading into the Western Michigan game on Wednesday, dropping games against Kansas, Dayton, Baylor and Purdue. Simply put, Vanderbilt has to get tougher, especially talented big man Damian Jones. 29. Pittsburgh Panthers The Panthers have not played a great schedule, but pounded Davidson in Madison Square Garden. With versatile forwards Michael Young and Jamel Artis, Pittsburgh assists on more than 68 percent of its field goals. 6/13

7 30. Indiana Hoosiers The Hoosiers have won five straight since the beating at Duke and the resulting hand-wringing among the basketball cognoscenti. Yet, Indiana continues to get better. The big issues are turnovers (271st in the country) and defensive rebounding (269th in the country). You cannot defend a run out, and you cannot defend a second shot. Indiana is far better than most people believe, and there is room for improvement. 31. Texas Longhorns Isaiah Taylor had his best game of the season against Stanford with 26 points and six assists, and was in control the entire game. The loss of Cameron Ridley with a broken foot is devastating, as he controlled the paint, was a target inside and was excellent on the glass. Texas will have to go smaller, but will continue to play hard. 32. Utah Utes Utah beat a shorthanded Duke in New York, and showed some toughness in winning that game in overtime. Jakob Poeltl is proving to be among the elite big men in the country, and he has great hands. Poeltl is averaging 18 points and 10 rebounds per game. 33. Florida State Seminoles The Seminoles picked up a win at Florida behind a 24-point performance by freshman phenom Dwayne Bacon. Florida State now has wins over the Gators and VCU, with losses to only Iowa and a capable Hofstra team. Florida State still struggles to make open 3s, and to guard the 3-point line. 34. Notre Dame Fighting Irish The Irish are not a great defensive team, but Mike Brey's team can still score. The Irish are among the top five teams in the nation in offensive efficiency, per KenPom.com. 35. Cincinnati Bearcats The Bearcats have led the nation in playing hard under Mick Cronin. This season's Cincinnati team is better offensively but not as attentive to defense as past Bearcat teams. Cincinnati is rate 59th in adjusted defensive efficiency by KenPom.com, the first time Cincinnati has been outside of the top 25 in that category since All of Cincinnati's losses have come to top-20 teams, until the home loss to Temple on Tuesday night. 7/13

8 36. Dayton Flyers The Flyers win because of toughness and grit. Dayton does not take great care of the ball and does not shoot free throws well, but the Flyers will always be in games. 37. Florida Gators The Gators are good defensively, but not great on the offensive end. Freshman KeVaughn Allen, averaging only seven points per game, put up 32 points against Florida State. Keep an eye on sophomore big man John Egbunu, who is continuing to get better. 38. Wichita State Shockers We still have not seen the real Wichita State yet, primarily due to injury. With Fred VanVleet back, normalcy should steadily return. But Wichita State is no lock to win the MVC. Northern Iowa and Evansville are no joke. 39. Colorado Buffaloes The Buffaloes have only two losses, close ones to SMU and Iowa State. Colorado can shoot the ball, hitting more than 40 percent of its 3-point attempts, among the top 20 in the nation. 40. Michigan Wolverines The Wolverines can really shoot it from multiple positions and are good with the ball. They can spread you, cut hard, and are hard to guard. However, Michigan is not big inside and struggles with the elite level teams. Michigan is good, but needs to get tougher, both physically and mentally. 41. Marquette Golden Eagles The analytics do not suggest Marquette should be rated this high. But the Golden Eagles have quality big men in Henry Ellenson and Luke Fischer, and have reeled off nine wins in a row, with losses only to Belmont and Iowa. 42. Georgia Bulldogs The Bulldogs have terrific guards in Charles Mann, Kenny Gaines and lefty J.J. Frazier. But the difference has been the improved play of big man Yante Maten, averaging almost 16 points and more 8/13

9 than seven rebounds per game. Georgia has wins over Clemson, Georgia Tech and Oakland. 43. Syracuse Orange The Orange are playing without Jim Boeheim, and it has been a struggle. The absence of their coach is a part of it, but the bigger part of it is youth and lack of frontcourt depth and size. The Syracuse zone is just not as tough on the baseline. But if Syracuse continues to force turnovers and hits perimeter shots, this is a tough team to play against. 44. California Golden Bears The Baby Bears grew up quite a bit in the overtime loss at Virginia. This is not a great shooting team, but following up the loss to Virginia with a drubbing of a good Davidson team was a real positive. 45. Northwestern Wildcats The Bilastrator gets it. Northwestern has not really played a Murderer's Row of opponents, but good is good, and Northwestern is good. The Wildcats are 12-1 headed into Big Ten play, and Bryant McIntosh is coming off of a 33-point performance against Loyola. Games against Nebraska, Maryland and Ohio State will go a long way to convincing people, including the Wildcats, that Northwestern truly belongs. 46. Richmond Spiders The Spiders are not an elite defensive team, but are really hard to guard. One of the top 25 offensive teams in the country, Richmond has beaten Cal, Wake Forest, Northern Iowa and Old Dominion. But the Spiders took a beating at Texas Tech. 47. Wake Forest Demon Deacons The Deacons are finally getting healthy, and have been battling to put together a full 40 minutes. Wake Forest had Xavier in position to get a win at home, but let the game get away. A win over LSU in Baton Rouge on Tuesday was another positive step forward. Wake Forest gets to the free throw line, gets on the offensive glass and has a great scorer in Devin Thomas, but needs to take better care of the ball. 48. Arizona State Sun Devils The Sun Devils have beaten UNLV, Texas A&M, Creighton and N.C. State. This is a good offensive rebounding team, but Arizona State struggles to consistently hit from deep. 9/13

10 49. George Washington Colonials The Colonials have beaten Virginia and Seton Hall, with losses to Cincinnati and a 21-point headscratcher to DePaul. George Washington does not have any glaring deficiencies, but is also not great in any one area of the game. This is a good, solid basketball team. 50. Seton Hall Pirates The Pirates are 10-2 with losses only to Long Beach State and George Washington. Seton Hall has beaten Ole Miss, Georgia and Wichita State, but need to cut down on turnovers to win in the brutally tough Big East. 51. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets The Yellow Jackets are 9-3 with losses only to ETSU, Villanova and Georgia. But upcoming games against North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia and Notre Dame, with only Virginia at home, could result in some bloody noses to start ACC play. 52. Valparaiso Crusaders The Crusaders are good defensively and make it difficult for opponents to score, but consistent offensive production is not a strength. Alex Peters, a 6-foot-9 forward, is an excellent 3-point shooter, hitting on 45 percent. 53. USC Trojans The Trojans have been banged up some, and have won six straight since losing to Monmouth. A road trip to Washington State and Washington, followed by a homestand with Arizona State and Arizona, is an important start to the Pac-12 season. 54. UNLV Runnin' Rebels The Rebels have beaten Indiana and Oregon, but have lost to UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona and Wichita State. UNLV can defend, but scoring is inconsistent and turnovers are troublesome. UNLV does not play a KenPom.com top 100 team until late January. The Rebels should pile up some wins. 55. Oregon State Beavers 10/13

11 The Beavers are 9-2 with losses only to Valparaiso and Kansas. Home games against Oregon, Cal and Stanford can get Oregon State off to a great start in Pac-12 play. 56. Akron Zips The Zips are 9-2 with losses only to Villanova and Green Bay, both on the road. 57. Saint Mary's Gaels The Gaels will not impress in an airport, but are 11-1 with the only loss coming at Cal. Saint Mary's is leading the nation in effective field goal percentage, 3-point shooting. Saint Mary's is shooting more than 47 percent from deep. 58. BYU Cougars The Cougars lost a thriller against Harvard, but bounced back against New Mexico and Northern Iowa. Kyle Collinsworth continues to impress and pile up triple-doubles. His rebounding and passing are impressive. 59. Kansas State Wildcats The Wildcats are a very solid defensive team and do a very good job of defending the 3-point line. The struggle comes in shooting the ball. Kansas State ranks among the bottom of Division I teams in 3-point shooting. Wesley Iwundu and Justin Edwards are the primary scorers, and have shown great versatility. Kansas State has beaten Georgia, while dropping games to North Carolina and Texas A&M, both away from Manhattan. 60. Texas Tech Red Raiders Tubby Smith is doing a magnificent job in Lubbock. The Red Raiders have been talent poor, but have won 10 games against only one loss by defending very well. Texas Tech has yet to play a true road game, but the early returns are promising for the future. 61. Evansville Purple Aces The Purple Aces have won 11 of 13 games behind the great play of D.J. Balentine, a multi-skilled scorer that shoots more than 56 percent on 2-point shots and more than 40 percent on 3-point field goals. Evansville has to win the MVC title to get to the NCAA tournament, but this team is capable of it. This is an excellent passing and cutting team that runs beautiful motion offense. 11/13

12 62. Northern Iowa Panthers With wins over North Carolina and Iowa State, Northern Iowa is staying in The Bilas Index. However, the Panthers have dropped games to Richmond, New Mexico, Hawaii and BYU over the past month. 63. Memphis Tigers The Tigers are among a bunch of teams that are good defensively but struggle to score. Memphis is a top- 25 team on the defensive end, but not even a top-100 team on the offensive end. But Memphis gets to the foul line, which increases efficiency. 64. Monmouth Hawks King Rice has grown tired of hearing how good his team is, and wants his players to concentrate upon what is ahead rather than resting on what has been accomplished. Monmouth has beaten UCLA, USC, Notre Dame and Georgetown, but Monmouth has also lost to USC, Dayton, Canisius and Army. That is not quite good enough for an at-large bid, and Monmouth will have to win the MAAC Tournament. And Rice knows it. 65. Ohio State Buckeyes The Buckeyes have a solid defense, but turn the ball over like crazy. Ohio State is 280th in the nation in ball security. The win over Kentucky showed what Ohio State can be when the Buckeyes play with passion and emotion. 66. Davidson Wildcats The Wildcats are good, but not as good as they will be by the end of the season. Remember, the losses are to North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Cal, but each loss was by at least 25 points. 67. LSU Tigers The Bilastrator is struggling to see LSU as a Bilas Index team, because there is real potential there, but not the production needed. LSU has been poor on the defensive end, and that has to change. Ben Simmons continues to be spectacular, but there are not wins to go with his spectacular talent. Time is running out, and the competition is going to get tougher. 12/13

13 68. Oakland Golden Grizzlies If you haven't seen Oakland's Kahlil "Kay" Felder play, do yourself a favor and watch him. The 5-foot-9 lefty from Detroit is averaging more than 26 points, second in the nation, and 9.3 assists per game, which leads the nation. Felder was outstanding against Michigan State and goes up against Virginia next. He is a great player. 13/13