研究论文. (Trichiurus japonicus) FAO, , t, , 19(6): Journal of Fishery Sciences of China DOI: /SP.J

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1 2012 9, 19(6): Journal of Fishery Sciences of China 研究论文 DOI: /SP.J 王跃中 1,2, 孙典荣 1, 林昭进 1, 王雪辉 1, 贾晓平 1.,, ; 2., 摘要 : ,, Fox, (P<0.01) (P <0.02), (P <0.05), ; ;, (P <0.01),, : ; ; ; ; 中图分类号 : S937.3 文献标志码 : A 文章编号 : (2012) (Trichiurus japonicus),,, [1] 20 60, ; 60,, 20 80, ; 90,, t, [2 3], 50,, [4],, [5] FAO,,,, [6] Chang [7], 1976 收稿日期 : ; 修订日期 : 基金项目 : ( ) (2010YD01). 作者简介 : (1966 ),,,,. 通信作者 :,. wuhu30@sohu.com

2 , ; 1988,, Qiu [8] 1984,,,,,,, [4] ,,,,,,, 1 1.1, [2 3], CPUE CPUE 1.2,, Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) V4 1 1,, Climate Explorer ( 2 2 COADS(Comprehensive Ocean-Atmospheric Data Set), ( E, N) ( E, N) ( E, N), Climate Explorer, 6 8, 10 3,, [9 10], Z-score, K-S (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) 0.05,, ,,, Fox SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) [11],

3 6 : , 0~5,,, [8] , , t; , ; ; 1993,,, t, SPSS Fox,, Fox 0.85, P<0.01, 2.2 Fox, ( ) 2,,, ( 3), 0 ~ 5 (P < 0.05) >0.54, P < Fig. 1 Fig. 2 Hairtail catches and fishing effort in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea from 1956 to Residual variations of hairtail catches in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea 1,,

4 Fig. 3 Interannual variations of the climatic variables from 1951 to 2006 Tab. 1 表 1 带鱼渔获量年间变动与气候变量多元线性回归方程中的偏相关分析 Partial correlations between variations of hairtail catches and the climatic variables in multivariate linear regression equation climatic variable ( /a) partial correlation coefficient (time lag) winter wind speeds in Bohai Sea 0.51(1) 0.00 summer wind speeds in Bohai Sea 0.47(4); 0.42(5) 0.01 summer wind speed in the East China Sea 0.45(0); 0.49(2) 0.00 sea surface temperature in the Yellow Sea 0.60(1); 0.64(3) 0.00 winter wind speed in the Yellow Sea 0.57(1) 0.00 summer wind speed in the Yellow Sea 0.32(3) 0.04 annual precipitation in Yellow River Valley and coastal region of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea 0.52(1); 0.47(2); 0.38(3) 0.01 P

5 6 : ,, SPSS,,, 0.95, 99% ( 1) 3 3.1,, % [12] , kw kw,, 1968, ; , kw kw,, ; , kw kw,, ; 1993,, kw,, t, kw [12],, 20 60, [13] 80,,, [12 14] 3.2, 黄河流域和黄渤海沿岸降雨 [15] (P<0.02),,,,, , t, PO 4 -P t, t [16] NH 3 NO X, [17] [18],,,,, 季风影响, 6 8, 10 3, [17, 19] (P<0.02),,,,, [20]

6 ,, a,,, [21] (P<0.01),,,,,,, [22],, (P<0.05),, [23],, (P<0.01),,,,, [24] 水温, [25] (P<0.01), 珅 [26] (32 36 N),,,,,, [27] [4] FISH BIOENERGETICS MODEL 2 3.3, [28] (R=0.95, P<0.01),, [29], 20 70, [30], [31], IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 50,, [32],,

7 6 : , Fox, (P<0.01), (P<0.02), (P<0.05), ;, ;,,,, (P<0.01),,,, 参考文献 : [1], 絪. [M]., 1991: [2]. [M]. :, 1991: [3]. [M]. :, : [4]. [J]., 2000, 21 (4): 1 5. [5],,. [J]., 1999, 18 ( 4 ): [6] FAO. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2010[R]. Rome, FAO. 2010, [7] Chang I Z, Jae B L, Suam K, et al. Climatic regime shifts and their impacts on marine ecosystem and fisheries resources in Korean waters[j]. Prog Oceanogr, 2000, 47: [8] Qiu Y S, Wang Y Z, Chen Z Z. Runoff- and monsoon-driven variability of fish production in East China Seas [J]. Estuar Coastal Shelf Sci, 2008, 77: [9] Cardone V J, Greenwood J G, Cane M A. On trends in historical marine wind data [J]. J Clim, 1990, 3: [10] Kent E C, Taylor P K. Toward estimating climatic trends in SST. Part I: methods of measurement [J]. J Atmos Ocean- Technol, 2006, 23: [11]. [M]. :, 1995: [12],,,. [R]., 2002: [13]. [M]., 1996: [14]. [M]., 1985: [15],,,. [J] , 6: [16],. [J]., 1997, 16(3): [17],. Ⅰ [M]., 2000: [18],,. [J]. :, 2004, 23 (1): [19],,,. [M]., 1993: [20] Lin C L, Su J L, Xu B R, et al. Long-term variations of temperature and salinity of Bohai Sea and their influence on its ecosystem [J]. Prog Oceanogr, 2001, 49: [21],. Ⅱ [M]. :, 2002: [22] Lie H J, Cho C H, Lee J H, et al. Does the Yellow Sea Warm Current really exist as a persistent mean flow? [J] J Geophys Res, 2001, 106 (C10): [23],. [J]., 2009, 31 (2): 1 6. [24],,,. [M]., 2007: [25]. [M]. :, 2004: [26],,.

8 [J]., 2004, 26(5): [27]. [M]. :, 1980: [28],,,. [J] , 30(4): [29] Dai A G, Trenberth K T, Qian T T A global dataset of Palmer drought severity index for relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming [J] J Hydrom, 2004, 5: l117 l130. [30]. [J]., 2005, 48(6): [31],,,. (I) [J] , 2(1): 3 8. [32] IPCC. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007[R]. Switzerland: Geneva, 2007: 104. Analysis on responses of hairtail catches to fishing and climate factors in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, China WANG Yuezhong 1,2, SUN Dianrong 1, LIN Zhaojin 1, WANG Xuehui 1, JIA Xiaoping 1 1. Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of South China Sea Fishery Resources & Environments, Ministry of Agriculture; South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou , China; 2. College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai , China Abstract: Changes in fish harvest are not only impacted by fishing, but also influenced by climate variability. Based on data of hairtail catches between 1956 and 2006 in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, China, the responses of catches to fishing and climate factors were analyzed. The catch time series can be compartmentalized into an inter-annual trend and variations. The inter-annual trend was mainly attributed to growth in fishing efforts. This was suggested by highly significant regression of hairtail catches to fishing effort fitted by the Fox model (P<0.01). After the catch trend was removed, there were positive partial correlations (P<0.02) of the residual variations in catches to winter wind speed in the Yellow Sea, summer wind speed in the East China Sea, and annual precipitation in Yellow River Valley and the coastal region of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, whereas the partial correlations to sea surface temperature and summer wind speed in the Yellow Sea, as well as summer and winter wind speeds in the Bohai Sea were negative (P<0.05). The linkage suggests that the climate factors govern the hairtail catch variations. It was inferred that runoff input nutrients to the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, while monsoons controlled the transport and distribution of the nutrients, and these processes can have impacts on the primary productivity. Changes in water temperature could also directly affect the growth, feeding, spawning, and migration of the fish, and thus, influence the fish population size. The hairtail catch time series can be jointly fitted by fishing effort and climatic factors (P<0.01), suggesting that, in addition to fishing, climate factors can significantly influence the hairtail catches. In the context of global warming, it was projected that the future climate changes would lead to reduction in hairtail production in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, and the hairtail catch variations would become even greater. Key words: hairtail catches; fishing effect; climate factor; Yellow Sea; Bohai Sea Corresponding author: JIA Xiaoping. wuhu30@sohu.com