Valuing Beach Closures in Damage Assessment: An Application to the Texas Gulf Coast

Transcription

1 Valuing Beach Closures in Damage Assessment: An Application to the Texas Gulf Coast George R. Parsons Ami Kang November 14, 2007 Clean Gulf Workshop Tampa, FL Acknowledgement Funding for this project was provided by the Coastal Response Research Center 1

2 Purpose & Method Purpose Value beach closures for damage assessment Monetary and Non-Monetary Terms Apply to Texas Coast with focus on Padre Island National Seashore Method Random Utility Model Infer Values from observed behavior 3 Study Area 4 2

3 Household Survey Variable Mean or % of Sample (Adjusted for Stratification) Phon -Phone Survey of Beach Use N = 884 Monthly from May - September Stratified Trip data Demographic data Age 41 years Yes/No Dichotomous Variables: Work Fulltime 62% Children Over 17 49% High School 32% College 24% Graduate School 10% Retire 9% Spanish 9% Female 60% Own a Boat 24% Own a Pool 24% Own Fishing Equipment 49% Own Property Near Coast 7% 5 Stratification QuickTime and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. 6 3

4 Trip Frequencies Percent Number of Trips (Adjusted for Stratification) 1 41% 2 24% 3 9% 4 7% 5 6% 6 3% 7 3% > 7 7% Percent Travel Mileage (Adjusted for Stratification) Less Than 5 Miles 8% % % % % % % Greater Than 300 Miles 1% 7 The Beaches 65 Beaches & Characteristic Data Field Trip, State Access Guide, Interviews QuickTime and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. 8 4

5 Beach Characteristic Data Mean or % Site Variables of Beaches Beach length (mileage) 5.35 Dichotomous Yes/No Variables: Percent Gulf access Beach is located on the gulf (not bay) 74% State park Beach is part of a state park 6% Remote Beach has a remote location 34% Vehicle free Vehicles not allowed on beach 40% Manual cleaning Beach is routinely manually cleaned 51% Machine cleaning Beach is routinely machined cleaned 55% Rest room Restrooms located at beach 57% Lifeguards Lifeguards at beach 26% Concession Concession located at beach 23% No fishing Not listed as a fishing area in 2002 Texas 5% Beach & Bay Access Guide No swimming Not listed as a swimming area in % Texas Beach & Bay Access Guide Red tide history Beach has a recent history of red tide 18% Advisory/Closure history Beach has a recent history of closures and/or advisories 17% 9 Beach Visits by Beach Weighted Visits Sabine Pass Galveston Freeport Port Corpus Lavaca Christi PINS South Padre Island 5

6 Random Utility Model (Or Choice Model) Each person has a trip utility for each site (i) and a no-trip utility in each choice occasion in the season: U i,y;, i ) ~ site utility (i 1,..., 65) U 0 (y) ~ no trip utility x i ~ vector of site characteristics y ~ vector of individual characteristics ~ parameter vector to be estimated i ~ error term Individuals are assumed to have chosen site with the highest utility. So an individual chooses site k if U k,y;, i ){U 0 (y n ;, 0 ) and U ni,y n ;, i ) for all i} 11 Estimation From the researcherõsperspective the choice of site is a stochastic event with probability pr{k} pr{u k,y;, i )[U 0 (y;, 0 )andu i,y;, i )for Under carefully chosen assumptions about the distribution of the error terms one get closed form expressions for the probability. The most well know being the logit form U pr{k} k,y;) U 0 (y;) i U i,y;) Form likelihood function and choose parameters to maximum its value U () knt,y nt ;) n1 i0 t1 U 0nt (y;) int R U i,y nt ;) nit 12 6

7 Welfare Analysis Once estimated we can retrieve the parameters from the model and form an expression for the expected utility of a choice occasion. A common form (again from the logit) is EU log{u 0 (y n ;) U i ;)} 65 i1 To evaluate site closures we consider this expression will all sites included and Padre (or other sites) exclude Padre Sites Closed 65 W log{u 0 (y n ;) U i ;)} log{u 0 (y n ;) U i ;)}/ tc i1 59 i1 Marginal Utility of Income 13 Coefficient Estimates Variable Estimate Coefficients t-statistic Site Characteristics (site utility): Trip Cost Trip Time Trip Time * Income Log Length Gulf access State park Remote Vehicle free Manual cleaning Machine cleaning Rest room Lifeguards Concession No fishing No swimming Red tide history Advisory/Closure history May*padre June*padre July*Padre August*Padre Sept*Padre Individual Characteristics (no-tip utility): No-Trip Constant Weekend Kids Log Age Retired Spanish High School College Graduate Schoo l Full Time Job Female Cottage Boat Pool FishingEquipment June July August September

8 Welfare Estimates Loss of Six Padre Beaches Per Day Number of Trips Total Loss Per Trip Loss Displaced Weekday May $35,669 $28 1,290 June 62, ,224 July 165, ,645 August 18, September 93, ,212 Weekend May $109,514 $28 3,930 June 192, ,776 July 503, ,799 August 58, ,154 September 295, , Non-monetary Compensation KH Index/ May Weekend 14 Kaldor Hicks Index Percentage of People with Full Compensation/ May Weekend # of Beach with NEW Machine Cleaning Service 60 % # of Beach with NEW Machine Cleaning Service 8